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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,421
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:02am Jan 15, 2008 9:02am
Hi all,

As we know the Euro and the Pound have been diverging in price for a while now, causing the EURGBP to tear upwards. However the pound today has made a very solid recovery today from a decent base of support.

If we look at the EURGBP chart this has precipitated into a "correction" to the 7750 level which looks like nice support on the 4HR. (Just look at the awesome CT divergence trade that setup from the top).

With the Euro looking strong but at a zone of high resistance could we be in for a nice ride down on EURGBP if the pound revives from its slumber?

Any thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #10,422
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:05am Jan 15, 2008 9:05am
Quoting don_tgomez
Hi,

Study the E/U chart. Will i be right to say that is a break in the price level which has served as a resistance line for some days now?

Should we expect a retracement back to that level and wait for that jto happen and hopefully expect price to go up to the 1.4967 high of Nov 23?

Please any observation.

P.S. TC on MACD and price bounce off 21EMA according to rhytm.
In my opinion the "price level" you mentioned has just moved higher with the trendline that is still acting as a strong resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart2.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #10,423
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:10am Jan 15, 2008 9:10am
Quoting Ted1983
Hi all,

With the Euro looking strong but at a zone of high resistance could we be in for a nice ride down on EURGBP if the pound revives from its slumber?

Any thoughts?
It could also bounce off the 21, I could always be wrong...
  • #10,424
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:16am Jan 15, 2008 9:16am
My trade doesn't look too good already. Though it is a small lot
  • #10,425
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:33am Jan 15, 2008 9:33am
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf EurUsd.pdf   127 KB | 981 downloads
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 15 Jan2008.zip   804 KB | 997 downloads
  • #10,426
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:40am Jan 15, 2008 9:40am
went long on 50% retracement with a small stoploss below 8ema and previous larg H1 candle

edit : sl hitted very fast
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud1.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #10,427
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:00am Jan 15, 2008 10:00am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info
Closed my trade -35 .
I have different MACD than yours. I think i will stick with the same version as yours. Because mine got the MACD bought signal 1 hour ago.
  • #10,428
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:00am Jan 15, 2008 10:00am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info
Good wrapup, I had already taken half profit on the top trendline and moved to BE on the rest of the trade. The stop has now been hit and Im out.

I originally planned to short if 4900 didnt get broken on 4h and it hasnt but price has flown down with a massive red candle on the 1H and I would only short now on retrace but as Im away from now till tommorow I don't think I will do anything.
  • #10,429
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:05am Jan 15, 2008 10:05am
Quoting hijackxx@hotmai
Closed my trade -35 .
I have different MACD than yours. I think i will stick with the same version as yours. Because mine got the MACD bought signal 1 hour ago.
u have different time on ur platform not different macd.

phillip: my H4 closing time is same as u .but i had a TC signal on 4:00, u can see on my chart. maybe just one pip cause that.BUT IMPORTANT:may be we shouold not trust on macd signals which made by just one ore 2 pips?
  • #10,430
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:19am Jan 15, 2008 10:19am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info
just finished listening to the mp3. Made me feel much better when i hear your voice ..
ended the day with + pips.
why should i be mad
  • #10,431
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:28am Jan 15, 2008 10:28am
Quoting bshadroo
u have different time on ur platform not different macd.

phillip: my H4 closing time is same as u .but i had a TC signal on 4:00, u can see on my chart. maybe just one pip cause that.BUT IMPORTANT:may be we shouold not trust on macd signals which made by just one ore 2 pips?
Could be that 1pip turned it green. The main focus should still be on the surroundings. Support/resistance lines. Major price leves etc. Today EurUsd was a difficult one. News was bad and it went up and then down like a rocket. I really believed that 1.4900 was going to hold but with such bad news I dont know what happened. Maybe Pips can help us.
  • #10,432
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:31am Jan 15, 2008 10:31am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Could be that 1pip turned it green. The main focus should still be on the surroundings. Support/resistance lines. Major price leves etc. Today EurUsd was a difficult one. News was bad and it went up and then down like a rocket. I really believed that 1.4900 was going to hold but with such bad news I dont know what happened. Maybe Pips can help us.
thx for quick answer.i went short after that huge red H1 (on your another great system(m5))and made a quick 19pips (1.4857 to 1.4838, i beleive it can break today's low also)
thanks phillip ,thx golfer
  • #10,433
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:49am Jan 15, 2008 10:49am
Quoting bshadroo
thx for quick answer.i went short after that huge red H1 (on your another great system(m5))and made a quick 19pips (1.4857 to 1.4838, i beleive it can break today's low also)
thanks phillip ,thx golfer
I also made a couple on this last run.
  • #10,434
  • Edited 12:07pm Jan 15, 2008 11:12am | Edited 12:07pm
Hello,

As you might have realized I haven't posted any trades since
christmas until now. ... simply because none of the trades
have been strictly 4hmacd system. and probably also because
I didn't take my trades that serious. I was playing around.
I was trading with small sizes and the more playful I traded
the more I've lost. Of course, I always have the 4hmacd-system-rules
in mind when looking at a chart, but somehow I started thinking
"what if ..." There is a thrill to forex trading .
I remember Ryan saying something like "if you want excitement go find it
outside, not in forex." A difficult and important task.
Honestly, who doesn't feel excitment or emotional reaction when trading?

I guess the time is right to get back to serious and disciplined trading,
second week of the new year, as Phillip mentioned.
Yesterday and today I made some nice profits on eur/usd long,
usd/chf short and currently aud/usd short. I have taken loss on
usd/cad long on which I have taken the TC.
For the ones that have been long on gbp/usd today: Congratulations!

Let's prepare for good market rhythm and positive pips.


Regards
  • #10,435
  • Jan 15, 2008 11:16am Jan 15, 2008 11:16am
Hi,

I took this RB on U/J today and made my first 20 pips on live trade. This was based on the market rhytm andemotion. pullback to 8MA on 4hr and quasi tweezer bottom candle formation on 4hr TF.

Entry: 106.83
SL: 106.57
TP: 107.03

Thanks a lot for this great system.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: phil3.gif Size: 16 KB
"Forex is like a bitch every trader must marry one"
  • #10,436
  • Jan 15, 2008 1:17pm Jan 15, 2008 1:17pm
Here is a written copy for today's wrapup, see post 10426 for the pdf. file.

Phillip thank you again for your hard work. I kept asking myself a question about E/U set up, and also came to the conclusion that 1.4900 is strong resistance, we should wait for the real breakout and then a pull back. It's nice that you confirmed my thoughts.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Daily wrapup for the 15th of January post 10426.doc   31 KB | 545 downloads
  • #10,437
  • Jan 15, 2008 2:38pm Jan 15, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting don_tgomez
Hi,

I took this RB on U/J today and made my first 20 pips on live trade. This was based on the market rhytm andemotion. pullback to 8MA on 4hr and quasi tweezer bottom candle formation on 4hr TF.

Entry: 106.83
SL: 106.57
TP: 107.03

Thanks a lot for this great system.
Congratulation to your first trade!
Even if I personally think it was a risky trade to be your "first time"... you never forget your first! Just an advice, do not marry the bitch
  • #10,438
  • Jan 15, 2008 4:14pm Jan 15, 2008 4:14pm
Hi there,

According to the rule when price breaks above the 21MA in a downtrend, it tends to pull back to the 21MA and then it goes to the 89MA. But here it breaks above the 21 and moves to the 89 and now a pullback to the 21.
Should we expect price to break below the 21 and continue its downtrend?
Will this not negate the rule?
Please advice?

Chart below G/U
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: phil4.gif Size: 20 KB
"Forex is like a bitch every trader must marry one"
  • #10,439
  • Jan 15, 2008 4:47pm Jan 15, 2008 4:47pm
made a bad decision today and lost 10% of my account. Was long the Euro and when the big green candle turned into a big red tail I didn't get out like I should have. Then I absolutely "knew" it would not break the 21. Such a rookie mistake. I'm very very dissapointed in myself, my lack of discipline, or even maturity.

I hope you all can take something from this and not do the same thing.

Merritt
"The market pays you to be disciplined"
  • #10,440
  • Jan 15, 2008 4:55pm Jan 15, 2008 4:55pm
I was away from the office allllll daaaaay today. This was a last minute thing that forced me to leave, speaking of forced...

Here's a loss I took today on the EURGBP chart I posted yesterday. I was immediately excited when I saw the chart and how the price tested the 21 and returned to the upside. And lookee lookee, price made its way back down there again and I was thinking, here it goes...Line #6...I see the price at the 21 so go to the 1hr and take a look, there was one bull candle on the 1hr but no follow through with the price action. This is very important when trying to get in early. I forced the entry because I knew I was going to be gone all day. I was thinking, there's the bull bar so price will follow through. Put the order in with a SL and profit target and got bit for my...what's that word that I stress in about every post....hmmm, uh...patience...but in this case my impatience. I was fortunate enough to only put one lot on the table because I knew I was going to be gone all day. I like to manage the positions along the way. Anyway, here's the 4hr chart with the vertical bars running through the previous tests to the 21. Also, I pieced together the 1hr chart clips when the 4hr hit the 21. Notice on the first five there is always a follow through with the price action. On the last test, #6, price never follows through back to the upside....

It's been a long day...I'll try to get back here this evening...
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