Elliott Wave Counting with EG

EURUSD Charts

EURUSD topping at 1.4921 last night then tumbling down to 1.4775 now...... tht was a huge fall.

This was the scenario I found on my chart when I got up this morning after I left my trade running last night during the US session. Trade running was the trade entered the previous day which got dragged down right after I entered it and saw it recover and turn slightly positive during the News last night. Then I left it to RUN only to find it back and in a deeper pit right now.

It was very tempting to add on to my position last night and re-enter my GBPUSD Long after the news as that looked very encouraging to my GBPUSD and EURUSD Long trades. But I held back trying to practice self control.... and that did it. I was able to sleep and not have to watch my trades.

now... 4hr chart for EURUSD attached shows several Support lines in Magenta and the final one is Yellow. EW count would show that wave 3 looks like it has already been achieved @ 1.4921. This fall may be considered as corrective wave 4.

Although it has already overlapped with wave 1 and 2, it may still be viable as wave 4 if what is developing is an ending diagonal wave 5 to follow wave 4 of this decline.

Another alternative count is to consider tha finished 123 as an abc instead for the wave B of bigger wave 4 in a FLAT corrective wave in the Daily chart.

And EURUSD may be headed back to 1.4309 or lower.

Right now I am still holding my long trade from 1.4903

EG

This alternative count could see EURUSD in a further sideways expanding corrective wave on the Daily.

which could bring it back to
1.4309 or lower like
1.4235
1.3985
1.3840
1.3581

See attached chart for this alternative scenario.

EG

or could this wave 4 corrective wave for an ending diagonal wave 5 of a higher degree be over?

EG

Looking at this 30min chart having:

double bottom at 1.4774
Zigzag 3 wave structure

A breach/piercing @ 1.4850 could indicate some more upward move. But a break ( which is a candle opening and closing above that would find greater probability of Bulls being back for this pair.

However, a pierce or a break @ 1.4774 could signal more trouble for the bulls as this would mean a 5 wave decline has has been seen and we could see a 3 wave pu;;;back Up then it would be followed by a much larger fall for a wave C or a wave 3.

EG

Here is something I picked up from the Trading room where LTC has his EW Thread.

I did not realize this set up till he brought it up there.

So aside from my alternative counts which are now dwarfed by what he proposed, This EURUSD fall from last night could actually be wave 2 inside a bigger wave 3.

My retrace levels are at
50% @ 1.4780
61.8% @ 1.4727
76.4% @ 1.4706
100% @ 1.4638

1.4638 is the maximum that wave 2 can retrace wave 1 so SL will be set @ 1.4637 or right below that Big wave 2.

Thank you Tim for sharing.

EG

wave 32 (wave 5 end of C) Potential levels are ticked on the chart:

261.8% @ 1.4761
300.0% @ 1.4750
425.0% @ 1.4713

EG

charts

EURUSD continues to recover from that fall from 1.4921

Taking the wave 2 inside a big wave 3 direction:
- 1st I considered this first leg going up as the wave 4. However it has now overlapped with my wave 1.

But looking at the internal structure, price @ 1.4850 has probably topped a wave c inside wave 4 or a wave 3 for the pair to move on with recovery.

Currently 1.4851 is the is the FE 161.8 of A so it still fits into a wave C theory. Up till FE 176.8 @ 1.4856 for me is ok.

Although this wave 4 has already overlapped with wave 1, which is possible still for me if I expect an ending diagonal triangle to form as wave C.

But should this be a 123 instead of an abc, then a wave 4 pullback would be a good entry point for me to add to my Long trade.

Price has broken thru 1.4850 level. I completely missed that in the previous post above.

from 1.4921 down to 1.4774 is in 3 waves
then now price has breached 1.4850.

This is very likely now that EURUSD is back on the BULL trend.
So I am now considering the move up that has just transpired as a 123 of a sub 1 for wave 3 inside a bigger wave 3.

Looking for a wave 4 retrace now on the 15min chart.

EG

EURUSD

wave 2 was a Corretive FLAT. expecting wave 4 to be a zigzag or a triangle based on the rule of altrernation.

EG

watch the symmetrical triangle form with its 33333 5-wave structure.

wave 5 up on this 5min chart is potentially the height of the triangle positioned where the breakout is expected.

possible wave 5 end is at 1.4876.

Then a wave 2 retrace is expected in this time frame which I would look forward to towards 1.4813 / 25.

EG

wow I was faked there...

I was looking at for the completion of a triangle which looked perfect
then thought it was just a throwunder
then now it looks like the Zigzag option which is still valid

for the zigzag to play out, maximum is at 1.814/10 which is FE 161.8 - 176.8

I exited my short trade at a loss while at the bottom of the triangle for what was supposed to be the last leg of the 5 wave structure.

Entry for LONG should have been at the breakout to the upside of the triangle.

But since this is a zigzag now, it is now I believe a good time to enter a Long trade on EURUSD. SL 1 pip below origin of wave 1 ( 1.4774) which is
@ 1.4773

EG

why 1.47743?

that is because 1.4774 is the origin of this 5 wave structure which is thought to be developing in the 5min chart. So when the 5 wave structure is finished, then it is considered as a wave 1 which is expected to be retraced by wave 2 by a maximum of 100%.

so it is still valid till 1.4774. while if it goes under to 1.4773, that means, the assumption that price is in the beginning of a wave 3 inside a bigger wave 3 is invalidated.

1.4774 then cannot be considered as wave 32 in my chart. A much deeper correction must be in the offing. I might just have to go back to my earlier assumptions. But for now, I will stick with this.

EG

Wave 2 inside a bigger wave 3 wave count was invalidate with the breach and finally breakout to the downside of 1.4774. So set aside the wave 3.1 and 3.2 wave count.

I got stopped out on that one.

So I am back to one of my earlier premises this morning that this could be a wave 4 from 1.4921. Although we now see an overlap with wave 1 and wave 2. This first possibility of being a wave 4 stems from a fib projection using
0 = 1.4921
1 = 1.4775
2 = 1.4850
and using FIB Extention tool. We get FE 61.8 @ 1.4767 ( which is a minimum for a Zigzag Projection ) were price has currently bottomed after what looks like a 5 wave decline.

Next I would look for now is either a 5 wave advance or a 3 wave advance ( meaning going UP.

if a 5 wave advance ( going up ) follows, then Bulls are back.

However if a 3 wave advance follows now, then it is just a retracement and will be followed with the Bear trend again. That would bring this back to the scenario I presented on POST # 1583 for the end of wave C of a further expanding corrective wave 4 on the Daily Chart.

EG

I could not discern very well if this move up from 1.4768 is 3 or 5 wave structure.

trying it out for the 3 wave structure then applying the FIB Extention tool.... I get more than FE 261.8 way beyond the FE 161.8 that is in the guide.

So even if there was a sudden drop in the price towards 1.4782 I refrained from exiting my remaining long trade

because FIB Extention tool showed FE 261.8 which leads me to think that this is a 12345 ( 5 wave advance instead of a 3 wave advance (abc).

if this is a 5 wave advance, then there is a higher probability that the BULLS are back.

EG

PS. the FE 176.8 earlier in the 3 wave advance should have sent signals or caution signs to me about the still possibility that a 3 wave advance was still there.

And that the symmetrical triangle I thought was there had other alternatives. will discuss that later as part of cautions on alternative counts.

OK..

assuming that the move from 1.4768 up to 1.4816 is a 5 wave structure due to the FIB Extention tool results, then the following drop to 1.4777 is 76.8% retracement

.... I can not just classify it as wave 4 as it overlaps with wave 1. Besides the value if FE 261.8 normally is the wave 5 level. So I am assuming that a complete 5 wave impulse wave has been finished at 1.4816

and that the drop is a wave 2 which is a retracement of wave 1.

next is to consider the following points for assessing whether the new move up is an abc or a 12345

0 = 1.4768
1 = 1.4816
2 = 1.4777

things to look for is first a breech of resistance levels
@ 1.4816
@ 1.4825 FE 100.0
@ 1.4855 FE 161.8

EG

from above post....

2 levels of Resistance have already been breeched see in RED

things to look for is first a breech of resistance levels
@ 1.4816
@ 1.4825 FE 100.0
@ 1.4855 FE 161.8


Right now, a retrace by 50% is underway. If this goes lower than 1.4777, then a top for the 3 wave structure is in place at 1.4833 which is slightly above FE 100.0 for the last 3 points we used for the FIB Extention tool.

So... a value lower than 1.4777 means the beartrend is back and I will close my Long trades to shift to short trades .

EG

It is interesting to note that the move from 1.4768 going up to 1.4833 has just made a 61.8% retracement.

If I consider the upmove as a 5 wave structure impulse wave, then the 61.8% retrace may be considered as a wave 2.

so 1st... a breech of 1.4777 will possibly confirm the end of a 3 wave movement up

and a breech of 1.4768 will definitely confirm that that move up was just a corrective move and DEFINITELY price is now in a down trend no doubt.

But if price goes up again and breeches 1.4833, then I think the BULLS are back on the UPTREND. and a final confirmation of the BULL Trend will be a breeech of 1.4858

EG

EURUSD Down trend is confirmed by my EW Counts

EG