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Aussie Pairs

  • #1,901
  • Jan 15, 2008 8:07am Jan 15, 2008 8:07am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I guess AJ really wants that weekly EMA.
Break it baby break it.
Probably not as we're bouncing off DJIA support
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,902
  • Jan 15, 2008 8:35am Jan 15, 2008 8:35am
Quoting USDSEK
Apperently.
Don't you love when markets become absolutely irrational?

Citigroup reports a writedown we knew about for a LONG time and it causes panic?

The part that is a mystery to me is the USD and EUR strength when they both reported bad economic data today.

Take a look at EUR/AUD and EUR/NOK and there's no reason for those moves today other than panic.
  • #1,903
  • Jan 15, 2008 8:44am Jan 15, 2008 8:44am
You have to trade according to techs and fundies. Risk aversion, learn it.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,904
  • Jan 15, 2008 8:54am Jan 15, 2008 8:54am
Dutch, just curious do you see AUD/USD going down to Daily GANN which is around 0.8784
  • #1,905
  • Jan 15, 2008 8:57am Jan 15, 2008 8:57am
Quoting vinesh2
Dutch, just curious do you see AUD/USD going down to Daily GANN which is around 0.8784
if it breaks through 8876 its possible.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,906
  • Edited 9:14am Jan 15, 2008 9:03am | Edited 9:14am
Quoting DutchTrader
You have to trade according to techs and fundies. Risk aversion, learn it.
Made a ton of money on risk aversion this month, so you're preaching to the choir. Some of those EUR pairs recently broke through and settled on the other side of important Fib ranges, it was technical and today have reacted to nothing technical or fundamental other than risk aversion which doesn't normally account for such a large move in these specific pairs. As for fundamental, the Citi news was known and reported before today and the US retail news was known to be bad.

I'm willing to bet that the EUR/xxx pairs all drop through the rest of the week after today since today's movements were overdone.

Then again.. gold is falling off a cliff as I'm typing this, so AUD may be toast. If oil does the same, look out below for commodity currencies.
  • #1,907
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:38am Jan 15, 2008 9:38am
Quoting youalreadykn
Made a ton of money on risk aversion this month, so you're preaching to the choir. Some of those EUR pairs recently broke through and settled on the other side of important Fib ranges, it was technical and today have reacted to nothing technical or fundamental other than risk aversion which doesn't normally account for such a large move in these specific pairs. As for fundamental, the Citi news was known and reported before today and the US retail news was known to be bad.

I'm willing to bet that the EUR/xxx pairs all drop through the rest of the week after today since today's movements were overdone.

Then again.. gold is falling off a cliff as I'm typing this, so AUD may be toast. If oil does the same, look out below for commodity currencies.
I think today was a particularly harsh day with Citi and US fundamentals data coming in horrible. Double whammy if you will. I'm looking for Cad, Aud and Nzd action again tonight. Either corrective or a continuation of this unwinding.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,908
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:51am Jan 15, 2008 9:51am
Quoting DutchTrader
I think today was a particularly harsh day with Citi and US fundamentals data coming in horrible. Double whammy if you will. I'm looking for Cad, Aud and Nzd action again tonight. Either corrective or a continuation of this unwinding.
I shorted NZD/CHF and AUD/CHF this morning. Over 90 pips so far. Imvho, the sell off should continue.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #1,909
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:59am Jan 15, 2008 9:59am
Quoting Ash
I shorted NZD/CHF and AUD/CHF this morning. Over 90 pips so far. Imvho, the sell off should continue.

I'm AJ, NJ and EA will continue to keep them as they're in the black for the day. Gotta go register for classes.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,910
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:01am Jan 15, 2008 10:01am
Quoting DutchTrader
I'm AJ, NJ and EA will continue to keep them as they're in the black for the day. Gotta go register for classes.

Good Luck!
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #1,911
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:29am Jan 15, 2008 10:29am
Quoting youalreadykn
Don't you love when markets become absolutely irrational?

Citigroup reports a writedown we knew about for a LONG time and it causes panic?

The part that is a mystery to me is the USD and EUR strength when they both reported bad economic data today.

Take a look at EUR/AUD and EUR/NOK and there's no reason for those moves today other than panic.
Actually this only shows me that I still have a lot to learn about the aussies.
On the positive side it is only the beginning of the week.This move in AUD/USD may still have an upside.
There are no certainties only oppurtunities.
  • #1,912
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:49am Jan 15, 2008 10:49am
Quoting USDSEK
Actually this only shows me that I still have a lot to learn about the aussies.
On the positive side it is only the beginning of the week.This move in AUD/USD may still have an upside.
I'm doubtful of any and all xxx/USD upside before the rate announcement. I think AUD/USD will eventually reach the old highs, but not in this wave up. My comments were more focused on the EUR/AUD rise.

USD has a priced in 50-75bps rate cut for this month, so IMO it's going to bounce just like in December because investors are expecting too much.

EUR has a priced in possible rate hike and I see no way for them to increase rates in the current environment. So how is EUR going up so far against pairs like AUD on a day where bad economic news comes out of Germany? Risk aversion is the reason, but it seemed way overdone.

After that post, EUR/AUD is back down 50 pips though so obviously it was overdone. EUR/NOK and other pairs are still waiting on a retrace though.
  • #1,913
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:55am Jan 15, 2008 10:55am
EUR should go down this year according to several UBS insiders, WHEN it starts to go down is the question. AND do you TRUST UBS is the other question.
Just Trade It
  • #1,914
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:58am Jan 15, 2008 10:58am
youalreadykn,

do you trade the EUR/AUD?

Btw, there is what seems to be an engulfing pattern contest between the bears and bulls on the AUD/USD. Watch out for that one. These kinds of power matches are usually followed by large and aggressive movement by which ever side wins the engulfing match. EUR/AUD went through the same thing in September 07.

rudenstein
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: engulf.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: engulf002.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #1,915
  • Jan 15, 2008 11:44am Jan 15, 2008 11:44am
I don't trade EUR/AUD, but I trade other EUR/xxx pairs. I mainly use EUR/AUD as an indicator for sentiment to use when trading other EUR or AUD pairs.

Interesting longterm chart on EUR/AUD though and a breakout does seem likely in the near future.
  • #1,916
  • Jan 15, 2008 12:20pm Jan 15, 2008 12:20pm
AJ testing triangle
Just Trade It
  • #1,917
  • Jan 15, 2008 12:25pm Jan 15, 2008 12:25pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
AJ testing triangle
Yep, I placed a stop right at the 94.71 handle we're 2 pips below that now. NICE!!
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,918
  • Jan 15, 2008 12:46pm Jan 15, 2008 12:46pm
Closed my AJ for 1242 pips.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #1,919
  • Jan 15, 2008 12:52pm Jan 15, 2008 12:52pm
Quoting Ash
Closed my AJ for 1242 pips.
Great job on the pips but why close it? We have alot more bottom. Maybe.
Just Trade It
  • #1,920
  • Jan 15, 2008 12:57pm Jan 15, 2008 12:57pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Great job on the pips but why close it? We have alot more bottom. Maybe.
Yep, I'm aiming for the 200ema.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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