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  • #3,641
  • Jan 14, 2008 5:04am Jan 14, 2008 5:04am
dears, friends it is possible that the market go to 14812/800? why not? because the trending is changing
  • #3,642
  • Jan 14, 2008 7:59am Jan 14, 2008 7:59am
Take a look at the chart below.

Double top or break out?

The fib in the pic retraced to 38 then headed north.

That's a sign of strength but I'd be willing to bet some longer term players are shorting this top.

I'd wait for some kind of confirmation.

My guess... a breakout to new highs but I'll be on the side lines until then...just like T.O.
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  • #3,643
  • Jan 14, 2008 9:08am Jan 14, 2008 9:08am
Quoting acumen
Take a look at the chart below.

Double top or break out?

The fib in the pic retraced to 38 then headed north.

That's a sign of strength but I'd be willing to bet some longer term players are shorting this top.

I'd wait for some kind of confirmation.

My guess... a breakout to new highs but I'll be on the side lines until then...just like T.O.
I see you do have a good graph their. A double top is potential especially if their is a downside movement in the next couple of days. But since we are only about 100+ pips away from making a new all time high , it will be very desirable for people to drive this pair to the 1.5000 area again.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #3,644
  • Jan 14, 2008 9:22am Jan 14, 2008 9:22am
I don't do long term but if it does break to the upside...

A fib projection for profit taking at 1.6000 wouldn't surprise me. (Based on a 161.8 projection)

Time will tell.
  • #3,645
  • Jan 14, 2008 11:17am Jan 14, 2008 11:17am
Eur/Usd 1 hr fib.
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  • #3,646
  • Jan 14, 2008 11:28am Jan 14, 2008 11:28am
1 hr with most recent fib.
Also, the daily with an inverse h/s pattern. It may dip to the 4820 area or more before breaking the neck line.
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  • #3,647
  • Jan 14, 2008 11:36am Jan 14, 2008 11:36am
Quoting PipChick
1 hr with most recent fib.
Also, the daily with an inverse h/s pattern. It may dip to the 4820 area or more before breaking the neck line.
I was missing that H&S

Thanks for bringing it up

Target is what? 1.53 give or take?
  • #3,648
  • Jan 14, 2008 11:40am Jan 14, 2008 11:40am
Quoting cesarnc
I was missing that H&S

Thanks for bringing it up

Target is what? 1.53 give or take?
Exactly. SO I will be watching it during eur session tonight for a possible buy around 4820.

Have to be careful when it gets to the 4820 area becasue it may need to come down more in order to gather steam to break the NL. Depends on data releases too.
  • #3,649
  • Jan 14, 2008 12:08pm Jan 14, 2008 12:08pm
Quoting PipChick
Exactly. SO I will be watching it during eur session tonight for a possible buy around 4820.

Have to be careful when it gets to the 4820 area becasue it may need to come down more in order to gather steam to break the NL. Depends on data releases too.

hey pc i still see upside here for short term... what do u think? buy at 4761? maybe???? lets swee how it goes....
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  • #3,650
  • Jan 14, 2008 12:11pm Jan 14, 2008 12:11pm
Quoting PipChick
Exactly. SO I will be watching it during eur session tonight for a possible buy around 4820.

Have to be careful when it gets to the 4820 area becasue it may need to come down more in order to gather steam to break the NL. Depends on data releases too.
That's a good idea. As is buying break of today's high tomorrow. May the US news give the push
  • #3,651
  • Jan 14, 2008 4:56pm Jan 14, 2008 4:56pm
Quoting acidguy
its crazy, 1 man.

totally whipping out and sending to dust the $ ,one time almighty currency.

his name = TRICHET -> converting americans into poors, making perform dollar worse than even a 3rd world currency. sad.
If Trichet don't do it, the Americans will do it themselves ... LOL
  • #3,652
  • Jan 14, 2008 5:02pm Jan 14, 2008 5:02pm
In the longterm, Gisele may be right. I can't see the US come up with enough good data to prevent Euro from clearing 1.50 (and it's about time).
  • #3,653
  • Jan 14, 2008 5:50pm Jan 14, 2008 5:50pm
I know I may be utterly wrong here, but the more I read about the Euro and the more I see traders almost take it for granted that 1.50 is in the cards.

Just think about this for one second:

if we are "only" 100 pips away from 1.50...and 1.50 MUST BE TESTED before we go down..."it acts like a magnete"...etc...

Why aren't we at 1.50 yet???

Why don't we all just get long and collect the free 100 pips?

It just seems so obvious to me that we are going to 1.50. Everyone is thinking about what to do when we finally reach 1.50. Are we going to 1.60? Are we going to pull back a little?

What if we don't go to 1.50? What is the plan then?
  • #3,654
  • Jan 14, 2008 5:53pm Jan 14, 2008 5:53pm
Quoting ItalianSharp
I know I may be utterly wrong here, but the more I read about the Euro and the more I see traders almost take it for granted that 1.50 is in the cards.

Just think about this for one second:

if we are "only" 100 pips away from 1.50...and 1.50 MUST BE TESTED before we go down..."it acts like a magnete"...etc...

Why aren't we at 1.50 yet???

Why don't we all just get long and collect the free 100 pips?

It just seems so obvious to me that we are going to 1.50. Everyone is thinking about what to do when we finally reach 1.50. Are we going to 1.60? Are we going to pull back a little?

What if we don't go to 1.50? What is the plan then?
It's only a free 100 pips if you're willing to risk many hundreds more to get that 100 pips.
I've been long since 1.47 and wouldn't think of adding a long right now.
  • #3,655
  • Jan 14, 2008 6:31pm Jan 14, 2008 6:31pm
Quoting ItalianSharp
I know I may be utterly wrong here, but the more I read about the Euro and the more I see traders almost take it for granted that 1.50 is in the cards.

Just think about this for one second:

if we are "only" 100 pips away from 1.50...and 1.50 MUST BE TESTED before we go down..."it acts like a magnete"...etc...

Why aren't we at 1.50 yet???

Why don't we all just get long and collect the free 100 pips?

It just seems so obvious to me that we are going to 1.50. Everyone is thinking about what to do when we finally reach 1.50. Are we going to 1.60? Are we going to pull back a little?

What if we don't go to 1.50? What is the plan then?
lol

My sentiments exactly. Seems like the easy trade in the world, you'd think. But I am not trading to make my life easy, I guess...lol
  • #3,656
  • Jan 14, 2008 7:11pm Jan 14, 2008 7:11pm
Looks like we have tested the upper limits of this pair, and it seems like their are resistance levels of 1.4910 and 1.4880. With this in mind and trading towards the lows of the day, I predict that we will be seeing a push higher to test these resistance levels. With negitive news commin in for the EUR we may see a push higher in this pair. Supports are comming in at 1.4865 and 1.4820 on the down side.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #3,657
  • Jan 15, 2008 12:04am Jan 15, 2008 12:04am
Watching for a POSSIBLE bounce at the 4820 area.
  • #3,658
  • Jan 15, 2008 12:27am Jan 15, 2008 12:27am
omg, if its break 1.4820 this thing goes way down...

we as a traders have to know why these things happens...
germany has just comented growth is slashed from 2.9% to 2.5%.
after the report euro started loosing. next victim is chf today.

anyway....
investors are making the idea Trichet is like a dog who barks but not bite.
1.50 is looking every minute more far away, in the fundamental way.
probable could be offset by really weak report from usa today, but maybe there is a surprise hidden there, the PPI???.

remember the last drop to 1.43???
a surprise, traders were ready to launch it straight to 1.50.
if there is a surprise and goes big the way down, even with a 50 rate cut from fed. euro could lack strenght in the technical way, a big head shoulders pattern in the weekly to the downside. + ecb would be close to do the same as capitals flow to usa again.

+ another thing is BNP Paribas, today reported to their investors dont make big bets in the euro and better get into aussie or yen.
they were the euro bullish ones, whats going on??????.
  • #3,659
  • Jan 15, 2008 12:33am Jan 15, 2008 12:33am
Quoting acidguy
omg, if its break 1.4820 this thing goes way down...

we as a traders have to know why these things happens...
germany has just comented growth is slashed from 2.9% to 2.5%.
after the report euro started loosing. next victim is chf today.

anyway....
investors are making the idea Trichet is like a dog who barks but not bite.
1.50 is looking every minute more far away, in the fundamental way.
probable could be offset by really weak report from usa today, but maybe there is a surprise hidden there, the PPI???.

remember the last drop to 1.43???
a surprise, traders were ready to launch it straight to 1.50.
if there is a surprise and goes big the way down, even with a 50 rate cut from fed. euro could lack strenght in the technical way, a big head shoulders pattern in the weekly to the downside. + ecb would be close to do the same as capitals flow to usa again.

+ another thing is BNP Paribas, today reported to their investors dont make big bets in the euro and better get into aussie or yen.
they were the euro bullish ones, whats going on??????.
Very true..if 4820 is breached, it could really fall. There is major consolidation at that area from a few days ago.It is also the 61.8 of the last upswing on the 1 hr chart.
  • #3,660
  • Jan 15, 2008 12:40am Jan 15, 2008 12:40am
What makes me think that the eur MAY break the hi is the inverse h/s on the daily. Is it just dipping now to gather up steam to complete the inverse?
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