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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,381
  • Jan 14, 2008 11:25am Jan 14, 2008 11:25am
Gotta go to a meeting.

I took the same TC that Phillip took on the GBPUSD. I will see if this sucker keeps moving (I could have taken a small profit, but I want to learn to hold my trades).

I also took the TC on the USDCAD. I believe this will be more of a scalp, as there appears to be a resistence price. But I did believe that it would reach the resistence high again, and if it does, I will move my stop loss up.
  • #10,382
  • Jan 14, 2008 11:48am Jan 14, 2008 11:48am
I have moved my stoploss to 1.9585 due to the 5min triangle that has been forming since 14:00. If the price is going to break out to the top I want to take my profit. If it goes south then I will smile. It is about to show its colours. Let see what it is going to do. Going to bed now. See you all tomorrow.
Phillip
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  • #10,383
  • Jan 14, 2008 11:52am Jan 14, 2008 11:52am
I am with you unlv_tj on trying to hold trades longer if they look to have some potential. I'm willing to watch a 30 pip gain turn against me sometimes for the opportunity to catch 100+ pip moves. I'm just starting with this mindset so we'll see how it goes lol. Obviously this isn't good for CT trades though.

I saw the CAD setup but didn't take it due to the resistance around 1.0235 and it wouldn't have been good R:R at the time my 4hr candle closed. If we fail to break that level it could be a fall, but if it does get broken I'll probably look for a signal when it retraces to the 1.0235 area again.

I think I'm starting to get a hang of this system now. Thanks Philip and everyone else for your contributions, I hope we can keep learning together!
  • #10,384
  • Jan 14, 2008 12:01pm Jan 14, 2008 12:01pm
Quoting Betard
I am with you unlv_tj on trying to hold trades longer if they look to have some potential. I'm willing to watch a 30 pip gain turn against me sometimes for the opportunity to catch 100+ pip moves. I'm just starting with this mindset so we'll see how it goes lol. Obviously this isn't good for CT trades though.

I saw the CAD setup but didn't take it due to the resistance around 1.0235 and it wouldn't have been good R:R at the time my 4hr candle closed. If we fail to break that level it could be a fall, but if it does get broken I'll probably look for a signal when it retraces to the 1.0235 area again.

I think I'm starting to get a hang of this system now. Thanks Philip and everyone else for your contributions, I hope we can keep learning together!
Yes, you are correct on holding trades. I need to learn patience, though I really feel I have gotten a hang of this system over the last few months.

I only took the CAD as a scalp. I can't say it was a good trade, I just felt it had a good chance to stay in the channel and test resistence again (which I set my TP right below resistence).

I could very well be wrong.
  • #10,385
  • Jan 14, 2008 12:22pm Jan 14, 2008 12:22pm
Written copy of Phillip Nel's GBPUSD Trade. Find chart on page 692, post 10377. For those with difficulty understanding spoken English.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc PhillipNel GBPUSD Trade- 14Jan2008.doc   7 KB | 587 downloads
  • #10,386
  • Jan 14, 2008 2:36pm Jan 14, 2008 2:36pm
I'm a pip away from closing one on the EU for 20. Barely moving on the Rt but I feel like being conservative here with the calendar and strength of the price with the 8ema lately.

Not sure if anyone else heard this this morning on CNBC 'The Spin Channel':

On Wednesday morning after the CPI is released, if the number is really bad (high) suggesting inflation the fed may step in and lower rates after the number is released. This is just what I heard, the truth....who knows. But, this could be an extremely volatile situation for price action along with a spread of about 20pips or so on the $ pairs.

Just thinking out loud here...pips4....whad'ya think???
  • #10,387
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:00pm Jan 14, 2008 3:00pm
I got stopped out on the CAD. I think I set the stops too close. One step closer to a winning trade.
  • #10,388
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:03pm Jan 14, 2008 3:03pm
Quoting Palmer
I'm a pip away from closing one on the EU for 20. Barely moving on the Rt but I feel like being conservative here with the calendar and strength of the price with the 8ema lately.

Not sure if anyone else heard this this morning on CNBC 'The Spin Channel':

On Wednesday morning after the CPI is released, if the number is really bad (high) suggesting inflation the fed may step in and lower rates after the number is released. This is just what I heard, the truth....who knows. But, this could be an extremely volatile situation for price action along with a spread of about 20pips or so on the $ pairs.

Just thinking out loud here...pips4....whad'ya think???
It is great to hear the fundamental news here as well. Might keep me shady on taking any trades until after Wednesdays announcement.

So you took the CT trade on the EURUSD? I considered it, but I was not certain how many here took the CT trades.
  • #10,389
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:27pm Jan 14, 2008 3:27pm
The main reason I took it was because price pulled away from the 8 by a good margin. What I've 'seen' is when this happens, the 8 acts like a rubber band with the price...it does it's best to pull it back to the 8 and fill in the gap. It was sort of a ultra-consevative 'pullback' trade.

No positions open right now....

I just was sent a PM by Ryanmcd and EricthePip abuot the EG pair... I never really looked at this pair before but look at those pullbacks to the 21 area on the 4hr....gold.
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  • #10,390
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:40pm Jan 14, 2008 3:40pm
Palmer, thank you for the tip.

I have seen the 8 act like a rubber band as you said, I was just too conservative to take the CT trade.

Heck, even if it goes flat to get back to the 8 EMA, you can probably still scalp 10 or 15 pips in most cases.

Good call.

I am still long in the USDCAD. It didn't move as quick as I wanted, but I took such a small position that I am letting it ride.
  • #10,391
  • Jan 14, 2008 4:24pm Jan 14, 2008 4:24pm
just took the trades off the 1h charts
Looking for a bounce off the 21 from each.
Yes, I realize I jumped the gun considerably.

long EUR @ 1.4874 w/ stop @ 1.4855

short JPY @ 108.20 w/ stop @ 108.39

Exit plan: exit when MACD closes green

I could be screwed here for not being patient.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dual trade.jpg Size: 63 KB
"The market pays you to be disciplined"
  • #10,392
  • Jan 14, 2008 4:33pm Jan 14, 2008 4:33pm
Quoting merrittb
just took the trades off the 1h charts
Looking for a bounce off the 21 from each.
Yes, I realize I jumped the gun considerably.

long EUR @ 1.4874 w/ stop @ 1.4855

short JPY @ 108.20 w/ stop @ 108.39

Exit plan: exit when MACD closes green

I could be screwed here for not being patient.
merrittb:

It may consolidate here for a few hours...this is a weird time of day for price action. The 8 is still about 12 pips south, at least on my chart, but it's strong so....


Website Updates:

The website is due for a major overhaul. This is good because it continues to grow. I posted some candlestick info on there somewhere...and I can't find it! I plan on making all the links drop-down menus to make things easier to find. The Tools page needs to be cleaned up. Also, there's going to be more 1 hour entry chart examples so it needs room. Soooo, if you're surfing around and find a broken link or page not found, this is probably why. This is all still a work in progress so bear (bare ?) with me. It won't happen tomorrow, thinking in the next several weeks.

I've got waayyyy to many charts open right now...
  • #10,393
  • Jan 14, 2008 4:45pm Jan 14, 2008 4:45pm
That's odd that you mention the movement for the time of day because I was just pondering on that subject myself today. (I made a note to do some research on it later) Perhaps you've learned about this matter already? If so please share!

Merritt
"The market pays you to be disciplined"
  • #10,394
  • Jan 14, 2008 6:22pm Jan 14, 2008 6:22pm
Quoting merrittb
That's odd that you mention the movement for the time of day because I was just pondering on that subject myself today. (I made a note to do some research on it later) Perhaps you've learned about this matter already? If so please share!

Merritt

When I was messing around with the 5min and 15min timeframes it seemed like from 4pm - 8pm (central USA) things were really stagnant. Things didn't get going, still slow until later in the evening when Asia started. Really hard to do anything during that time....So, that 8pm candle for me is a slow mover...
  • #10,395
  • Jan 14, 2008 7:55pm Jan 14, 2008 7:55pm
Quoting OldDog
Written copy of Phillip Nel's GBPUSD Trade. Find chart on page 692, post 10377. For those with difficulty understanding spoken English.



thanks oldog,cause my native not english,so thank very much with your contribute
  • #10,396
  • Edited 10:15pm Jan 14, 2008 8:59pm | Edited 10:15pm
Check out my Cable long trade guys.
Anyone comment pls?
And for Philip & Palmer how is the trade based on the system?
Entry @ 1.9576
SL @ 1.9513
TP 1st @Fibo level, 2nd @Top Resistance

Would appreciate your comment

EDIT: 1st pic is 4HR and the 2nd pic is zoom in to 1HR
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 1HR MACD.jpg Size: 190 KB
  • #10,397
  • Jan 14, 2008 9:17pm Jan 14, 2008 9:17pm
Quoting hijackxx@hotmai
Check out my Cable long trade guys.
Anyone comment pls?
And for Philip & Palmer how is the trade based on the system?
Entry @ 1.9576
SL @ 1.9513
TP 1st @Fibo level, 2nd @Top Resistance

Would appreciate your comment
my chart different with you,but for me i will wait until candle close,if morning star pattern built ,i will be open long,then i will be quick BEP or trailing my Sl cause CT,but the main canddle pattern morning star fo reason i am CT,wait for macd give me signal,thanks.

"Together More Better Than Alone"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ct.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #10,398
  • Jan 14, 2008 10:24pm Jan 14, 2008 10:24pm
Quoting juang
my chart different with you,but for me i will wait until candle close,if morning star pattern built ,i will be open long,then i will be quick BEP or trailing my Sl cause CT,but the main canddle pattern morning star fo reason i am CT,wait for macd give me signal,thanks.

"Together More Better Than Alone"
That's weird. I don't have the hammer on my 4hr chart.
And I think we have different MACD version as well. Mine is already indicating buy signal since the close of the bottom reverse movement.
Anyway, 40 minutes till the close of the current bar and the opening of the next.
Current movement is still slow.
  • #10,399
  • Jan 14, 2008 10:38pm Jan 14, 2008 10:38pm
Oh, by the way.. H&S pattern formed on the price action.
Maybe it is to confirm more of the long?
Mah 2 cents
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  • #10,400
  • Jan 14, 2008 11:32pm Jan 14, 2008 11:32pm
Hi,

Been having problems grapling with this.
Could anyone please be so kind as to explain to me what kind of emotion are being built around this small candle today as reflected in this chart below?

Thanks in advance for your contribution.
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