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  • #3,621
  • Jan 13, 2008 3:21am Jan 13, 2008 3:21am
i see a possibility that this pair may be in for a big ole retrace using td seq 9 .... and td seq 13.... maybe not today maybe not tommorow...but..... so be warned!!!!
  • #3,622
  • Jan 13, 2008 6:32am Jan 13, 2008 6:32am
There are a lot of USD bulls out there looking for an excuse to buy the dollar at these high levels. They keep having to change positions I believe everytime the fundamentals prove them wrong like they did last week.

I think we will see the same this week. Slight re-trace on any bad news out of Euro zone. ZEW likely to be weak and also moderating Euro-zone CPI will be a great excuse to buy USD.

Then later in the week we have a raft of USD negative news which will probably send the Euro higher again.

On the 1-hr chart you can see two distinct price-open/price-close peaks at the 31-DEC and 05-JAN. The resultant trend line will not be broken, no one dares buy the pair above this trend-line - that would just be crazy.... The trend line however allows 1.50 level in the first week of FEB.

Likely we will bounce around between 50% fibbo from the last major peak to low of 1.4670 to 1.4310 Which makes it 1.4640 support. This week this support was tested and it held very well. Sure the pair should be on the high side, but anywhere near the trend line and there will be a raft of selling, me inlcuded.

Al the best to all of you, may the trend be with you,
vaio
  • #3,623
  • Jan 13, 2008 1:55pm Jan 13, 2008 1:55pm
Wow it looks like you all have very good points about this weeks predictions. So are you guys bullishh or bearish for this pair??? Currently I am bullish.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #3,624
  • Jan 13, 2008 2:01pm Jan 13, 2008 2:01pm
I am out of this pair. Perhaps bulls in better place since common sense/media says "buy EURUSD all day long," (good or bad) but I would not be surprised to see a channel form around these levels and lots of frustrating sideways action.
  • #3,625
  • Jan 14, 2008 12:34am Jan 14, 2008 12:34am
Looks like we just had a key breakout to the topside. 1.4820 Critical resistance level has just been broken. I believe we have a pretty high chance of attaining 1.400 (Next psychological resistance level). We still have the european open ready in about 1 and a half hours, this may also boost the intensity of this pair, maybe even a breakout of 1.4900 (which would then make it a nice support level for 1.5000).
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #3,626
  • Jan 14, 2008 12:57am Jan 14, 2008 12:57am
Quoting chady250
Looks like we just had a key breakout to the topside. 1.4820 Critical resistance level has just been broken. I believe we have a pretty high chance of attaining 1.400 (Next psychological resistance level). We still have the european open ready in about 1 and a half hours, this may also boost the intensity of this pair, maybe even a breakout of 1.4900 (which would then make it a nice support level for 1.5000).
its crazy, 1 man.

totally whipping out and sending to dust the $ ,one time almighty currency.

his name = TRICHET -> converting americans into poors, making perform dollar worse than even a 3rd world currency. sad.
  • #3,627
  • Jan 14, 2008 1:01am Jan 14, 2008 1:01am
chance to 75 bp cut..
Money often costs too much...
  • #3,628
  • Jan 14, 2008 1:01am Jan 14, 2008 1:01am
Quoting acidguy
its crazy, 1 man.

totally whipping out and sending to dust the $ ,one time almighty currency.

his name = TRICHET -> converting americans into poors, making perform dollar worse than even a 3rd world currency. sad.
i totally agree with you their. what are your projections for this week acid guy???
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #3,629
  • Jan 14, 2008 1:03am Jan 14, 2008 1:03am
Quoting indotrader
chance to 75 bp cut..
that would be pretty insame if we get a 75bp cut, it would be pretty unusual if it did. I have never traded in such an environment yet, so it would be something new if it does occur.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #3,630
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:10am Jan 14, 2008 3:10am
its insane, look at the euro.

bad news and keep rallying... those kind of news confirms why the ecb cant raise rates. even 4,0% are proving to be really high, look at their data.
  • #3,631
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:16am Jan 14, 2008 3:16am
Quoting acidguy
its insane, look at the euro.

bad news and keep rallying... those kind of news confirms why the ecb cant raise rates. even 4,0% are proving to be really high, look at their data.
Market is pricing Fed cutting between 50 and 75bp, down to 3.75 to 3.5%. This means that the negative swap in EURUSD will disappear. It will be enough to boost this pair.

Do not underestimate the impact of Fed cutting rates in the market. It IS a big deal.
  • #3,632
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:24am Jan 14, 2008 3:24am
Quoting cesarnc
Market is pricing Fed cutting between 50 and 75bp, down to 3.75 to 3.5%. This means that the negative swap in EURUSD will disappear. It will be enough to boost this pair.

Do not underestimate the impact of Fed cutting rates in the market. It IS a big deal.
wt u mean by that? do u think eur unstopable these day?
  • #3,633
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:34am Jan 14, 2008 3:34am
Quoting aimanJaslan
wt u mean by that? do u think eur unstopable these day?
I just dropped here the single most important underlying fundamental in this market.

you figure out what to do with this now.
  • #3,634
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:59am Jan 14, 2008 3:59am
the euro reached a very overbought area near the 1.4900 resistance area with MACD divergence.. and no serious news for today..
therefor, the pair gonna consolidate where it is after moer than 100 pips form high to low.. a short positions is risky but the pair can be scalped up and down till us open..
trade safe
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  • #3,635
  • Jan 14, 2008 4:33am Jan 14, 2008 4:33am
It might be true that EUR is getting into overbought territory, but look at history and it will highlight that the market sometimes ignores it. I agree that you could scalp the market but remember THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND and don't get burnt by going against the trend.

I still believe that the tradeable retracement will only occur after a new high above 1.4970 (more likely above the magical 1.5000) has been set. Many previous posts on this topic agreed that 1.50 is the number and after today's break of the recent 1.4825 high this is a certainty that a new high will be established before a substantial decline starts.
  • #3,636
  • Jan 14, 2008 4:39am Jan 14, 2008 4:39am
Quoting Lifesong
It might be true that EUR is getting into overbought territory, but look at history and it will highlight that the market sometimes ignores it. I agree that you could scalp the market but remember THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND and don't get burnt by going against the trend.

I still believe that the tradeable retracement will only occur after a new high above 1.4970 (more likely above the magical 1.5000) has been set. Many previous posts on this topic agreed that 1.50 is the number and after today's break of the recent 1.4825 high this is a certainty that a new high will be established before a substantial decline starts.
1.50 is a colossal magnet and it's only a matter of today or tomorrow???????????
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #3,637
  • Jan 14, 2008 4:48am Jan 14, 2008 4:48am
Quoting cesarnc
I just dropped here the single most important underlying fundamental in this market.

you figure out what to do with this now.
so, better stay away or better short, my 2 cent thought it might be bearish after tired bullish in a day http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif but not much during US season. she will be go to the north. Just a thought dont take it blindly.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
  • #3,638
  • Jan 14, 2008 5:03am Jan 14, 2008 5:03am
Quoting cgldsmth
1.50 is a colossal magnet and it's only a matter of today or tomorrow???????????
A matter of momentum funds joining the party
  • #3,639
  • Jan 14, 2008 5:16am Jan 14, 2008 5:16am
pls dont open a new tread with a title, i lost 100k in a week, RSI was overbought, stohastic crossed so i shorted with no sl...:
its just money
  • #3,640
  • Jan 14, 2008 5:26am Jan 14, 2008 5:26am
Quoting de123
pls dont open a new tread with a title, i lost 100k in a week, RSI was overbought, stohastic crossed so i shorted with no sl...:
haha, good one ^_^
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