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Aussie Pairs

  • #1,841
  • Jan 11, 2008 7:08pm Jan 11, 2008 7:08pm
Here is the daily for AJ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 21 KB
Just Trade It
  • #1,842
  • Jan 11, 2008 7:10pm Jan 11, 2008 7:10pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Yes they are bearish on those time frames (100 is below 200) but the price is above those ma's so it's a conflicting signal. On the daily TF we have the 100 and 200 fused together, the 8 wants to go past the 13 BUT price bounced off of the daily triangle, again a conflicting signal. And on the weekly TF we have a bullish candle that bounced off of the 100 but the 8 is below the 13 and both are pointed down, so in short no matter what TF you look at you have both bullish and bearish signals that are not only conflicting but confusing. So my after my insightful analysis I would have to say that were are not in a trend but rather in a range. Hopefully all of this will get sorted out on Monday.

AU however has clearer bullish signals on all time frames (above 1hr)
Just Trade It
  • #1,843
  • Jan 12, 2008 8:47am Jan 12, 2008 8:47am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
AU however has clearer bullish signals on all time frames (above 1hr)
AU is headed to 9400
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,844
  • Jan 12, 2008 10:11am Jan 12, 2008 10:11am
Quoting Pirin
I just can't believe it, the data that came out was supreme, what is happening with the aud, where is this short sentiment coming from ?
Not sure how much this is affecting overall sentiment as yet, but since the new Labour (union controlled) government was elected recently it feels like I am hearing news of another strike or strike threat weekly... it is a very noticeable chnage in how things were under the previous government.

Building Unions, Aircraft Engineers, School Teachers, Ambulance Officers and Nurses are on strike or threatening it in the last 6 weeks... and it feels like this flood started within a week of Labour taking power.


Here is story from last week where the new government is trying to hose down reports Union's have gone straight for the country's jugular.


Opposition leader Brendan Nelson urged the Government to rein in the unions and their wage claims. "We're three days into 2008 and already we've got the prospect of strikes in the construction industry," he said.

"The Australian economy is like a finely tuned car and the last thing we can afford is for Mr Rudd to let the unions take it out for burnouts and an engine blow-up. We can't afford any risks at the moment with the global economic pressures that are bearing down on Australia."

But the Acting Prime Minister dismissed the Opposition Leader's criticism.




But the strikes and ambit wage claims coming up so often isnt even the real problem that looms... with the Government's scrapping of the previous workplace laws, they have removed the ability for business to manage a scale down as the economy slows... right at the time it was going to be needed most.


That's why I think Australia'a economy will not look anything like the bull it has been for the last decade before the start of 2009.
  • #1,845
  • Jan 12, 2008 3:03pm Jan 12, 2008 3:03pm
Could this be a head and shoulder forming on the daily chart for aussie/dollar?

I cannot say for sure.

If it is a head and shoulder, then it will complete the right shoulder around 90.91 area and drop.

Aussie will have her own set of problems in the coming year.

I do not trade this pair, and would like an opinion from someone who is familiar with it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily audusd.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #1,846
  • Jan 12, 2008 3:11pm Jan 12, 2008 3:11pm
P.S....
I see bearish 1 candle momentum indicator (blue).
I see 5 candle momentum (yellow) above 100 but pointing downward.
I see 10c and 14 c moms above 100 but pointing downward.

My zigzag indicator (aqua) is showing 4th wave up from the previous high.

CCI (lime green) is 183 and making a vee formation pointing down (overbought)

RSI (blue) is 61 which is bullish and NOT overbought, but pointing down. Leaves room to upside.

ATR (pink) is low, which denotes range trading, low volatility.
  • #1,847
  • Jan 12, 2008 3:14pm Jan 12, 2008 3:14pm
i see the price is above the 5 sma high and 5 sma low channel, which is bullish.
  • #1,848
  • Jan 12, 2008 3:18pm Jan 12, 2008 3:18pm
price is above the 100 sma (aqua) which is bullish.

55 sma (brown) has crossed below 100 sma which is bearish.

22 sma has crossed below 55 sma and 100 sma which is bearish.


These mixed signals tell me choppy trade is ahead (consolidation)
  • #1,849
  • Jan 12, 2008 4:24pm Jan 12, 2008 4:24pm
Quoting DutchTrader
AU is headed to 9400
I agree but we have this hurdle which is fear in the markets. Every time there is some bad news coming out, the equity markets start selling off which is a road block imvho for AU going to new highs. When we see a turn around, imvho, we will parity before the year is up and possibly even higher. It is just a matter of time and patience. I want to get in long term, but looking for a good entry point. Need some unwinding then I'll go in long term.

To give you an idea, $1000 @ 6.75% = $67.50 *100 (leverage) = $6750.00 @ the end of the year on just the carry trade interest earned. If one has the money and patience, imagine how much an individual could make with a $10,000.00 lot on just the % alone, not counting when the currency goes up by at least 1000 pips.
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  • #1,850
  • Jan 12, 2008 4:44pm Jan 12, 2008 4:44pm
Quoting Ash
I agree but we have this hurdle which is fear in the markets. Every time there is some bad news coming out, the equity markets start selling off which is a road block imvho for AU going to new highs. When we see a turn around, imvho, we will parity before the year is up and possibly even higher. It is just a matter of time and patience. I want to get in long term, but looking for a good entry point. Need some unwinding then I'll go in long term.

To give you an idea, $1000 @ 6.75% = $67.50 *100 (leverage) = $6750.00 @ the end of the year on just the carry trade interest earned. If one has the money and patience, imagine how much an individual could make with a $10,000.00 lot on just the % alone, not counting when the currency goes up by at least 1000 pips.
I know about the fear, look at the AU reaction this week as compared to the other pairs. The fear in the market is offset by the prospect of the fed lowering rates. No matter how much fear there is, once they cut the Aud's taking off. Period. Nothing will stop that. Now AJ is another matter, that might drag on AU.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,851
  • Jan 12, 2008 5:11pm Jan 12, 2008 5:11pm
I put a lot of thought into this pair recently. It was a fun learning experience. Some analysts are not calling for an excellent year for AUD compared to last. I was very bulligh the pair, but after some research I become a little concerned about global slowdown and it's effects on AUD.

Coal may not be enough to push AUD to the next level. It may retest the highs though, if EURUSD make another charge up. Dollar weaknes may have it's limits, however. Bottom line was to just keep the trades short term in the high interest pairs.
  • #1,852
  • Jan 13, 2008 6:41am Jan 13, 2008 6:41am
Quoting ovaforty
Could this be a head and shoulder forming on the daily chart for aussie/dollar?
I posted a similar observation last week. If the AUD loses it's footing around next major resistance of 0.91 then we may see a retest of prior lows.

Quoting PiP sL@y3r
I just took a glimpse of the weekly AUD/USD. If the pair retraces to 0.90 or just above, and then corrects itself to prior lower lows (support 0.855) then we may have an obvious H&S pattern to contend with
Just trying to make some dollars and sense...
  • #1,853
  • Jan 13, 2008 1:10pm Jan 13, 2008 1:10pm
Not much of a bullish sentiment in either aud/usd nor aud/jpy (so far).
  • #1,854
  • Jan 13, 2008 1:46pm Jan 13, 2008 1:46pm
Quoting Pirin
Not much of a bullish sentiment in either aud/usd nor aud/jpy (so far).
It was just not showing much life on the best of news. The EURAUD undermined any upward pressure. Could have all been temporary, though. Might charge up, who knows.
  • #1,855
  • Jan 13, 2008 3:05pm Jan 13, 2008 3:05pm
sure it will ... I'm looking at the chart and keep asking myself "why is this happening" and to be honest , I don't have an answer.
  • #1,856
  • Jan 13, 2008 3:53pm Jan 13, 2008 3:53pm
Quoting Ash
I agree but we have this hurdle which is fear in the markets. Every time there is some bad news coming out, the equity markets start selling off which is a road block imvho for AU going to new highs. When we see a turn around, imvho, we will parity before the year is up and possibly even higher. It is just a matter of time and patience. I want to get in long term, but looking for a good entry point. Need some unwinding then I'll go in long term.

To give you an idea, $1000 @ 6.75% = $67.50 *100 (leverage) = $6750.00 @ the end of the year on just the carry trade interest earned. If one has the money and patience, imagine how much an individual could make with a $10,000.00 lot on just the % alone, not counting when the currency goes up by at least 1000 pips.
What broker is giving you that high an interest rate?
  • #1,857
  • Jan 13, 2008 4:28pm Jan 13, 2008 4:28pm
Hi all, market is opening again, and i placed some orders before go to sleep, just take a look to the image, what u think about?

Happy pips to all

http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/1...ginerg0.th.jpg
  • #1,858
  • Edited 12:40am Jan 14, 2008 12:20am | Edited 12:40am
Quoting DutchTrader
I know about the fear, look at the AU reaction this week as compared to the other pairs. The fear in the market is offset by the prospect of the fed lowering rates. No matter how much fear there is, once they cut the Aud's taking off. Period. Nothing will stop that. Now AJ is another matter, that might drag on AU.
You speak the truth - in the end it is the interest rate differential and the speculations over potential changes in it that drive exchange rates. That being said, FX volatility this next week is sure to be off the hook, what with all the corporate earnings announcements and high-impact U.S. economic data. The next one looks to be a bit slower, followed by the judgement day at the end of month, i.e. Fed interest rate announcement.
  • #1,859
  • Jan 14, 2008 12:38am Jan 14, 2008 12:38am
Quoting Ash
To give you an idea, $1000 @ 6.75% = $67.50 *100 (leverage) = $6750.00 @ the end of the year on just the carry trade interest earned. If one has the money and patience, imagine how much an individual could make with a $10,000.00 lot on just the % alone, not counting when the currency goes up by at least 1000 pips.
This math is wrong for a couple of reasons.

1. No broker will give you BM rate - it will always be offset by a negative delta. For instance, mine pays 6.2% (BM - 0.5%).
2. You will be charged debit interest on the short USD balance, which, similarly to the above is calculated as BM + some offset (1.5% for me).

Given the above, in my example the carry trade benefit would be 6.2-5.76 = 0.44%. Assuming your leverage, no decline in the exchange rate from your entry point, and that the rate fluctuations in the meantime don't put you in a margin call situation, your total gain over the course of the year is 10^6 * 0.44% = $4400.
  • #1,860
  • Edited 2:41am Jan 14, 2008 2:21am | Edited 2:41am
Quoting Subdude
You speak the truth - in the end it is the interest rate differential and the speculations over potential changes in it that drive exchange rates. That being said, FX volatility this next week is sure to be off the hook, what with all the corporate earnings announcements and high-impact U.S. economic data. The next one looks to be a bit slower, followed by the judgement day at the end of month, i.e. Fed interest rate announcement.
Agreed. All the action, imvho will be dependent on the data you just mentioned. FWIW +60 pips in the AustralAsia session. Looks like the risk aversion's kicking in in Europe again.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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