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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #1,681
  • Jan 11, 2008 7:01pm Jan 11, 2008 7:01pm
Its a pleasure reading this thread Skunny...its obvious to see your one of the good guys.

Ive been having these eureka moments daily now...with v-hands and fibs.

Right now I'm trying to go through chart data to find where a certain trade wouldn't work instead of finding ones that would!

Ya gotta Love It!

Charlie
  • #1,682
  • Jan 11, 2008 7:18pm Jan 11, 2008 7:18pm
Hello Skunny. Here is a chart you showed us earlier. All prices I mention are drawn on your chart, so it should be comfortable to spot these numbers as I present a few questions. Thank you in advance for your time.

Q: You've mentioned somewhere on this thread about redrawing your fib lines from a target once it has been reached. If this is true then would not your buy target be above 1.4750 after the breach of 1.4655 on your chart, since your sell line would be moved to the target reached at 1.4308?

Regarding your chart below...

Q: Why was the prior swing high not used for the buy line? My guess is because it had already completed it's cycle further down the chart in the Dec.13th area. Now if that is correct, I'm curious why you did not remove or shift your buy line further down the chart after this next cycle completed at it's sell target of 1.4308? My only guess is that original buy and sell lines may still hold value meaning we should leave them on our charts or take mental of these levels. Is that true?

Since EU has now breached 1.4750, my guess would be that we are headed for the 1.49XX level. Don't trade this people. Just stimulating the thought process.

Much appreciated,
Jon
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 18 KB
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #1,683
  • Edited 8:01pm Jan 11, 2008 7:25pm | Edited 8:01pm
Quoting sizzler
I was writing an email to Lowell and I put a chart on there... then I thought about and I wanted everyones opinion, everyone except Dagoods that is. What a clown!. J/k hehehe

Now I am not saying anything, but lets say :

not using JUST fibs my trading is A LOT better.

This bothers me. I dislike losing intensely. I dislike not comprehending something even more. It is like ultra mega losing.

I realized just using fibs I was AFRAID of the market. I didn;t have a reasonable expectation of what was going to happen because I am not the Snip Snap at fibs.

This is obviously a testing/comprehension issue, but the goal is 100 so anything less means I am wrong. just one loss kicked me in the pants. One loss normally? well that is obviously my broker stop hunting duh.

Now I was doing quite well, I must say, ADDING fibs to what is my bread and butter. The fibs would clarify and lock down what i was doing.

I am going to post two charts D1 ( i,love d1 because how often has it surprised you? not too often).

m1? yikes. I wear a diaper at my trade station . Trading it is like having an irritated mongoose in your gymshorts IMO. I guess not with fibs.. but whatever.

I THINK this has overall relevance to me but I am not sure how for everyone. the blue lines are specific areas I look at as support and resistance. I am d1 these are not pip perfect. it is more of a ZONE since I smashed these together I am sure it would work out just the same or better.

These are really loose but you get the picture. or maybe not... look at my grand D1 Fib and my areas of S/R premarked. I am not going to go in to how sloppy these are I slapped them together.

On oh say the GU chart after the break my TP might be 1.9260 BUT with fib... I might let it run until 1.9040 now. 9040 is in the general area os demand AND a number GU loves.. it allow me to fine tune my trading.

Same barkin thing GY "THIS IS BEAUTIFUL". break of the neck line fib has us short(duh) also this IS where my measuring tell me to fib not that super poke down. could be wrong.

so break of the neck line... where is our TP??? first Major support is IMO is 209.70-210...now what does the fib say OH??? Realllly??? wierd.

now I know I am in zones not pip perfect but i told you this was sloppy That is just like you, sheesh 1200 pips and you whine about 20... man.. hehehe. win the lotto but what about the taxes... good grief..

Question: HOW COOL IS THAT ?

Answer: very.

Sizz.,

also I heart this thread if you couldn't tell... Thanks Skunny. It has answered some big needs/questions in my trading and opened more doors to a better overall everything.

YOU DARE SINGLE ME OUT! THIS IS WAR! oh ok it aint war at all...we trying to help each other aren't we? listen super sizz....I admire your tenacity...this is the key to success IMHO.... Someday you will buy forex factory from your billions and burn it just to spite ME..... i am confused and learning just like you friend...we all trying really hard..... now that being said... I like your charts you just posted...seems pretty dang good to me...but what do I know..... I was off on my gj experiment remember... I was off by many pips....so ..... On the other hand.... I still bagged a giant squid!

PS I was off on my fib only becasue I was fibbing in an area of fib clusters I think....hmmmmmm lots of 0 fibs at that point...... THIS IS POSSIBLY POWERFUL INFO....SKUNNY SAID WE CAN TRADE FIB CLUSTERS.......... I HAVE LEARNED AGAIN THANK YOU O WISE ONE..OH GREAT ONE..OH SEE-ER OF
ALL THAT IS FOREX!

My take on fib clusters is this if you have moore than one 0 pierces within a few pips (like on my gj experiment) then you can bet your bottom dollar that when price breaks it it gonna break it hardcore..... good stuff!


Point is the Skunny method works even if you aint got it perfect just yet....
I tell ya though....and I mean this kindly in a way to try to help all of us.... you and I post too many charts and follow too many pairs ..... nobody can follow and keep up with you bud....nor I ... I say this in all kindness and sincerity sizzlemonster.... here is my solution KISS

simple it up man! so what do we know for sure so far....

1. if you break 0 or 100 it goes to at least 138 (-138) ext

2. sometimes price only pierces the 0 or 100 but it WILL break it again after it retraces UNLESS you were at a point of a true reversal in price


3. if it pierces you can be pretty sure it retraces to 23 at least sometimes the 38 50 61 and 100 but you never know how far it will retrace


3. you can trade this knowledge both ways (take it on retrace to 23 fib for example then grab the 0 to -138)

4. Human error means NOBODY can be 100% (except master Skunny because he is a Saint) >>>>>>(gratuitous arse kissing)

5. IF you eat grass You are probably a cow (thought I'd slip that one in there)

6. There aint no 6 man .... Dont need one,,,just take profit immediately and lock that chit down in case you were off on your fibs....

now, DID i MISS ANYTHING? iF I DID PLEASE ADD TO THE RULES

and

if those rules are not true PLEASE ADVISE!

ps.... wedgies and gann lines and such...... we aint got enough info to make any rules yet!!!!! so relax and be patient just like me )) (yeah right) the master teaches and the student learns


KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK SIZZ

D
  • #1,684
  • Jan 11, 2008 7:37pm Jan 11, 2008 7:37pm
@ Sizzle. I think you have drawn them exactly the right way. I would have done them the same myself. I am curious to hear what Skunny would say regarding the GJ monthly. He's mentioned several things regarding bigger time frames from them ruling the smaller ones, to mentioning not placing lots of attention to the monthly charts. Monthly shows a very loooooong term move upward, but that could be years from now, if monthly charts hold the most power.

Just my thoughts...
Jon
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #1,685
  • Jan 11, 2008 8:19pm Jan 11, 2008 8:19pm
I love this thread. I have had many eye-openers during this thread. Just caught up with the rest of you. I practice alot on Vhands, get a bit frustrated when I lose, but then I practice more. It's like an obsession! I also dream about this stuff, very disturbing.

Are you Norwegian Skunny? If you are, then so am I!

Jon
Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law.
  • #1,686
  • Edited 8:50pm Jan 11, 2008 8:29pm | Edited 8:50pm
Ok, please no one persecute me for posting this. If Skunny wants it off I will delete it. I just thought it extremely interesting that FXCM used a trend line and elliot waves that look a lot like a Gann line and fib cycles to make this analysis. Also, believe it or not I tend to agree with the sizzy's bottom on GU of 1.90ish........will be interesting to watch. Time will be the uknown here, but since the 0 line has been penetrated 1.90ish is a given, but technically price could bounce up to 2.11ish before hitting 1.90ish. Hmmmm...............23.6 or 38.2 bounce anyone?



GBPUSD Possibly Forming a Significant Bottom
Friday, 11 January 2008 20:26:16 GMT


Written by Jamie Saettele, Currency Analyst
The GBPUSD has taken a beating for the past few months. However, the short term wave count along with extreme readings on the COT report suggest that relief is in sight.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...-08weekly1.gif
The GBPUSD has taken a beating since early November; so is a bottom in site? Maybe…there is significant support near today’s low. Two 161.8% extensions (2.1160-2.0353/2.0831 and 2.0830-2.0180/2.0576) are at 1.9525 and 1.9523. Also, a line drawn off of the 11/16 and 12/24 lows intersects with today’s low. Not to mention, the spike below 1.9500 (which is a psychological support in and of itself) sets up a nice bear trap. At this point, there is no clear trade because there is no clear risk. Keep abreast of developments by checking the technicals daily or by visiting the Elliott Wave forum.
  • #1,687
  • Jan 11, 2008 8:29pm Jan 11, 2008 8:29pm
if monthly charts hold the most power.

Just my thoughts...
Jon[/quote]

Jon,

I agree with your thoughts because honestly... you agree with me and I like that hehe actually I prefer when people don;t I learn more then.

I have GY going to 0.

IMO the monthly is the biggest slowest cycle of them all...the one cycle to rule them all. I see move playing out over decades on there. that is my thought.

I dunno if it right I charted out most pairs and if i am right what this tell me on the m1 is that the pound is going to weaken, the aussie, cad, franc and yen are going to get super strong. wtih franc yen being front runners. Dollar weak , pound weak.

If this works on the 1m it has to work the M1

What this would mean is that in the future there is going to be a huge flight to safety( a fundamental shift in investing) Gold and oil are going to shoot up the pound is toast.. the dollar will be getting weakened but not killed... I have dollar yen at 53 on the m1

I dunno.. I could be doing it wrong but I fundamentally understand the world in which those situations exist.

who knows? soros from what he says...

Any thoughts? Can someone else chart M1s and see. If I did it right it muy interesante now only if we could chart time...

Sizz.

Dagoods

waaa you hurt my feeling and broke my heart!!! hehehe j/k you had me a sizzlepoops

my trading is D1 I have a lot of time to just sit back and ruminate... not unlike a cow oddly enough that you mention it. If you want though.... I will sit back and work in the quiet and wait for Skunny I spose. I will be drawing charts on the walls of my office.

I never meant to confuse only to get feed back and counter point.

I was the guy with my hand up in lecture all the time rushing ahead "endearing" myself to professors

I guess I like to get an idea and look at it a million different ways and if I get stuck ask for help but I hate waiting for answers when i feel like I could/should be out there getting them myself. if that makes sense. I can;t stop until I figure something out.

I will tone it down just for you though aww I am nice guy.

Sizz
  • #1,688
  • Jan 11, 2008 10:53pm Jan 11, 2008 10:53pm
Quoting Skunny

Thanks to all the readers and posters for continuing to keep a positive learning atmosphere. This may be the only thread I've read that didn't have someone causing trouble. .
I believe I heard that you needed someone here to cause trouble, ask and ye shall receive, trouble has arrived to the tune of a 300 lb fat, hairy man with a bad attitude. :LOL

Could ya be a little more specific in the type of trouble you would like for me to cause because I of course am versed in SO many that I need to make sure that I am handing out the proper type!!!!!!
Shootist - Have Pip Shooters Will Travel
  • #1,689
  • Jan 12, 2008 12:25am Jan 12, 2008 12:25am
Quoting Skunny

By tomorrow we will have been visited a 115,000 times and 1500 posts, all on a thread that isn't giving trade calls. I think that's great.


Let's keep the spirit flowing for another month.
Oh gee!! Hmm... No trade calls? Damnnnn, to think I went through 112 pages looking for signals!!! Man this is such a sad thing!
  • #1,690
  • Jan 12, 2008 12:30am Jan 12, 2008 12:30am
Quoting Skunny

COME ON !! WITHOUT INDICATORS?

WHATEVER!

Show me your acct statement , 2years tax returns, a photo of your family and the next door neighbors family. Then and only then will I believe that rubbish.
Well, did 'er jiss like you sid tah do....no eenderkaturs. But I geess I hain't one nem gall dangd perfeshnull's cuz I hain't got no tax reterns. Olan Meells wouldn't let us take a family pitchur cuz weeuns is too uglee I geess. Ar nayburs is too uglee fer pitchurs too. But I did save iss hyere state mint...loaded 'er plum up tah the eeenernit fer yuns...

MAH STATE MINT
  • #1,691
  • Jan 12, 2008 12:31am Jan 12, 2008 12:31am
Quoting fsiltd
Seem to have missed a page or two out of my reading.
Just stumbled on this. Clusters huh?
I agree with the bad, or inconsistant, data rather. But also, {not to get all mystic and sh*t}, it is the "natural" return to the ratio's, and ratios of ratios etc. etc. Whoo voodoo!
That's why, and I've said it before, even though I use Fibonacci in general, probably more than I'd like to admit, in a wide variety of ways. I do still have to nod when the anti-fibo crowd holler, "..if you draw enough of them, price is likely to hit one of them..", you know the ones.

Isn't that the point? To hit our price targets? I say more the fool they are!

I use the "clusters" as additional confirmation, dare I say stronger signals. No, I'll say higher probability signals. Ratios that keep returning to each other over and over, is NOT a coincidental phenomenon.
Hell the more "clusters" the better S/R, is how I trade it.

Not trying to hijack, but I've attached a pic I posted in another of my dead-threads: a while ago. It's how I used 'em alot in the "early-days", now it's a bit much on a chart for me. But have a gander. Very intersting stuff {well I think anyway}
Check out the area where it was trading at the right of the chart especially, but even the other areas, where they are near each other or overlap. See what I mean.
I was hoping the candle whisperer, or anyone else for that matter, would have some comment on this?
Smack-down? Tell me I'm nuts and got it all wrong all this time? :
Do you also treat clustered areas as stronger S/R areas? Or do you still think it's only dirty data?
I know it may not be exactly be the way your teaching others here to draw "your fibs" {<--sorry}, so pardon the intrusion.

I am just of the type that would rather understand the underlying principal/concept of something, like a fib tool, rather than just when/where to draw it on a chart.
I'll stop sticking my nose in if you want me too!
Carpe Divitiae
  • #1,692
  • Jan 12, 2008 2:32am Jan 12, 2008 2:32am
Quoting ktrade
This is quite the annoying thread. OH BOY - NOT INDICATORS! THOSE ARE FOR NEWBIES. Skunny... please! Very easy to tell all are quite new to the biz. .....................

I have NEVER been in a professional trading room where indicators are not used (and quite extensively in most)..............................

Nevertheless, cheers and good luck/good trading to all,

kt
I am catching up on this thread after being away from this and other sites for several months. I realize this is 3 weeks old but I have a unique perspective you might enjoy. I am a professional trader and have worked for 2 firms since my career began in 1993. Both are considered the largest named financial institutions in the world. I cannot discuss company names here due to compliance and legal restrictions on registered NASD and NFA members.

Now on to my point and perspective: When I walked into both of the technical analyst departments for each of these huge firms I was surprised to see hundreds of paper charts lining the walls and pinned together with TL's, Channels & Fibs all over them. Don't confuse a trading room with a technical analyst room. The trading room typically responds to orders received from the brokerage force and institutional clients. The technical analysts are responsible for calculating best positions and S&R for the firms most widely owned positions. Trading rooms have many computer monitors to display current bid / ask prices and volume etc. for securities and many of these individuals know nothing about analysis of equity/fixed income positions. I know because I speak with these folks every day.

Furthermore, when I started calculating quantitative data in the 80's the programs I ran often had to run all night to arrive at statistical probability data and often ended in frustrating error therefore nullifying the entire time spent arriving at no answer. Shortly before this there were the punch card machines. My point is simple: it was nearly impossible to calculate multi-time frame analysis of RSI, Stoch, MACD, (insert indicator name, etc.) back then on anything less than daily data even if you were great with a slide rule.

So, ktrade please forgive the response, you are both correct and incorrect.

You may have heard the quote:
When I was 18 I couldn't believe how dumb my father was.....
When I was 30 I couldn't believe how much the old man had learned since I was 18.

I have seen some of the old guys with paper charts, pencil and a ruler run circles around younger guys that had every computer program imaginable.
  • #1,693
  • Edited 3:39am Jan 12, 2008 3:01am | Edited 3:39am
Quoting Skunny
I love the thinking goin on here, I LOVE IT !

Think of trading in ranges, each time frame has it's own range and targets.
HI again...sorry to be a hog, but I was re-reading this thread...and

WOW! is all I have to say...... To all that haven't re-readd from the beginning..... i highly suggest it..... All that stuff that didnt make any sense in the beginiing is now startign to sink in. Thanks Skunny. You truly are a master.

What you said in an earlier post"t was left kinda just haniging out there...and I was wondering if you planned on elaborating as it is quite intrigueing.....


SKUNNY WROTE:

"Think of trading in ranges, each time frame has it's own range and targets."


ALSO POST 137 SHALL REMAIN A MYSTERY TO ME FOREVER I'M AFRAID....

i WONDER IF IT HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH WEDGIES SQUID MEERKATS AND JALEPENOS?
  • #1,694
  • Jan 12, 2008 4:07am Jan 12, 2008 4:07am
I'm up back testing and it's 4AM
Robonacci com
  • #1,695
  • Jan 12, 2008 4:21am Jan 12, 2008 4:21am
Quoting GridTrader
Hello Skunny. Here is a chart you showed us earlier. All prices I mention are drawn on your chart, so it should be comfortable to spot these numbers as I present a few questions. Thank you in advance for your time.

Q: You've mentioned somewhere on this thread about redrawing your fib lines from a target once it has been reached. If this is true then would not your buy target be above 1.4750 after the breach of 1.4655 on your chart, since your sell line would be moved to the target reached at 1.4308?

Regarding your chart below...

Q: Why was the prior swing high not used for the buy line? My guess is because it had already completed it's cycle further down the chart in the Dec.13th area. Now if that is correct, I'm curious why you did not remove or shift your buy line further down the chart after this next cycle completed at it's sell target of 1.4308? My only guess is that original buy and sell lines may still hold value meaning we should leave them on our charts or take mental of these levels. Is that true?

Since EU has now breached 1.4750, my guess would be that we are headed for the 1.49XX level. Don't trade this people. Just stimulating the thought process.

Much appreciated,
Jon
Hey Jon,

This chart was made for specific question. BTW I know you guys are re-reading this thread and it is a great thing. But when you refer to old posts could you please include the old post#.

I happen to remember this one, it was a question that asked why his/her fib failed during back testing. The fib wasn't in the correct range, thus it appeared the fib failed, but it was the trader (like it is almost every time).


This chart illustrates where the fib needed to be at the time it was in a sell range. Oddly enough, it was also useful for the buy range because it didn't pass the target. (like I mentioned a few pages back).

Does this answer your question? Let me know if it didn't, or back up from the original post to see why I posted the chart.
Robonacci com
  • #1,696
  • Jan 12, 2008 5:47am Jan 12, 2008 5:47am
Quoting Jared
If anyone knows of a broker that you can do this with please share. Or maybe with the proper persuasion a broker might make this option availible!

I know that FxSol does and they may even have a hedge button, or is that FXCM. FxSol has a close and reverse button on their platform. I have done it on occassion with FXDD.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #1,697
  • Jan 12, 2008 7:58am Jan 12, 2008 7:58am
Quoting smjones
This looks like a great topic for discussion. Should be a lot of interesting points of view. Thanks for starting it.
Who knew?? post #7....
  • #1,698
  • Jan 12, 2008 8:27am Jan 12, 2008 8:27am
Quoting Pipskateer
Who knew?? post #7....
Robonacci com
  • #1,699
  • Jan 12, 2008 9:05am Jan 12, 2008 9:05am
Quoting dagoods
YOU DARE SINGLE ME OUT! THIS IS WAR! oh ok it aint war at all...we trying to help each other aren't we? listen super sizz....I admire your tenacity...this is the key to success IMHO.... Someday you will buy forex factory from your billions and burn it just to spite ME..... i am confused and learning just like you friend...we all trying really hard..... now that being said... I like your charts you just posted...seems pretty dang good to me...but what do I know..... I was off on my gj experiment remember... I was off by many pips....so ..... On the other hand.... I still bagged a giant squid!

PS I was off on my fib only becasue I was fibbing in an area of fib clusters I think....hmmmmmm lots of 0 fibs at that point...... THIS IS POSSIBLY POWERFUL INFO....SKUNNY SAID WE CAN TRADE FIB CLUSTERS.......... I HAVE LEARNED AGAIN THANK YOU O WISE ONE..OH GREAT ONE..OH SEE-ER OF
ALL THAT IS FOREX!

My take on fib clusters is this if you have moore than one 0 pierces within a few pips (like on my gj experiment) then you can bet your bottom dollar that when price breaks it it gonna break it hardcore..... good stuff!


Point is the Skunny method works even if you aint got it perfect just yet....
I tell ya though....and I mean this kindly in a way to try to help all of us.... you and I post too many charts and follow too many pairs ..... nobody can follow and keep up with you bud....nor I ... I say this in all kindness and sincerity sizzlemonster.... here is my solution KISS

simple it up man! so what do we know for sure so far....

1. if you break 0 or 100 it goes to at least 138 (-138) ext

2. sometimes price only pierces the 0 or 100 but it WILL break it again after it retraces UNLESS you were at a point of a true reversal in price


3. if it pierces you can be pretty sure it retraces to 23 at least sometimes the 38 50 61 and 100 but you never know how far it will retrace


3. you can trade this knowledge both ways (take it on retrace to 23 fib for example then grab the 0 to -138)

4. Human error means NOBODY can be 100% (except master Skunny because he is a Saint) >>>>>>(gratuitous arse kissing)

5. IF you eat grass You are probably a cow (thought I'd slip that one in there)

6. There aint no 6 man .... Dont need one,,,just take profit immediately and lock that chit down in case you were off on your fibs....

now, DID i MISS ANYTHING? iF I DID PLEASE ADD TO THE RULES

and

if those rules are not true PLEASE ADVISE!

ps.... wedgies and gann lines and such...... we aint got enough info to make any rules yet!!!!! so relax and be patient just like me )) (yeah right) the master teaches and the student learns


KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK SIZZ

D
Dagoods

AMEN, AMEN and Hallelujan! Sizz, I have PM'd you and you have kindly replied about this stuff here we are learning and I appreciate that so much... but sometimes your charts just blow my mind. Skunny said to keep it simple and although what you are posting may be simple to you, for guys like me who have LD then it seems like college algebra all over again and I failed that the first go around. Anyway, simple charts with simple guidelines would be of interest to me as I am sure others. Maybe another thread could be started entitled "indicator free trading for extremely dumb dummies" LOL. I am going to do more hands on training today with my virtual ones. Sizz, I admire your skills even though you humbly deny them. You certainly have a grasp of what's going on here. Anyway, simple is the better for me....isn't that the premise behind indicator free trading in the first place? Just my 2 ....

but...I do appreciate all the efforts of everyone....learned a lot here and I know the sunrise is not far away.

Daniel
  • #1,700
  • Jan 12, 2008 9:11am Jan 12, 2008 9:11am
Quoting th_ngue21
I am happy with my current goal of +100% return a year. So I dont need to search 10 years long for a Holy Grail. Time wasting.

And oh yeah, +90% win ratio Holy Grail donīt exist...
1500 posts later and over 100 pages....do you guys agree with this statement now?
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