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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 5:39am Dec 12, 2007 5:24am | Edited 5:39am
Against my better judgment.....and as a result of many questions directed towards my trading in a previous thread (Holy Grail....Found, by JohnW) I've opened this thread for quality conversations and debate about learning HOW to trade. I will not address negative comments and I expect other not to either. If it turns negative, I'll have to leave. In the event we find ourselves in the midst of a disgruntled trader, we need to ignore and move on. Deal? Debate is healthy, arguing is not.

I urge all of you to ask questions in a positive constructive way, if someone here is helpful we need to thank them....I think you all know what I'm trying to say.

If you need beginner help please refer to babypips.com

Disclaimer: I will do my best to answer all the questions I can. However, it won't be possible to answer all of them, I'm sure. Keep your questions related to the philosophies of trading itself. I won't have time to answer questions about platforms and systems or anything else unrelated to our main discussion.

Also, WE NEED TO HAVE FUN, so lighten up people
Robonacci com
  • #2
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:31am Dec 12, 2007 5:31am
Quoting Skunny
I will not address negative comments and I expect other not to either. If it turns negative, I'll have to leave. In the event we find ourselves in the midst of a disgruntled trader, we need to ignore and move on. Deal? Debate is healthy, arguing is not.
Good Luck and I hope the good folks of our community respect your wishes.
  • #3
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:33am Dec 12, 2007 5:33am
The on going debate about this silly thing called the Holy Grail of trading.

Like everything else in this world, we need catch words to grab peoples attention. So, in an attempt to not offend anyone we need to change the name. Maybe the Moley Quail or something...I don't know.


Anyway, our goal here is to trade to 100%, can we do it? If not, why not?
Robonacci com
  • #4
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:47am Dec 12, 2007 5:47am
Some facts as I know them.

It is entirely possible to trade perfectly.

Indicators are fun.

There is a repeating pattern in all markets that only a few know about.

Traders are inherently happy with sub par results as long as they have great money management skills.

Too many people have been told there isn't a "Moley Quail". But yet people search for it.

You need to clear your head and start over if you aren't profitable.
Robonacci com
  • #5
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:54am Dec 12, 2007 5:54am
I am happy with my current goal of +100% return a year. So I dont need to search 10 years long for a Holy Grail. Time wasting.

And oh yeah, +90% win ratio Holy Grail donīt exist...
Trainee at UBS Investment Banking
  • #6
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:54am Dec 12, 2007 5:54am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skunny http://forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
We've heard S/R crap, but draw yourself a chart similar to this (without the blue Gann lines) Now figure out what happens when these are penetrated (not broken) this is the first step. Now it is important that you watch this live. You can do this on Vhands trading EA (if you don't have it go to Bo's thread on Fibonacci Trading (tell'em I sent ya...lol, we use it all the time a MUST HAVE) Study the PA and follow it after a series of candles. (Bo is not explaining my trading but a great thread). After you trade this on Vhands for 2 months you are ready for more info. 2 months on Vhands is only 8 hours or so.


I've replayed this chart on Sierra ... So minor S/R gets cracked and price falls/shoots through... this is what you are trying to say? What is the difference between penetrated and broken? If something is penetrated then it has been broken.. To be honest I fail to see the probable edge.. perhaps we need that 'more info'

Answer to BOBBLONG

A trend line penetration is when the trend line gets punctured and retreats. As a result the candle does not close past the trend line. A break is when the candle penetrates and then establishes itself on the opposite side of the trend line.


Caution: (for a break) if you are trading a 15mn chart, be sure you know what 15mn candle you are on. The :15 and :45 candles are less significant, the :00 is most significant and the :30 is middle of the road. By watching these trend lines when price approaches and you make mental notes, you will become a better trader. If all you are after is a few pips here and there, placing orders in the opposite direction of the initial price action (at the trend line) will net a pretty good return ratio. The reason for this is your stops are incredibly tight and often times run from the trend line (temporarily) for 50 pips or better (GJ) before returning to break the trend line. But there is more important things going on that you need to watch for. You should retrade an entire year when you have time.

All of you that haven't retraded a year or better need to make it job 1.
Robonacci com
  • #7
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:59am Dec 12, 2007 5:59am
This looks like a great topic for discussion. Should be a lot of interesting points of view. Thanks for starting it.

BTW if there is ever a disruptive post or spam in any thread, just use this button in the upper right on the post in question, and a moderator will look into it pronto...

Regards,
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  • #8
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:07am Dec 12, 2007 6:07am
Hi Skunny, thanks for starting this thread.

I'll take the first challenge.

It's impossible to trade 100%. There will always be random events that throw the market against you. Unlike news, there's no advance warning. Just someone with billions that needs to make a transaction, and it just happens.

You're in a good trade, being patient, it's going your way, you've followed your system rules and plan, and bingo, the market goes 40 or 50 pips against you or more, and you're stopped out. You have to limit losses, so you have a stop, either hard or mental, and it gets hit.

Sometimes it goes your way and you get an extra 50 out of the trade. I've had it happen each way quite a few times. Sometimes luck does come into play, good or bad.

Now a lesson for those that haven't gotten this yet -- when a move like that happens and you're stopped out, it seems like the most right thing in the world, a very clever idea, to use that very move to recover the loss it just dealt you.

You can tell yourself, "it's breaking out, I'm gonna trade this breakout!" and so you reverse your position, with a larger trade, to try to catch a few pips and make up the damage.

You will learn to NEVER chase a trade, and that's just what that is. Don't do it. A spontaneous trade like that is never part of a trading plan or strategy, so it cannot be justified. Never chase the market.
  • #9
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:27am Dec 12, 2007 6:27am
Quoting blueruby
Hi Skunny, thanks for starting this thread.

I'll take the first challenge.

It's impossible to trade 100%. There will always be random events that throw the market against you. Unlike news, there's no advance warning. Just someone with billions that needs to make a transaction, and it just happens.

You're in a good trade, being patient, it's going your way, you've followed your system rules and plan, and bingo, the market goes 40 or 50 pips against you or more, and you're stopped out. You have to limit losses, so you have a stop, either hard or mental, and it gets hit.

Sometimes it goes your way and you get an extra 50 out of the trade. I've had it happen each way quite a few times. Sometimes luck does come into play, good or bad.

Now a lesson for those that haven't gotten this yet -- when a move like that happens and you're stopped out, it seems like the most right thing in the world, a very clever idea, to use that very move to recover the loss it just dealt you.

You can tell yourself, "it's breaking out, I'm gonna trade this breakout!" and so you reverse your position, with a larger trade, to try to catch a few pips and make up the damage.

You will learn to NEVER chase a trade, and that's just what that is. Don't do it. A spontaneous trade like that is never part of a trading plan or strategy, so it cannot be justified. Never chase the market.
Alright Blue! Here we go.............

You knew I would beg to differ and there are perfect answers to all your problems.

I'll start with your big order premise, big orders may disrupt the market for a moment but it never changes the flow. If you have your stops set on the correct cycle you would never get stopped out. If you set your stops at a certain number of pips you are destine for those type of losses.

In my worthless opinion, (IMWO) the first thing you need to identify before you trade is your stop area. Trade the lot size accordingly. If your stop is 100 pips away, less of a lot size, only 15 pips away you increase your lot size for the % you want to trade. But, you need to understand where that stop is. It's just not in a place you feel comfortable. When you see a candle explode for no reason, all its' doing is completing a cycle in order to move on. They always stop on the stop areas and reverse. Most don't know why and think the big bad broker is out to get them. Even if the banks run a stop to collect orders they never breach the current cycle it's in.
Robonacci com
  • #10
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:31am Dec 12, 2007 6:31am
Quoting smjones
This looks like a great topic for discussion. Should be a lot of interesting points of view. Thanks for starting it.

BTW if there is ever a disruptive post or spam in any thread, just use this button in the upper right on the post in question, and a moderator will look into it pronto...

Regards,
Thanks Scott, I hope it works out. I'd rather not flag anyone, but I will. Thanks for the well wishes.
Robonacci com
  • #11
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:39am Dec 12, 2007 6:39am
I posted this chart yesterday on another thread, before it entered into the gray area.

To address penetration and break. 1st candle tested, 2nd penetrated and 3rd broke.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 15 KB
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  • #12
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:45am Dec 12, 2007 6:45am
Quoting Skunny
But, you need to understand where that stop is. It's just not in a place you feel comfortable. When you see a candle explode for no reason, all its doing is completing a cycle in order to move on. They always stop on the stop areas and reverse. Most don't know why and think the big bad broker is out to get them. Even if the banks run a stop to collect orders they never breach the current cycle it's in.
Yes, more often than not, it reverses just past my stop, so the stop wasn't placed properly.

And, that frequent reverse is what prompted me to add the advice to my post. Lesson learned the hard way.

One main thing I'm working on right now is to choose my trades better so my R:R is where I want it.

I've been going into trades with a good setup, but the correct place for the stop is too wide, if I put it where it needs to be and reduce my position, then I won't make enough on the trade -- this is a trade to pass on, not an A++ trade.

The result of my taking those trades is huge drawdowns. If I place the stop where it needed to be and it gets hit, it's a huge loss because I took a "normal" position instead of reducing it for the wide stop. If I place it too close, my win/lose ratio suffers.

So, discipline is the word.

Another factor: if it's a really good trade with a nice R:R, other traders will be taking it, therefore the chances of it going the right direction are that much greater. If it's not, and nobody else is taking it, chances of failure are greater.
  • #13
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:50am Dec 12, 2007 6:50am
Quoting blueruby
Yes, more often than not, it reverses just past my stop, so the stop wasn't placed properly.

And, that frequent reverse is what prompted me to add the advice to my post. Lesson learned the hard way.

One main thing I'm working on right now is to choose my trades better so my R:R is where I want it.

I've been going into trades with a good setup, but the correct place for the stop is too wide, if I put it where it needs to be and reduce my position, then I won't make enough on the trade -- this is a trade to pass on, not an A++ trade.

The result of my taking those trades is huge drawdowns. If I place the stop where it needed to be and it gets hit, it's a huge loss because I took a "normal" position instead of reducing it for the wide stop. If I place it too close, my win/lose ratio suffers.

So, discipline is the word.

Another factor: if it's a really good trade with a nice R:R, other traders will be taking it, therefore the chances of it going the right direction are that much greater. If it's not, and nobody else is taking it, chances of failure are greater.
My advice is this,

Every trade is what it is, if you try to shape it to your comfort level or money management system you are poking a stick at the sleeping bear. He may wake up or keep sleeping, you just don't know. If the trade doesn't offer you the return don't take the trade.....this will get you closer to the Moley Quail.
Robonacci com
  • #14
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:05am Dec 12, 2007 7:05am
The question always seems to be.....why don't "systems" work the same for everyone?

Anyone want a go at this one? Or are you understanding now?

If you can learn how to trade, any system will work for you!

If you learn how to trade indicators, you know how to trade indicators. ( no offense to the indicator traders)

Switching from system to system looking to find some indicator that let's you off easy will end your trading career in the process.
Robonacci com
  • #15
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:15am Dec 12, 2007 7:15am
Just want to say this,

We all started out trading with the same knowledge (nothing) the traders that make it are the traders that stick it out after they blow an acct or 2. If you say you haven't blown an acct you are either lying or not trying. We all need to go through various stages to get where we are now. So, if you want to trade you can, it may take you longer than some, but you can get there if you have the desire.
Robonacci com
  • #16
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:18am Dec 12, 2007 7:18am
Quoting Skunny
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skunny http://forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif

Answer to BOBBLONG
Caution: (for a break) if you are trading a 15mn chart, be sure you know what 15mn candle you are on. The :15 and :45 candles are less significant, the :00 is most significant and the :30 is middle of the road. By watching these trend lines when price approaches and you make mental notes, you will become a better trader. If all you are after is a few pips here and there, placing orders in the opposite direction of the initial price action (at the trend line) will net a pretty good return ratio. The reason for this is your stops are incredibly tight and often times run from the trend line (temporarily) for 50 pips or better (GJ) before returning to break the trend line. But there is more important things going on that you need to watch for. You should retrade an entire year when you have time.

All of you that haven't retraded a year or better need to make it job 1.
Thanks for your reply,

However I'm not clear on what you meant so refer to the chart below and tell me if that was your intention. We see the second bar penetrated and retraced for a possible few pips into the next bar and then we have the break. Where is the trading opportunity on the break?

Regarding the topic of the thread.. Trading with high accuracy is the only reason I want to trade.. and do believe that exceptional win rate is very possible for those who have the right edge.. perhaps not 100% but way up there somewhere..

Bob
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: skunny.jpg Size: 58 KB
  • #17
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:31am Dec 12, 2007 7:31am
Quoting bobblong
Thanks for your reply,

However I'm not clear on what you meant so refer to the chart below and tell me if that was your intention. We see the second bar penetrated and retraced for a possible few pips into the next bar and then we have the break. Where is the trading opportunity on the break?

Regarding the topic of the thread.. Trading with high accuracy is the only reason I want to trade.. and do believe that exceptional win rate is very possible for those who have the right edge.. perhaps not 100% but way up there somewhere..

Bob
Sorry Bob, I didn't post the chart as a trade, although it was. Remember Bob you need to learn this in pieces. My point I made before about taking trades off the S/R lines is something you can't do until you retrade a ton of data on Vhands or something similar. The point I was making, is you can do it successfully (I rarely take that trade unless I know it goes for 70-100pips.). GY is best for those kind of trades, but you need to practice. It is more efficient on the target areas of s/r (where most don't know exists until they are there).

I think we are getting too complicated right now for some, so let's keep it simple. I'm not going to teach anyone how to take a specific trade, but I'll try to help with your preparation to trade and get you thinking a bit different. Stay focused on the message and practice the ideals.
Robonacci com
  • #18
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:32am Dec 12, 2007 7:32am
Quoting Skunny
All of you that haven't retraded a year or better need to make it job 1.
This is a recurring piece of advice I've been too lazy to take. Time to get on with it.

I'm not finding the Vhands EA, is it a trading simulator?

Using F12 on MT4 isn't too bad a way to go about it, but changing timeframes is really cumbersome. I suppose sticking to one t/f is still good exercise.

Help me out here, what's a good way to do this?
  • #19
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:37am Dec 12, 2007 7:37am
Quoting bobblong
Thanks for your reply,

However I'm not clear on what you meant so refer to the chart below and tell me if that was your intention. We see the second bar penetrated and retraced for a possible few pips into the next bar and then we have the break. Where is the trading opportunity on the break?

Regarding the topic of the thread.. Trading with high accuracy is the only reason I want to trade.. and do believe that exceptional win rate is very possible for those who have the right edge.. perhaps not 100% but way up there somewhere..

Bob
Sorry again, I misread your message a little. No you have it incorrect. When you make this trade and price is going north you want a sell order with a tp set. But you need to know how many pips to expect and you can do this by referring to the previous swing. I don't want to get into it more because it requires a lot of detail (sorry). Take my idea and test it, if that's how you want to trade. Thanks.
Robonacci com
  • #20
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:47am Dec 12, 2007 7:47am
Quoting Skunny
Just want to say this,

We all started out trading with the same knowledge (nothing) the traders that make it are the traders that stick it out after they blow an acct or 2. If you say you haven't blown an acct you are either lying or not trying. We all need to go through various stages to get where we are now. So, if you want to trade you can, it may take you longer than some, but you can get there if you have the desire.
I have blown 4 demo accounts before I know how this game played.
Trainee at UBS Investment Banking
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