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Aussie Pairs

  • #1,781
  • Jan 9, 2008 11:16am Jan 9, 2008 11:16am
Quoting Subdude
At the risk of starting an argument - can you explain to me how exactly the idea that a double top/bottom indicates a possible trend reversal reflects any fundamentals of the underlying? (I chose double top as a pretty simple example - substitute your favorite technical signal)
All Price is a reflection of the collective market belief of what the fundamentals mean. Most of the time, those fundamentals are so varied and complex that we don't bother paying attention to them, and we just watch the price action. This is why technical patterns don't always work 100% - because they're not what moves the market. Price is a symptom, not the cause.

Around news time, though, individual fundamentals are clearer and so we watch them as well as price.
  • #1,782
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:14pm Jan 9, 2008 6:14pm
Which pair is fast moving during AUD Indicators

AUD/USD or
AUD/JPY

Please advice

thanks
  • #1,783
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:17pm Jan 9, 2008 6:17pm
Quoting jacobtrader
Which pair is fast moving during AUD Indicators

AUD/USD or
AUD/JPY

Please advice

thanks
AJ moves faster, but they both move fairly well once they have a direction.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,784
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:18pm Jan 9, 2008 6:18pm
Aud/JPY
  • #1,785
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:20pm Jan 9, 2008 6:20pm
So you think for trade Balance AJ would be nice to trade?
  • #1,786
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:25pm Jan 9, 2008 6:25pm
Quoting DutchTrader
AJ moves faster, but they both move fairly well once they have a direction.
AUD/NZD is a safer bet, imho
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #1,787
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:54pm Jan 9, 2008 6:54pm
so any comments about the trade balance numbers?
  • #1,788
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:00pm Jan 9, 2008 7:00pm
Buy
AUD/USD
AUD/JPY

Jst sit and relax.. it will go up..

AUD/USD aim is 0.8882
AUD/JPY Aim is 98.43
  • #1,789
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:02pm Jan 9, 2008 7:02pm
Quoting jacobtrader
Buy
AUD/USD
AUD/JPY

Jst sit and relax.. it will go up..

AUD/USD aim is 0.8882
AUD/JPY Aim is 98.43
thanks.. i really need to relax...
  • #1,790
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:06pm Jan 9, 2008 7:06pm
And if i were you.
Would have buy USD/JPY
And relax. it will go to 110.40

Enjoy!
  • #1,791
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:13pm Jan 9, 2008 7:13pm
Just made a quick $200 on the positive news Now, the question is - how much upside momentum is left in AU. I'm guessing we have until the London open to ride it without a lot of risk exposure.
  • #1,792
  • Jan 9, 2008 9:23pm Jan 9, 2008 9:23pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Right now, AUD/USD is performing well while USD/JPY is struggling. Personally, unless I was intraday trading, I might look to trade just AUD/USD in the short term until the fundamental & technical picture improves for USD/JPY. The reason being is that by trading AUD/JPY, you're taking on all of the risk of the carry trade, and lately, you're only receiving the benefit of AUD/USD's strength. So why take on the carry trade risk (global equities, credit, etc) when you get a great pip return on just AUD/USD (with much less risk)?
Yo Trader KGB,
Thank you for your time and input. Excellent Point...I understand what you are saying about taking the risk of the volitile carry trade OUT when (in this case) USDJPY is not trending alike to AUDUSD.

You mentioned intraday trading, what is your take regarding the JPY cross?

For example: it seems if AU and UJ price action is trending up that it might likely move AJ upward and the way AJ moves could be a good move.

thanks,

JP
JP (A.K.A. HT)
  • #1,793
  • Jan 10, 2008 12:02am Jan 10, 2008 12:02am
When you put the Yen in the mix you can add a lot of mysterious price movements as the USDJPY seems to go up and down for various reasons. The carry trade thing is a bit of weak excuse IMO. I think it's about keeping Japan happy with exports to USD ... that way they will keep their huge pile of USD treasury bonds ... (just a little conspiracy theory to spice things up)
  • #1,794
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:24am Jan 10, 2008 1:24am
This question is not directly related to Aussie pairs, but since some of you here are in the loop on commodity moves I figure I'd ask anyway. I got some March mini-size gold futures today, and so far it looks like a disaster - it's down 5 points from my entry. Is there a good reason for the retracement or is it just plain old profit-taking and risk aversion? How much of a factor is the trend in gold price action? The hourly chart looks beautiful for longs, however... just not sure I'm willing to tie up my cash waiting for it to rebound, despite $900 seeming pretty realistic by month's end.
  • #1,795
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:43am Jan 10, 2008 1:43am
Quoting jacobtrader
Which pair is fast moving during AUD Indicators

AUD/USD or
AUD/JPY
If the "AUD indicators" have no affect on USD/JPY, then both AU and AJ will move equally.
  • #1,796
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:46am Jan 10, 2008 1:46am
Quoting hard times
You mentioned intraday trading, what is your take regarding the JPY cross?
In regards to what aspect? Volatility? Adherence to technical levels? Plenty of the former, less of the latter. I always track technical levels on the majors first and foremost. The crosses, being just constructs of the majors, have less adherence to intraday technical thresholds (imo).
  • #1,797
  • Jan 10, 2008 3:40am Jan 10, 2008 3:40am
Quoting Subdude
I got some March mini-size gold futures today, and so far it looks like a disaster - it's down 5 points from my entry. Is there a good reason for the retracement or is it just plain old profit-taking and risk aversion?

My target for the breakout of the triangle was 890 and hit that in Asian/European trading yesterday. I think gold needs a breather and wouldn't surprize to see a healthy sell off as new investors pile in.

I've been bullish gold since $270 so I've seen the runs being hit with massive sell offs to try and stop new entrants to gold.

Chart below.

Dennis Gartmann who has been quite bullish on gold also sold off 50% of his holdings so the 'smart' guys are exitting at the moment it seems.

One area that may push it further is that commercials are heavily short and if they are required to meet margin calls from equity market losses then maybe this could (or could have) pushed gold up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold chart 9 January, 2008.jpg Size: 192 KB
  • #1,798
  • Jan 10, 2008 3:59am Jan 10, 2008 3:59am
I'm in a buy on dips mode in terms of gold.

Nice chart BVB
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,799
  • Jan 10, 2008 4:10am Jan 10, 2008 4:10am
Quoting bvbfan
My target for the breakout of the triangle was 890 and hit that in Asian/European trading yesterday. I think gold needs a breather and wouldn't surprize to see a healthy sell off as new investors pile in.

I've been bullish gold since $270 so I've seen the runs being hit with massive sell offs to try and stop new entrants to gold.

Chart below.
Thanks for the great analysis and the chart. The RSI does indeed point to some overbought levels, but it's hard to imagine the rest of the month to be good for USD, provided the economic data due out in the meantime spell "recession" loud and clear. If that happens, I would expect gold to take to the sky. Then of course there's the comical factor of the start of the Indian wedding season... though not sure how much of a contribution to gold price it brings in reality.

Anyway, thanks again for the response; also found some old(er) forum threads on gold.
  • #1,800
  • Jan 10, 2008 4:14am Jan 10, 2008 4:14am
Quoting Subdude
Thanks for the great analysis and the chart. The RSI does indeed point to some overbought levels, but it's hard to imagine the rest of the month to be good for USD, provided the economic data due out in the meantime spell "recession" loud and clear. If that happens, I would expect gold to take to the sky. Then of course there's the comical factor of the start of the Indian wedding season... though not sure how much of a contribution to gold price it brings in reality.

Anyway, thanks again for the response; also found some old(er) forum threads on gold.
Indian wedding season is not comical at all, trust me. It actually affects physical demand for gold.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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