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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #1,341
  • Jan 8, 2008 2:54pm Jan 8, 2008 2:54pm
Quoting GridTrader
Hi Brunite. Nice post by the way. I too have seen where the fib levels will come together at times or really close. One thing I'd like to comment regarding your chart are those "opposite facing pin bars"...the one where you began to draw your fibs. From what I've seen pulling from those kind of setups on vhands usually seems to do pretty well.
Thanks Grid.

But.....don't give me the credit. That chart was one that Skunny posted. It really helped open my eyes to what I THINK he is trying to show us.....anyway....it is helping me see things in a way I never did before.

IMHO....
  • #1,342
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:09pm Jan 8, 2008 3:09pm
Quoting Brunite
Thanks Grid.

But.....don't give me the credit. That chart was one that Skunny posted. It really helped open my eyes to what I THINK he is trying to show us.....anyway....it is helping me see things in a way I never did before.

IMHO....

Obviously I am missing something. Brunite or Sizz...can you please post a chart?????

Thanks
  • #1,343
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:18pm Jan 8, 2008 3:18pm
Quoting 4X4EVER
Obviously I am missing something. Brunite or Sizz...can you please post a chart?????

Thanks
I'm pretty sure he was referring to the chart in my post # 1289.
  • #1,344
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:28pm Jan 8, 2008 3:28pm
I wanted to share my process for setting up my charts and see what you folks think. Please be gentle, but honest.

I have been evolving (or trying to) what is for me an efficient way to setup my charts. I think the sequence I follow leaves me with a very good "top-down" view of price action when I'm done. Hopefully others might find it useful and/or give me some feedback on what I can do differently to improve.

I have been demo trading these setups since last Wednesday after many of the things Skunny has been teaching began to finally sink in over the holiday break. My first trade was really just a single pair test on GJ. I netted +113 pips in about 30 minutes. Not a difficult thing for the GJ, but it was for ME. Before then, I had never had a single trade exceed 50 pips. I also never had a trade that seemed to find it's target in laser-guided missile fashion either...I was astonished and continue to be. Anywhooo...

I am currently trading 9 pairs (Eur$, Gbp$, $Chf, $Yen, EurYen, GbpYen, EurAud, Aud$, $Cad) just to get a feel for the ones I may wish to live trade. I will probably not trade more than 3 or 4 pairs live when I get to that point.

My goal is to find setups that I can trade for about 25-50 pips ballpark per pair. I find that I can see many good setups with pip targets in that range on the M15 charts. Keep in mind that a particular setup can be traded from multiple chart TF's, depending on your zoom level. In learning to trade PAS/R, I have found that it is better to zoom out one level than I normally traded before. It's just a better spatial perspective for me that really makes the S/R levels jump out at me. Give it a try and it may work for some of you too.

To get setup, the first chart I look at is the DAILY, zoomed out to about 10 months so I can easily spot significant S/R regions. I will place two fib pulls on this chart, one labeled WEEKLY and the other DAILY. I color code the fibos and place the "WEEKLY" or "DAILY" label on the 50% retrace level line so I can identify which fib pull I'm looking at when I finally zoom down to my working M15 chart. The fibo color coding remains consistent on all the charts which makes it easier to identify the upper level fibs. I also add the "%$" code to the end of my description field on the fibo tool which causes the fib level price to show up on the line. This allows me to set my entry orders far more easily. Here is what my D1 and H1 setups looks like. Keep in mind I do not trade from here...this just gives me an overview:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: week_day_fibos.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: hourly_fibos.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #1,345
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:28pm Jan 8, 2008 3:28pm
Once I set the H1 fibo pull, I drop down to M15, zoomed out to about 2 1/2 days. I pull a fib that is the most recent, "visually significant" range of S/R which has not yet been penetrated/breached. This fib pull will engulf or contain within its range all the price action down to the most current tick. It will also need to be large enough to yield a trade target within my desired goal of 25-50 pips depending on the pair. If the range I select is too narrow and the -38.2/138.2 extensions only offer 15 pips profit, then I will move back in time to the next larger unbreached range that meets my profit goals. A copy of my M15 setup view is attached to the bottom of this post.

You can select larger targets, but hitting them may mean staying in a trade overnight or a weekend, both of which I prefer to avoid unless it's a positive swap trade and I'm happy with the trade's overall progress and potential.

In general, I try to setup the higher fib pulls the same way, trying to find the most recent, visually significant S/R range which might have an effect on the M15 fibo range I will ultimately be trading. This all takes practice to get it where it works for YOU and your trading style. But I will say that I think I'm on the right track based on how close I'm coming to my pip goals and trade flow. I find that once I setup my 2 higher level fibs, I can pull (or readjust) all my H1 and M15 fibs fairly quickly, set my new pending entries and targets on all nine pairs, and be done for the evening in about 1 hour if I don't get sucked into the vortex of reading one of Sizz's side-splitting, whacko posts!

I really just got the chart setups partially lined out late Sunday night (I'm in EST), so I only traded 7 pair setups at UK open on Monday morning, with two of them not triggering an entry. So I had five trades yesterday, all winners for net +166 pips. Last night, I finally had all the ducks lined up and went into UK this morning with a full nine setups. I let the trades run through the late Asian, UK, and early NY sessions. I closed three trades at the end of my trading day (11:00am) that were in the red. The other six were winners.

I had significant retraces on 3 or 4 of the trades back to the 50% level. I added an extra position on two of them (didn't try it on the others) which helped out very nicely. I mainly just set entries and TP's right on the fib lines and let price do its thing, unless I'm not going to monitor. In that case, I'll cushion the entries/TP's by a few pips on both sides in case a target is missed. I actually had one order that was filled by the broker one pip ahead of the actual fib entry target. This was the $Chf which in fact turned out to be a loser...there was not even a TOUCH of the fib line.

If I get a retrace to a 50% or 61.8% inner level fib, then I will add a position at either one (not both) of those levels. I have yet to have a trade with a valid entry signal move totally to the 0/100 against me, but I know it's a possibility cuz I've seen it on the charts. If so, I will do the same thing and just add on another position to get me back into net profit more quickly. I don't set manual SL's, but I would exit at the opposite 0/100 level if necessary. Here are my results from Wednesday Jan 2nd through today:

Wed: +113 (1 trade)
Thurs: +246 (3 trades, 1 loser G/U)
Fri: +85 (2 trades, no losers)
Mon: +166 (5 trades, no losers)
Tue: +170 (9 Trades, 3 losers)

Total: +780 pips


M15 CHART SETUP:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: m15 fibos.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #1,346
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:39pm Jan 8, 2008 3:39pm
Quoting Brunite

I seemed to notice, even after playing around with time frames down to 1M........something that leads me to offer the following theory for Skunny's review:

I am going to go out on a limb and suggest the following:


It seems that almost any price swing.....on any time frame..... between a high and low that suggests some S&R can be fibbed and once price breaks out of that range (0-100), it will eventually get to the 138 extension ( and 162 on a real strong move).


I may be all wet here but this phenomenon has seemed to hold out more often than not....has anyone else seen this?....

I seems to hold pretty close even on 1M chart swings....pretty cool.

Again....not sure if this is where Skunny is pointing us but I'm throwing this against the wall to see if anything sticks.

If this continues to hold (or not).....I am also wondering is there is some point (identifiable or not) that these fib levels will eventually meet or line up on top of each other indicating some sort of change in direction?....sequence?....

Skunny......am I on to something here?
This is how I see it too and I pulled about 4% of my account out of the market last night using this type of set up for buy and profit targets in large and smaller tf's. When setting up fib's in lower tf's I look for confluence as well such as minor fib's lining up with major fib levels, particularly 0/100's of the minor fibs with the larger fib levels.

A small observation about fib's, if we all pulled our fib's in any time frame we would all get a different set ups, true? Now, I bet pounds to pence that there if we laid all these fib's over each other there would be confluence of some fib levels everywhere! It might mean a sell signal for one person and a buy for another and these two signals could come from completely different tf's, this is the beauty of it and it makes for a good liquid market.

If fib's are the 'self fulfilling prophecy' then I think this is why.
I know I'll be trading it until it runs out of steam but taking my thoughts above, I don't think it will be any time soon. It would be a rare occasion that the majority of the market pulled exactly the same fib!
  • #1,347
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:18pm Jan 8, 2008 4:18pm
Quoting Skunny
Hey, thanks Brunite I really appreciate it.

We have a foundation called the Stephen Raymond Foundation(named after my son that has passed), it is supported by the Minnesota Community Foundation. It was an idea of mine for sometime now, to get a group of traders together that donate 3-5 pips per hundred I help them make. Something obviously voluntary. But I appreciate you putting us on your list. PM me if you need any detailed info. We need all the help we can get. You will need a tax deduction from all your pips anyway.
Skunny,

Have you considered having your foundation (or a corp owned by the foundation) set up an IB relationship with a FX broker and then your foundation could get a portion of all the trading volumes from folks who established their accounts through you??
  • #1,348
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:25pm Jan 8, 2008 4:25pm
Quoting Pipskateer
Skunny,

Have you considered having your foundation (or a corp owned by the foundation) set up an IB relationship with a FX broker and then your foundation could get a portion of all the trading volumes from folks who established their accounts through you??
I'm not sure, but I think forex doesn't work for that. I know there are approved "risk" type funds the foundation can participate in. I think forex is not approved. I could always transfer any proceeds personally I guess. Your idea never crossed my mind. Thanks!
Robonacci com
  • #1,349
  • Jan 8, 2008 5:33pm Jan 8, 2008 5:33pm
Quoting Skunny
I'm not sure, but I think forex doesn't work for that. I know there are approved "risk" type funds the foundation can participate in. I think forex is not approved. I could always transfer any proceeds personally I guess. Your idea never crossed my mind. Thanks!
That's why I mentioned possibly having the Foundation setup another corporation (that it would own/control) to actually serve as the IB entity. The corp IB profits would then go to the foundation as shareholder income from the corp. On the foundation's books it wouldn't be Forex income, it would be dividends from stock ownership.

Just something to kick around. Hey, does that mean I gave YOU something to think about?
  • #1,350
  • Jan 8, 2008 7:10pm Jan 8, 2008 7:10pm
Hi Islander,

How do you get your fibs in separate place individually in the same screen. Mine clutter everywhere and can't read at all. Thanks.
  • #1,351
  • Jan 8, 2008 7:26pm Jan 8, 2008 7:26pm
Tax deductible checks should be made out to The Stephen Raymond Foundation, but mailed to Minnesota Community Foundation - 55 Fifth Street East - Suite 600 St Paul, MN 55101-1797. A sincere thanks to all that asked for this information.
Robonacci com
  • #1,352
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:04pm Jan 8, 2008 11:04pm
Quoting SedonaPipper
Ok skunny - my first trade using what I have learned so far from your guidance – I have been involved with this thread from day one and for the most part have just absorbed the material drawing a few fibs and watching what happens. Not wanting new information to get in the way of my regular trading plays I didn’t take any trades using what I have learned until today. One of my set-ups worked like a charm this morning when I combined what I have learned on this thread with what I already do. I was profitable on 5 currencies using the same set-up and could have used it on a couple of more. Some days that will happen and some days like yesterday, I don’t get an entry. Today was the first use of what I have learned so far to trade perfectly, which is the primary focus of this thread – I made a commitment to share with the thread if I had something that was of value so here goes.
My play is pretty simple and is based on an article I read about how the market will retrace 23% from the day low or high over 90% of the time. The problem is figuring out the day high or low. Because of where I live, my best times to trade are either the Asian market or the New York market. Honestly, I used to hate the New York market and its volatility until I figured this play out. The play is quite simple – if a currency is making a new high or low around 14:00 gmt during the New York market – take the counter trend trade to the 23% retracement. The difference today was that I used the fibs extensions of the last price swing on the 1 hour charts to figure out the where the high and low for the day would be and was ready when price hit the extensions. Your input helped take the guess work out of the set – up. Look at the aud/jpy for an example.
Looking at the chart now, I see that I could have taken the trend trade first and then the reversal. At the time all I could see was the set-up for the reversal trade. So maybe I didn’t trade perfectly after all. The second guessing never ends does it.
Hi Sedona,

Would you post a chart using the above example?

Thanks
  • #1,353
  • Edited 12:47am Jan 9, 2008 12:25am | Edited 12:47am
Good Morning!

Anything shaking around here? Hey anyone fibbed out ey? I can;t tell if I just got the best entry ever or or am selling a rally

it is a pip or two over so I am cool with it but would like others thoughts as I am still blowing these up here and there. This is in no way a trade I would have entered for any reason other then fibs.

Sizz

er looks like it was the top? ...


edit... this could still smoke me but... this is what I am toying with to get a darn near awesome perfect entries. if this is right... I got into EY short with a 4 pip stop (mental not market)

must trust fibs ,must trust fibs the discretionary part of this for me is about 3-4 pips.
  • #1,354
  • Edited 1:00am Jan 9, 2008 12:58am | Edited 1:00am
there's a lot of consolidation on the EUR/USD......


edit: USD/JPY fibs been berry berry good to me already
trading naked.......
  • #1,355
  • Edited 1:56am Jan 9, 2008 1:14am | Edited 1:56am
I had schuper schweet time with UY too. It was very well behaved

Anything good for you right now? I am in on a PASR euraud short play on the 4hr with fib confirmation and and vanilla fib ej short.. Nothing else really tickled my pickle so to speak.

Have you whipped these on equities yet?


Sizz

edit here is that chart,

I figured out what I did wrong it started with me thinking I knew what I was doing looks to be a good fib. Time will tell... I forgot to scale out and get the full picture . If you look at the 15 min you see a nice shooting star could be wrong but still looks good tp at 159.27 i put mine at .35
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nice.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #1,356
  • Jan 9, 2008 2:08am Jan 9, 2008 2:08am
I'm done with my Yennie for now, maybe wait for some retrace down...

It's now 7 minutes after London open, I'm waiting for that mess to bust up on the E/U.....
trading naked.......
  • #1,357
  • Jan 9, 2008 2:21am Jan 9, 2008 2:21am
Quoting piphitman
I'm done with my Yennie for now, maybe wait for some retrace down...

It's now 7 minutes after London open, I'm waiting for that mess to bust up on the E/U.....

yup looks like she is southbound good looking 15m chart though eh? LOL you can hear its ribs cracking under the pressure

Sizz
  • #1,358
  • Jan 9, 2008 4:32am Jan 9, 2008 4:32am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wedgie.gif Size: 17 KB
Robonacci com
  • #1,359
  • Jan 9, 2008 4:45am Jan 9, 2008 4:45am
Quoting Skunny



very good!

and very helpful too! its going to take me a week to see how i got my fibs wrong on cable tonight though..... sigh......
  • #1,360
  • Jan 9, 2008 4:47am Jan 9, 2008 4:47am
Quoting dagoods


very good!

and very helpful too! its going to take me a week to see how i got my fibs wrong on cable tonight though..... sigh......
I just wanted to give everyone a wedgie before I go for the day
Robonacci com
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