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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #1,301
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:20am Jan 8, 2008 10:20am
So far during this session, cable has moved more than 215 pips (+125 then -90) and GJ 480 and still counting, so plenty of scope to get pips. - LOL Sizzler, not bad for a lackluster day in cable and the stinky donkey pig![/quote]


I know I know I am just ribbing it it is really more of a manbearpig cross anyways. Man/Bearpig or manbear/pig depending on your broker.

it is really a great pair. I am just sore at my own bad judgement in relation to it recently

So wait, you are rocking the range on hourly bars and playing 1's and 5's on bounces and using pierces as tp levels? I assume

I have been wrestling with finding the "right" way for me to trade this Hitting trade and running on the 1's and 5's for pips isn;t my normal thing, but thats what I said about pork rinds before I tried those too!..now I love the darn things as gross as they are.... Then again pork rinds don;t make me start sweating, stop talking and feel like a heart attack is coming until I am done with them. I might have to restock my rogaine if I use the tiny tfs

it DOES sounds like a good blend of active trading and efficiency if you can drain a decent amt of the range a day you don;t have to trade multi pairs. I am always open to new stuff. Thanks for the idea. My cardiologist and or lawyer may be calling you soon! hehehe j/k i like the idea.

Sizz
  • #1,302
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:36am Jan 8, 2008 10:36am
Quoting Islander
Hi Brunite - It seems that several of us are following a similar path. Now that I am putting 2 sets of fibs on each time frame and continually deleting the one that has a completed move I too am finding that it is greatly helping my trading - sorry, I dont do demo, only live for real pips has any meaning for me.

I trade GBPJPY in the European session and hence from 1am EST until around 1pm EST - so the 12 hourly bars are great for the overview and main move, the 48 x 15 mins help me to keep track during my trading day and 144 x 5m and 720 x 1m bars get me my pips.

The interplay of the swings on the 5m and 1m with the appropriate fibos are amazing to watch - I completed 5 sets on the 1m GJ alone!

So far during this session, cable has moved more than 215 pips (+125 then -90) and GJ 480 and still counting, so plenty of scope to get pips. - LOL Sizzler, not bad for a lackluster day in cable and the stinky donkey pig!
I understand exactly what you are saying! Nice to see some of us thinking along the same lines. Time will tell if this is where Skunny is pointing us....if this type of pip action is only 20% of what he has up his sleeve......Whoaaa!
  • #1,303
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:41am Jan 8, 2008 10:41am
Quoting Islander
Hi Daniel - just a point of definition - I think you have the wording reversed on your first chart. On 7 Jan, the short horizontal pale blue line is acting as Resistance - its Above the price and the next day it is Under the price and acting as Support.

I woke up this morning and got long during the Frankfurt Hour - again, loads of fibo relationships on the short time frames - and a nice pull back too!

You are so right! resistance becomes support is right. I am backwards anyway!!!!
  • #1,304
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:42am Jan 8, 2008 10:42am
Quoting Pip Hunter
Question...your moving your fib after it's completed. What are you considering it as completed? 162/-62 or 138/-38? The reason I ask is that I've considered the cycle complete at times if the 138/-38 is hit to the pip, otherwise I change at the 162/-62. So I was wondering if you were doing something similar?

Any other comments from others is obviously welcome!
Pip Hunter,

85% ain't bad....kinda what I've been seeing.....yet there seems to be even more to this as Skunny has intimated.....all I can say is wow.

He just might end up being a candidate for sainthood (lol)!

As far as your question to Islander....I've been kinda playing the way you suggest you have......maybe within a few pips of the 138 though.....although many are hitting it on the eye. I think Skunny did mention that he tries not to be too greedy and grab when the getting is good.
  • #1,305
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:42am Jan 8, 2008 10:42am
Like majic...the pair hit the 138 retraced and almost nailed to the pip the 162..I know its a 4hr chart..but I'm still impressed..thanks Skunny!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,306
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:51am Jan 8, 2008 10:51am
I was working on replacing all of the fibs that I used on todays cable chart - attached.

Doing better thanks Pip Hunter - and thanks to Skunny for getting me back into fibs - I'm the sort of guy that likes to have some targets to aim for - even if they're not hit, that also tells us something about the current price action.

As you can see, I also use retracements a lot, the 50% seems to work well in these short TFs. As I'm intra day swing trading I'll have exited my trade off the 1m and then wait for the pull back to re-enter and once I have and price has started continuing the prior move I'll put on a new fib, looking for the extension targets and remove the fib that I used for the retrace.

It still very much "work in progress" !

Hi Sizz - lol - I just had to rib too!

The "right way" is different for all of us, at the moment I can spend several hours near my screen, so this very short TF stuff works for me and GJ often goes 100 - 150 pips in the first hour - two hours, so if I'm trading well I can get plenty of pips and take a break or leave some of my position open with wider stops and targets.

Right now its close to Sundowner time here in Europe, so I´ll be shaking hands with Don San Miguel, before checking on Seńor Rioja - hope Messers Bass Ale and Captain Morgan will join me later - lawyers not allowed, but a cardiologist might be useful!!

Cheers http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Edit - apologies, the lables moved a bit as I was looking at something else - hopefully they should still make sense.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,307
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:57am Jan 8, 2008 10:57am
Gold just completed!! gorgeous! A+ golf claps golf claps.

and is bound upwards yet.. it is so nuts to watch the markets interaction... as gold shot up carry pairs got killed I am sure the buck got smashed too. You might be able to use market correlation to confirm and or forecast price moves in different markets might..

Yess Skunny definately deserves something awesome. I personally feel like even though I "THINK" I know what I am doing I don;t but even this much learned is a life debt. seriously. Amazing. Skunny I will buy you a steel rod reinforced concrete chair. hehehe

Now I am going to spend the rest of my life waiting for it to "break' hehehe



Sizz.
  • #1,308
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:02am Jan 8, 2008 11:02am
Ok Traders,

Sizz you and Brunite....because of the sense that I can read you are getting it...can you take a look at this chart. Ok...it has fullfilled the lower 138 (Sunday) but it has not fullfilled the upper one, as I eluded to earlier. Now, I am long this pair and down around 13 pips or so. Can I feel "confident"?+:"#$^&*(&........it makes me a little ansy and that's why I need support NPI

Can you guys give me some FB?

Thanks much
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,309
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:02am Jan 8, 2008 11:02am
Quoting RBing
I brought up trading a counter trade to the first penetration and decided to start trading it live on the smaller time frames. So far I've traded it live off of the 30m and 1hr and I must say it's been very successful. I typically use a sl of half way in between the 0 or 100 and the 138 extension and then a tp of the 38 retracement. That gives me a 2 to 1 profit to loss ratio and I know for a fact it hits a better than 50% rate, I'm not sure of the actual percentage but I'll say it has to be in the 60's.

What's great is once it goes down or up to the 38, I take profit and then get back in going towards the initial penetration. At this point even if it goes against me I'm ok because of the profit I just took out.

FYI- I've been traded this live so I know it really works.
I trade a similar method to the 2nd half of yours. I don't see much benefit of being ~50% correct in guessing which 100 penetration is going to hit 138 and holding a large drawdown, plus I'm 99.9% sure that Skunny just provided that example as food for thought and people here ran with it into live trading without thorough backtesting (it is more effective than most indicators from what I see though).

If you know there is a range, why trade TO the extreme of the range when you can trade FROM the extreme? It's not 100% (yet ), but backtesting shows it's very effective as long as you actively manage the trade and don't place orders during/before news.
  • #1,310
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:04am Jan 8, 2008 11:04am
I couldn't find how to edit the chart, so here's a clearer one...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jan 8 cable 5m 1530.gif Size: 12 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,311
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:11am Jan 8, 2008 11:11am
Quoting Islander
...I'm the sort of guy that likes to have some targets to aim for - even if they're not hit, that also tells us something about the current price action.
Not to mention the confidence that I have had placing stop-losses. No more arbitrary placement . By placing my stops in "logical" out-of-reach places, I'm not getting stopped out at all. My exits have been at TP's BE's or jumping off the ship till it finishes retracing (which I now have targets for!)

This alone is priceless for me as my "too close" stops were killing me....even though I might have been correct overall in direction.

Skunny.....thank you again!
  • #1,312
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:18am Jan 8, 2008 11:18am
Quoting Islander
I couldn't find how to edit the chart, so here's a clearer one...
Nice chart Islander. I take it you are taking your trades then when price hits a retracement to the pip so to speak?
  • #1,313
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:39am Jan 8, 2008 11:39am
Hey Everyone,

I'm not ignoring what's going on here. I've been working with Bo'bokus on some ideas we'll be posting soon.

You guys are having some good conversation I see. I'll be tied up for a few days, among other things I'm taking my mom a 1 day b-day vacation tomorrow.

Keep up the good work
Robonacci com
  • #1,314
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:40am Jan 8, 2008 11:40am
That was quite the cat nap. You going to share with us your picture of Bo at the family picnic?
PipHunter
  • #1,315
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:42am Jan 8, 2008 11:42am
Quoting Pip Hunter
That was quite the cat nap. You going to share with us your picture of Bo at the family picnic?
I'm not sure if he would approve of it being on the internet. But, I'll put it here just for you to view. EVERYBODY ELSE TURN AWAY.
Attached Image
Robonacci com
  • #1,316
  • Edited 12:01pm Jan 8, 2008 11:47am | Edited 12:01pm
Quoting 4X4EVER
Ok Traders,

Sizz you and Brunite....because of the sense that I can read you are getting it...can you take a look at this chart. Ok...it has fullfilled the lower 138 (Sunday) but it has not fullfilled the upper one, as I eluded to earlier. Now, I am long this pair and down around 13 pips or so. Can I feel "confident"?+:"#$^&*(&........it makes me a little ansy and that's why I need support NPI

Can you guys give me some FB?

Thanks much
Yikes hermano..

I am many things a big rambling windbag, a terrible dancer, a bit of a wino if the mood strikes and a big fan of doritos, but I would
NEVER
ever give anyone serious live trade advice, too much responsibility for the love of pete,I mean my favorite shoes are slippers I like my "wrong" extra expensive!

hehehe this may help or not.. but the minute ( I don't always do this obviously dur..doctor heal thyself) but the minute I am in a trade and i don't know why any more.. and I start questioning I think it might be time to get out and look at what you traded..if you are re-analyzing after the fact something stinks.

That might help or not , but that is MY opinion from experiance.. hehe the panic ,the doubt.. the hope... the anger, the loss ...sigh good times. a continual trading lesson for this big dufus personally.

Sizz

EDIT: here is how I see the cable right now personally.. draw your own conclusions
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gutrade.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #1,317
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:52am Jan 8, 2008 11:52am
Islander,

I had never traded the 5's or 1's before till I saw your post yesterday on them.....that was excellent work that got me thinking.....I had always heard/read all the people who would say "it's just noise, don't trade it" so I didn't........

I was working with the exact same 5 min chart last night as you posted.
I already had my hourly fibs set and then I went down to the 5 min chart and over towards the left of that 5 min chart you can see that there was a mini 5 min chart consolidation that was happening so I placed a fib on that as well and played it when it broke to the upside, then it hit the hourly upside target as well, played that to the 138 and got out, then got back in on the short side after it hit the 162.

Brunite,

excellent posts, thinking outside the box at ALL S/R and time frame possibilities.

Can hardly wait for some more Skunny tidbits
trading naked.......
  • #1,318
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:57am Jan 8, 2008 11:57am
Hi Brunite - been there too, got the "stops" tee shirt - thanks to Skunny and FTI I'm now keeping out of way of the stop sweeping - most of the time!

Hi Macbow - lol, I wish - its still work in progress and often I'll have taken profit too early and for entries, I'm waiting to see the start of the move, so leaving pips on the table there too.

As we learn more and I get more practice and confidence I expect to improve my capture of a greater ammount of each swing - for now I'm happy in gaining consistency in my trading, whilst learning more about this naked trading - its still a bit chilly for me!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,319
  • Jan 8, 2008 12:18pm Jan 8, 2008 12:18pm
Quoting 4X4EVER
Ok Traders,

Sizz you and Brunite....because of the sense that I can read you are getting it...can you take a look at this chart. Ok...it has fullfilled the lower 138 (Sunday) but it has not fullfilled the upper one, as I eluded to earlier. Now, I am long this pair and down around 13 pips or so. Can I feel "confident"?+:"#$^&*(&........it makes me a little ansy and that's why I need support NPI

Can you guys give me some FB?

Thanks much
Like Sizz says....

I am no one to be giving anyone trade advice (let alone myself sometimes...lol).

But, I will offer up something to think about.

It looks as though both penetrations took place going into a lot of news. It was headed lower after breaking through support....that move fell short of 138.......spiked up past resistance (0) on the news....then fell back down and broke 138.

What's it all mean?.....heck if I know......but it is food for thought.

This is all new to me.

Will that high at 198.69 be met because of that "spike" break-out?.....I have no clue.....Skunny will have to address that.

What I can say is that I have traded several nice "swings" since the one you are looking at......dunno if I'd be too focused on "possible anomolies (sp)" when good old "regular" PA has been looking good in so many other places.

My motto has always been: "When in doubt.....get out!" (apologies to Johnnie Cochran).

Again.....all this IMHO......what do I know.....
  • #1,320
  • Jan 8, 2008 12:26pm Jan 8, 2008 12:26pm
Ok skunny - my first trade using what I have learned so far from your guidance – I have been involved with this thread from day one and for the most part have just absorbed the material drawing a few fibs and watching what happens. Not wanting new information to get in the way of my regular trading plays I didn’t take any trades using what I have learned until today. One of my set-ups worked like a charm this morning when I combined what I have learned on this thread with what I already do. I was profitable on 5 currencies using the same set-up and could have used it on a couple of more. Some days that will happen and some days like yesterday, I don’t get an entry. Today was the first use of what I have learned so far to trade perfectly, which is the primary focus of this thread – I made a commitment to share with the thread if I had something that was of value so here goes.
My play is pretty simple and is based on an article I read about how the market will retrace 23% from the day low or high over 90% of the time. The problem is figuring out the day high or low. Because of where I live, my best times to trade are either the Asian market or the New York market. Honestly, I used to hate the New York market and its volatility until I figured this play out. The play is quite simple – if a currency is making a new high or low around 14:00 gmt during the New York market – take the counter trend trade to the 23% retracement. The difference today was that I used the fibs extensions of the last price swing on the 1 hour charts to figure out the where the high and low for the day would be and was ready when price hit the extensions. Your input helped take the guess work out of the set – up. Look at the aud/jpy for an example.
Looking at the chart now, I see that I could have taken the trend trade first and then the reversal. At the time all I could see was the set-up for the reversal trade. So maybe I didn’t trade perfectly after all. The second guessing never ends does it.
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