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Aussie Pairs

  • #1,741
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:44pm Jan 8, 2008 3:44pm
Quoting Subdude
I wouldn't go as far as attributing the fall to the double top, given the mid-day Dow collapse.
Yep, risk aversion as has been the case since Oct. Japanese will probably continue selling, might push us through those EMAs. I hope
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,742
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:51pm Jan 8, 2008 3:51pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Yep, risk aversion as has been the case since Oct. Japanese will probably continue selling, might push us through those EMAs. I hope
Are you now short? :surprised
  • #1,743
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:59pm Jan 8, 2008 3:59pm
Quoting Subdude
Are you now short? :surprised
Nope, I shorted Nzd/Jpy I didn't bother with the Aud/Jpy but might in the Asia session
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,744
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:17pm Jan 8, 2008 4:17pm
Quoting Subdude
I wouldn't go as far as attributing the fall to the double top, given the mid-day Dow collapse.
Also the USDCAD rally...helped the drop.
  • #1,745
  • Jan 8, 2008 6:20pm Jan 8, 2008 6:20pm
So Anyone trading AUD/USD.

Retail Sales coming out shortly
  • #1,746
  • Jan 8, 2008 6:33pm Jan 8, 2008 6:33pm
got in @ .8795... yeehaaaaw!
  • #1,747
  • Jan 8, 2008 6:36pm Jan 8, 2008 6:36pm
Any ideas on price target for AJ and AU. AJ I am looking at 97.50 region strong resistence there
  • #1,748
  • Jan 8, 2008 6:39pm Jan 8, 2008 6:39pm
Quoting Subdude
got in @ .8795... yeehaaaaw!
???

Nice, but not much of a jump thus far.

edit: nm it's moving now - I was doing chores forgot about this trade.
  • #1,749
  • Jan 8, 2008 6:42pm Jan 8, 2008 6:42pm
Don't know about AJ, but I would expect AU to reach 0.8850 fairly easily... IF only the annoying Asian markets don't hold it down again. Otherwise, buckle up for safety.
  • #1,750
  • Jan 8, 2008 6:57pm Jan 8, 2008 6:57pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Also the USDCAD rally...helped the drop.

Some of you seem to be forgetting the basic meaning behind price action. Remember, price is a symptom of the fundamentals. This is why technical trading works, because it's a net sum of all the various fundamental elements at play.

Runny nose = cold, usually. The virus causes it, but what we see and respond to is the snot.
  • #1,751
  • Jan 8, 2008 7:11pm Jan 8, 2008 7:11pm
Quoting Ninto
Some of you seem to be forgetting the basic meaning behind price action. Remember, price is a symptom of the fundamentals. This is why technical trading works, because it's a net sum of all the various fundamental elements at play.

Runny nose = cold, usually. The virus causes it, but what we see and respond to is the snot.
At the risk of starting an argument - can you explain to me how exactly the idea that a double top/bottom indicates a possible trend reversal reflects any fundamentals of the underlying? (I chose double top as a pretty simple example - substitute your favorite technical signal)
  • #1,752
  • Jan 8, 2008 7:11pm Jan 8, 2008 7:11pm
Quoting jacobtrader
Retail Sales coming out shortly
Excellent numbers

Though I doubt the next retail numbers will be as fantastic due to the recent hikes by the banks and the urge of cautionary spending by some government official.

C'mon 0.885+
Just trying to make some dollars and sense...
  • #1,753
  • Jan 8, 2008 7:56pm Jan 8, 2008 7:56pm
Crap, I got stopped out for a lower profit than I wanted...
  • #1,754
  • Jan 8, 2008 9:11pm Jan 8, 2008 9:11pm
Hello everyone,

I am only a year and some change into my education of the FX market. I enjoy trading the AUDJPY cross pair. Here is my question:

Can anyone be so kind to share strategies, indicators, time frames, market conditions, etc... that have potential to create profits trading this pair? I would like to sharpen my skills trading this pair, as I have been demoing a strategy trading this pair.

I know this is a weighted question, however, anyone who can shead some light on this pair for me or guide me to info that can it would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks.
JP (A.K.A. HT)
  • #1,755
  • Jan 8, 2008 9:31pm Jan 8, 2008 9:31pm
Quoting hard times
Can anyone be so kind to share strategies, indicators, time frames, market conditions, etc... that have potential to create profits trading this pair?
My own philosophy regarding crosses is to focus much more on the underlying majors rather than the cross itself. Find out what is driving them and the current technical & fundamental situation on them. When you find both of the majors in agreement (ex. trending in the same direction) that's the best time to be in the cross. A great example of this recently is CAD/JPY in mid-December, where both USD/JPY and USD/CAD were setting up perfectly in agreement and lead to a nice 700-pip run on the cross.

Right now, AUD/USD is performing well while USD/JPY is struggling. Personally, unless I was intraday trading, I might look to trade just AUD/USD in the short term until the fundamental & technical picture improves for USD/JPY. The reason being is that by trading AUD/JPY, you're taking on all of the risk of the carry trade, and lately, you're only receiving the benefit of AUD/USD's strength. So why take on the carry trade risk (global equities, credit, etc) when you get a great pip return on just AUD/USD (with much less risk)?

The second recommendation I can make is to always be aware of the fib levels on the larger timeframe. Regardless of whether you follow fibs, they have played a role in many of the carry crosses, and as you can see in the attached chart, AUD/JPY certainly has respected certain fib levels rather closely (namely the 38.2 and 61.8). Good luck in your trades!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #1,756
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:16pm Jan 8, 2008 11:16pm
i got a qns to ask all of you... since jpy int rate is so small while aud is high, can i say tt there will always be a carry situation for life... i noe market will goes up n down but eventually, it will rise rite? am i oso right to say so that aud/jpy will not go below price 50 since last btm was at 55 in 2001. i need all ur feedback...
  • #1,757
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:33pm Jan 8, 2008 11:33pm
Quoting Holypendant
i got a qns to ask all of you... since jpy int rate is so small while aud is high, can i say tt there will always be a carry situation for life... i noe market will goes up n down but eventually, it will rise rite? am i oso right to say so that aud/jpy will not go below price 50 since last btm was at 55 in 2001. i need all ur feedback...
Why would you ever assume such ultimatums? "for life" Of course the BoJ could raise rates and effectively end the carry. AUD/JPY could go to 30 or 300.
  • #1,758
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:39pm Jan 8, 2008 11:39pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Why would you ever assume such ultimatums? "for life" Of course the BoJ could raise rates and effectively end the carry. AUD/JPY could go to 30 or 300.

so it means if BOJ raise it rates till it's not attractive to investor, means the carry gonna end?
  • #1,759
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:47pm Jan 8, 2008 11:47pm
Quoting Holypendant
so it means if BOJ raise it rates till it's not attractive to investor, means the carry gonna end?
If there is 1) no differential between interest rates then there is no interest swap, and 2) if BoJ eventually 'normalize' their interest rate with the rest of the world then there is no cheap money to borrow to invest in equities, ergo the Yen carry trade dies. You might want to go to investopedia.com and do some research there, it's pretty elementary stuff for a currency trader to know.
  • #1,760
  • Jan 9, 2008 12:01am Jan 9, 2008 12:01am
By the time JPY interest rate is at same level with another countries, USD interest might be so low it would be the cheap currency to carry trade...

Seriously, there are another pairs that make good carry trade with higher yeld than the AUD/JPY

In far away Future, possibility could be united currencies per continent, like the Euro, the Dollars and the Asean, maybe another could be something for the Middle East (the Petro-Dollars : ) and another currency for the African continent (the Africa-Dollars)
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