Elliott Wave Counting with EG

AUDUSD 4h

Breakout to the UPSIDE will signal resumption of wave 3 UP

A breakout to the DOWNSIDE will most likely develop a Zigzag wave 2

EG

AUDUSD 1hr

Price has breeched monthly pivot @ 0.8744 and encountered resistance at the weekly Pivot @ 0.8755

The way I look at it, If price continues to encounter resistance at the Weekly Pivot level, then it would lead to a formation of a triangle wave B after a 5 wave Leg A

Afterwhich Leg C down will complete a Zigzag for wave 2 Down.

Then the BIG Wave 3 up continues.

Fibonacci Projections are:
Wave 3 @ 0.9070 - 0.9183
Wave 5 @ 0.9367 - 0.9480
with maximum @ 0.9850

I did not believe last 2006 October when I started Trading live that from 0.7500 price would go to 0.8800

at that time I thought it was far fetched. Then it took 10 months for price to achieve that level. what I did not note well was the retracements.

But should this pan out, best level to buy is at end of wave 2
1st SL at origin of wave 1
once wave 4 is achieved, move SL to end of wave 2
then when price for wave 5 exceeds end of wave 3 move SL to end of wave 4.

I must be dreaming...... somebody wake me up.....

EG

replacing initial chart for more details.

Ok. I had my doubts on the continued downtrend based on my wave count on eurusd.

However when I saw the Price action on the daily a few minutes ago, I must admit that EURUSD looks more like heading down for a bigger correction.

1.4505 falls @ the 61.8% retracement for wave 2

Pin bar and the bearish engulfing candle indicate bearish bias for this pair.

So now I would be looking for a nice entry for my short trade.

EGhttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...lies/smile.gif

===

my direction same as U. my Sl stand at 4735/4750/4825.Eu need correction down bef Another Leg Up..
correct me if i wrong,thanks EG..

Hi adhi04

I had entered a Short trade pre maturely at 1.4690 yesterday morning and watch it go -40pips. and because it was ranging yesterday as I was watching it... I had this worry that things could go wrong later if I was to leave that trade open while I had to leave the rest of the day.

I placed a hedge (Long trade) just to minimize loss incase price went up later in the London and the US session. I set my SL @ 1.4800. I then had a NET possible loss of 38pips if I was to liquidate all my positions in both directions unless my SL was hit earlier.

I had to do that because I was going to be away for the rest of the day when the important sessions came on. Anyway, right now I am nursing these trades.

Your wave count would support the large wave C down for this expanded flat corrective wave. Your wave count would seem to look more appropriate in terms of structure proportion.

But looking at the chart now on a 1 hour tf, the down move from 1.4823 was a clear 5 wave impulse which could be the sub wave 1 of a big C down or the whole C itself if we expect a Running FLAT for this correction.

I believe a running flat has a B longer than A and the C not going beyond the end of A.

From the low of 1.4658, I now see a leading diagonal UP to be forming. This creates a doubt for me that we are still heading down for that big C.

Triangles can not be found on wave 2s. so this might be heading up already as a Leading Diagonal Wave 1. But then again, Leading diagonals have an internal structure of 53535. So I may still be wrong on this direction/ upward assumption.

However, the 1st wave 5 down can be considered as a wave A in a complex C and this trinagle can de considered as a wave B to be followed by the sub wave c of a complex wave C down. These are just things I have been considiering regarding this wave structure on the EURUSD.

Now looking at Patterns and technicals:

There is a downward channel formed on the 1hr chartwith the upper side of channel from high 1.4823 and 1.4740 and a parallel line srwn at 1.4658. if price does not breakout to the UPSIDE here, then this could support view that pair is still going down.

Notice too that price is right below 100 sma on the 15min chart and right above the daily pivot @ 1.4709

4hour stochs is going up and has crossed 50 level.

Price is stil inside the Price Range of yesterday. I am looking out for a breakout of this range too.

or we can see it this way too...

as a symmetricasl triangle with the 33333 structure having a throwover on the wave e of wave 2

But if price goes above the 100sma on the 15min chart and then goes higher than the following:

weekly pivot @ 1.4737
yesterdays' high @ 1.4740
Daily R2 @ 1.4747

Then I might just have more bias for the upside for this pair.

EG

Can I throw in my two cents.......I have a entry sell at 4695......and it doesn't matter what happens till it gets hit....go trade a pair you can read some structure and jump on a impulse wave......trying to count waves like this will make you old and in the end, you'll probably be wrong just like I always was when I tried counting abcxyzabcxabcde.......draw a line at the top of the correction and at the bottom...odds are it is going to be a continuation wave of the down move off 150ish...wait for it and make pips off impulse waves......now, back to counting........

===

clear,...today i'm hedging too B 4720 SL 4695 TP 4760..
thx for "warning" sign....

wave 2 limits

Thank you Tim. It is true trying to count waves on the lower time frames is starting to wear me down. I am actually already starting to scale out of my counting. I used to count down to the 1mim chart and doing that on the GBPJPY alone. But my reasons then was to get more adept at counting by practicing more often. That was focus on just 1 pair so I can get to know it better while practicing counting on all tfs plus its volatiltiy. It sure was a rough bumpy ride. But I think I got a load of practice from that. Not saying I had enough coz I still need more.

I am scaling out to the 5min and the 15min these days coz my MM is not as relaxing as that of others maybe. I guess I am feeling some pressure to get to the turns sooner than later to avoid any loss. But YES, I will keep trying to scale out some more like the 1hour and 4hour next time. And lower TFs only for timing the entries.

hhhhmmmmmm it may still sound the same for others... but in truth it is not.
Basing trades on the higher TF like 1hr or the 4hr gives traders less signals therefore less trades to monitor compared to getting signals on the 15min and less charts.

Anyway, I have set my SL at 38 pips total. so if it goes down, I get to profit on the way down. But I will hold on to my Long trades and suffer the drawdown as it completes the Corrective wave. Then allow it to recover while I get in again at the bottom for another long trade after the correction.

I am doing this because I believe that the longer term wave count is still bullish. Otherwise I would have to get out of my Long trade now.

EG

Hey adji04

I think you mis understood why I brought up those scenarios and why I am trading this way. I was not warning anyone that the price is going up. I just presented scenarios I thought were possible based on my wave counts which are quite numerous.

I am not saying I know how to hedge and I sure hope you do not just base your entries on my wave counts.

You have to have a reason why you are hedging and must really be able to accept your SL incase it gets hit. ( I am not saying you do not have a good reason for what you just did) Just cautioning you here.

EG

Price went up to 1.4733 breeching Daily R2 @ 1.4732
Weekly Pivot @ 1.4737 is still close by. It could still try and take that out.

next hurdle is yesterdays high @ 1.4740 then

Daily R2 @ 1.4747 followed by

1.4770 which is Daily R3 and Murrey Math Major Support and Resistance Level and 50% of yesterdays Range.

Price is currently between the weekly pivot @ 1.4737 and the Daily Pivot @ 1.4709.

But already broke out to the upside of the downward channel on the 1hr chart.

15min chart shows an upward channel for now.

EG

====
EG, luckyly, i closed buy position manually in minutes bef jump down occurred (-6pips).. with this current position still favor down targets 4658..
EG, i still refered U suggestion...thx

Here is a view on the 4 hour chart of GBPUSD.

I would love to get more of this set ups.

Bullish Harmonic Patterns already present on the
15min
30min
60min
1440min Daily

5min is potentially playing out a wave 4 up of 240min

EG

move from 1.9652 going down now could be the last wave 5 of the sub wave 5 of what seems to be a near ending diagonal triangle.

The ending diagonal triangle does not fit that well into the structure. just nearly. so be careful.

EG

EURUSD

EURUSD

Have managed to to reduce potential net loss to -19 by exiting a short trade then entering at a slightly higher level


EG

GBPUSD Heads up for me

Price has breached FE 161.8 of A not so much . But the fact that it has breached that level puts a doubt on whether wave C has ended

Or pair is currently developing the wave 3 down.

But looking at the 15min chart, I see another ending diagonal triangle.

Could this be a case of "An ending diagonal wave 5 to end an ending diagonal wave 5 of a higher degree with a throwover to finish off a higher degree wave C"?

EG

Looking at EURUSD as possibly bottoming @ 1.4638 for sub wave 1 of wave 3 down.

If that would be the case, then we will see Pair rise toward the 61.8% retrace of sub wave 1 down for the sub wave 2 up @ 1.4705

EG

Triangles abound