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High & Low 8 Hours (GBP/JPY)

  • #1,961
  • Jan 4, 2008 8:43pm Jan 4, 2008 8:43pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
-100 today - losers on both sell and buy. Hey ho. This is bound to happen occasionally.
That is me done for the week. Have a pleasant weekend, everyone.
Non Farm payroll announcement day is not a day that you should use this system. It is a day where there are just whipsaws before the big announcement comes out. The upper trigger on the chart for buy was hit twice and the lower trigger for sell was hit 5 times. That says it all. Stay out on NFP day.
  • #1,962
  • Jan 5, 2008 3:32am Jan 5, 2008 3:32am
Quoting PipStar
Non Farm payroll announcement day is not a day that you should use this system. It is a day where there are just whipsaws before the big announcement comes out. The upper trigger on the chart for buy was hit twice and the lower trigger for sell was hit 5 times. That says it all. Stay out on NFP day.
That is invaluable advice for us all, PipStar. Thanks.

  • #1,963
  • Jan 5, 2008 3:48am Jan 5, 2008 3:48am
Quoting PipStar
Non Farm payroll announcement day is not a day that you should use this system. It is a day where there are just whipsaws before the big announcement comes out. The upper trigger on the chart for buy was hit twice and the lower trigger for sell was hit 5 times. That says it all. Stay out on NFP day.
Wrong

The buy order was triggered due to strong data from UK in the morning (which just could have been otherwise). Then stopped out on the lousy NFP number.

NFP is a freaking lottery. Should NFP come out 100K and this buy would have given us some 200 pips this Friday.

You must let the strategy work. This is the only way you can collect pips. Avoiding the strategy to work and/or cutting profit below +100 will kill the strategy in the long run.
  • #1,964
  • Jan 5, 2008 4:34am Jan 5, 2008 4:34am
Quoting bob_inabottle
Go to the papper clip in the top right hand corner of this page you will find the EA there, that is all you need .... no indicators. May i recomend that you read this thread from the start if you have not already done so!
Thanks mate ... i never knew that all the attached files were accessible so easily ... this makes it a lot easier thanks ...

Also I did read it from the start say upto the first 20-30 pages and the last 20-30 pages... but then its not that easy to follow if one is not in touch from the initial pages so was lost a bit...

By the way if you guys wanna have a live chat room for discussing this system I can create one for you on www.incometactics.com/greenpips/
this is where we discuss things with a good friend of mine from UK called paul.
If you ppl want I can setup a seperate chat room for this system ... as this is the least that I can do...

Gauresh.
  • #1,965
  • Jan 5, 2008 6:05am Jan 5, 2008 6:05am
Cesar,


You must let the strategy work. This is the only way you can collect pips. Avoiding the strategy to work and/or cutting profit below +100 will kill the strategy in the long run.

Please can you clarify your strategy within the Nico because I have read previous post by you where it you have used bigger TP and SL. And if this is so why? Like many of the followers of this strategy you use an EA.... My broker platform is not a MT4... is this a disadvantage or can I trade it manually with equal success?

Thanks
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #1,966
  • Jan 5, 2008 6:24am Jan 5, 2008 6:24am
Quoting moneda
Cesar,


You must let the strategy work. This is the only way you can collect pips. Avoiding the strategy to work and/or cutting profit below +100 will kill the strategy in the long run.

Please can you clarify your strategy within the Nico because I have read previous post by you where you use a bigger Stop Loss. And if this is so why? Are you using an EA?

Thanks
I'm using saaedb's EA, but with 100 pips SL - no re-enter.

I tested the strategy live (with tiny lots) during november and december. Just to check how it is its behavior during the day. If the breakout is usually a shoot up/down non-stop, if it usually stalls, so forth.

When you trade SL -50 / with re-enter, if you are stopped out once, your potential net profit drops to +50 (-50 loss /+100 profit on re-enter), thus dropping your risk:reward to 2:1 as you're potential loss remains -100.

What I noticed is that it's usual the strategy to travel through -50 area before closing in profit. Have in mind that GJ moves almost 2 pips for every pip UJ moves. So just a 25 pips move in UJ is enough to get you to -50.

If the -50 travel happens a lot, you will be trading a 2:1 risk:reward too often, because in the other hand, there's no rule to shrink the potential loss of -100.

I prefer trading a constant 1:1 risk:reward relying on the fact that the strategy is profitable more than 50% of the time.

In the 6 months backtest I've run, you can see the results. Many will say "6 months don't tell the story". Maybe it won't tell the whole story, but it was enough to convince me.
  • #1,967
  • Jan 5, 2008 6:37am Jan 5, 2008 6:37am
Quoting cesarnc
I'm using saaedb's EA, but with 100 pips SL - no re-enter.

I tested the strategy live (with tiny lots) during november and december. Just to check how it is its behavior during the day. If the breakout is usually a shoot up/down non-stop, if it usually stalls, so forth.

When you trade SL -50 / with re-enter, if you are stopped out once, your potential net profit drops to +50 (-50 loss /+100 profit on re-enter), thus dropping your risk:reward to 2:1 as you're potential loss remains -100.

What I noticed is that it's usual the strategy to travel through -50 area before closing in profit. Have in mind that GJ moves almost 2 pips for every pip UJ moves. So just a 25 pips move in UJ is enough to get you to -50.

If the -50 travel happens a lot, you will be trading a 2:1 risk:reward too often, because in the other hand, there's no rule to shrink the potential loss of -100.

I prefer trading a constant 1:1 risk:reward relying on the fact that the strategy is profitable more than 50% of the time.

In the 6 months backtest I've run, you can see the results. Many will say "6 months don't tell the story". Maybe it won't tell the whole story, but it was enough to convince me.

Well thats really good... can someone tell me what should i use as the variables for teh EA my broker is GMT +2 hours so what are the values that I should be changing ...

As such I would be trading this manually mostly but still for backtesting I need to work out the EA ...
OR better still if Cesarnc can upload the backtesting results in some way then it would be really helpful...

You said that it hits the -50 mark quite often .. so you keep the stoploss as 100 pips ... have you tried to backtest with 60 pips ... 75 pips etc...
if this is the way you came upto 100pips as the most optimum stoploss then I guess 100 pips is what we should keep ...
  • #1,968
  • Jan 5, 2008 7:07am Jan 5, 2008 7:07am
Quoting igauresh
OR better still if Cesarnc can upload the backtesting results in some way then it would be really helpful...
You will find it in this thread's attachements, the paper clip link beside the pages up there.

A PDF file on Dec 6th
  • #1,969
  • Jan 5, 2008 9:59am Jan 5, 2008 9:59am
Quoting cesarnc
You will find it in this thread's attachements, the paper clip link beside the pages up there.

A PDF file on Dec 6th

Very usefull information cess. TY
  • #1,970
  • Jan 5, 2008 12:33pm Jan 5, 2008 12:33pm
What do you mean by max range = 300?
  • #1,971
  • Jan 5, 2008 1:42pm Jan 5, 2008 1:42pm
Quoting pino2
What do you mean by max range = 300?
Long time no see you pino, how you doin?

MaxRange is a feature saaedb put in the EA

His words

"I've also put the MaxRange parameter into action. You can set this variable, and if the Range is bigger then this value, it wont trade. It's wise for keeping the EA out of the market if the pair has already moved alot."

Seen that he suggested 500 for GJ and I didn't change it. Gonna do it.
  • #1,972
  • Edited 2:12pm Jan 5, 2008 2:00pm | Edited 2:12pm
Quoting cesarnc
Long time no see you pino, how you doin?

MaxRange is a feature saaedb put in the EA

His words

"I've also put the MaxRange parameter into action. You can set this variable, and if the Range is bigger then this value, it wont trade. It's wise for keeping the EA out of the market if the pair has already moved alot."

Seen that he suggested 500 for GJ and I didn't change it. Gonna do it.
cesarnc, it's been a long time, I'm fine, I took a rest for a while to relax, and I'm back again, but reading posts, but still trading live using my strategies, and lately I'm following nicotina's system in addition to my strategies, and it's fine with me
My setup is range from 18:00gmt to 1:59gmt
TP = 100
SL = 100
Number of resets = 1 ( no re-enter)
I close open trades @ 21:59gmt
I don't place any max range

Cesar, I miss your posts
  • #1,973
  • Jan 5, 2008 3:25pm Jan 5, 2008 3:25pm
Quoting pino2
cesarnc, it's been a long time, I'm fine, I took a rest for a while to relax, and I'm back again, but reading posts, but still trading live using my strategies, and lately I'm following nicotina's system in addition to my strategies, and it's fine with me
My setup is range from 18:00gmt to 1:59gmt
TP = 100
SL = 100
Number of resets = 1 ( no re-enter)
I close open trades @ 21:59gmt
I don't place any max range

Cesar, I miss your posts
Me, too, working with nicotina's and another as simple GJ strategy. Freaking tired of those daily struggles, you remember?

I'll never forget that huge bottom you picked on GU somewhere in the low 2.0100s. I think you missed the absolute bottom by what, 4 pips?

Either way, let's face it. What we were doing back then was closed to horse betting and beyond Russian roulette...

I'm pretty happy with the automated trades and let the computer do the ugly work....

Good luck to you, my friend!
  • #1,974
  • Jan 5, 2008 4:01pm Jan 5, 2008 4:01pm
Quoting PipStar
Non Farm payroll announcement day is not a day that you should use this system. It is a day where there are just whipsaws before the big announcement comes out. The upper trigger on the chart for buy was hit twice and the lower trigger for sell was hit 5 times. That says it all. Stay out on NFP day.
Hi PipStar,

The range for the day is: 214.56-216.40.
Long was hit, and got stopped: -50
Short was hit, and got profit: +100

I don't know if you are trading Nicotina or you have different broker or different range, but Nicotina is +50 for that day. It's not the number of hits, but the SL or TP that counts.

Having said that, I agree with you that Nicotina should be discouraged during NFP, or other major news.

Thanks.
"People sometimes mistake luck with skill"
  • #1,975
  • Jan 5, 2008 4:12pm Jan 5, 2008 4:12pm
Quoting cesarnc
I don't like this approach. If you start chickening out for less than +100 too much you will kill this strategy's performance in the long run.

Specially because you most likely won't cut the losses with less than -100 pips on hopes it will get back to profit.

I'm not saying that out of nowhere. I tested this strategy for 2 months and here are my mistakes during this period:

1. Trade moves too fast to some +80 / I enlarge the TP to 200. It touches 100 to 135 pips and then tumbles to the SL -> happened twice

2. Trade moves to some -80. I cut the loss, it reverses to +100 profit. With cesarnc left behind at the station.

This strategy has about 60 to 70% win ratio performance, which implies that it will be a loser 30-40% of the time. Only allowing it to trade fully any of the stops (loss or profit) the performance will be allowed to unfold in the long run.
You obviously modified Nicotina with this approach which is commendable because every system should suit each trader's discretion.

Quote
1. Trade moves too fast to some +80 / I enlarge the TP to 200. It touches 100 to 135 pips and then tumbles to the SL -> happened twice
I suggest that you close 1/2 of your position once you reach 100 pips and place a trailing stop, in that case the profit is secure but you're still potentially gaining if the pair goes for, say, 300 pips (which is not unusual for Guppy). As in other trade, it's a good practice closing half of your position once you profited double the amount that you risked (in this case, you risk 50 pips SL, so close half of the position once you get 100 pips TP), then trail a stop on the remaining position.

Quote
2. Trade moves to some -80. I cut the loss, it reverses to +100 profit. With cesarnc left behind at the station.
I suggest to go back to -50 SL. If you closed it at -50, you would have gained +50, not +20 pips.

This is the advantage of EA, just set it up and leave the computer. Gawking at the chart would really bring out human emotions especially if Nicotina is losing.
"People sometimes mistake luck with skill"
  • #1,976
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:30pm Jan 5, 2008 5:30pm
Quoting 20pips
You obviously modified Nicotina with this approach which is commendable because every system should suit each trader's discretion.

I suggest that you close 1/2 of your position once you reach 100 pips and place a trailing stop, in that case the profit is secure but you're still potentially gaining if the pair goes for, say, 300 pips (which is not unusual for Guppy). As in other trade, it's a good practice closing half of your position once you profited double the amount that you risked (in this case, you risk 50 pips SL, so close half of the position once you get 100 pips TP), then trail a stop on the remaining position.

I suggest to go back to -50 SL. If you closed it at -50, you would have gained +50, not +20 pips.

This is the advantage of EA, just set it up and leave the computer. Gawking at the chart would really bring out human emotions especially if Nicotina is losing.
Thanks 20, as you've said "to each, his own".

But I'll start using the partial profit in those days I can stay checking the trade.

On the -50 stoploss, this is what I wrote right above. I'm still not convinced.

Quoting cesarnc
When you trade SL -50 / with re-enter, if you are stopped out once, your potential net profit drops to +50 (-50 loss /+100 profit on re-enter), thus dropping your risk:reward to 2:1 as you're potential loss remains -100.

What I noticed is that it's usual the strategy to travel through -50 area before closing in profit. Have in mind that GJ moves almost 2 pips for every pip UJ moves. So just a 25 pips move in UJ is enough to get you to -50.

If the -50 travel happens a lot, you will be trading a 2:1 risk:reward too often, because in the other hand, there's no rule to shrink the potential loss of -100.

I prefer trading a constant 1:1 risk:reward relying on the fact that the strategy is profitable more than 50% of the time.
OK, 50:100 R:R is better than 100:100 R:R. But for GJ, I don't like the sound of SL 50 pips.

See? GJ is nothing else than UJ x GU. So every pip UJ moves, GJ will move (right now) 1.97/1.98, so almost 2 pips. (RMK- equally, for every pip GU moves, Gj will move 1.08 only)

If UJ spiked 25 pips for any reason (stop hunting, news, whatever) down to the drain is going your 50 pips SL.
  • #1,977
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:38pm Jan 5, 2008 5:38pm
And Hey, 20pips,

Please do not take my post as a confrontation of some sort. I think this is a healthy exchange of ideas and views.

Everybody should seek what fits better his personality / emotions / psychology and goals.

And, although this strategy is awfully simple, it is its nuances that drives us to like it (like we do) or hate it.

And this exchange of ideas might be helpful to those not yet understanding the extension of this strategy (read risk/reward/downsides, so forth).

Bottom line, I believe in simplicity. I've seen a lot of strategies that use so damn sophisticated technicals that a monkey can fly a 747 with them.

I leave it to Boeing's staff to bother.

I'm just a pip hunger hyena looking for the lion's leftovers, laughing in the process.
  • #1,978
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:39pm Jan 5, 2008 5:39pm
I agree.

Quoting cesarnc
Thanks 20, as you've said "to each, his own".

But I'll start using the partial profit in those days I can stay checking the trade.

On the -50 stoploss, this is what I wrote right above. I'm still not convinced.



OK, 50:100 R:R is better than 100:100 R:R. But for GJ, I don't like the sound of SL 50 pips.

See? GJ is nothing else than UJ x GU. So every pip UJ moves, GJ will move (right now) 1.97/1.98, so almost 2 pips. (RMK- equally, for every pip GU moves, Gj will move 1.08 only)

If UJ spiked 25 pips for any reason (stop hunting, news, whatever) down to the drain is going your 50 pips SL.
"People sometimes mistake luck with skill"
  • #1,979
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:42pm Jan 5, 2008 5:42pm
Of course not.

Actually "in theory" one can apply Nicotina during news times, adjusting the high and low range before the news breaks (instead of 1800-0200hrs GMT).

Sort of the lull before the storm (during silent retracements), I haven't done that in live though.

Thanks.

Quoting cesarnc
And Hey, 20pips,

Please do not take my post as a confrontation of some sort. I think this is a healthy exchange of ideas and views.

Everybody should seek what fits better his personality / emotions / psychology and goals.

And, although this strategy is awfully simple, it is its nuances that drives us to like it (like we do) or hate it.

And this exchange of ideas might be helpful to those not yet understanding the extension of this strategy (read risk/reward/downsides, so forth).

Bottom line, I believe in simplicity. I've seen a lot of strategies that use so damn sophisticated technicals that a monkey can fly a 747 with them.

I leave it to Boeing's staff to bother.

I'm just a pip hunger hyena looking for the lion's leftovers, laughing in the process.
"People sometimes mistake luck with skill"
  • #1,980
  • Jan 5, 2008 7:06pm Jan 5, 2008 7:06pm
Hi Nicotina

Firstly I would like to thank you very much for starting this thread.

Your system seems to be so easy!!!!

I am very new to Forex trading. I have been playing with a demo for 6 months, loosing more than winning. But I think if I use your system and take in the info provided by the other contributers, I might be able to go LIVE TRADING.

Thank You very much for sharing.

Regards

Ozzibob
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