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High & Low 8 Hours (GBP/JPY)

  • #1,941
  • Jan 4, 2008 5:34am Jan 4, 2008 5:34am
Quoting kusniagos
Just be careful NFP is 1hr away, better stay out fight another time.
2 hours. NFP comes out at 830 eastern time, current time is 630.
  • #1,942
  • Jan 4, 2008 5:47am Jan 4, 2008 5:47am
-100 today - losers on both sell and buy. Hey ho. This is bound to happen occasionally.

That is me done for the week. Have a pleasant weekend, everyone.

  • #1,943
  • Jan 4, 2008 6:11am Jan 4, 2008 6:11am
Quoting SteveHopwood
-100 today - losers on both sell and buy. Hey ho. This is bound to happen occasionally.

That is me done for the week. Have a pleasant weekend, everyone.

Which pair? My GJ long still running (with 100pips SL no re-enter).

And yes, the only way a strategy can perform well 60 or 70% of the time, is losing 30 or 40% of the time. LOL
  • #1,944
  • Jan 4, 2008 6:34am Jan 4, 2008 6:34am
I only got 1 stopped (50pips) for today. NFP is out in one hour, so i'll call it a day. Have a nice weekend guys
  • #1,945
  • Jan 4, 2008 6:41am Jan 4, 2008 6:41am
Greetings -

I read a post by autotrade-fx on Nov. 4th, 2007 in which he backtested this EA for the last 1 year and 5 years using optimized and the originally mentioned settings. It looks as though the 5 year backtest was not very good. Has anyone backtested this EA RECENTLY using any other settings with any different results for longer than a 1 year period they would like to share? Or, has anyone been live with this EA for longer than a year?

I'm just curious as to why this EA wouldn't work well for a longer time period. (Also, I am aware that sometimes those backtests don't work well depending on the data, etc....)

Regards,
Sam
  • #1,946
  • Jan 4, 2008 6:52am Jan 4, 2008 6:52am
Quoting cesarnc
Which pair? My GJ long still running (with 100pips SL no re-enter).

And yes, the only way a strategy can perform well 60 or 70% of the time, is losing 30 or 40% of the time. LOL
GJ, with 50 sl. I can see that a 100 sl would have kept the trade alive. I hope yours succeeds.

  • #1,947
  • Jan 4, 2008 6:54am Jan 4, 2008 6:54am
Hi Sam. I'd like to field this one. If you open your GBP/JPY D1 chart in Metatrader, you can see that 2006/2007 has had a lot of movement (up and down.) In previous years, the market was pretty sideways (with lower volatility.) Most strategies need strong volatility to do well.

Quoting Samantha
I'm just curious as to why this EA wouldn't work well for a longer time period. (Also, I am aware that sometimes those backtests don't work well depending on the data, etc....)
  • #1,948
  • Jan 4, 2008 6:59am Jan 4, 2008 6:59am
Quoting tdion
Hi Sam. I'd like to field this one. If you open your GBP/JPY D1 chart in Metatrader, you can see that 2006/2007 has had a lot of movement (up and down.) In previous years, the market was pretty sideways (with lower volatility.) Most strategies need strong volatility to do well.
Right on it, tdion.

Same happened to Dow Jones. The good news is that high volatility is expected to go on throughout 2008 in the stock market
  • #1,949
  • Jan 4, 2008 7:02am Jan 4, 2008 7:02am
Quoting tdion
Hi Sam. I'd like to field this one. If you open your GBP/JPY D1 chart in Metatrader, you can see that 2006/2007 has had a lot of movement (up and down.) In previous years, the market was pretty sideways (with lower volatility.) Most strategies need strong volatility to do well.
Thanks for the quick response. Right, I see. There are always going to be corrections, and ranging markets; therefore something to note when using this EA.

Regards,
Sam
  • #1,950
  • Jan 4, 2008 7:27am Jan 4, 2008 7:27am
Quoting vsumardi
I only got 1 stopped (50pips) for today. NFP is out in one hour, so i'll call it a day. Have a nice weekend guys
Vsumardi,

I know that with this system you have to take your bumps and move on but I wonder if using a bit of discretion and taking 40+ pips like your situation works in the long run. I mean in this case we had the NFP coming out and who knows what would happen after its release! Anyway keep up the good work.
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #1,951
  • Jan 4, 2008 9:15am Jan 4, 2008 9:15am
Quoting moneda
Vsumardi,

I know that with this system you have to take your bumps and move on but I wonder if using a bit of discretion and taking 40+ pips like your situation works in the long run. I mean in this case we had the NFP coming out and who knows what would happen after its release! Anyway keep up the good work.
I agree with you, we have to see the situation. The price was around +17 to +40 pips. I close my position at +17, Some time the rule is there but sometime we have to use our sensors. Its better making +10 than to loss -50. We can always come back in anytime. Anyway its part and parcel of trading the only thing is that we learn from our mistakes and share what we think is best. No one is perfect we share the happiness and sorrow in this forex world.
Theres' light at the end of the tunnel....
  • #1,952
  • Jan 4, 2008 10:04am Jan 4, 2008 10:04am
Quoting kusniagos

Anyway its part and parcel of trading the only thing is that we learn from our mistakes and share what we think is best. No one is perfect we share the happiness and sorrow in this forex world.
And sometimes we are just unlucky with our timing. I lost a gy sell today when a pending order filled at 214.66. The price has been as low as 213.43. Hey ho (I need a shoulder-shrugging smiley here).


  • #1,953
  • Jan 4, 2008 10:15am Jan 4, 2008 10:15am
Quoting kusniagos


I agree with you, we have to see the situation. The price was around +17 to +40 pips. I close my position at +17, Some time the rule is there but sometime we have to use our sensors. Its better making +10 than to loss -50. We can always come back in anytime. Anyway its part and parcel of trading the only thing is that we learn from our mistakes and share what we think is best. No one is perfect we share the happiness and sorrow in this forex world.
I don't like this approach. If you start chickening out for less than +100 too much you will kill this strategy's performance in the long run.

Specially because you most likely won't cut the losses with less than -100 pips on hopes it will get back to profit.

I'm not saying that out of nowhere. I tested this strategy for 2 months and here are my mistakes during this period:

1. Trade moves too fast to some +80 / I enlarge the TP to 200. It touches 100 to 135 pips and then tumbles to the SL -> happened twice

2. Trade moves to some -80. I cut the loss, it reverses to +100 profit. With cesarnc left behind at the station.

This strategy has about 60 to 70% win ratio performance, which implies that it will be a loser 30-40% of the time. Only allowing it to trade fully any of the stops (loss or profit) the performance will be allowed to unfold in the long run.
  • #1,954
  • Jan 4, 2008 11:23am Jan 4, 2008 11:23am
Today's result in spite of all bumps and nfp:
-50+100=+50
Regards
  • #1,955
  • Jan 4, 2008 12:55pm Jan 4, 2008 12:55pm
Quoting cesarnc
I don't like this approach. If you start chickening out for less than +100 too much you will kill this strategy's performance in the long run.

Specially because you most likely won't cut the losses with less than -100 pips on hopes it will get back to profit.

I'm not saying that out of nowhere. I tested this strategy for 2 months and here are my mistakes during this period:

1. Trade moves too fast to some +80 / I enlarge the TP to 200. It touches 100 to 135 pips and then tumbles to the SL -> happened twice

2. Trade moves to some -80. I cut the loss, it reverses to +100 profit. With cesarnc left behind at the station.

This strategy has about 60 to 70% win ratio performance, which implies that it will be a loser 30-40% of the time. Only allowing it to trade fully any of the stops (loss or profit) the performance will be allowed to unfold in the long run.
On how many years/months data did you test this strategy to conclude that its 60-70% of the times going to hit your tp?
  • #1,956
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:13pm Jan 4, 2008 1:13pm
Quoting saaedb
On how many years/months data did you test this strategy to conclude that its 60-70% of the times going to hit your tp?
6 months. Couldn't get more than that in my IBFX hourly chart.

I also couple this strategy with other GJ strategy in such a way net loss ratio drops to some 16% (but breakeven ratio soars to 48%). This other strategy has 60% to 70% win ratio, backtested for 5 years.

So when I'm in front of the computer I cut one of the trades if it's in profit while the other hits TP, to crack this 48% breakeven ratio.

When I'm not in front of the computer, I let the strategies do their jobs.

This way I don't have to bother whether or not nicotina's is really a 60-70% winner. Just can't be a 60%-70% loser LOL.
  • #1,957
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:13pm Jan 4, 2008 1:13pm
sorry if i offend someone out there but can someone please point me to the indicators if any for this system..
I was told that this system has an EA for metatrader...

Or if someone can just let me know if the same system is used which is stated on the first page.

thank you.
  • #1,958
  • Jan 4, 2008 3:02pm Jan 4, 2008 3:02pm
Quoting igauresh
sorry if i offend someone out there but can someone please point me to the indicators if any for this system..
I was told that this system has an EA for metatrader...

Or if someone can just let me know if the same system is used which is stated on the first page.

thank you.

Go to the papper clip in the top right hand corner of this page you will find the EA there, that is all you need .... no indicators. May i recomend that you read this thread from the start if you have not already done so!
  • #1,959
  • Jan 4, 2008 7:04pm Jan 4, 2008 7:04pm
what is the pips away when you want to place a buy stop or sell stop?


Quoting ariefdff
We can't, but we can predict. Normally 1hr before the reading, I will put both buy-stop and sell-stop like we do on this Nicotina method, just different on time

All sterling pair goes up I think, just got more 90pips from GBPCHF also
  • #1,960
  • Jan 4, 2008 7:43pm Jan 4, 2008 7:43pm
I am working with ITFX brocker and now it is the first time I hear about EA. Do any one knows if I can use the EA with the ITFX progran or it is an independent program?

I appreciate your help.
Oscar
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