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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #57,361
  • Jan 4, 2008 12:24pm Jan 4, 2008 12:24pm
Quoting dagoods
ok but dont foreget about your bernakke indicator!
That seems like a joke---but if Dow breaks 12800 and 12000 does not support, don't be suprised to see an 'interim cut' by the Fed before the end of January.
  • #57,362
  • Jan 4, 2008 12:36pm Jan 4, 2008 12:36pm
Quoting FX-Petra
That seems like a joke---but if Dow breaks 12800 and 12000 does not support, don't be suprised to see an 'interim cut' by the Fed before the end of January.
Thanks for your fundamental insights, FX-Petra. Keep them coming. I always read them, and they are always appreciated!

  • #57,363
  • Jan 4, 2008 12:38pm Jan 4, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting quecee5
kujo17,

First I'd like to say welcome bro, you've just learned the 1st lesson in trading and thats money management. Money management will be the key to your success while trading FX. You must not make a trade before asking yourself how much am I willing to risk losing if I've made the wrong call. Then ask yourself is this trade worth the risk vs reward? Learn how to protect your capital not how to make a million dollars in a weekend. These thing that I'm suggesting make the difference between a successful trader vs. a gambler.

Therefore, my suggestion to you is to review Aus system and practice on a demo account 1st before going live and losing hard earned cash. The senior traders are here to help answer any questions you may have (within reason) but you must have a certain level of discipline in order to become a successful trader. . .

Money Management + Good Technical System + Fundamentals + Discipline = a Successful Trader. . .

Check your pm in 15 min. . .
I believe that can be seen more clearly now.
  • #57,364
  • Jan 4, 2008 12:48pm Jan 4, 2008 12:48pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Thanks for your fundamental insights, FX-Petra. Keep them coming. I always read them, and they are always appreciated!

i second that! was just making the point that when the fed gets involved it screws up the old technical analysis... was a silly little joke wishing i had a bernakke indicator thats all if there is an interim cut what do you think will happen to the beast? will it then go up on a dow rally or down on the announcement or both? i get confused by the whole dow thing...
  • #57,365
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:06pm Jan 4, 2008 1:06pm
Quoting dagoods
i second that! was just making the point that when the fed gets involved it screws up the old technical analysis... was a silly little joke wishing i had a bernakke indicator thats all if there is an interim cut what do you think will happen to the beast? will it then go up on a dow rally or down on the announcement or both? i get confused by the whole dow thing...
An interim cut, with the right wording (e.g. 'Fed stands ready to act as necessay...') would rally the Dow. A suprise cut would drive down bond yeilds even further...the theory being if bond yeilds get low enough the stock market will start looking attactive again....The big money boys have to put their money somewhere!
BTW Fed futures are now pricing in a 50% chance of 50 basis points at end of month.
  • #57,366
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:10pm Jan 4, 2008 1:10pm
Quoting FX-Petra
An interim cut, with the right wording (e.g. 'Fed stands ready to act as necessay...') would rally the Dow. A suprise cut would drive down bond yeilds even further...the theory being if bond yeilds get low enough the stock market will start looking attactive again....The big money boys have to put their money somewhere!
BTW Fed futures are now pricing in a 50% chance of 50 basis points at end of month.

ok sool! i see that... but i guess i am just confused becase rate cuts = gj going down with uj going down? no? but dow rally usually = uj up and gj possibly up???? and you pointed out the disconnect with the dow and nikkei as of late???? this forex stuff is harder than it seems!
  • #57,367
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:11pm Jan 4, 2008 1:11pm
Quoting kujo17
Anyone have a suggestion, re: strategies for these pairs ?
I'm new to Forex, obviously.

Started out in December and did about a 200% profit the last 2 weeks of the month.

But, the last 4 days, that's been blown up !

Being STUPID.

Going to go over Aus' strategy this weekend.

Anyone else have any suggestions, feel free to PM me.
Queece, FX Daily, Aus, and all the other Veterans.

Not looking for the keys to the mint.
Not afraid of doing the work.

Just need some guidance to a good, reliable, system to hopefully bring in 10%/day.

Thanks all and have a great weekend.
Gonna shake off the last few days and come back kicking and screaming !

Cheers,
k
Realign your expectations with reality, they are way too high. The first lesson you've got to learn is how to survive in the market. Nobody is here to lose money but I can almost guarantee you will trying to get 10%/day. If you can average 5-10% a month in a couple of years you will have achieved greatness, harnessing a money source that you'll be able to tap as long as there are markets that you can trade. Unfortunately, I doubt you will make it to that plateau - most don't, fewer still with the Las Vegas attitude.
  • #57,368
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:12pm Jan 4, 2008 1:12pm
did amyone else scalp this litlle move here?

but notice the price action.... we may soon see the bottom for a bit all i get a feeling that gj wants to break up at some point.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj oops.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #57,369
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:15pm Jan 4, 2008 1:15pm
hey guys,
i am new for trading as well. like him i tried and doubled te money in 2 months but lost all of them in 2 days! I dont know the AUS strategy. guide me where to look for it

thanks!
  • #57,370
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:29pm Jan 4, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting goop
hey guys,
i am new for trading as well. like him i tried and doubled te money in 2 months but lost all of them in 2 days! I dont know the AUS strategy. guide me where to look for it

thanks!
Traders can spend years searching for the key to success, only to discover later that it was inside them all along. Find a system that you’re comfortable with, and that gives you a slight edge. Then work on yourself and your trading habits.

Here are some threads that might help:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=3156

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=45076

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=41509

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60272

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331
  • #57,371
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:29pm Jan 4, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting dagoods
ok sool! i see that... but i guess i am just confused becase rate cuts = gj going down with uj going down? no? but dow rally usually = uj up and gj possibly up???? and you pointed out the disconnect with the dow and nikkei as of late???? this forex stuff is harder than it seems!
A lot of the money in the Dow is there due to borrowed yen, because yen intrest rate is so low. When people think Dow looks bad they buy back yen and get out of Dow. This causes yen to stengthen, driving carry trades(GJ) down. When Dow looks safe to rally the will sell yen (borrow against it). This will drive yen down and raise carry trades (GJ). Latley, only strong Dow moves (like this down move since the 1st of the year) are being respected by the carry trades. So, would a big suprise cut by the Fed spark a rally big enough to reverse the carry flows? With the right wording, I believe it would. This is one of the 'cards' that I have talked about that the US has to play to keep the Dow propped up. Of course, everytime you play a card, that leaves on less in the deck...........
  • #57,372
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:30pm Jan 4, 2008 1:30pm
Quoting dagoods
did amyone else scalp this litlle move here?

but notice the price action.... we may soon see the bottom for a bit all i get a feeling that gj wants to break up at some point.....
, Yep, saw it and shorted a small lot. . .
Looking to add another if we get another spike.

As PC pointed out, if we get a close below the daily pivot (215.55) its probable we will test the daily s1 (213.49) again (if it's not already sitting on that support before today's close). A break of s1 support would see next daily support @ (211.52).

Btw, daily s3 sits at 209.45 then the only major support left is monthly support which comes in @ 208.81 after that look out below (that's if it gets that low which is plausible).
  • #57,373
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:30pm Jan 4, 2008 1:30pm
ah the ole uj mystery! looks like she wants to test weekly support levels but....will she bounce? this is the question!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #57,374
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:47pm Jan 4, 2008 1:47pm
Hope there are a few who are sticking around. Dow is @ 12803. Last hour of trading could be very intresting.
  • #57,375
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:50pm Jan 4, 2008 1:50pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Hope there are a few who are sticking around. Dow is @ 12803. Last hour of trading could be very intresting.
Yep, here until it closes. . .
Looking for trading opportunities for next week which should be plentiful since market will be in full effect!
  • #57,376
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:51pm Jan 4, 2008 1:51pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Hi everybody,

It appears that G/J will close beneath the Weekly 200ema, which is just above 216 on my charts. If so, and if nothing dramatic happens fundamentally, I'll target the mid to low 211's early next week. It could be my imagination but it looks like price is still following fibs from the Nov 1 - 23 downturn, even though it's below zero.

Here's a daily chart that shows how price has been behaving. 211.22 would be the next logical target if the pattern holds. But I'd set the TP a little higher to allow for variations.
Pips Cruiser,

That's a good observation. How easily we overlook those other fib levels
beyond (below in this case) the 00% after the retracement has ended.

Thanks for sharing,

Dr. D.
  • #57,377
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:51pm Jan 4, 2008 1:51pm
vinesh2 did you have a good week?
  • #57,378
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:01pm Jan 4, 2008 2:01pm
Quoting goop
hey guys,
i am new for trading as well. like him i tried and doubled te money in 2 months but lost all of them in 2 days! I dont know the AUS strategy. guide me where to look for it

thanks!
Here's a website built by maestr2 that has a page describing Auslanco's 15 minute strategy, and another page for downloading indicators. If you have any questions about using the strategy, you can post them on the FF thread dedicated to it.

http://www.pnwenterprises.com/auslanco/
  • #57,379
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:03pm Jan 4, 2008 2:03pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Pips Cruiser,

That's a good observation. How easily we overlook those other fib levels
beyond (below in this case) the 00% after the retracement has ended.

Thanks for sharing,

Dr. D.
Nice to see you back, fourxtrader. May fortune smile on your trades!

  • #57,380
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:07pm Jan 4, 2008 2:07pm
Hey, Q well it wasn't a good week cause I closed out some loosing trades. Lost quite a bit but trying to rebuild slowly. I trade mini account so takes time to make money back since I try not to be too aggresive. Scalped about 480 pips since last night. But again mini account so not much $$. Slowly but surely I will make my money back. Thanks for asking and thanks for posting your analysis I think you are a great trader in the making just make sure to devote time to family
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