Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Long GBPJPY....

The Great Monarch must be smiling right now with the Long Trades he loaded @ 213.75 level.

While everybody was looking for a level retrace to enter short trades, he loaded Longs instead and is catching this big retrace.

I have been counting the wave and so far I have counted 4 and the 5th is still going up. Going higher than 216.60 should confirm 5th wave of Leg A of this wave 4 retrace.

However wave 2 of this wave a was a Zigzag so chances are Wave 4 now will be a FLAT or a triangle...... if you can count 5 legs sporting the 3 wave structure, most likely it is a wave 4 triangle. Then Long TP will probably be around 217.38

But best to watch and count the waves too to make sure.

On the otherhand, I would suggest not to make Long trades at this point as RISK will be higher. Better to wait for the end of Wave A to trade wave B down. Unless you see something I don't on GBPJPY.

Thank you Tim.

You are helping a lot..

Am just a bit lost on the YEN pairs. GBPJPY for example.... what I see is price finishing wave 3 inside a wave 3 down and I am looking at wave 4 developing most probably into a FLAT or a Triangle. Wave 2 was a Zigzag

EG

Looks like a 4 in the making on gbp/jpy.....when in doubt, go to longer term charts and use Fibonacci and the norms of the waves...i.e. wave 4 does a 38% retrace of wave 3.......when the waves get complex, fall back on the rules...you may miss a trade or two on pairs that don't act right, the key is find one that does exactly what it is supposed to do and ride it to the barn......

GBPJPY

go to a 4 hour and tell me what you see........

Looks like a triangle in the making for the wave 4 of Leg A of the the bigger wave 4.

Price has retraced wave 3 almost near 38.2% which I think makes it a high probability wave 4 . Then A long trade on the breakout or I could wait for wave 5 to end for this 5 wave structured Leg A.

Then Short it for a Zigzag B wave of this wave 4. what do youthink Tim?

EG

EURUSD

Price has retraced upwards by about 50% as we anticipated. Most likely I will be looking at the FE 100.0 for the C = A Zigzag wave which incidentally falls on the 61.8% retrace quite common for wave 2s.

Eyeing 1.4656 which is also near the Low of previous day @ 1.4641

EG

Here is my GBPJPY 4 hour chart.

Daily chart added

EG

I'm looking for 219ish also.....so don't sweat the small stuff.........sell when we get there and you can justify an ABC with C having 5 waves on a 1 hour chart.....take it to a new low and count your money.....

Again Thank You Tim.

I will be counting waves on this wave 5 UP on GBPJPY.

EG

Here is what I see on the USDJPY monthly chart

EG

we'll see, thats my alternate.....in the a,b,c,d,e pattern you have drawn it's important to know the count rom 30 years ago on the monthly.....my preferred count is your "A" is my "a" since it was 3 waves a move down out of this pattern woud be a final wave 5...also of note....decending triangles break to the downside.........as long as the impulse waves continue down, follow them and don't worry about a monthly count.......

Good morning Tim..

I wake up to a different scenario than what I was looking forward to before I turned in early this morning on the EURUSD and the GBPJPY smaller Timeframe.

Anyway , I will try to straighten out my bearings in a little while.

As for the USDJPY, my monthly chart data as you can see lacked the data for wave 1 and has an incomplete data for wave 2. I made some assumptions before but felt I was on the right direction when I saw your chart with the complete data of wave 1.

Now I see your wave 2 there is a zigzag confirming my earlier assumptions. So I would expect a Complex sideways expanding wave 4 which should be around 38.2% of wave 3. In this case I would look forward to seeing a FLAT or a triangle as per guideline set bythe book.

So yes, we have 2 potential counts for this monthly wave 4. We can either have that triangle where we can consider all these legs as part of the triangle and that last leg down as already a part of the Final wave 5 on the monthly chart or still just the wave E of a triangle.

Considering that as a wave E would mean that the wave A of big wave 4 is a 3 wave structure. this means that wave B should either be a FLAT or a Triangle. This is where my assumptions that we are in a wave B triangle come in as it is still within the Guideline.

But you are right, we just have to follow what we see on our charts now. At least we have info on 2 possible counts on the longer tf at the back of our mind and know why both are possible.

Good trading to you And everyone else .

Ok... got to have some breakfast before I plunge deep in here.

EG

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EG, at 15m chart now like triangle...

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too small pict...
EG i have 2 position buy 1.4758 and sell 1.4703...which must i closed and which must i go runing...???????

GBPJPY

Expecting GBPJPY to come down to test the bottom at 213.59 in a Zigzag since wave A up was in 5 moves.

If it breaches former low from yesterday, then we are probably back to the downtrend.

If it holds, I just might trade Long on this one on the end of wave 2 of the wave c going up.

EG

Adji04

I would rather not tell you whether to close or to hold on to any position right now. We have to take responsibility for our own trades. In as much as I would like to help you, the trade offs of holding on and biting the bullet if it goes against you is something every trader needs to learn.

I have learned this the hard way usually sacrificing majority of my capital only to see price retrace to save what would have still been my capital.

To cut the long story short, use proper money management. Like Tim has mentioned in one of his initial posts, we do not have to be in a trade all the time. We just have to select the best ones.

Now here is the long story......

I went out of the market early this morning and went to bed and slept soundly without a trade running. I studied the charts where price would go in the next hours using EW and some other strategies then went off to bed. Now I check if it is still on course then wait and decide for the next set up to trade.

Tim has shared a valuable lesson here and in his thread about trading the breakouts from the triangle and the flag. Waiting for the breakouts from this ABC or 123 patterns which if I understood it correctly does not necessarily give you the most number of pips in a given wave, but it gives you maybe less pips but high probability set ups that you can maximize using your capital even for just a few pips.

A parallel strategy is that of Linuxtroll's Rainbow which uses 5second to 1min and 5min charts just to scalp a few pips at least but with more lots. But he now sells the ebook for that strategy. A free and actually workable and now free Strategy is the one from TheWicker with his Trend Follower Strategy.

But trading the breakouts from the triangles and the flags is probably simpler than the other strategies I mentioned.

The only thing I can suggest to you now is for you to probably go back to demo or reduce your number of live trades PLUS use the least amount of your capital to trade possible while doing LIVE trades.

Then maybe you can start learning to hedge. But hedging is more for the pros. If I as an amateur does that, I have higher risks of wiping out my account. I think one only hedges when they trade heavy.

Now enough of my ramblings..... I hope I helped to enlighten you...

Sorry if that went too long.


EG

Price has gone up while I slept... retracing towards 76.4% of wave A of what I think is a wave 2 down.

I will have to adjust my targets for the Zigzag wave down.

I think the sub wave c down is having a leading diagonal wave 1 now and likely doing wave 2 before plunging for wave 3 and end wave 5 down @ 1.4679 which is 50% retrace of main wave 1 from 1.4580 to 1.4780 or if extended would then be tillFE 161.8 @ 1.4629 which is also the 76.4% of the main wave 1.Then I would look for new Long trades at this levels.

EG

Note that Triangles in Elliott Wave Principles are found in

Wave 1 or A - Leading Diagonal Triangle
===This is followed by a retrace after a breakout to the opposite direction

Wave 5 or C - Ending Diagonal Triangle
=== Followed by an opposite Price direction

Wave 4 or also B - As Contracting, Expanding or as a Barrier Triangle
==== Followed by a continuation of the main trend

Carefull though of breakouts which are actually Throwovers or in some throwunders.

Not all breakouts from Triangle Patterns indicate price direction of the Breakout continuation.

EG

PS. oooooopppps I missed to include Wave B

Here's the wave 2 of the USDJPY.

Thank you Tim

I guess some sleep helped clear up my Brain and eyes.

EG