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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #1,021
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:00pm Jan 3, 2008 4:00pm
Quoting Thexder
Based on 162 theory, the short I took this morning has completed and a new cycle might start on the swing that hit the 162 level as I've drawn now with the blue fib on GU, and it looks to me like it wants to break down again, it's taken 3 tries at 1.9700 today.
My weekly GBP/USD shows that a previous cycle ends at 1.9700.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-weekly.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #1,022
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:06pm Jan 3, 2008 4:06pm
I know we all want to grasp as much of this as possible, but didn't Skunny say that eventually the 161.8 / -61.8 levels would become unimportant? Assuming that is correct, how can that be the signal that a cycle has ended? Just wondering...
  • #1,023
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:13pm Jan 3, 2008 4:13pm
I feel like we're all trapped in a house trying to find the way out and Jigsaw is watching us on a monitor somewhere.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,024
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:14pm Jan 3, 2008 4:14pm
Quoting Pipskateer
I know we all want to grasp as much of this as possible, but didn't Skunny say that eventually the 161.8 / -61.8 levels would become unimportant? Assuming that is correct, how can that be the signal that a cycle has ended? Just wondering...
As I said, it's possible he's using a different method but I've found that 161.8 shifts my targets. Another possibility would be that hitting 138.2 on both sides of the Fib signals that a cycle has ended, but that does not always happen (doesn't happen that often when I look at it historically) and could end up leaving a ton of hanging cycles out there.

When I use 161.8, there are no hanging cycles that I've found to date since there are no truly range-bound markets we're trading.

I've been waiting to hear how Skunny views cycles, so I guess I'll exercise patience and continue to apply the learnings to historical data. However, I doubt he's going to handfeed us the way to trade this method and thus it seems we will all end up with different rules, methods, and applications which could be for the best since it means we all did the research.
  • #1,025
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:19pm Jan 3, 2008 4:19pm
Quoting Thexder
Based on 162 theory, the short I took this morning has completed and a new cycle might start on the swing that hit the 162 level as I've drawn now with the blue fib on GU, and it looks to me like it wants to break down again, it's taken 3 tries at 1.9700 today.

I have this one short to 1.9660 based on my fibs. 1.9650 is a logical support... lowell is right around there too. I got stuck in this trade all day waiting for it to complete. Sometimes I wonder why I ever trade ny.

I futz around all day and the make all my money in end of asian and london Much ado about nothing

Sizz
  • #1,026
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:29pm Jan 3, 2008 4:29pm
I ahve been doing the bulk my work based on the 138 I think in conjunction with the comment that it becomes unimportant and also Skunny says:

hey you guyyyyyyyyyyys!! just use 0/100 and 138's..led me to stick with it.

PLus so far so good now if this riggenfragging noggin raggin gu would complete.. who is buying @ 1.9700? I mean it is a KINDA SORTA important demand level but.. what about me?

Who else has charted the cable? Thoughts?

hehehe

Sizz.
  • #1,027
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:39pm Jan 3, 2008 4:39pm
Quoting sizzler
I ahve been doing the bulk my work based on the 138 I think in conjunction with the comment that it becomes unimportant and also Skunny says:

hey you guyyyyyyyyyyys!! just use 0/100 and 138's..led me to stick with it.

PLus so far so good now if this riggenfragging noggin raggin gu would complete.. who is buying @ 1.9700? I mean it is a KINDA SORTA important demand level but.. what about me?

Who else has charted the cable? Thoughts?

hehehe

Sizz.
If you only use 138's, then how do you end a cycle? 2 of Skunny's charts so far show a cycle that hits 138 and yet he still uses the lines going forward.

I took his meaning of "just use 0/100/138" to mean those are the only lines we should trade, open trade at 0/100 and take profit at 138.

As for cable... I have support at 1.9700 to end a 3 month old cycle, double support at 1.965 (138.2% on each of last 2 weekly bars), and double support at 1.9620-25 (100% on a 8 month old cycle and 138.2% on last 2 week cycle)
  • #1,028
  • Edited 4:56pm Jan 3, 2008 4:53pm | Edited 4:56pm
Quoting youalreadykn
If you only use 138's, then how do you end a cycle? 2 of Skunny's charts so far show a cycle that hits 138 and yet he still uses the lines going forward.

I took his meaning of "just use 0/100/138" to mean those are the only lines we should trade, open trade at 0/100 and take profit at 138.
I just flip a coin j/k

You are correct sah about the charts. you know I think we might be saying the same thing a different way?

Often there is a master fib and a slave fib moves within in it I often wonder what those Skunny fibs look like from larger tfs again I am doing stuff and it seems to be working.. "I am not a smart man Jennay" like hello G/U? I am so short in that... who just bought the socks off that pair?? prolly that King character!!

Have you checked the larger tfs?

also if my tp is hit what does that mean? other then me doing cartwheels like a drunken clown? I use more makeup though... helps me trade.

Sizz

EDIT you mention double supports at 1.9650 so I guess that make us both on the same side of issue.
  • #1,029
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:55pm Jan 3, 2008 4:55pm
Quoting SBrickman
http://i7.tinypic.com/71gxqf8.gif

USDJPY Price seems to find the fib projections (orange lines). Just shifting previous day's intraday fibs over onto current day.

Here's the GBPJPY H4 chart:

http://i18.tinypic.com/6t5bdcl.gif
you know by using those areas as support resistence you're still using a indicator!
  • #1,030
  • Jan 3, 2008 5:12pm Jan 3, 2008 5:12pm
Quoting youalreadykn
My weekly GBP/USD shows that a previous cycle ends at 1.9700.

Attachment
If you are right the according to your chart, the previous cycle is not complete. Therefore GU will continue down to at least 1.9275 (to hit the -0.382) or up to hit the =161 which is around 2.2100
Is that what you are saying- or have I misinterpreted?
  • #1,031
  • Jan 3, 2008 5:36pm Jan 3, 2008 5:36pm
Quoting ianf0ster
If you are right the according to your chart, the previous cycle is not complete. Therefore GU will continue down to at least 1.9275 (to hit the -0.382) or up to hit the =161 which is around 2.2100
Is that what you are saying- or have I misinterpreted?
My chart is telling me:
Downside: 1.9230 for the 138.2% and 1.9000 for the 161.8%
Upside: 2.1030 for the -38.2% and 2.1280 for the -61.8%

I'm considering a short around 1.95 to target the 1.9230 mark, but I don't want to get ahead of myself so I'll just watch price action play itself out and make the trade when the chart tells me to.
  • #1,032
  • Edited 10:50pm Jan 3, 2008 5:49pm | Edited 10:50pm
Edit: Removed extraneous content
  • #1,033
  • Edited 6:28pm Jan 3, 2008 6:15pm | Edited 6:28pm
Quoting Pipskateer
Riggenfragging noggin raggin....sounds like classic Fred Flintstone! I like it!

I have the GU aiming for a zero level at 1.9650. I also have active short targets at 1.9622 and 1.9574. Shoulda entered at 1.9754, but piddled around earlier and missed my entry....in at 1.9731.

I also show an unfinished upper cycle with an upside target of 2.0393 and a downside of 1.9080.
pretty much WILMMMMMMMA!!
!I too entered ickaboo on the gu. . great london terrible NY.

I sinned cardinally and paid paid paid for it. stupid basics... oh well the market will pay me back... or I will go to its house. I have taken enough from it this week so I am not to angry...

hurt mostly. I thought we were friends after last two londons. someone is not getting a christmas card this year

so far I like the 1.9650 level as everyone has it plus it is a gbp fave and that is my fib target

wouldn't that tp trigger you red.magenta fibs downside as well on the break of the 0

also you figure the cycle complete on the break of the 138 meaning we are now bearish with the 100 being the immediate market topsidemax if so then I agree if not I want to learn your point of view

. If neither I am at a loss as you sir are a mystery!


Sizz

edit anyone looking at my favorrrrrite pound franc? man can someone actually make the poundfranc as a singular currency. Poundswiss with work but swissy no no nein! this is so well behaved.
  • #1,034
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:06pm Jan 3, 2008 8:06pm
Hi Guys,
I am not trying to be a downer here as I am learning so much, but I have to voice my concerns about how the thread is progressing. Many of you have been here in FF posting for a long time and I am a long time member but only have started posting here in this thread....but...I remember what skunny said in his first thread and his very first sentence was.." Against my better judgement" which lead me to believe he has serious reservations about started a thread like this to begin with and he also has stated to me a in his answer to my thread that he did NOT want us to post trades yet. I am just concerned about the longivity of this thread if we don't abide by the rules. Skunny has only shown us about 1% and a couple chapters of what is a very big book he has to share. I am sure you agree with me when I say that I want to know every bit of the entire thing and was just wanting everyone to be aware that we need to be careful not to cross the line here. I hope I don't offend anyone as that is not my intention but for the good of all I just ask you to take it under serious consideration because I see alot of trades being posted of late. Skunny merely wants us to ask questions and post charts about his theory and debate it but I think he feels without us knowing the full story we are in jeopardy of a let down. Sorry to be a downer.

Am I being too serious here or are my points valid?

Daniel
  • #1,035
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:13pm Jan 3, 2008 8:13pm
Quoting 4X4EVER
Hi Guys,
I am not trying to be a downer here as I am learning so much, but I have to voice my concerns about how the thread is progressing. Many of you have been here in FF posting for a long time and I am a long time member but only have started posting here in this thread....but...I remember what skunny said in his first thread and his very first sentence was.." Against my better judgement" which lead me to believe he has serious reservations about started a thread like this to begin with and he also has stated to me a in his answer to my thread that he did NOT want us to post trades yet. I am just concerned about the longivity of this thread if we don't abide by the rules. Skunny has only shown us about 1% and a couple chapters of what is a very big book he has to share. I am sure you agree with me when I say that I want to know every bit of the entire thing and was just wanting everyone to be aware that we need to be careful not to cross the line here. I hope I don't offend anyone as that is not my intention but for the good of all I just ask you to take it under serious consideration because I see alot of trades being posted of late. Skunny merely wants us to ask questions and post charts about his theory and debate it but I think he feels without us knowing the full story we are in jeopardy of a let down. Sorry to be a downer.

Am I being too serious here or are my points valid?

Daniel
If the thread evolves into a trading signal thread, then I'm 100% with you.
  • #1,036
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:29pm Jan 3, 2008 8:29pm
Maybe a compromise between pure trade posting vs posting charts for the purpose of evolving the learning process through example and seeking opinions on the analysis. We can keep in line by asking ourselves when posting a trade or chart, "Am I asking a specific question about this based on the type of analysis we're learning, or am I on a tangent to the thread?"
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,037
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:36pm Jan 3, 2008 8:36pm
Hmm... good point. Very good point. How does everyone feel if we just post charts and debate and not so much say I took this or la la la... I wonder though if taking trades or paper trades isn;t part of the process.

I don;t really know the best way I am open and for the time being I will keep my trades off of the thread and attack the theoretical aspects of the process as I am in the dark still in so much as I wouldn;t trade solely off of fibs hence don;t have a mastery of them.

I also noticed like a generational thing.. because the spirit of the method isn;t being discussed and only trade for the most part a lot of new people are getting stunted or confused.

Man where is skunny when you need him in recap does anyone see and issue with posting Ah chart and saying I think this this and this..

we have been kind of free form...I am down for whatever makes the thread better and keeps us on course.

Sizz.
  • #1,038
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:37pm Jan 3, 2008 8:37pm
Everyone just take a deep breath. The trades will come.
  • #1,039
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:43pm Jan 3, 2008 8:43pm
Quoting sizzler
Hmm... good point. Very good point. How does everyone feel if we just post charts and debate and not so much say I took this or la la la... I wonder though if taking trades or paper trades isn;t part of the process.

I don;t really know the best way I am open and for the time being I will keep my trades off of the thread and attack the theoretical aspects of the process as I am in the dark still in so much as I wouldn;t trade solely off of fibs hence don;t have a mastery of them.

I also noticed like a generational thing.. because the spirit of the method isn;t being discussed and only trade for the most part a lot of new people are getting stunted or confused.

Man where is skunny when you need him in recap does anyone see and issue with posting Ah chart and saying I think this this and this..

we have been kind of free form...I am down for whatever makes the thread better and keeps us on course.

Sizz.

if you want to see some great traders in action and their anlaysis on the gpb/jpy gpb/usd and usd/jpy vist auslancos thread we'd love to see your charts and fib analysis there! goes for all but dont post trades only anlaysis and where you think price may head and why...... as for this thread maybe everyone should just chill*including me ) unless you have a question you need an anwer to that skunny or someone else can answer.... charts are good for asking those questions... but IMO we should wait for skunnys next lesson and keep the thread clean good trading all!
  • #1,040
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:44pm Jan 3, 2008 8:44pm
Quoting sizzler
Hmm... good point. Very good point. How does everyone feel if we just post charts and debate and not so much say I took this or la la la... I wonder though if taking trades or paper trades isn;t part of the process.

I don;t really know the best way I am open and for the time being I will keep my trades off of the thread and attack the theoretical aspects of the process as I am in the dark still in so much as I wouldn;t trade solely off of fibs hence don;t have a mastery of them.

I also noticed like a generational thing.. because the spirit of the method isn;t being discussed and only trade for the most part a lot of new people are getting stunted or confused.

Man where is skunny when you need him in recap does anyone see and issue with posting Ah chart and saying I think this this and this..

we have been kind of free form...I am down for whatever makes the thread better and keeps us on course.

Sizz.
I agree with this approach whole heartedly.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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