Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

Quoting Jared

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Thanks. I wish I wasn't so dang computer incompetent. Those files you mentioned do not have much in them. It's my users folder, apparently. Don't know why, it says it is taking 49 Gig but when I click on properties of all the files contained in it it doesn't add up to near that. My pictures folder is 17 Gig, but still, there should be another at least 20 Gig free space even with all the junk I have saved.

Anyway, I know some computer geeks, I suppose I'll get them to help me. Thanks though.

I really wan't to try vHands!! Especially since it is the weekend.

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Quoting Pipskateer

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That's odd...sounds like it could also have a virus. I'd make sure all your AV/Firewall stuff is up to date and then run a virus/spyware scan. You might also try the free HouseCall online scan from Trend Micro at:

http://housecall.trendmicro.com/

Best wishes!

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Quoting sizzler

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" if we can observe and measure cycles can we not also measure the time in which the cycles flow by some sort of rotational speed measurement ? "

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Quoting Pipskateer

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I am working on Vhands and I'm having some uncertainty about how to read things. I've made a chart of the H4 GBP/JPY covering the majority of September 2007. I've labeled what I feel are the major S/R points and I'm hoping some of you can give your analysis of how to walk the fibs across this chart and read the PA (don't cheat and peek ahead! lol).

First, I'll give you my interpretation and then if some of you can critique that would certainly help. Maybe there are some other folks out there who are being silent who are having some trouble in this area and some dialogue in this area may help.

Here's the chart:

I first pulled a fib from point #16 to #13. Then I pulled from #13 to #11 and they were almost exactly the same. All other points from there forward in time are within that same 0-100 fibo range except for the most recent point #1 which has now broken the #13 level.

My first question is where should my current fibs be pulled from/to? Should they still be from #13 to #11 or somewhere else? If somewhere else, where and why?

Now that the #13 fib level is broken, what should we be expecting price to do now?

Also, I know there may be higher level moves that may be in play, but Vhands doesn't allow you to change TF's in the middle of the game. How do you analyze how higher TF moves affect your lower TF fibos? I assume this must be done directly on a live chart, not Vhands?

How do you know your lower TF moves are realigning into the upper TF moves/fibs? Has anyone seen this and charted it?

Price is going to do whatever it's going to do, but having the right fibos drawn is (I guess) the key to being able to interpret price action in a predictive way. I really want to learn this and become a confident trader. I have a strong feeling that getting this stuff right can change your life....and I certainly need that kind of change right about now.

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Quoting 24HourTrader

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Regarding this chart, now that there has finally been a break of the fib from #13 to #16, we should expect it to hit the 138% of that fib, if I'm understanding corrrectly. If it doesnt do it(don't know how long we give it the chance to) we should expect it to have a dramatic reversal and retrace to the lower fib retracement levels but eventually return up there? That seems to be the consensus, please someone tell me if I'm off.

As for where the chart ends, I would think you would want a smaller fib drawn from#1 to #2(or maybe #1 to #5?) for short term entries, most likely long...but then again, if it fails to reach 138%(again not sure how long we allow if before we decide to change the plan, maybe if it reverses to a certain %?), that may mean it is due for a BIG retrace, and we should use the largest fib, the original # 17 to #16????

Just some ideas, hopefully as I continue to pile on the Vhands hours this will become clear. I myself am used to smaller TF's so Vhands has been extremely useful for stuff like this. I defintiely feel like we are all getting somewhere though! If I may, allow me to show some gratitude to Vhands with a haiku:

Vhands, light the night
no need for candles for now
glow of screen enough

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Quoting Jared

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Found the problem........it was vHands!! I must have a setting wrong or something. It turned out to be a 27 Gig text file! Didn't know there could be one 27 Gig, that is huge. I deleted it. It must have been the tick data that vHands was downloading. I just didn't know where to look for it at first. It was a hidden file apparently.

So now the question remains, how do I either
A) Save the tick info on another drive (I have another drive with 50 Gig free)
or
B) Reduce the amount of data downloaded,
or, both A and B?

Some ideas......perhaps change the amount of time the history goes back (say 1 yr instead of indefinately)......or perhaps don't save ticks, just save 1 min or 1 hr or something, less data that way.

Any thoughts?

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Quoting dagoods

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am i drawing these fibs about right for gpb/jpy?? skuuny? anyone? just wondering if I am starting to get it or if I am way off base

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Quoting Gjfx

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Jared: same thing happened to me last week when starting with vHands- maxed out the C drive within minutes :surprised

Indeed it is one or several huge FXT files found in folder C:\Program Files\MT4\Tester\History. Not a virus

The reason its happening is due to selecting 'Every Tick' in the Model option. If you press Start when this is selected you will see data downloading fast in the bottom right corner to produce that very large FXT file.

Instead, select 'Open prices only' and it should load up within seconds and produce a FXT file less than 1MB.

Using 'Open prices only' doesnt reduce the quality of your testing as you really dont need to see every tick in every bar. Remember you can reduce the speed on the bar next to the >> play/pause button if the bars are appearing too fast.

You can get plenty more useful info and direct any further questions on vHands to BlueRubys thread here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60849

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Quoting SBrickman

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http://i7.tinypic.com/71gxqf8.gif

Price seems to find the fib projections (orange lines). Just shifting previous day's intraday fibs over onto current day.

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Quoting sizzler

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VHANDS

So far I have been primarily working with Doller yen on the D1(my preferred TF). I have traded flawlessly( no losses , no stops hit all tps hit absolutely no damage taken and fatality executed! hehe) since 12/19/2006 to end of april 07. If it continues through friday I will go back and hit another year back to the start of tick data to verify. If not we go back to the drawing board

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Quoting sizzler

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Alright,

Hopefully we can see Skunny back in January , and I, and I think a lot of other people have muy grande questions.

Here is what I am working and my results( like anyone cares hehehe I am posting to not only hold the the ( I type stuttered! hehehe) analysis accountable if it is flawed ,but to hopefully get some feed back and a group work through. I see people here all the time where are the rest of you guys?

as always I could be super wrong but I won't know until.
a.) Skunny tells me OR what is a more likely event given the fact that if he was going to do something like that he would just tell us what to do from the get go.
b.) Vhands andor live trading breakdown indicating my methodology and or hypthesis is wrong or the opposite

The good thing is if you take this under the guiding principle "it works" you are abosultely right or wrong there is no kind of which make testing much easier.

VHANDS

So far I have been primarily working with Doller yen on the D1(my preferred TF). I have traded flawlessly( no losses , no stops hit all tps hit absolutely no damage taken and fatality executed! hehe) since 12/19/2006 to end of april 07. If it continues through friday I will go back and hit another year back to the start of tick data to verify. If not we go back to the drawing board

If testing bears out :
this will also confirm(IMO) my long term short TP of 106.5 from @ or below the 115.8 level. this is also very logical to me for a # of other reason so it looks promising.

I have been doing a lot of work with stops and price action and tps as defined by fib tf overlays.

The fib overlays gauge mini cycles a multi entry points and overall direction as daily cycle can stretch out and show multiple pull back or optimal entry /re-entry points if you will.

I find that on getting into chart I normally have to back a little bit and then move forward to pick up the "flow"

I was able to logically duplicate Skunny's monthly GBP/JPY chart through fib walking

I was able to duplicate the GBP/USD and I haven't touched the GBP/JPY 1H chart but it should stand since I was able to project it out past the red fib to the 233.55 level. We will see.

The 1H GBP/JPY chart overall has held the most clues and has really cracked this for me as far as where I am now. Right or wrong.

My primary focus is to prove or disprove you can predict market moves long term which was a hypothesis I was working on from S/r and market flow .

To that end I using a working hypothesis that by taking pulse of the market and using fib you can start to see ahead into flow using breaks and it deals with overiding movements and little mini cycles and by charting them out. sticking by the assertions that:

1.) I am doing this right
2.) it can be done

Price Forecasting Longer term

I have fibbed the gbp/jpy down to daily from monthly and if someone can corroborate or put in on this from there own work it would be really helpful

it is really rough sketch but my work has an interim immediate downside of 212.80 confirmed (after a touch of 227.34? I ahven;t gotten down to 4h 1h 15m yet to attempt to sunday monday upside if any).

I need to work out clear picture of complete downside( I am educated guessing with the amount of momentum the geppy normally has to the down side - 205.6 -201.6 fast and furious) with a floor of no lower then 180.10.

More interesting is that we look to resume the uptrend to the 273.70 range in '08 as a break of a 100 level has already signalled it.

I am also tossing around around the idea of the correlation of carry and equities unless there is a complete disconnect and IF this is right it could signal downside happening to the stock market which is also forming a head and shoulders pattern.

Who knows can anyone else fib this out and see what they get ?? I am going to have to wait up to 12 months to prove disprove this analysis.



LIVE

I have a EUR/NZD and a EUR/AUD(chart posted) trade on core methodology with fib overlays after the fact adn am using them as TPs.

It is important to note I have not changed my risk from my original entries so the fibs are just confirmation adn for setting tps.

I took a Fib and applied it to a live trade GBP/JPY on here earlier and was within 3 pips of target as defined by fib.

I also successfully took a usd/jpy trade using solely fib as I understand it and it was a success which doesn;t necessarily mean I did it right as price action confirmed the fib earlier then the fib signalled to enter , but gave me the needed info to confidently enter the trade primarily on fib and set risk.

All in all so far ...so what . nothing concrete , but we will see. As always this is mostly for enjoyment if I can log in the prerequisite 500 -1k trades on this I will have a clear picture of how reliable this is.

Bobokus you are the fib guy what is your take on this kind of stuff?

the next thing on the plate would be to find a way to accurately chart the timing of price if possible. I suspect that smaller tfs would act like speedometers in some way... who knows..

meh I am going to go get some booze in me and some dinner to unwind and get away from the crack that is vhands. I am now officially a complete and utter chart dork I just got my mbrshp crd and my brain is so fried I don;t know what is going on

Sizz

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Quoting Pipskateer

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I'm curious to know... How are you using Fibs to predict trade setups to such a flawless degree? This is the heart of what I hope to learn from Skunny. He pretty much states that by studying PA and then plotting fibs accordingly you can eventually discern where price is headed before it gets there.

I have been trading 2007 on Vhands and while I see price move amongst the fibo levels and touch them with very often uncanny accuracy, I still do not "see" how it is predictive. There are times when price approaches a level and pauses, touches it, retreats, then advances ahead.... Then other times, approaches, touches, and just retreats altogether. I know I'm missing pieces to the puzzle for sure. Skunny, and perhaps now you, are seeing things I do not see. The fibs seem amazing in how price reacts around the levels, but I'm not getting how to ever begin trading them. It's still pretty much like trying to predict whether the next price tick will be up or down...a coin toss.

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Quoting forexlion

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take an example, yen pairs follow weekly fib ratios, but they also follow daily fib series.

But yen pairs never follow daily fib ratios and they never follow weekly fib series.

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