EG, I used to have the same count on monthly Yen....but I do not see your A wave as a 5 wave move...only a 3 wave......making it an a of an abcde...it is however my alternate count....right now on the daily, all the impulse waves are down at least for now...we'll follow those and see what happens..........
- #1,402
- Jan 2, 2008 5:38am Jan 2, 2008 5:38am
hi EG,
i saw that we are watching the same pairs.
EUR/USD
I think that EUR will make new highs in this qauter of the year. We must realize that we are still in very powerful bull counting. I saw that you are waitting this weave 2 to conclude. But i believe that this wave 2 already make his low.But this will be confirm when will trend break high 1,4747. This 2 wave made his low on the ideal support at previous zone of wave IV around 1,4580. This is very strong support, and from here is going up now already for 100 pips. So i believe that we are on the way to the wave 3...
USD/JPY
You are also watching this pair. I saw your monthly chart...This wave 4 that you are waitting it is already done in A_B_C_D_E pattern. But we must realize that there is not always ideal patterns in the market. in this case my wave B did not touch lower line. But we can see that is still very very powerfull patern to make new lows.
We must also consider that pairs EUR/USD and USD/JPY should be going in differnt direcitons.
i saw that we are watching the same pairs.
EUR/USD
I think that EUR will make new highs in this qauter of the year. We must realize that we are still in very powerful bull counting. I saw that you are waitting this weave 2 to conclude. But i believe that this wave 2 already make his low.But this will be confirm when will trend break high 1,4747. This 2 wave made his low on the ideal support at previous zone of wave IV around 1,4580. This is very strong support, and from here is going up now already for 100 pips. So i believe that we are on the way to the wave 3...
USD/JPY
You are also watching this pair. I saw your monthly chart...This wave 4 that you are waitting it is already done in A_B_C_D_E pattern. But we must realize that there is not always ideal patterns in the market. in this case my wave B did not touch lower line. But we can see that is still very very powerfull patern to make new lows.
We must also consider that pairs EUR/USD and USD/JPY should be going in differnt direcitons.
- #1,403
- Jan 2, 2008 5:58am Jan 2, 2008 5:58am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Looking for an UPWARD Trendline break on the 15min and the 4hour chart to enter an additional Short trade on the EURUSD.
Currently down 64 pips on an earlier entered short trade for a very small position.
EG
Currently down 64 pips on an earlier entered short trade for a very small position.
EG
- #1,404
- Jan 2, 2008 6:06am Jan 2, 2008 6:06am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
EG, I used to have the same count on monthly Yen....but I do not see your A wave as a 5 wave move...only a 3 wave......making it an a of an abcde...it is however my alternate count....right now on the daily, all the impulse waves are down at least for now...we'll follow those and see what happens..........
Glad to see you here. I have been lurking in your thread at the Trading Room and I am looking forward to learning from you.
FF needs to have more experienced Traders with a solid EW expertise. There were some who started their respective threads. Unfortunately, many have fallen out and rarely post in FF nowadays.
So... WELCOME to FF and I hope you stay around and share with us your EW expertise.
EG
- #1,406
- Jan 2, 2008 7:05pm Jan 2, 2008 7:05pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Good Morning Everyone.
Happy New Year to You too Victa.
Last night was not that good for me. I got stopped out on my small short trade yesterday. Then I also entered another short trade when price hit 1.4700 which turned positive +50.....then my internet connection failed and I could not see how price was performing anymore. Bottomline is I had to exit it for a LOSS when the internet connection got back. That entry at 1.47 for a short trade was based on technicals which I was also considering as potential end of a higher wave 4. That was the reason I did not scalp it.
I should have realized this sooner. Price last night bounced off the Strong Resistance/Support level of Murrey Math Indicator.
Both of my assumptions that EURUSD was either in a wave 4 up and a wave 2 down were both proven wrong as price has gone higher than the wave 1 end .
Price for January was already above the Monthly and the weekly Pivot. That should signal a very strong possibility that price is going to keep going up. On the intraday scenario, Price staying above the Daily Pivot means price being mostly Bullish for the Day. And by referring to the weekly Pivot too where you see price being above it also increases the probability of price being Bullish.
Monthly Pivot is @ 1.4560
Weekly Pivot is @ 1.4606
Daily Pivot is @ 1.4703
Right now ... Price is @ 1.4721 which is above Daily Pivot @ 1.4703
I have a Bullish Bias now considering that the Price surge to 1.4749 was potentially the end of Wave 3 Up from the 1.4309 level as wave 0 and the drop to 1.
For now, I will be referring to the technical side while I re-assess my EW Count.
EG
Happy New Year to You too Victa.
Last night was not that good for me. I got stopped out on my small short trade yesterday. Then I also entered another short trade when price hit 1.4700 which turned positive +50.....then my internet connection failed and I could not see how price was performing anymore. Bottomline is I had to exit it for a LOSS when the internet connection got back. That entry at 1.47 for a short trade was based on technicals which I was also considering as potential end of a higher wave 4. That was the reason I did not scalp it.
I should have realized this sooner. Price last night bounced off the Strong Resistance/Support level of Murrey Math Indicator.
Both of my assumptions that EURUSD was either in a wave 4 up and a wave 2 down were both proven wrong as price has gone higher than the wave 1 end .
Price for January was already above the Monthly and the weekly Pivot. That should signal a very strong possibility that price is going to keep going up. On the intraday scenario, Price staying above the Daily Pivot means price being mostly Bullish for the Day. And by referring to the weekly Pivot too where you see price being above it also increases the probability of price being Bullish.
Monthly Pivot is @ 1.4560
Weekly Pivot is @ 1.4606
Daily Pivot is @ 1.4703
Right now ... Price is @ 1.4721 which is above Daily Pivot @ 1.4703
I have a Bullish Bias now considering that the Price surge to 1.4749 was potentially the end of Wave 3 Up from the 1.4309 level as wave 0 and the drop to 1.
For now, I will be referring to the technical side while I re-assess my EW Count.
EG
- #1,407
- Jan 2, 2008 8:37pm Jan 2, 2008 8:37pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
[quote=money;1780417]hi EG,
i saw that we are watching the same pairs.
EUR/USD
I think that EUR will make new highs in this qauter of the year. We must realize that we are still in very powerful bull counting. I saw that you are waitting this weave 2 to conclude. But i believe that this wave 2 already make his low.But this will be confirm when will trend break high 1,4747. This 2 wave made his low on the ideal support at previous zone of wave IV around 1,4580. This is very strong support, and from here is going up now already for 100 pips. So i believe that we are on the way to the wave 3...
Hey Grega...
Looks like You were right on the EURUSD. Wave 3 may have ended at 1.4749 and the wave 4 at 1.4641
If that is the case, EURUSD may be developing a big wave 5 now.
EG
i saw that we are watching the same pairs.
EUR/USD
I think that EUR will make new highs in this qauter of the year. We must realize that we are still in very powerful bull counting. I saw that you are waitting this weave 2 to conclude. But i believe that this wave 2 already make his low.But this will be confirm when will trend break high 1,4747. This 2 wave made his low on the ideal support at previous zone of wave IV around 1,4580. This is very strong support, and from here is going up now already for 100 pips. So i believe that we are on the way to the wave 3...
Hey Grega...
Looks like You were right on the EURUSD. Wave 3 may have ended at 1.4749 and the wave 4 at 1.4641
If that is the case, EURUSD may be developing a big wave 5 now.
EG
- #1,408
- Jan 2, 2008 8:52pm Jan 2, 2008 8:52pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
EG, I used to have the same count on monthly Yen....but I do not see your A wave as a 5 wave move...only a 3 wave......making it an a of an abcde...it is however my alternate count....right now on the daily, all the impulse waves are down at least for now...we'll follow those and see what happens..........
You are right Tim.
I must admit I tried to force that 5 wave count there which actually looked inappropriate.
Now looking at the retracements made by succeeding waves, they may not all have been exactly at 61.8% of previous waves, but they sure are within the vicinity and that includes my Wave A.
So if all are considered as 3 wave structured and the 61.8% retrace +/- lumped together, then a throwover may be used to describe the last wave up as potyential end of Wave 4 on the monthly chart.
EG
[quote=el grande;1781747]
==========
El grante..we waiting your's euruds chatrs for better description..
now..we waiting till 4750 break..
hi EG,
i saw that we are watching the same pairs.
EUR/USD
I think that EUR will make new highs in this qauter of the year. We must realize that we are still in very powerful bull counting. I saw that you are waitting this weave 2 to conclude. But i believe that this wave 2 already make his low.But this will be confirm when will trend break high 1,4747. This 2 wave made his low on the ideal support at previous zone of wave IV around 1,4580. This is very strong support, and from here is going up now already for 100 pips. So i believe that we are on the way to the wave 3...
Hey Grega...
Looks like You were right on the EURUSD. Wave 3 may have ended at 1.4749 and the wave 4 at 1.4641
If that is the case, EURUSD may be developing a big wave 5 now.
EG
El grante..we waiting your's euruds chatrs for better description..
now..we waiting till 4750 break..
- #1,413
- Jan 2, 2008 10:29pm Jan 2, 2008 10:29pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
yes, technical target for this particular pattern will be 100 pips above breakout level......flags are formed from people taking profits during slower hours of trading.....the wave itself was not done forming before volitility fell off for the day........
Thank you Tim for pointing out the Bullish FLAG.
If wave 4 which ended at 1.4644 ( C end is higher than Aend ) is a running FLAT, then subwave 1 of 5 ended at 1.4749 and this BULLISH Flag may be the sub Wave 2 of 5.
Initially I thought it was developing into a triangle so that I considered the 1.4641 as the origin of sub wave 1 of 5. so that I have
sub wave 1 of 5 end @ 1.4697 and
sub wave 2 of 5 dipping to 1.4644 then
sub wave 3 of 5 @ 1.4749
while sub wave 4 of 5 developing into a triangle to accommodate the overlapping of sub wave 1 and subwave 4.
However it did not look like a triangle anymore and it has sat on the Daily pivot level for sometime now.
Then I tried Channelling and there I saw the better fit was to consider a Running FLAT for the Wave 4 then use 1.4644 as origin of Sub wave 1 of 5 ending @ 1.4749.
Then Tim's Bullish Flag will fit into a sub wave 2 and price to breakout from that Bullish flag for sub wave 3 of 5.
Based on channelling, my targets would be :
1.4770 @ Daily R2
1.4812 @ Daily R3
1.4839 @ Weekly R1
I would make an assumption that Price will breakout of the channel as this is Sub wave 3 of 5 and woud most likely reach Weekly R1 @ 1.4839
If Price breaksout as Tim has suggested ( which is very likely ) then a breakout from 1.4712 ( he aims for at least 100 pips ) lands EURUSD price at 1.4812 which is the Daily R3.
EG
- #1,414
- Edited 11:02pm Jan 2, 2008 10:48pm | Edited 11:02pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
I just discovered that I was getting different set ups from 2 MT4 Platforms I was using which may have been confusing me as I was using meta quotes to chart my EW counts while I was using fibo-group for my technical side.
some how they did not match and I just found out why I was having trouble with that running flat wave 4. meta-quote extended down way way low while fibo-group exhibited more of a better set up for a running flat corrective wave 4.
Attached are the 2 charts
For Better RR, I believe it is best to wait for 1.4750 as Tim has suggested. Unless a Bullish candle probably opens and closes above that downward trendline.
Tim, what do you think?
EG
some how they did not match and I just found out why I was having trouble with that running flat wave 4. meta-quote extended down way way low while fibo-group exhibited more of a better set up for a running flat corrective wave 4.
Attached are the 2 charts
For Better RR, I believe it is best to wait for 1.4750 as Tim has suggested. Unless a Bullish candle probably opens and closes above that downward trendline.
Tim, what do you think?
EG
- #1,415
- Edited 11:35pm Jan 2, 2008 11:14pm | Edited 11:35pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Here is how I see EURUSD now.
I now have a bias for the sub wave 4 Bullish Flag Scenario. where sub wave 3 has made a breakout of the Channel and came back into it forming a bullish flag wave 4.
Waiting for a high probability profitable trade set-up for this sub wave 5 of 5.
Now you may ask , why not enter at the bottom of that channel or that rightside of the channel as price bounces of off it?
Wel maybe we can but we have to set a tight stop loss. But it I believe now that the 1.4750 is the best level and the least risky to trade. hhmmm... unless by the rule of wave equality..... w5=w1 when wave 3 is extended. that would make trading a breakout from that level have a higher Risk.
Any one want to share their thoughts on this one?
EG
I now have a bias for the sub wave 4 Bullish Flag Scenario. where sub wave 3 has made a breakout of the Channel and came back into it forming a bullish flag wave 4.
Waiting for a high probability profitable trade set-up for this sub wave 5 of 5.
Now you may ask , why not enter at the bottom of that channel or that rightside of the channel as price bounces of off it?
Wel maybe we can but we have to set a tight stop loss. But it I believe now that the 1.4750 is the best level and the least risky to trade. hhmmm... unless by the rule of wave equality..... w5=w1 when wave 3 is extended. that would make trading a breakout from that level have a higher Risk.
Any one want to share their thoughts on this one?
EG
- #1,418
- Jan 2, 2008 11:42pm Jan 2, 2008 11:42pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
wow...thank's el grande you're nice....
it will be help us for newbie like me to learned more eliotwave principal..
as you suggest i will be waited eur to break and open above 4750...
thank you
I do not recommend that you trade based on my EW Count. You will have to do your own counting too.
As you can see, I have made a mess of my EURUSD count on that wave 4 because I did not notice earlier that the platform I was using for my EW charting most likely had an anomaly in the data.
I had a hard time with that wave 4 because I was expecting a Zigzag and yet the Leg C was already 300% of Wave A which was not acceptable for a C and A relationship in A Zigzag.
However, when I checked it out on another MT4 platform I realized that wave C fit the maximum allowed of 1.618 of A. That to me now settles the issue that price from 1.4747 down to 1.4641 was a Zigzag wave 4
So you have to be careful .
EG
- #1,420
- Jan 3, 2008 12:53am Jan 3, 2008 12:53am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Hi Tim..
Does the Breakout from the Bullish Flag also follow the Projection used on the triangle?
in the attached chart, wave 4 tok almost same amount of time to finish as wave 0-3.
If TP projection follows the same method as that for Triangles, then TP should be in the area of 1.4762?
I have set my initial target at 1.4770 which is at Daly R2. Anyway, I will be watching my charts so will be observing the wave development and make my exit decisions accordingly.
EG
Does the Breakout from the Bullish Flag also follow the Projection used on the triangle?
in the attached chart, wave 4 tok almost same amount of time to finish as wave 0-3.
If TP projection follows the same method as that for Triangles, then TP should be in the area of 1.4762?
I have set my initial target at 1.4770 which is at Daly R2. Anyway, I will be watching my charts so will be observing the wave development and make my exit decisions accordingly.
EG
