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Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #1,381
  • Dec 30, 2007 9:19pm Dec 30, 2007 9:19pm
bro, how about predict eur/usd with elliot for today (daily,horly,4H) because i have position with this currency..
what's sugest for this curr..buy again or stand aside??
and where's another site to predict eur/usd with elliotwave..?
last..which best tools to combine with elliot..
thenkyou...
  • #1,382
  • Dec 30, 2007 9:42pm Dec 30, 2007 9:42pm
Looks like 223.25-28 is a likely target to enter the Long Trades for me.

A few other systems have signalled 223.16 as potential bottom. So I am placing my Long Trades with validation from different systems I am experimenting on along side my EW Counts.

Stochastics, MACD and even the weekly S1 has signalled this.

Price is currently sitting on the 34 ema on the 5min chart.


EG
  • #1,383
  • Dec 30, 2007 9:46pm Dec 30, 2007 9:46pm
Quoting adji04
bro, how about predict eur/usd with elliot for today (daily,horly,4H) because i have position with this currency..
what's sugest for this curr..buy again or stand aside??
and where's another site to predict eur/usd with elliotwave..?
last..which best tools to combine with elliot..
thenkyou...

Sorry adji04.

I have to be honest with you on this EURUSD. I just closed my short trades for EURUSD and GBPUSD this morning for some substantial loss. both these pairs are still supposed to come down for wave 2 but I decided to bite the bullet to trade just 1 pair for the moment instead of monitoring 3. So I will not be the best person to give you advise on this.

EG
  • #1,384
  • Edited 10:39pm Dec 30, 2007 10:04pm | Edited 10:39pm
Dissecting the EW Labelling further using Channelling, it looks like the bottom after all has not been in place yet.

And the 222.67 may still be inplay. I am currently out of any trade now and just waiting for what I think is the right time to enter my Long trade.

EG

PS. I would like to remind everyone following this thread not to base their trades on my EW Counts as these are continiuosly understudy. It may give you some idea sometimes but one needs to base their trades on their own analysis of the charts.
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  • #1,385
  • Dec 30, 2007 10:17pm Dec 30, 2007 10:17pm
more scribbled charts....


Note that a throwunder for price to reach 221.95 or 221.69 is still possible to keep the 0123 Triangulation valid as well as the EW Counts.

Using Pivots, I would say that the Weekly S2 @ 221.20 may also still hold as final Support prior to going up. But this does not seem to blend well with my EW Count.

One thing though about how I trade is I still keep an open mind if there are some differences between my EW Count and the other tools I use. It is either I enter with a minimum amount to risk or I wait till I get a better signal.

EG
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  • #1,386
  • Dec 31, 2007 5:37am Dec 31, 2007 5:37am
Quoting adji04
bro, how about predict eur/usd with elliot for today (daily,horly,4H) because i have position with this currency..
what's sugest for this curr..buy again or stand aside??
and where's another site to predict eur/usd with elliotwave..?
last..which best tools to combine with elliot..
thenkyou...
Hello adji04. Here you can see my Elliott counting on eur-usd. i think that we should see some retricement in this wave 2 in3 waves. I will wait for this retricement, to look for new positions to go long. I would like to see drop down to around 1,4580- 1,4620. i hope that this helps you a little. You can also check our analyses here. But i did not updated them for today. nice trading, Grega
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  • #1,387
  • Jan 1, 2008 7:35am Jan 1, 2008 7:35am
there is any software reliable with EWC? Or is awyas neessary discretion?
  • #1,388
  • Edited 2:52pm Jan 1, 2008 2:27pm | Edited 2:52pm
Good Morning Everyone....

Here is my take on the EURUSD. This is actually the Pair where I entered a Long trade during the last trading Hour of my Dec 31 2007 which I have carried thu to 2008.

Entered at 1.4601 of which 1.4595 was supposed to be my preferred entry level.

Anyway, I was trying to dissect this pairs EW count and here is briefly what i think. Charts to follow...

I believe EURUSD is in a wave 4 now. Wave 2 was more like a sideways expanding wave 1.3851 - 1.3360. So I will be expecting a Zigzag wave 4 from 1.4966 .

Wave 4 normally hits the 38.2% retracement level which has been achieved now from 1.4966 down to 1.3360 @ 1.4309. If you check further, Zigzags typically exhibit C=A which in this case the leg from 1.4966 down to 1.4309 also exhibits. So we have a potential end to wave 4 now. Note that it is still just a potential.

Looking at TIME, wave 2 took 10 hours to finish. while this potential wave 4 took 15 hours to accomplish. To me this seems a very likely end of wave 4 where Price and time factors are considered.

Therefore, I will play this out looking at the move from 1.4309 as origin of a wave 5 UP.

Now looking at the move from 1.4309 up to 1.4747...... I see this as a waves 123 already where wave 3 finished off at 1.4747 and price is retracing for wave 4 which approximately should end at 38.2%. which incidentally is at 1.4594.... How about that? anyway... we will soon know if this EURUSD move will follow a classic textbook scenario.

If it does, then EURUSD should now be on its way up to develop wave 5 of Wave equivalent to wave 5535 n my chart. before we see a retracement again.

This means thatthe move up which will probably take us above 150 is just the end of wave 5 of one of the many subdivisions of the final wave 5 of EURUSD going up.

This Bullish scenario started from 0.8225 in October 2000 which is estimated to reach 1.7060 by year 2010.. Yes that tough and Bullish for this Pair

Happy and Profitable Trading Everyone.

EG
  • #1,389
  • Jan 1, 2008 3:00pm Jan 1, 2008 3:00pm
Quoting money
. I would like to see drop down to around 1,4580- 1,4620. Grega
I'll let it drop a little lower before entering at least 50% of impulse up, and preferably 62% before entry using origin of rally as my stop loss.....IF I miss the bottom, no big deal, I can go to a shorter time frame (1hour) and trade off wave 3's wave 1 and 2...if I catch the bottom, I will do the same and add on at that point.......let the trades come to you, if they don't make it to that point, price patterns will tell you and you can enter after the bottom forms....nothing worse than trying to catch a falling knife and getting run over, the objective is no losing trades, and trade just the absolute best parts of the wave, the ones that get you in profit fast and drawndowns are minimal in price and time.....
  • #1,390
  • Jan 1, 2008 3:07pm Jan 1, 2008 3:07pm
Quoting adji04
bro, how about predict eur/usd with elliot for today (daily,horly,4H) because i have position with this currency..
what's sugest for this curr..buy again or stand aside??
and where's another site to predict eur/usd with elliotwave..?
last..which best tools to combine with elliot..
thenkyou...
Fibonacci math....382, .618, 1.00, 1.618, 2.618, and 4.236
Chaos awesome oscillator...retracement waves are confirmed with this indicator and wave 3's will show as the largest peaks.....wave 5's will have divergence...most retracements will cross the 0 line....other than that, learn the rules and guidelines of the EW and trust them........
  • #1,391
  • Jan 1, 2008 3:18pm Jan 1, 2008 3:18pm
Exited @ +15 around 1.4613. Price ahs gone up till 1.4615 as I type. Could still go up to 1.4638 to finish a subwave 4 up on the 15min chart before it plunges again to possibly 1.4529


EG

whew now it is at 1.4623.... hhhhhmmmmmmmm tsk tsk tsk....
  • #1,392
  • Jan 1, 2008 3:55pm Jan 1, 2008 3:55pm
Here are my charts

EG
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  • #1,393
  • Jan 1, 2008 5:08pm Jan 1, 2008 5:08pm
I most likely need to correct myself and my chart on my EURUSD Analysis.

I realized that I placed wave 2 to be a zigzag and wave 4 to be a Zigzag also which normally should not be the case.

Checking wave 2 again, I think it cannot be a Zigzag but a Sideways expanding corrective wave. I cannot find a reference classifying this pattern so I will classify it as Complex. This will allow me to pursue the idea that wave 4 will be a Zigzag wave.

Therefore if wave 4 is considered as a Zigzag wave, the move down from 1.4747 to 1.4581 may initially be thought of by me as a Zigzag. However when we look at the Potential relationship between what is considered as Wave C and Wave A, we will note that wave "C" is about 300% of wave "A", which I think is not within the Guideline of EW Principle.

So I will much rather consider that as a wave 1 and a wave 3, where now we see wave 3 finished and wave 4 developing to most likely reach 1.4638. Then expecting wave 5 to develop as it goes down again more like a w5=w1 to give more room for the actual Zigzag Big wave 4 @ 1.4563.

Once this Leg A ( 5 wave structure ) is finished, we now refer to the structure of A to lead us to expect what wave B possibly can be. In this case, since wave A is a 5 wave structure, then Wave B is expected to be a FLAT or A Triangle. a FLAT has a 335 structure while a Triangle has a 33333 structure.

Then we will see this pair going down again and lower than the previous low of ( which probably would be around 1.4563 ).

Okay, if I go on with this rambling, and make a sketchy forecast of the potential route of EURUSD using the Guidelines, then here goes....

Leg A finishes at 1.4563 then goes up by 50% ( @ 1.4655 ) developing a FLAT or a Triangle wave B then Falls again to finish wave C as C=100% of A (@ 1.4471) or 161.8% of A (@ 1.4357 ).

Now that is how I see it with my EW Count for EURUSD.


Now to go to the Technical side, to me this wave count fits better now as 4 hour stochastics is just crossing down Level 80. That to me means that Wave 4 is far from over. The Zigzag concept will most likely provide that time to allow it to get oversold and crossback Upwards of the Level 20. Thus the beginning of the actual Wave 5 UP.

I would most likely be setting my Short trade @ 1.4655 now. That is if I see
Price stop at around 1.4563. Better to trade the Wave C down.

EG
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  • #1,394
  • Jan 1, 2008 5:35pm Jan 1, 2008 5:35pm
Quoting money
Hello adji04. Here you can see my Elliott counting on eur-usd. i think that we should see some retricement in this wave 2 in3 waves. I will wait for this retricement, to look for new positions to go long. I would like to see drop down to around 1,4580- 1,4620. i hope that this helps you a little. You can also check our analyses here. But i did not updated them for today. nice trading, Grega
===

thanks, nice support for me.now i still waiting to see new direction..
  • #1,395
  • Jan 1, 2008 5:39pm Jan 1, 2008 5:39pm
Quoting el grande
I most likely need to correct myself and my chart on my EURUSD Analysis.

I realized that I placed wave 2 to be a zigzag and wave 4 to be a Zigzag also which normally should not be the case.

Checking wave 2 again, I think it cannot be a Zigzag but a Sideways expanding corrective wave. I cannot find a reference classifying this pattern so I will classify it as Complex. This will allow me to pursue the idea that wave 4 will be a Zigzag wave.

Therefore if wave 4 is considered as a Zigzag wave, the move down from 1.4747 to 1.4581 may initially be thought of by me as a Zigzag. However when we look at the Potential relationship between what is considered as Wave C and Wave A, we will note that wave "C" is about 300% of wave "A", which I think is not within the Guideline of EW Principle.

So I will much rather consider that as a wave 1 and a wave 3, where now we see wave 3 finished and wave 4 developing to most likely reach 1.4638. Then expecting wave 5 to develop as it goes down again more like a w5=w1 to give more room for the actual Zigzag Big wave 4 @ 1.4563.

Once this Leg A ( 5 wave structure ) is finished, we now refer to the structure of A to lead us to expect what wave B possibly can be. In this case, since wave A is a 5 wave structure, then Wave B is expected to be a FLAT or A Triangle. a FLAT has a 335 structure while a Triangle has a 33333 structure.

Then we will see this pair going down again and lower than the previous low of ( which probably would be around 1.4563 ).

Okay, if I go on with this rambling, and make a sketchy forecast of the potential route of EURUSD using the Guidelines, then here goes....

Leg A finishes at 1.4563 then goes up by 50% ( @ 1.4655 ) developing a FLAT or a Triangle wave B then Falls again to finish wave C as C=100% of A (@ 1.4471) or 161.8% of A (@ 1.4357 ).

Now that is how I see it with my EW Count for EURUSD.


Now to go to the Technical side, to me this wave count fits better now as 4 hour stochastics is just crossing down Level 80. That to me means that Wave 4 is far from over. The Zigzag concept will most likely provide that time to allow it to get oversold and crossback Upwards of the Level 20. Thus the beginning of the actual Wave 5 UP.

I would most likely be setting my Short trade @ 1.4655 now. That is if I see
Price stop at around 1.4563. Better to trade the Wave C down.

EG
===

thanks..el grante...with your's opinion and sugestion i will waiting stiil make new direction/comfirmation...
  • #1,396
  • Jan 1, 2008 5:45pm Jan 1, 2008 5:45pm
Here is a much simpler Alternative Count

Note that this is on the 1 hour Chart.

EG
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  • #1,397
  • Jan 1, 2008 7:18pm Jan 1, 2008 7:18pm
My EW Count for USDJPY.

EG
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  • #1,398
  • Jan 1, 2008 9:56pm Jan 1, 2008 9:56pm
Price has gone down then up then down for this pair since I exited for 15pip profit.

Right now it has climbed higher from where I exited for 15 pips to an additional 46 pips. What a big difference.

If I were to maintain my wave count, this could still be possible as wave 4 up for Leg A of this trend down could go as high as 1.4701 which is the end of wave 1 down and that would be approximately 77% retrace of wave 3.

In some references, they say that if wave 4 exceeds 61.8% of wave 3, then chances of a failed or truncated wave 5 is higher.

So this is what I will watch out for now.

I actually entered a short trade about an hour back for a shortrade eyeing 1.4638 as potential end of the wave 4 ( obviously I was wrong ).

I have entered a much smaller trade than the long trade I had earlier. and risking 40% of what I profitted earlier.

It is difficult for me to really see how the market is moving because I use MT4 for my Chart analysis while my broker is not on MT4. Besides, my broker is already open since 5am Asian time while my MT4 platforms are still not moving.

EG
  • #1,399
  • Jan 2, 2008 2:07am Jan 2, 2008 2:07am
ppl how do you count all this waves. By head or u use software or some indicators?
  • #1,400
  • Jan 2, 2008 3:23am Jan 2, 2008 3:23am
Head and Mathamatical measurement according to fibonacci......there is no such thing as reliable EW software........
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