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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #5,461
  • Dec 30, 2007 9:27am Dec 30, 2007 9:27am
ChesterB,

Thanks for the info - I appreciate it.
  • #5,462
  • Dec 30, 2007 10:54am Dec 30, 2007 10:54am
Quoting Warren Forex
I am a fundamental FX trader and for the last six months my focus has been on USD/JPY

For many fundamental reasons with the main one in my opinion being the substantial unwinding of the Trillion Dollar Plus YEN carry trade because of the meltdown in housing in the USA, the incredible losses still to be suffered by financial entities including the giants like JP Morgan and others.

I can see the USD/JPY at 100 or less by the end of 2008

The markets will be more than unstable in 2008 and the YEN will be the biggest gainer of all. Of course you need to decide that for yourself since it is your money at risk.

For me the key is deciding on the KEY entry and exit points. On a short term basis the trend can change in minutes depending on the NEW data that comes out. For example the New Home Sales released on Friday last.

Next Friday is NFP and if it is as bad as 4Cast suggests under 50,000 or so, it will make the PERCEPTION 100% that the FED will CUT in January 2008.

I will await some comments from fellow posters and FX traders.

I wish everyone here a Happy New Year and GREAT FX trading for all in 2008.

Amen to that.

I'm surprised so many technical traders try to fight the fundamental truths behind where one currency will move in respect to another. Ask any technical analyst this question..."Does the indicator draw the price or does the price draw the indicator?" In other words, the price must occur first. No indicator will force a price anywhere, but price will force ALL indicators to a certain level. This is not a "Chicken or Egg" debate. Price always comes first. I'm not saying technical analysis is completely useless. Just use fundamental analysis to form an opinion on the long-term movement, then use technical indicators (primarily overbought/oversold indicators) to time your entry and exit for a little more return. In my opinion, anyone using technical analysis to trade USD/JPY long (against the fundamental analysis quoted above) is gambling. IMHO. Best of luck in '08.
  • #5,463
  • Dec 30, 2007 11:15am Dec 30, 2007 11:15am
Quoting Trader KGB
They can't, USDJPY is the underlying of every yen cross. It has the highest volume of any yen pair.

I was also recently long CADJPY for most of its rise from 109 - 116. At the time, both USDJPY and USDCAD were lining up perfectly. That's the best time to be in any cross, when both of the underlying majors are working together in the same direction. Now, USDJPY is in disarray, while USDCAD is still in a healthy downtrend. At this time, I'm favoring USDCAD short alone, rather than CADJPY long, due to the underlying weakness of USDJPY.
come on, how you dare to say this, when even ABN Amro said what you rejected.

you can use a calculator and compare.
u/j to 6J (yen index) and you will see a crude reality.

just followed how last week yen was wakening and usd/jpy was weakening as well.

the new clock for yen pairs in my opinion is EJ. usd is losing it status as indicator currency. last week eu new uptrend is a shame for usd.
and i still dont bellieve this is cause low liquidity market, its just news from usa. ugly.
  • #5,464
  • Dec 30, 2007 11:22am Dec 30, 2007 11:22am
Quoting Warren Forex
I am a fundamental FX trader and for the last six months my focus has been on USD/JPY

For many fundamental reasons with the main one in my opinion being the substantial unwinding of the Trillion Dollar Plus YEN carry trade because of the meltdown in housing in the USA, the incredible losses still to be suffered by financial entities including the giants like JP Morgan and others.

I can see the USD/JPY at 100 or less by the end of 2008

The markets will be more than unstable in 2008 and the YEN will be the biggest gainer of all. Of course you need to decide that for yourself since it is your money at risk.

For me the key is deciding on the KEY entry and exit points. On a short term basis the trend can change in minutes depending on the NEW data that comes out. For example the New Home Sales released on Friday last.

Next Friday is NFP and if it is as bad as 4Cast suggests under 50,000 or so, it will make the PERCEPTION 100% that the FED will CUT in January 2008.

I will await some comments from fellow posters and FX traders.

I wish everyone here a Happy New Year and GREAT FX trading for all in 2008.
So from what i am understanding now, is if your hypothesis is correct about the USD depreciating, then their will be a more than likely chance that the EUR/USD will hit 1.5000 which might be a critical correlation to the USD/JPY pair. If EUR/USD reaches 1.5000 their may be a huge amount of people shorting this pair, thus increasing the demand of the USD dollar (selling of the EURO, buying of the USD) , which may lead to the appreciation of the USD for a little while. Please correct me if I am wrong about this theory.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,465
  • Dec 30, 2007 1:15pm Dec 30, 2007 1:15pm
Quoting Warren Forex
Next Friday is NFP and if it is as bad as 4Cast suggests under 50,000 or so, it will make the PERCEPTION 100% that the FED will CUT in January 2008.
fwiw, the odds of the January cut already jumped to 94% on Friday after the housing numbers came out.
  • #5,466
  • Dec 30, 2007 3:07pm Dec 30, 2007 3:07pm
Which fundamentals matter most here? Is all fundamental data really available in a timely manner to be useful by the retail investor? If there is one pair that historically defies fundamentals it the USDJPY. The Japanese economy fuels a lot of of investment in Asia, and as a portal to those markets it holds a place of relevance. Maybe the real fate of the Yen lies in the valuation of the Yuan.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yen carry trade go nuts in 2008 all pairs reaching new highs with USD posting the least impressive gains against the Yen.
  • #5,467
  • Dec 30, 2007 3:27pm Dec 30, 2007 3:27pm
Quoting ChesterB
Thanks for your insights Warren. Us chart guys need to hear the perspective of the fundamentalists! Do you see the DOW getting weak along side USD/JPY?

Only based on common sense and the fact that the FED is running out of tricks in their bag, profits will be reduced in 2008. We have inflation aplenty caused by Bennake and his helicopters. I can only see the FED cutting rates in 2008 which weakens the US Dollar. Look at Gold approaching a all time high over $850.00 US

Oil continues to rise. The US consumer is now maxing out their credit cards. The spending party of the last 5 years is coming to a end. This next data release if NOT MANIPULATED on Friday as relates to NFP could really start the moving down of the Dow if the number is as weak as suggested under 50,000

The only caution is that there is a tremendous flow of capital and as the US Dollar heads towards 70 VS 80 and Inflation, Stagflation rears it's ugly head the Dow could benefit short term by funds flowing back.

In general though I think strongly that we could see at least a 10 % correction in the Dow in early 2008. Ongoing events then will determine if we have a further fall. Nothing goes straight up or down except if the losses in the first quarter of 2008 are massive as relates to the financial houses including JP Morgan and the others. We also have a terrible TRUST problem between the Banks as the Libor is showing. Credit CONTRACTION is very bad for business and could make things much worse.

Until the market has a handle on if the losses to come are 250 Billion or 1000 Billion (One Trillion) the jury is still out on how bad it is.

Those are some of my researched thoughts and others as well whom we all read from time to time. I am a contrarian and a realist.

The numbers do not lie unless the FED gives it to you as in Birth Death Numbers around NFP day. However their ability to ontinue the shell game is being diminished by the day and the FACT that Gold is heading OVER $1000 sometime in 2008 as the US Dollar continues to tank and everyone continues to reduce their US Dollar holdings to avoid additional losses.

Sad to say in my not so humble opinion :-) Goldilocks is Dying as Gold is Rising !!!
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  • #5,468
  • Dec 30, 2007 3:40pm Dec 30, 2007 3:40pm
why dont you follow gold schanz advise and short gold through 2008 .

those brokers are pigs, dont you remember they said the best trade of the year was shorting real state stocks? and they made good profits?

while they were encouraging some months ago people to buy it???
keep bellieving in goldman schanz while they trade against you.
  • #5,469
  • Dec 30, 2007 3:48pm Dec 30, 2007 3:48pm
Quoting joey122mac
Can anyone post Fib patterns of the USD/JPY and EXPLAIN how they intrept them?

As i ve said in the past - I see JPY strength and have positioned myself accordingly - However I ve yet to see the chart say that to me

Ideas?
It changes over time. During the summer they were directly related...it was a goldmine.

Looking over import export data; I think since everyone and their uncle is crying weak dollar it's just has to be near a bottom...heheh
  • #5,470
  • Jan 1, 2008 12:27pm Jan 1, 2008 12:27pm
I believe the yen is the best way to capitalize on upcoming (I think) $ weakness. Euro has REALLY strong resistance at 1.4750 then 1.5.
USD/JPY has an easy ride down to the 107 area and I'm hopping on.
  • #5,471
  • Jan 1, 2008 12:52pm Jan 1, 2008 12:52pm
I am positive that the pair will go down fast... we might see mid 112s perhaps but in the long term 109 and even further down is a big possibility. I am not expecting a major bull run for now... Bears will hunt down this pair.
  • #5,472
  • Jan 2, 2008 11:22am Jan 2, 2008 11:22am
Quoting Alfista
I am positive that the pair will go down fast... we might see mid 112s perhaps but in the long term 109 and even further down is a big possibility. I am not expecting a major bull run for now... Bears will hunt down this pair.
Looks like your projections are correct so far, it made a huge drop down and currently in the sub 109s. I believe 108 will be the turning point for this pair, especially since it was a former critical support level.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,473
  • Jan 2, 2008 11:23am Jan 2, 2008 11:23am
Quoting chady250
Looks like your projections are correct so far, it made a huge drop down and currently in the sub 109s. I believe 108 will be the turning point for this pair, especially since it was a former critical support level.
We're in a long term downtrend Chady. It may bounce there, but it will probably end up making lower lows.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #5,474
  • Jan 2, 2008 11:39am Jan 2, 2008 11:39am
Quoting mike w
We're in a long term downtrend Chady. It may bounce there, but it will probably end up making lower lows.
Unbelievable action in carry trade.

Grats to shorts.
  • #5,475
  • Jan 2, 2008 2:35pm Jan 2, 2008 2:35pm
Quoting chady250
Looks like your projections are correct so far, it made a huge drop down and currently in the sub 109s. I believe 108 will be the turning point for this pair, especially since it was a former critical support level.
thanx for paying attention to my post. That fall was pretty obvious. we saw lower 109.00 area. So far I got out of my short at 109.50 region. It is extremely oversold, I am guessing for a retrace towards 110.50 but I am not taking any long position at all since the pair is still at a downtrend level. Best is to wait for a better short entry if it happens. So far I am staying away from usdjpy in any direction.
  • #5,476
  • Jan 2, 2008 5:03pm Jan 2, 2008 5:03pm
first trade of the year, short USDJPY from 111.45. made 170 pips today. good way to start the year
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #5,477
  • Jan 2, 2008 11:39pm Jan 2, 2008 11:39pm
Quoting Alfista
thanx for paying attention to my post. That fall was pretty obvious. we saw lower 109.00 area. So far I got out of my short at 109.50 region. It is extremely oversold, I am guessing for a retrace towards 110.50 but I am not taking any long position at all since the pair is still at a downtrend level. Best is to wait for a better short entry if it happens. So far I am staying away from usdjpy in any direction.
I see what you are trying to say. That sounds like a good plan, wait for the retrace and then re enter. I plan on sticking it out with the short position until it hits either 108(PT) or 111.25 (SL). I was able to jump into this short position earlier when it was trading at 113, so its a win win situation right now.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,478
  • Jan 3, 2008 3:50am Jan 3, 2008 3:50am
This pair will fall down more..
towards 108.30
  • #5,479
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:47pm Jan 3, 2008 4:47pm
What do you make of this surge upward? I'm suspecting a huge drop may be imminent - at the start of the Japanese session...
  • #5,480
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:58pm Jan 3, 2008 4:58pm
Daily Pin Bar goin' on here. Looks hard to long though. I will be curious to see what happens with the Asia and London sessions.
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