GbpUsd Statistical Probability With Price Action

Daily RM with statistical probabilities for the RM between 70 and 200 pips.

Currently it has retraced to the 50 fib level on the daily since it dropped 121 pips when it hit the weekly high of 2.0023.

Another look at the daily retracements for the past two years.

The blue line is the RM range of motion based on each weeks high and low for all the weeks of the year. The pink line is the WAR weekly average range from Jan.1 2007 to date. The purple line is the WAR starting July 8 2007. The WAR changes from week to week because it is the cumulative yearly average of all the previous weeks to date. The WAR is based on adding the total number of pips a currency has range for the previous weeks to date dividing it by the number of weeks. For instance the first of the year in 2007 the RM for week 1 was 487 week 2 was 346 week 3 was 206. Add those three weeks together 487+346+206 you have a total of 1039. Then divide the 1039 by 3 weeks you have a WAR of 346 for the first three weeks of the year. Week 4 had a RM of 355 adding it to the total of the previous three weeks then dividing the total by 4 you have a WAR of 349 for the first 4 weeks of the year. Through the course of the year until July, the WAR for the year continued to drop then gradually started increasing week to week based on weekly RM. That’s why the WAR is shown for the whole year and for the time beginning in July. As you can tell the RM beginning in July increased for the GbpUsd as well as other currencies. It will be interesting to see how the RM continues throughout 2008.

Updated information begins with post 99.

WAR for the GbpUsd

The GbpUsd has retraced to the 61.8 daily fib level for the 172nd time in 258 trading days for a 66.7% retracement probability. On Friday after the the days high and low was established it hit the 50 fib and now has continued to the 61.8 fib level . On Friday it actually came with in 12 pips of the 61.8 daily fib so it was not considered a hit at that time





All daily fibs are counted when the currency retraces after the days high and low are established. These fib levels have been given a 7 pip tolerance, meaning if it comes within 7 pips of a certain fib level it is considered a hit. Also these fib levels are counted if it retraces the same day of the high and low being established or the next trading day of the previous days high and low.

Updated information begin with post 99.

On the weekly 4hr note the green horizontal lines for past S/R levels. The 2007 WAR for gbpusd 299. The first weeks of trading the past two years have had a wide range of motion. It is trading at 9978 which is a past S/R level on the 4hr.

A look at S/R from the daily perspective.



Updated information begins with post 99.
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From pivot 1 on Friday it had retraced to within 10 pips of 38 fib see yellow fib lines and from Pivot 2 which is today's low pivot it retraced to the 50 fib see green fib lines. Its finding resistance at an 00 number and exsisting home sales coming out in about an hour.
Pivot 1 did not show up on the chart it is at 9905



Updated information begins with post 99.
3664

See daily fib retracement probabilities on post 102. Posts 99 and 100 show DAR chart and past day RM.


Updated information begins with post 99.
3664