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  • #421
  • Dec 28, 2007 2:10am Dec 28, 2007 2:10am
Quoting Eklavya
Interesting prespective Tiki. If Gold does come down, it should have a negative effect on AUD pairs. However a pin bar by itself does not indicate that the trend is going to reverse. We should wait for a confirmation bar to conclude that pin bar is indeed a reversal signal. On the daily chart, Gold seems to be range bound approaching resistance level at 850. If Gold does breakdown, and AUD/JPY also fails to break above the neckline, then it could be a downward journey.

Mike..Thoughts?? Should one wait for Gold to confirm its direction before taking a position in AUD/JPY or should one take a position in the pair if it breaks above the neckline?
As for your Aud/Jpy thoughts, I don't plan to open any trades on this pair. It's too choppy for my liking. I'd rather stick to all of the other opportunities that arise.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #422
  • Dec 28, 2007 2:20am Dec 28, 2007 2:20am
I'm posting my long term charts and thoughts for each chart. It's all fairly simple. I think each will continue it's previous trend and reach previous lows or highs.

First, we have the usd/cad. I had posted this a while ago and still have those trades in on it. I think it will reach .9000 again. This was the previous low and this move up was just the retracement before continuing downwards.

Next up is the Aussie. You can see that it reverted away from the support area and back upwards. With that, the uptrend is still intact. I think it will reach previous highs. This is a great trade because you collect interest as well, which is damn nice compared to paying it.

Now, we have the Usd/Jpy which reverted away from resistance and is now continuing it's longterm downtrend. I look to see the previous lows and lower for this pair.

Usd/Chf is up next and I am looking to see 1.08 at least on it again.

Best of luck trading everyone and have a great day.
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I dream, therefore I become.
  • #423
  • Dec 28, 2007 12:00pm Dec 28, 2007 12:00pm
Hi Mike,

I have some questions regarding fibonacci levels that I and not able to figure out myself. I was thinking your insights will be of tremendous help. Would you rather I ask them on this thread or seperately pm you.
Please let me know.

Regards!
Eklavya
  • #424
  • Dec 28, 2007 2:13pm Dec 28, 2007 2:13pm
Quoting Eklavya
Hi Mike,

I have some questions regarding fibonacci levels that I and not able to figure out myself. I was thinking your insights will be of tremendous help. Would you rather I ask them on this thread or seperately pm you.
Please let me know.

Regards!
Eklavya
Whatever's good for you. Ask on the thread so that others can learn too, if you don't mind.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #425
  • Dec 28, 2007 2:16pm Dec 28, 2007 2:16pm
I am going to close out the Aud/Usd position for a tiny profit and reopen if and when it breaks through resistance on the daily charts. If not, I plan on shorting. We're at a key level at the moment and this will decide which way we go for around 300 pips.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #426
  • Dec 28, 2007 2:17pm Dec 28, 2007 2:17pm
Quoting mike w
Whatever's good for you. Ask on the thread so that others can learn too, if you don't mind.
Thank You Mike!!

How should one approach drawing Fibs :-

1. Weekly High to Weekly Low?
2. Most recent swing high to most recent swing low?
3. Any other?

What should be the direction of the line is there is no clear trend present and the market is ranging?

what should be the fib extensions used? Should they be used on both the high and the low end of the fib retracement?
  • #427
  • Dec 28, 2007 2:23pm Dec 28, 2007 2:23pm
Quoting Eklavya
Thank You Mike!!

How should one approach drawing Fibs :-

1. Weekly High to Weekly Low?
2. Most recent swing high to most recent swing low?
3. Any other?

What should be the direction of the line is there is no clear trend present and the market is ranging?

what should be the fib extensions used? Should they be used on both the high and the low end of the fib retracement?
Hey Eklavya, and thanks for the questions. As for drawing fibs, it depends on what timeframe you are on. Swing high and low fibs show the overall picture, while putting fibs on the immediate movements creates a pinpoint entry or exit area.

I don't really use fib extensions however. The methodology that I am using basically has fibs drawn into it and so I don't really have to draw them out that much, although the knowledge to do so will give you great profit once used correctly.

It depends on your style of trading as well. If you are a longer term trader, fibs based on 1 hour charts won't help you much as that is just noise anyways for your positions. If your a short term trader, then fibs drawn on a one hour chart will pose great impact on your analysis.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #428
  • Dec 28, 2007 2:28pm Dec 28, 2007 2:28pm
Quoting mike w
Hey Eklavya, and thanks for the questions. As for drawing fibs, it depends on what timeframe you are on. Swing high and low fibs show the overall picture, while putting fibs on the immediate movements creates a pinpoint entry or exit area.

I don't really use fib extensions however. The methodoly that I am using basically has fibs drawn into it and so I don't really have to draw them out that much, although the knowledge to do so will give you great profit once used correctly.

It depends on your style of trading as well. If you are a longer term trader, fibs based on 1 hour charts won't help you much as that is just noise anyways for your positions. If your a short term trader, then fibs drawn on a one hour chart will pose great impact on your analysis.
Thank You Mike..I am still trying to form my trading profile. I am leaning towards, drawing Fibs and identifyng setups on daily charts and entering/exiting on 4hr/1hr charts based on congestion/Fib levels/candle patterns.
  • #429
  • Dec 28, 2007 3:00pm Dec 28, 2007 3:00pm
Quoting Eklavya
Thank You Mike..I am still trying to form my trading profile. I am leaning towards, drawing Fibs and identifyng setups on daily charts and entering/exiting on 4hr/1hr charts based on congestion/Fib levels/candle patterns.
That's fantastic. Most newcomers go in search of a system and don't learn the basics that most systems depend upon such as fibs, trends, and S/R levels. You off to a good start!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #430
  • Dec 28, 2007 9:08pm Dec 28, 2007 9:08pm
I think you were saying down for this pair... and I was playing around with charts tonight and came across this... something more for you to think about this weekend... maybe it means nothing...
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  • #431
  • Dec 29, 2007 11:21am Dec 29, 2007 11:21am
Quoting mike w
That's fantastic. Most newcomers go in search of a system and don't learn the basics that most systems depend upon such as fibs, trends, and S/R levels. You off to a good start!

hey mike just checkin in to your thread to say hello and happy new year.... looks like i am not the only one starting to see TL patters and using s/r levels to trade (see last chart) ... they shoud teach us newbies the basics before they let us open a demo acccount! lol anyway still learning from you and just wanted to tahnsk you again... my next mission = fibs as you suggested.... looking around ff as we speak.... skunnys thread about dyanmic fibs and redrwaing them as price action dictates seems facinating although i have no clue what the heck is going on with that..... and by the way great call on gpb/jpy last few days... one would've thought you had a crystal ball.....


ps if you get a chance....check this chart and the fibs and tell me what you think..... (this is from the skunny thread tool drawing fibs from weekly candles) i still dont get it how to determine if the next move would be down to -138 or stop at 0 or bounce from the lower tl back up to 21 38 50??? the red supports out from far left of screen are from monthly chart, then there is support price is siting on now.... and finally i drew a possible out come of price going down only to the zero fib and forming new support from which it may bounce up again or push even further down to -138 but i couldnt begin to predict with fibs..... anyway thanks again mike .. YOU RULE!
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  • #432
  • Dec 29, 2007 2:50pm Dec 29, 2007 2:50pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I think you were saying down for this pair... and I was playing around with charts tonight and came across this... something more for you to think about this weekend... maybe it means nothing...
That is a good look on things Tiki...I can realistically see that panning out too. With that, we may see another down day, but inevtiably back up to close above support. If we would get this type of day, that would clearly show that we are consolidating before the breakout. Then it's range mode for sure. Thanks for the thought Tiki! I'll be posting charts here in a little while of my thoughts for a few of my trades and potential trades. I'll be back in around 3 hours with them.

Don't think I forgot about you Dagoods. I just saw something in the beginner's section, the Editor's articles, on fibs. It looks like a good read to me. I'll have to start reading Skunny's thread too. I've been looking online for some good material regarding fibs and have found a small amount. I'll post that when I post my charts and reasoning for trades.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #433
  • Dec 29, 2007 2:56pm Dec 29, 2007 2:56pm
Another GBP/JPY idea... once weekly price really closes below 221... SHORT to 213....
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  • #434
  • Dec 29, 2007 3:05pm Dec 29, 2007 3:05pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Another GBP/JPY idea... once weekly price really closes below 221... SHORT to 213....
I agree. Over the longer term, I look to see the Usd/Jpy drop a LOT and that will coincide with a lower level on the gbp/jpy as well. By the time it happens, this will have been long forgotten by most but we could be rich men jsut because of this trade. Check out Gene22's Lazy Analysis thread and see his views on the Usd/Jpy and the Gbp/Jpy. My thoughts coincide with his based on the weekly and monthly charts. Although, I'm a little more coservative on where price will ultimately head to.

A close below 221 and I am in the same boat longer term. A close below 219 will be the real indicator for me to see that price is going to bomb, but 221 will lead, in my opinion, to at least 219 and then we'll see from there.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #435
  • Dec 29, 2007 4:11pm Dec 29, 2007 4:11pm
By the time we get to 219... we will be well between the 2 PPZs and nothing stopping price until 213...

Quoting mike w
I agree. Over the longer term, I look to see the Usd/Jpy drop a LOT and that will coincide with a lower level on the gbp/jpy as well. By the time it happens, this will have been long forgotten by most but we could be rich men jsut because of this trade. Check out Gene22's Lazy Analysis thread and see his views on the Usd/Jpy and the Gbp/Jpy. My thoughts coincide with his based on the weekly and monthly charts. Although, I'm a little more coservative on where price will ultimately head to.

A close below 221 and I am in the same boat longer term. A close below 219 will be the real indicator for me to see that price is going to bomb, but 221 will lead, in my opinion, to at least 219 and then we'll see from there.
  • #436
  • Dec 29, 2007 4:15pm Dec 29, 2007 4:15pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
By the time we get to 219... we will be well between the 2 PPZs and nothing stopping price until 213...
I agree and that's why I like it. By then, the buyers will have gotten out and the sellers will keep stacking in. Momentum will pick up and then it will be a very profitable trade with little to no risk in the longer term.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #437
  • Dec 29, 2007 4:41pm Dec 29, 2007 4:41pm
Quoting mike w
That is a good look on things Tiki...I can realistically see that panning out too. With that, we may see another down day, but inevtiably back up to close above support. If we would get this type of day, that would clearly show that we are consolidating before the breakout. Then it's range mode for sure. Thanks for the thought Tiki! I'll be posting charts here in a little while of my thoughts for a few of my trades and potential trades. I'll be back in around 3 hours with them.

Don't think I forgot about you Dagoods. I just saw something in the beginner's section, the Editor's articles, on fibs. It looks like a good read to me. I'll have to start reading Skunny's thread too. I've been looking online for some good material regarding fibs and have found a small amount. I'll post that when I post my charts and reasoning for trades.

thanks mike! learning learning learning.....as usual.... i love your charts am especially interested this year in entering a carry trade.... one of my goals would be to enter a carry this year with a mall position and keep the trade all year! maybe you could help me do just that with the aud/gdp you mentioned... that would be awesome! i am also looking to learn how to scalp effectively and am looking at different systems ( i know i know indicators dont work...but.... from what i am reading multiple indciators ON MULTIPLE TIMEFRAMES) with proper MM can yield great results) so these are my goals this year...... looking at some of the 5 star sytems on ff to hone in what might work for me.... looking at 4 hour macd, steinitz, Has, srdc, fozzy, MTTF (stochs and any other multiple time frames) .... LOL i think i have lots of work to do! ROFL.... i need to get a life! anyway...looking forward to this year!
  • #438
  • Dec 29, 2007 11:09pm Dec 29, 2007 11:09pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1147866037

This is Bill Poulo's explanation and definition of fib levels. It's an excellent read for those of you that are trying to learn more on the subject.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #439
  • Dec 29, 2007 11:45pm Dec 29, 2007 11:45pm
Quoting dagoods
thanks mike! learning learning learning.....as usual.... i love your charts am especially interested this year in entering a carry trade.... one of my goals would be to enter a carry this year with a mall position and keep the trade all year! maybe you could help me do just that with the aud/gdp you mentioned... that would be awesome! i am also looking to learn how to scalp effectively and am looking at different systems ( i know i know indicators dont work...but.... from what i am reading multiple indciators ON MULTIPLE TIMEFRAMES) with proper MM can yield great results) so these are my goals this year...... looking at some of the 5 star sytems on ff to hone in what might work for me.... looking at 4 hour macd, steinitz, Has, srdc, fozzy, MTTF (stochs and any other multiple time frames) .... LOL i think i have lots of work to do! ROFL.... i need to get a life! anyway...looking forward to this year!
Hey Dagoods, I hope you can achieve your goals; that will be fantastic and I would love to help you along the way! On another note, I never said indicators don't work. People that use them normally don't understand them entirely and so don't use them in the proper manner- that's when they cease to have effect. For the love of god.....DO NOT GET INDICATORITIS. Your going to want to plot a billion indicators on a chart, when in reality, you'd be better off learning the basics of true technical analysis- price action, support and resistance levels, and fibs on higher timeframes. That advice will save you a lot of pain. Believe me on that and trust me, I have been there. I think you would be better off learning those basics thoroughly before trying to learn a system to compliment the basics. Once that is done, yes, a system or methodology will help to identify successful trades from failures.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #440
  • Dec 30, 2007 6:13pm Dec 30, 2007 6:13pm
Alritey, here we have a weekly and daily chart. According to my weekly chart, I could only guess that we will get a retracement up to 225.90 and then a drop would continue. My reasoning for this is that more often than not, the price will move to the 5 sma before continuing on its path. The last weekly candle was bearish and so I would look to see this candle as a solid bear as well- at least until 221 where there is support.

Now onto the daily chart, We closed as a bearish bar after a reversal bar that came from resistance. With that, we need a retracement due to the fact that this last bar was large and the bulls will start to buy in at this and lower prices to push back upwards to, lo and behold, at least 225.63. There will probably be a large wick on that very bar that comes through to hit 225.63 to touch 225.90. After that, I look to sell again, because as Auslanco said, I look to see a large drop from that point- to at least 221 where there is support. A break below and close below 221 and I would look to see much lower levels sooner than I thought we would. Hope that could help at all. thanks and have a great night with great trading everyone.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1199059216 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1199059216
I dream, therefore I become.
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