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  • #401
  • Dec 27, 2007 3:03pm Dec 27, 2007 3:03pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Hey there..knock knock... it's time to get up !!! Too much late partying for you !!!
I think your right on that Tiki hahaha Anyways, the gbp/jpy is closing today as a pin bar off of the resistance. I doubt we will see much more movement until the days close and so, after a small retracement upwards, I plan to add to my short positions.

Tiki, didn't you know?? I'm a psychic! That's how I knew in advance that pin bar would form!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #402
  • Dec 27, 2007 3:19pm Dec 27, 2007 3:19pm
Ok, all trades in are going well at the moment. I have trades on aud/usd, usd/cad, usd/chf, usd/jpy, and gbp/jpy. All are short except the aud/usd. Most are longer term and I believe they will reach their longer term goals. I think we were at a previous top with most and now the former downtrends will continue.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #403
  • Dec 27, 2007 3:34pm Dec 27, 2007 3:34pm
Yes, it is pinnish... but does not meet the criteria really of J16 Pin Bar... I would prefer to at least see the close a little lower then the open to be more convinced... price is stalling at the 4hour 62 ema...this could easily go the other way...

BTW.. my GBP/USD trade is doing well too.... sorry I don't have as many trades going as you... but I do want to boast about it for a sec...!!!

Ok... over and out.... and don't think I am gonna fall for that psychic stuff...!! I know you were talking about that other previous candle that just didn't pan out as a good PB !!! But I'll let you slide on that one this time !!!

Quoting mike w
I think your right on that Tiki hahaha Anyways, the gbp/jpy is closing today as a pin bar off of the resistance. I doubt we will see much more movement until the days close and so, after a small retracement upwards, I plan to add to my short positions.

Tiki, didn't you know?? I'm a psychic! That's how I knew in advance that pin bar would form!
  • #404
  • Dec 27, 2007 3:50pm Dec 27, 2007 3:50pm
OK, and I have to point out my concern on this one too...

Now, of coarse you may be perfectly rigth about it all... I think I am simply not qualified to say much... actually I hope you are right on them all... I wish you all the pips in the world... as long as you don't take mine...

And while I do see the distinct possibilty of a monthly Pin Bar here... but notice also that last months bar is a Bearish Outside Bar... always something to make it not perfect... !!! Just some more food for thought for you... man all this time off from real work is so boring... nothing to do but harrang you...
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  • #405
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:37pm Dec 27, 2007 5:37pm
Hi Mike,

I am new to trading and would like some comments on my analysis of charts. For some reason always manage to get it wrong in historical analysis..

Appreciate if you or anyone on this thread could take some time to comment on my analysis or provide me with a different perspective.

To start with I think AUD/JPY is poised to go up. The weekly trendline is clearly up, having been tested a couple time in the last month or so.
On the daily charts we see a head and shoulders forming . The price tried to pierce through the neckline on 12th december and retraced back to the right shoulder and is now again hovering around the neckline.
To see a clearer picture, we go to the 4 hr chart and see that the price tried to close below the neckline several times but was consistently pushed back up. Right now it is below the neckline. But if the price closes convincingly above the neckline and closes above the high formed yesterday, it might be a valid signal to enter long with SL at the right neckline.
  • #406
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:40pm Dec 27, 2007 5:40pm
Hi Mike,

I am new to trading and would like some comments on my analysis of charts. For some reason always manage to get it wrong in historical analysis..

Appreciate if you or anyone on this thread could take some time to comment on my analysis or provide me with a different perspective.

To start with I think AUD/JPY is poised to go up. The weekly trendline is clearly up, having been tested a couple time in the last month or so.
On the daily charts we see a head and shoulders forming . The price tried to pierce through the neckline on 12th december and retraced back to the right shoulder and is now again hovering around the neckline.
To see a clearer picture, we go to the 4 hr chart and see that the price tried to close below the neckline several times but was consistently pushed back up. Right now it is below the neckline. But if the price closes convincingly above the neckline and closes above the high formed yesterday, it might be a valid signal to enter long with SL at the right neckline.

Not to mention that High of yesterday also coincides with the phsycological 100 mark, break of wich might be an indicator of things to come.

PS...Have I drawn the lines correctly? Drawing them seems to subjective and the interpretation changes depending on where they are drawn.
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  • #407
  • Dec 27, 2007 7:24pm Dec 27, 2007 7:24pm
OK Mike... I have another question for you... I happened to be looking at gold charts a bit ago... and I see very likely a monthly Pin Bar on Gold... I could not copy the chart but here is the link... http://futures.tradingcharts.com/cha...t&xhide_news=t

Hopefully it works...

So question is, and I am not trying to put you on the spot... I am just throwing things out to you... but if that monthly PB works, and gold prices come down, and if I am remembering correctly, AUD is tied a lot things like gold... would that not make the AUD weaker, and AUD/USD might come down rather than go up ???

OK OK... I'll go mess around in someone else's journal for a while... !!! Damn boring around here today.... come on Tiki... find a life..........
  • #408
  • Dec 27, 2007 7:36pm Dec 27, 2007 7:36pm
Interesting prespective Tiki. If Gold does come down, it should have a negative effect on AUD pairs. However a pin bar by itself does not indicate that the trend is going to reverse. We should wait for a confirmation bar to conclude that pin bar is indeed a reversal signal. On the daily chart, Gold seems to be range bound approaching resistance level at 850. If Gold does breakdown, and AUD/JPY also fails to break above the neckline, then it could be a downward journey.

Mike..Thoughts?? Should one wait for Gold to confirm its direction before taking a position in AUD/JPY or should one take a position in the pair if it breaks above the neckline?
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  • #409
  • Dec 27, 2007 7:41pm Dec 27, 2007 7:41pm
OK... but I also am not thinking of a change in trend... that is a pretty big PB there... just coming down the length of its nose would be a big dent in price... and PB like that seems to me has a pretty good chance of working out...

I don't see it as a change in trend... but perhaps the top of a swing high... and also remember that the truth is... I know very little... it was just something that occured to me in a flash as I was passing by the gold chart...

Oh... Hiiiiiii Mike !!! We were just in here talkin...

Quoting Eklavya
Interesting prespective Tiki. If Gold does come down, it should have a negative effect on AUD pairs. However a pin bar by itself does not indicate that the trend is going to reverse. We should wait for a confirmation bar to conclude that pin bar is indeed a reversal signal. On the daily chart, Gold seems to be range bound approaching resistance level at 850. If Gold does breakdown, and AUD/JPY also fails to break above the neckline, then it could be a downward journey.

Mike..Thoughts?? Should one wait for Gold to confirm its direction before taking a position in AUD/JPY or should one take a position in the pair if it breaks above the neckline?
  • #410
  • Dec 27, 2007 7:44pm Dec 27, 2007 7:44pm
I suspect he is already long...

Quoting Tiki Trader
OK... but I also am not thinking of a change in trend... that is a pretty big PB there... just coming down the length of its nose would be a big den in price... and PB like that seems to me has a pretty good chance of working out...

I don't see it as a change in trend... but perhaps the top of a swing high... and also remember that the truth is... I know very little... it was just something that occured to me in a flash as I was passing by the gold chart...

Oh... Hiiiiiii Mike !!! We were just in here talkin...
  • #411
  • Dec 27, 2007 7:51pm Dec 27, 2007 7:51pm
Weekly gold is already consolidating... getting ready for the down move ??? Almost a triangle... could mean a move up too.... but doesn't really look like a flag...
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  • #412
  • Dec 27, 2007 7:55pm Dec 27, 2007 7:55pm
Where is Mike anyway ??? He's never around when you need him... all that partying last night... starting the weekend way too early when he should be studying to get ready for the January start of school... I hope he didn't break his knee cap out playing hockey....
  • #413
  • Dec 27, 2007 9:42pm Dec 27, 2007 9:42pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Where is Mike anyway ??? He's never around when you need him... all that partying last night... starting the weekend way too early when he should be studying to get ready for the January start of school... I hope he didn't break his knee cap out playing hockey....
Hey Tiki! I'm here! haha As for the gold tied in with the Aussie. Your absolutely right on that. If tomorrow ends bearish, that would put a bearish turn on price for the weekly chart as well. That would, indeed, coincide with the gold coming down. I may have to close out the Aussie trade if and once tomorrow would end bearishly. Thanks for the heads up!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #414
  • Dec 27, 2007 9:44pm Dec 27, 2007 9:44pm
Hey Eklavya, don't think I forgot about ya! I need to get some sleep now however, but I will get back to you in the morning. Best of luck to everyone trading.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #415
  • Dec 27, 2007 9:56pm Dec 27, 2007 9:56pm
Don't close out any trades on account of me... I'm just yappin !!!!!!!!!!!

Quoting mike w
Hey Tiki! I'm here! haha As for the gold tied in with the Aussie. Your absolutely right on that. If tomorrow ends bearish, that would put a bearish turn on price for the weekly chart as well. That would, indeed, coincide with the gold coming down. I may have to close out the Aussie trade if and once tomorrow would end bearishly. Thanks for the heads up!
  • #416
  • Dec 27, 2007 10:02pm Dec 27, 2007 10:02pm
Looks like USD/JPY and GBP/JPY really are turning...
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  • #417
  • Dec 27, 2007 10:03pm Dec 27, 2007 10:03pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Don't close out any trades on account of me... I'm just yappin !!!!!!!!!!!
I haven't yet, I will only close it if it turns bearish off of weak resistance. If so, then I have a reason to look into your account of gold and the bar beforehand on the monthly entailing more downside. If it doesn't, however, then I am still long.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #418
  • Dec 27, 2007 10:07pm Dec 27, 2007 10:07pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Looks like USD/JPY and GBP/JPY really are turning...
Yes sir, they are both turning out great so far! The usd/jpy, like I said before, could go all the way to and beyond previous lows. Long term target of 105. I'll be selling on rallies all the way down.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #419
  • Dec 28, 2007 12:46am Dec 28, 2007 12:46am
Quoting mike w
Yes sir, they are both turning out great so far! The usd/jpy, like I said before, could go all the way to and beyond previous lows. Long term target of 105. I'll be selling on rallies all the way down.
Why do you say that USD/JPY might go all the way low. Is this just a hunch or there is some thought process behind it?
BTW..All JPY pairs have broken down...seems like anyone long on JPY pairs would have had their SL hit. Mine was with GBP/JPY.
Any thoughts on how the drop could have been capitalized on?
  • #420
  • Dec 28, 2007 2:08am Dec 28, 2007 2:08am
Quoting Eklavya
Why do you say that USD/JPY might go all the way low. Is this just a hunch or there is some thought process behind it?
BTW..All JPY pairs have broken down...seems like anyone long on JPY pairs would have had their SL hit. Mine was with GBP/JPY.
Any thoughts on how the drop could have been capitalized on?
Hi Eklavya, I am going by my long term analysis to come up with that as a target. As for capitalizing on the drop, all you really needed and still need to do is focus on fibonacci levels, support and resistance and sell all the way down. It's becoming a great trade over time.
I dream, therefore I become.
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