GbpUsd Statistical Probability With Price Action

A funny pin bar with the holiday. Could be the beginning of a turn to the bullish (up side).



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Broader look at the daily S&R level at the last major daily pivot.

Hi Tom,

1. Why wouldn't one be bullish now on GBP/USD or should one wait for a retracement and a confirmation before entering?
2. Is it an appropriate level to enter and does it have the right R/R levels.
3. Is the right level of SL at the lowest point of the pin bar?

Apologies if these are stupid questions but I am trying to learn and any perspective will be appreciated.

Hey goodthings.... long time no see... !! I wish my chart would have had a PB like yours... makes me feel even better that I have gone long on a Rob Booker divergence trade though !!!!!

Its come within the 7 pips tolerance of the 23.6 daily fib

Its popped into the lower end of the high probability trading area of the 38.2 and 50 fib of last weeks high and low.

Possible PA based on guestimated weekly fibs for this week.

S/R levels from a weekly perspective.

[quote=goodthings;1775283]Possible PA based on guestimated weekly fibs for this week.[/quote

GOODTHIINGS
I have closed all the positions and now i have only $108...pls inform me when i should enter a trade.

Watching for break 15 pip break above (current days 9977 high) at 9992 for 28 pips at 2020 (correction on 2020 it should be 2.0020) A little difference . Current day low is 9939 would make 2020 having a range of motion for the day of 81 pips well below the yearly of 131 pips.

At a current level of past hourly resistance.

i have been following and want to sure of 2020, if it is still sure?
Thanks for the good job.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

It needs to break into 1993. What's nice is has currently pulled back to a 61.8 fib. The range of motion is still small so 45 pips thats why for me 2020 (correct 2020 to 2.0020) is a good mark. Because when it hits 2020 it will have moved 81 pips and may be ready for another pull back. With it being Friday and the end of the year I a cautious to try to stretch the daily range of motion. Things may be quiet today. So 2020 with a daily range of motion 81 pips is a good safe trade. Has to to break though into 1993 first. Watch the bottom side of 9939. The news for the gpb was not all that good. The market could make an emotional response to it.

I have to correct previous post by saying 2020 I should have said 2.0020. Little difference.

No stupid questions its good to ask. Bullish is good. My short term day trade came at the break of the 9973 level
by 15 pips and 9992. It was nice that it pulled back to a 61.8 fib level of the high and low established at the time of the day before it broke Resistance. The 2.0020 TP was based on a quiet market. SL depends on how long you are in the trade, hourly, daily, or weekly chart. I like setting a SL about 15 pips on the other side on an S/R level to avoid a false break. TP area I normally set on this side of a S/R level of about 15 pips, or at an even number 00 or 50. AlsoI keep in mind the Daily average range probabilities as well as weekly probabilities. Depending on what day and previous range of motion. To me trading the break out with 2.0020 as a TP was a very safe trade especially with it already pulling back and the time of day it happen. Right now it is having some resistance at 2.0022.

Possible pull back around the 50 fib.

New home sales for usd coming out around 11am eastern should be neg. news for dollar. May give gbp a boost of a few pips.

Came within 14 pips of the weekly 50 fib. Up trend my be in motion now with the new home sales report being less then expected.


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DAR for GbpUsd









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Blue line shows the RM the last 40 days compared to the yearly DAR which is the pink straight line.