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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #741
  • Edited Dec 28, 2007 2:10am Dec 27, 2007 8:52pm | Edited Dec 28, 2007 2:10am
http://i13.tinypic.com/73cgayd.gif

PRICE ACTION...

Once again on the H4 the USDJPY reached the fib projections (salmon dots).

It's almost a "Skunny textbook" example over the past day and a half:

Price reversed off support (blue dots) and reached the upper .618 fib projection (salmon dots), then price reversed to first test support and then penetrate support and reach the lower .618 fib projection.

Price has surpassed the .618 fib projection as of this post. I would venture a guess it will test the previous support 112.79.

Quoting Skunny
Sbrickman, cool charts, keep up the good work. That "moley quail" is getting closer
Looks like Skunny likes my charts. Since it is his thread, I guess he has final say.
  • #742
  • Dec 27, 2007 9:02pm Dec 27, 2007 9:02pm
Quoting TraderJR
Nothing to do with ego, just a complimentary topic/subject which might be deal with more appropriately in a separate thread.
Some people prefer to be in a support role rather than lead. If anyone can start a thread, then perhaps you will start it.
  • #743
  • Edited 9:13pm Dec 27, 2007 9:07pm | Edited 9:13pm
Maybe 113.14
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fib.jpg Size: 117 KB
  • #744
  • Dec 27, 2007 9:12pm Dec 27, 2007 9:12pm
JR,

All one can hope when one runs into immature posters is that they are not just paper traders and that they will take the opposite side of some of your trades. Enjoy the ignore feature
  • #745
  • Dec 27, 2007 9:20pm Dec 27, 2007 9:20pm
Does anyone have any interest in doing realtime chart analysis?

like working on the fibs posting charts and doing group discussion? or maybe back charts from vhands so as not to encourage live trading

I, personally, love charting and FEEL it might be helpful to say throw a current chart of xyz/zyx on what ever time frame, FIB it out and go from there.. more of like an open discussion.

maybe throw in some confluence factors like pa or patterns s/r things of the like...

if everyone is agreeable, we would just pick a pair and a tf and go to town or have one person chart and comment I don;t know maybe everyone do their version...and Skunny could comment and address consolidated issues as we would be working as a semi-borg like collective. also he could direct the ship so to speak.

Or since it seems like there is a small group of folks actively working in the thread that could be the kick off group.

just riffing here.. you like the idea? grab that big, beautiful butterfly! you no likey just let it pass by.. I am sure myself, lowell, blue, sbrick , colbert(piphitman), to name a few could get some cool stuff done of course I would muck it up somehow, but whatever...

I am totally down for public ridicule and being openly nakedly wrongo!! If you aren't making mistakes you aren't learning! I spose this is good news as it appears I have never, nor will I ever stop learning

new thread? keep it on this thread? don't do it all? do it and never stop?

Sizz
  • #746
  • Dec 27, 2007 9:55pm Dec 27, 2007 9:55pm
Sbrick,

alright.. like I said bear with me because well I am not quick when it comes to indicators, but I have ever the open mind and drive to look and sound stupid

However, whatever your indicators are doing basically tells me the machine should tap in an order to buy/sell based on the break of S or R and a SL is immediately placed at the opposite aka sup breached a sell is placed and a SL placed at resistance with a tp of at least 138 level or first salmon level

In keeping with your MO of working smarter through computing.. I would say you could write an EA annnnd it could also size positions based on account equity, sl pip size and MM rules to fullly automate in something a long those lines no?

Now I would ask if you have run the tests backwards to see the reliability buuut it looks like you have the good stuff.

On a diff note, isn't it neat to watch price bounce off of s/r and channel? if you hit a good flow it is oh so nice.


also what is your s/r calculating off of ..I ask because

the whole above thing seems to be thrown for a loop on the 4 hr bar on the 24th 25th? we see a break and then nothing... but brand new s/r again...

Yes no? maybe so?

Sizz
  • #747
  • Dec 27, 2007 10:05pm Dec 27, 2007 10:05pm
Well I'll reveal my ignorance. Here are a 4hr and 1hr chart of Eur/Aud with my fibs. Fire away! I'm speculating that price will stall and fall for good somewhere below the red pivot fib (50.0).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ea chart 4hr.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ea chart 1hr.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #748
  • Dec 27, 2007 10:13pm Dec 27, 2007 10:13pm
Quoting sizzler
Does anyone have any interest in doing realtime chart analysis?

like working on the fibs posting charts and doing group discussion? or maybe back charts from vhands so as not to encourage live trading

I, personally, love charting and FEEL it might be helpful to say throw a current chart of xyz/zyx on what ever time frame, FIB it out and go from there.. more of like an open discussion.

maybe throw in some confluence factors like pa or patterns s/r things of the like...

if everyone is agreeable, we would just pick a pair and a tf and go to town or have one person chart and comment I don;t know maybe everyone do their version...and Skunny could comment and address consolidated issues as we would be working as a semi-borg like collective. also he could direct the ship so to speak.

Or since it seems like there is a small group of folks actively working in the thread that could be the kick off group.

just riffing here.. you like the idea? grab that big, beautiful butterfly! you no likey just let it pass by.. I am sure myself, lowell, blue, sbrick , colbert(piphitman), to name a few could get some cool stuff done of course I would muck it up somehow, but whatever...

I am totally down for public ridicule and being openly nakedly wrongo!! If you aren't making mistakes you aren't learning! I spose this is good news as it appears I have never, nor will I ever stop learning

new thread? keep it on this thread? don't do it all? do it and never stop?

Sizz

Sizz,

Great idea I'm in http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif. I think group thinking is always better then going at it solo. We could all feed of each others ideas and hopefully have the master Skunny critique us to give us a feel if were on the right track or siting in left field somewhere.

My opinion is to do a new thread as to not hijack this one, since many would start screaming bloody murder if Sbrick or one of us starting posting charts with lines on them.

I've been playing with Vhands but feel as though im still sitting in left field. The good news is im off the bench. The bad news is i think i went to the wrong field.

Do it.

Gmoney
  • #749
  • Dec 27, 2007 10:24pm Dec 27, 2007 10:24pm
A thing of beauty!

Now, if I could predict it consistently, lol.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj chart 4hr 1.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #750
  • Dec 27, 2007 10:30pm Dec 27, 2007 10:30pm
Quoting lowell
Well I'll reveal my ignorance. Here are a 4hr and 1hr chart of Eur/Aud with my fibs. Fire away! I'm speculating that price will stall and fall for good somewhere below the red pivot fib (50.0).
Lowell,

If your talking about the 1.8644 level, I would say i agree, before even reading your comments that's the spot that i noticed after i pulled up your chart. However for discloser purposes i'm a newbie.
  • #751
  • Dec 27, 2007 10:33pm Dec 27, 2007 10:33pm
Yah, the 1.6843 level. Hard to read on the chart I posted.

Quoting Gmoney
Lowell,

If your talking about the 1.8644 level, I would say i agree, before even reading your comments that's the spot that i noticed after i pulled up your chart. However for discloser purposes i'm a newbie.
  • #752
  • Dec 27, 2007 11:04pm Dec 27, 2007 11:04pm
Quote
I would say you could write an EA annnnd it could also size positions based on account equity, sl pip size and MM rules to fullly automate in something a long those lines no?

I am not interested in writing EAs.

Quote
also what is your s/r calculating off of ..I ask because

the whole above thing seems to be thrown for a loop on the 4 hr bar on the 24th 25th? we see a break and then nothing... but brand new s/r again...

I am using the Barry Support Resistance indicator that I modied to plot the fib projections. Remember, this is a H4 chart... perhaps the Daily and/or Weekly charts hold more clues as to why the price stopped and reversed.
  • #753
  • Dec 27, 2007 11:18pm Dec 27, 2007 11:18pm
Only 10 pips from target....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fib.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #754
  • Dec 27, 2007 11:45pm Dec 27, 2007 11:45pm
Sbrick,

rodger rodger


Lowell
was that drawn live or retroactively?
on that gbp/jpy cht I couldn't get it drawn like that walking the fib on the 138 like we talked about. I hit the tp but it wasn;t clean looking. I hit it by holding the 0 bar and by walking it with a new 138 hit. both times tp hit but both time left a little on the table.

... nice pinocchio bar though

eur/aud I would say 1.6840 looks to be the top and she has to fall sometime.

Sizz
  • #755
  • Dec 27, 2007 11:46pm Dec 27, 2007 11:46pm
http://i7.tinypic.com/71popd0.gif

PRICE ACTION...

USDJPY nearing the .618 daily lower fib projection(yellow dot) which is based on yesterday's price range...

low - ( ( high - low ) * .618 )


EDIT: Dang, had I waited 5 minutes, I could have shown the fib projection was touched but I don't dare post another chart.
  • #756
  • Dec 28, 2007 12:02am Dec 28, 2007 12:02am
Quoting SBrickman

PRICE ACTION...

USDJPY nearing the .618 daily lower fib projection(yellow dot) which is based on yesterday's price range...

low - ( ( high - low ) * .618 )


EDIT: Dang, had I waited 5 minutes, I could have shown the fib projection was touched but I don't dare post another chart.
Sbrick,

So it is my understanding that if the price does hit the -.618 level we should then expect it to retrace back to the daily fib level of -.382. Would that be the start of a new cycle? And has anyone really grasped the concept of a new cycle. I have watched vhands and read the thread albeit only once so far, but still cant grasp the new cycle thing very well. Is this what you have been noticing watching the PA?

More Charts...More Charts... lol.

Thanks in advance.

Gmoney
  • #757
  • Dec 28, 2007 12:34am Dec 28, 2007 12:34am
Quoting kiwi_trader
Would you guys stop flooding this thread with charts of indicators please!

The thread is about awareness of price action not automation with mt.

Please take indicators and debates about sharing software somewhere else.

lol
  • #758
  • Dec 28, 2007 2:14am Dec 28, 2007 2:14am
Quote
Sbrick,

So it is my understanding that if the price does hit the -.618 level we should then expect it to retrace back to the daily fib level of -.382. Would that be the start of a new cycle? And has anyone really grasped the concept of a new cycle. I have watched vhands and read the thread albeit only once so far, but still cant grasp the new cycle thing very well. Is this what you have been noticing watching the PA?

Either the price continues in the current direction or it reverses... you just have to watch and wait. You can expect, anticipate and react to what the price is doing.
  • #759
  • Dec 28, 2007 6:49am Dec 28, 2007 6:49am
Hello everyone, very interesting thread here.
I would like to post some interesting chart for GJ.
Look that after the initial move up the price failes to touch 38.2 fibo.
I think it may be consider as the strong bullish sign, what do you think?
And after that price goes up to 161.8 expansion, and penetrates it.
Is it also the bullish sign ?
Just my thoughts. I think we should more focus on trading and try to find out how the stuff works.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #760
  • Edited 7:41am Dec 28, 2007 6:50am | Edited 7:41am
Quoting sizzler
Sbrick,

rodger rodger


Lowell
was that drawn live or retroactively?
on that gbp/jpy cht I couldn't get it drawn like that walking the fib on the 138 like we talked about. I hit the tp but it wasn;t clean looking. I hit it by holding the 0 bar and by walking it with a new 138 hit. both times tp hit but both time left a little on the table.

... nice pinocchio bar though

eur/aud I would say 1.6840 looks to be the top and she has to fall sometime.

Sizz

Sadly, it was drawn retroactively. But Skunny told me in a pm that if price doesn't react perfectly to the fib, it is drawn incorrectly. So I'm just playing around drawing fibs in different ways after a move, hoping for a clue.

Have any of you really studied the trades that Skunny posted earlier on this thread? I can't help but think there is surely a clue in the fibs he drew.

I think our biggest question here is how to look at a chart and know exactly the beginning and end of a cycle. I have a hunch there is a way to tell by observing PA alone. IF.........BIG IF we know exactly what to look for.

Something that I keep remembering is what Skunny told Blueruby early in the thread about fibbing only the weekly bars. 11 out of the 52 bars Blueruby fibbed would have hit the SL before TP if the TP was set at the 138 after penetration and the SL at the 0 line.

SKUNNY'S HINT: "Don't worry about the winners, just figure out why the losers lost."

The losing bars had the open and close inside the following bars open/close.
I fibbed the losers and one thing I noticed was that on the losers, after price penetrated the 0 or 100 lines, it retraced back past the 50 line. It seems the winners never retraced past the 50 line before hitting the 138.

So maybe IF the fib is drawn correctly, we can set our SL on the opposite side of the 50 line and be prepared as Skunny says to trade in the opposite direction if the SL is hit? Please test this for yourselves. I have'nt done it enough to form a definite conclusion.

On a side note: Assuming that truly this method is perfect if applied properly, then the losing weekly bars were in the middle of a cycle and the winners were completed cycles. Dunno if I'm making any sense. :
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