GbpUsd Statistical Probability With Price Action

Thursday after a 175 pip drop the gbpusd did not retrace even to the 23.6 fib by the end of the Thursday trading day but did retrace to the 50 fib level Friday then down to create a double low for Thursday and Friday.

On the weekly it seems over extended with no major retracement on Dec. 14 or Dec. 21. Looking at PA toward the upper weekly fibs basing on the over extension of the gbpusd and it's normal weekly wave patterns of 77.6% statistical probability of it retracing to the 50 fib level off of the double low of the daily. Not to say it wont break below the 9809. level but have a bias up to the weekly 50 fib or so.

GbpUsd WAR

A look at the WAR for the year with a break out of gbpusd (WRM) weekly range of motion and WAR since July.

A look at weekly fib retracements for 2007 and 2006. See this link for past 9 years of weekly retracements. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27624&page=37
Post 413

Post 60 starts up dated information.

Range of Motion Statistical Probabilities

Could you please post a chart, screen shot of this,
I am having a hard time understanding this

Thank you

Possible weekly scenario.

1) Weekly Pivot
2) Break Above 9849 high for the weekly 4hr Range
3) Targeting Weekly Fibs With High Probability
4) Yearly WAR Of 299 pips 2.0053
5) 266 Pips falls in the 60% Statistical Probability Of Weekly Range Of Motion (GbpUsd has moved Between 134 pips and 266 pips 30 out of the 50 weeks this year) It has ranged over 266 pips 20 times this year.
6) Daily High For 12/20/07 was 9986

7) Weekly Target of 9950 taking into consideration

a) 9968 weekly (38.2 fib)
b) 9986 (12/20/07 Daily High).
c) 12 pip to 15 pip tolerance of hitting s/r levels
d) 9950 being a number ending in 0

Now will have to watch and see

2508

Current daily range is 60 pips retraced to the 61.8 fib of the current days high and low looking for bull trend to continue after daily correction and correction from being over bought on Nov 9th's high of 2.1161

It has retraced to the 61.8 daily Fib. As of Dec. 4 it had retraced to this level 159 of the 239 trading days for a 66.5% probability. Do not have access to update info. It's Daily range from high to low is 130 pips. See post 67 for daily range probabilities and number of times it has ranged 130 pips or less or 130 pips or more. It did hit the high probability target of 9950 and beyond by 8 pips (see post 69) . Look for Pa to see where it moves for Friday. Currently its weekly range of motion is 203 pips well below the yearly WAR and recent weeks range of motion. The year is about to end and the holidays are upon which could limit its range of motion.

2671

A big bounce off of what was the daily 61.8 fib of the days high and low.



2703

http://i11.tinypic.com/8gdu51d.gif

Notice your retrace lines up with the fib projections ( salmon and yellow dots )

Pls i need ur help i have a long now and also a short losing 65pips while the long is gaining 16pips what should i do now?

I sent you a personal message

Hi Tom,
In your post 69, why did you choose the high point for the Fib at 2.0224 and not at the level of 2.0560?
Could you please help me understand?

2.0224 Is the high for last week. 2.0560 is close to the high of the previous week

[quote=goodthings;1774354]It has retraced to the 61.8 daily Fib. As of Dec. 4 it had retraced to this level 159 of the 239 trading days for a 66.5% probability. Do not have access to update info. It's Daily range from high to low is 130 pips. See post 67 for daily range probabilities and number of times it has ranged 130 pips or less or 130 pips or more. It did hit the high probability target of 9950 and beyond by 8 pips (see post 69) . Look for Pa to see where it moves for Friday. Currently its weekly range of motion is 203 pips well below the yearly WAR and recent weeks range of motion. The year is about to end and the holidays are upon which could limit its range of motion

The above quote is not applicable since the new high of 9965 is established. Now the 61.8 fib has not been hit. With a major daily pivot of 9879 the probability of it retracing to the 61.8 fib becomes less probable. Possible 23.6 or 38.2 would be more probable.

I traded with 0.2 lots with north finance.I went long at 1.9951 and i went short at 1.9884 and now the trade is at 1.9958. with 77 pips against me and 7 pips for me from by short

Daily Fib Retracements for GbpUsd