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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #5,441
  • Dec 27, 2007 12:03pm Dec 27, 2007 12:03pm
Approaching the 113.50 area that was resistance and now is support
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,442
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:21pm Dec 27, 2007 1:21pm
JPY Indicators would be coming later today..
I am sure JPY wud see strength

I view for 113 to hit

What other people think

My Assumption is technical studies is also telling that USD/JPY will push down

Pass your views.
  • #5,443
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:21pm Dec 27, 2007 5:21pm
How many persons are short in USD/JPY?
  • #5,444
  • Dec 27, 2007 11:20pm Dec 27, 2007 11:20pm
Quoting jacobtrader
How many persons are short in USD/JPY?
Long term, I'm looking to see 105 as a conservative target.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #5,445
  • Dec 27, 2007 11:35pm Dec 27, 2007 11:35pm
Short term support looks like 112.78-112.95 area. A little longer term looks like 111.81, 110.93 and 110.05. I don't know what 2008 holds for it, I'm pretty sure everyone is expecting for Japan to keep their rates on hold for a while; but at the same time the US Dollar doesn't look to get much better to say the least. (Not to mention a decrease in the fed funds rate to forecasted levels of 3.25%-3.75% by June of 2008.)
  • #5,446
  • Dec 28, 2007 9:46am Dec 28, 2007 9:46am
Quoting mike w
Long term, I'm looking to see 105 as a conservative target.
I agree 100%. The tough part is finding good entries, and then keeping my finger off the CLOSE button.
  • #5,447
  • Dec 28, 2007 10:52am Dec 28, 2007 10:52am

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,448
  • Dec 28, 2007 11:02am Dec 28, 2007 11:02am
Quoting jacobtrader
How many persons are short in USD/JPY?
I am planning to short today at 113.00 with [email protected] and [email protected] .
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,449
  • Dec 28, 2007 11:04am Dec 28, 2007 11:04am
Quoting chady250
I am planning to short today at 113.00 with [email protected] and [email protected] .
Short is good, but I would wait for a better price. 113 has been very tough to get through so far.
  • #5,450
  • Dec 28, 2007 11:05am Dec 28, 2007 11:05am
Quoting jacobtrader
How many persons are short in USD/JPY?
I am planning to short today at 113.00 with [email protected] (Critical Low) and [email protected] (approx 50 pips above high)
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,451
  • Dec 28, 2007 11:07am Dec 28, 2007 11:07am
Quoting falcon232
Short is good, but I would wait for a better price. 113 has been very tough to get through so far.
True you do have a point there. Lol but I think the risk is worth it. hehe
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,452
  • Dec 28, 2007 5:09pm Dec 28, 2007 5:09pm
What do you think the chances are that other JPY pairs will stop suffering at the USD weakness in the USDJPY cross?

I don't like USDJPY long, but I like CADJPY long. I am looking for further depreciation in USDCAD to make the difference I presume, but seems like that change is long over due.
  • #5,453
  • Dec 28, 2007 7:47pm Dec 28, 2007 7:47pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
What do you think the chances are that other JPY pairs will stop suffering at the USD weakness in the USDJPY cross?
They can't, USDJPY is the underlying of every yen cross. It has the highest volume of any yen pair.

I was also recently long CADJPY for most of its rise from 109 - 116. At the time, both USDJPY and USDCAD were lining up perfectly. That's the best time to be in any cross, when both of the underlying majors are working together in the same direction. Now, USDJPY is in disarray, while USDCAD is still in a healthy downtrend. At this time, I'm favoring USDCAD short alone, rather than CADJPY long, due to the underlying weakness of USDJPY.
  • #5,454
  • Dec 30, 2007 8:25am Dec 30, 2007 8:25am
Quoting pepbullish

Attachment
I am a fundamental FX trader and for the last six months my focus has been on USD/JPY

For many fundamental reasons with the main one in my opinion being the substantial unwinding of the Trillion Dollar Plus YEN carry trade because of the meltdown in housing in the USA, the incredible losses still to be suffered by financial entities including the giants like JP Morgan and others.

I can see the USD/JPY at 100 or less by the end of 2008

The markets will be more than unstable in 2008 and the YEN will be the biggest gainer of all. Of course you need to decide that for yourself since it is your money at risk.

For me the key is deciding on the KEY entry and exit points. On a short term basis the trend can change in minutes depending on the NEW data that comes out. For example the New Home Sales released on Friday last.

Next Friday is NFP and if it is as bad as 4Cast suggests under 50,000 or so, it will make the PERCEPTION 100% that the FED will CUT in January 2008.

I will await some comments from fellow posters and FX traders.

I wish everyone here a Happy New Year and GREAT FX trading for all in 2008.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #5,455
  • Dec 30, 2007 8:37am Dec 30, 2007 8:37am
Quoting PolishTrader
This is how I see it :

The 21EMA (red) and 55EMA (blue) has just crossed 200 EMA (green) [ok,21 EMA had done earlier) on 1h chart

Besides we broke thorugh lower arm of triangle to the downside (grey,bolded line)

At 114.99 there is 38.2%fib retracment which both with 115.00 psychological level act as support.If we break that area then I think that we can move to Weekly S1 (114.17) - but in the middle there are few fib levels so it might stop earlier.

The disadvantage is fact of overbought indicators - so it might be good idea to catch short,lets say,on Weekly Pivot

This is just my opinion - I'm looking forward to yours

P.S

Fib levels may differ because of my broker

P.S.2

You can check on the left side of the picture that the last time the 21EMA and 55EMA crossed 200EMA we had later nice drop - I believe it was somewhere around 28 August as you can see.

Still - history don't have to repeat
I was going through some of the older posts on this thread to catch up and I thought it would be helpful for everyone to see how things have happened since August 2007 and the meltdown in housing and financials and the unwinding of the Trillion Dollar Plus YEN Carry Trade

It should be a FUN 2008 if USD/JPY heads to 100.00 again.

Look at a 25 Year Chart

Have a great trading year in 2008

I am not a technical trader however the technical view is essential to understand the present market psychology.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #5,456
  • Dec 30, 2007 8:42am Dec 30, 2007 8:42am
Quoting Warren Forex
I am a fundamental FX trader and for the last six months my focus has been on USD/JPY

For many fundamental reasons with the main one in my opinion being the substantial unwinding of the Trillion Dollar Plus YEN carry trade because of the meltdown in housing in the USA, the incredible losses still to be suffered by financial entities including the giants like JP Morgan and others.

I can see the USD/JPY at 100 or less by the end of 2008.
Thanks for your insights Warren. Us chart guys need to hear the perspective of the fundamentalists! Do you see the DOW getting weak along side USD/JPY?
  • #5,457
  • Dec 30, 2007 8:58am Dec 30, 2007 8:58am
There is definitely a relationship between the DOW and the USD/JPY. The two move in opposite directions.

Hope this helps
  • #5,458
  • Dec 30, 2007 9:00am Dec 30, 2007 9:00am
Can anyone post Fib patterns of the USD/JPY and EXPLAIN how they intrept them?

As i ve said in the past - I see JPY strength and have positioned myself accordingly - However I ve yet to see the chart say that to me

Ideas?
  • #5,459
  • Dec 30, 2007 9:10am Dec 30, 2007 9:10am
Lots of ways to use fibs. Most common is to plot retracement levels.
Pick any major swing high/swing lows and draw your fib retracements.
Very common for price to find Support/Resistance at 61.8, 50, and 38.2
fib levels.

Works on any pair, not just USD/JPY. Fibs are covered in many
free forex ebooks in a lot of places.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,460
  • Dec 30, 2007 9:21am Dec 30, 2007 9:21am
Quite a different look on CADJPY using Gann lineshttp://www.keefermedia.com/content/CADJPYDEC31.jpg

I have a feeling USDJPY is going to continue to outperform realtive to otehr USD crosses./
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