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  • #3,381
  • Dec 23, 2007 8:20am Dec 23, 2007 8:20am
Quoting falcon232
Well, I'm not seeing that downtrend. I'm seeing 1.5.
BEWARE about your view, EUR can go a little more higher for about 1.45 ou 1.46, then I think will resume the Downtrend, when it reaches 1.40, then we can see a nice turnaround again and price can go to around 1.47 again but my view it is that we will not see 1.50 again in 2008.

Take care and I wish you are wrong, because if you win I will loose
  • #3,382
  • Dec 23, 2007 10:01am Dec 23, 2007 10:01am
Quoting BoredToLoose
BEWARE about your view, EUR can go a little more higher for about 1.45 ou 1.46, then I think will resume the Downtrend, when it reaches 1.40, then we can see a nice turnaround again and price can go to around 1.47 again but my view it is that we will not see 1.50 again in 2008.

Take care and I wish you are wrong, because if you win I will loose
The trend is still up. We haven't hit the 50% retracement yet.
  • #3,383
  • Dec 23, 2007 6:31pm Dec 23, 2007 6:31pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
BEWARE about your view, EUR can go a little more higher for about 1.45 ou 1.46, then I think will resume the Downtrend, when it reaches 1.40, then we can see a nice turnaround again and price can go to around 1.47 again but my view it is that we will not see 1.50 again in 2008.

Take care and I wish you are wrong, because if you win I will loose
I agree with u. If by month end, eur/usd closed below 1.4416(noverber low), a long term downtrend will start. I am thinking eur/usd is going south in 2008. Just check monthly chart.

I also noticed that ecb freezed the interest rate in Oct 2000, and then started cutting the rate in may 2001. Of course, this may happen again. The interest rate is unchanged since june 2007... Just my thought.
  • #3,384
  • Dec 23, 2007 6:54pm Dec 23, 2007 6:54pm
Quoting mry2001
I agree with u. If by month end, eur/usd closed below 1.4416(noverber low), a long term downtrend will start. I am thinking eur/usd is going south in 2008. Just check monthly chart.

I also noticed that ecb freezed the interest rate in Oct 2000, and then started cutting the rate in may 2001. Of course, this may happen again. The interest rate is unchanged since june 2007... Just my thought.
did you watch what Trichet said last week?

forget about rate cuts, there is not room!.
i bellieve in the conspirancy to destroy the status quo of the dollar.
ecb just have it so close. it has just to raise rates to unravel the great usd sellof.

Trichet, you are so close to put euro as the new global prefered currency.
and usd existence in really serious threat, what is happening today never never has happened in history at lest not since the roman empire fall.

dont destroy this chance Trichet, give the world the chance to have financial stability again with a strong euro. if you have to sacrifice some growth, do it!, when oil can price in euros, an unraveled prosperity ins going to cover europe like never before.

Trichet, think very well what you are going to do.
also this is big a chance for americans to review its economical policies, cut deficit and help them to make more exports, get out of house bubble and revive usa economy as well.

Big things are in your hands Trichet, i bet you have more room to manouver than the fed itself. you now got the cards.
  • #3,385
  • Dec 23, 2007 8:07pm Dec 23, 2007 8:07pm
Quoting falcon232
The trend is still up. We haven't hit the 50% retracement yet.


What do you mean by 50% retracement? Care to elaborate that for me please.

Thanks.
'When the student is ready, the teacher will come'
  • #3,386
  • Dec 24, 2007 4:48am Dec 24, 2007 4:48am
Well, many people are sure about the downtrend of the eur-usd (while other people are not sure), in the mean time i bought yesterday night (gmt+1) some lots of eur-usd, target is 1.4455, i waked up today expecting that price has reached the target, but i see it is still in the 1.4390 area, i'm up 13 pips, waiting for the up-move... (In the meantime i putted the sl to breakeven, i don't like the fact that the move is waiting too much to be accomplished), if sl will be hitted i will look chf-jpy, it is near to break a trendline, looking for short it, but it is still soon, so just will wait to some confirmation), anyother is long in eur-usd with some similar target?
  • #3,387
  • Dec 24, 2007 1:58pm Dec 24, 2007 1:58pm
I think we may see a near term upside, but monthly show bearish signal.
Cautions for anyone longing, as this has more legs to go on the downside.
'When the student is ready, the teacher will come'
  • #3,388
  • Dec 25, 2007 7:11pm Dec 25, 2007 7:11pm
Hey I was wondering if someone could catch me up on this pair. I havent been trading it for one two months so I was wondering what is going on. Do you guys think it will test 1.5000 area again?
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #3,389
  • Edited Dec 26, 2007 3:55am Dec 25, 2007 11:07pm | Edited Dec 26, 2007 3:55am
I agree with the long Euro story. I've clocked 473 pips this month taking advantage of the USD strength after that insane PPI number from US. Also all the hype about institutions cashing-in their long Euro positions before year-end. Well, we've reached year end and its time to look at the facts ahead of next year!

Euro is under considerable inflationary pressure even though the currency is strong. This coupled with Trichet's comments lately make a rate rise very likely. All it takes is some more confirmation of the inflation effects in Euro land and we will have the trigger to launch Euro back above the recent trend line.

US has not seen the bottom of the housing bubble and the consumer credit story can not be ignored. Its a matter of time before the consumer is forced to save and stop spending.

The facts are there, if we go long USD, we're just acting on emotion related to a severly punished USD and not on facts pointing to a seroiously prosperous Europe.

Am waiting for the last of the USD bulls to bring the pair down a little ahead of year end before I take my long position in the pair.

Wish you all luck and a happy new year!
  • #3,390
  • Dec 26, 2007 9:52am Dec 26, 2007 9:52am
I have closed Today my Longs from 1.4310 and 1.4325, and Opened one short at 1.4480. I hope the price will not break 1.4525.
EMA50 it is at 1.4450, so I hope I see price within a 1.44/1.45 Range next 2 days.

Good Luck!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,391
  • Dec 26, 2007 11:32am Dec 26, 2007 11:32am
People really like it short eh? I am curious what are key observations that lead one to believe it's not going to 1.60
  • #3,392
  • Dec 26, 2007 11:53am Dec 26, 2007 11:53am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
People really like it short eh? I am curious what are key observations that lead one to believe it's not going to 1.60
You can see it at 1.60, but only after the actual correction ended!
Of course that even Today or next days the price can go above 1.46, but everyone has his opinions and follow them.
My Opinion is that the price will see 1.40 or even lower for then start to see EURO bull again, but then there are traders who don't see price reach again near 1.50 and ones who see 1.60.
I See 2008 as a $USD Year, this doesn't mean the End of EURO Bulls, it is only a Major Correction for then you see yours 1.60, I just don't know when if 2008 or 2009.
I have already read some Currency analysts predicting that we will see in 2009 the parity with EURO, that it is not my Opinion, so as you can see there is a lot of different Opinions.
  • #3,393
  • Dec 26, 2007 12:01pm Dec 26, 2007 12:01pm
Compared to other crosses the EURUSD cross had help up very well in the recent USD bullishness. I am thinking of the pair as best of breed in an uncertain world. Granted no one can say for sure where it will go, hypothetically, monday we could here that the German Manufcaturing is, "blah, blah, blah," and see further ERU weakness. Strange times indeed. I did not believe the "best of breed" theory enough to go long myself, for the record.
  • #3,394
  • Dec 26, 2007 12:27pm Dec 26, 2007 12:27pm
I think the EUR/USD is going to be over 1.50 in the next year. However this does not prevent me from shorting it now a 1.45... I think there are some pips to be made here before the bulls come again.
  • #3,395
  • Dec 26, 2007 12:30pm Dec 26, 2007 12:30pm
Quoting branco
I think the EUR/USD is going to be over 1.50 in the next year. However this does not prevent me from shorting it now a 1.45... I think there are some pips to be made here before the bulls come again.
Technically speaking, the daily surge from 1.3350-1.4970 has already retraced to the 38.2 level. You may be right, but it is not heading below 1.40.
I was impressed with the Euro's "strength" during this USD rally. It didn't fall apart like the cable.
  • #3,396
  • Dec 26, 2007 8:31pm Dec 26, 2007 8:31pm
Got some skin in the game now to show a little faith in my analysis and diversify against my GBPUSD position which I just halved.
  • #3,397
  • Dec 27, 2007 12:04am Dec 27, 2007 12:04am
Hi guys, r u trading right now?
I missed the swing yesterday n my broker is not open yet until 9:00pm
euro break high! oh.. shit! I missed again...
  • #3,398
  • Dec 27, 2007 12:41am Dec 27, 2007 12:41am
Quoting M@2t
Hi guys, r u trading right now?
I missed the swing yesterday n my broker is not open yet until 9:00pm
euro break high! oh.. shit! I missed again...
I have been in the pair for the past two days
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.png Size: 26 KB
  • #3,399
  • Dec 27, 2007 10:50am Dec 27, 2007 10:50am
It's all longs from here now ...
  • #3,400
  • Dec 27, 2007 11:03am Dec 27, 2007 11:03am
Quoting Schminner
It's all longs from here now ...
All we can do is hope that it is all longs from here. I've got a long position thats going for 1.5000 with a PT of 1.4400, what are your guys positions???
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
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