Aussie Pairs

The pair did fall and hit the line. It has now crossed the line, but I'm not getting in the way of the savage uptrend.

How many positions in this pair,entry points and target exit if any?

we also had a pin bar formed on the daily. I wouldnt look to take too much out of this All those carry trades with the yen

looks like it is about to hit a pretty strong support line.. around 93.50 or so.. look to buy around there.

There we go. I knew this one was set for a drop... just had to wait a day.

I'm with ScottH on the support line.

Buy Order: 9360 (currently 9366)
SL: 9330
TP: 9420

Let's see what this puppy does.

Today is Jan 4th. I expect this pair as well as the GBP/USD and EUR/USD have reached their high for the next several months. They are headed down.

At least you got the date right. Any technical or fundamental reasons why you would make such a statement?

Considering what is happening at present with GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY I would expect that the other carry trade pairs, AUD/JPY and USD/JPY for instance would be supported as investors dumped those pairs in favour of other pairs holding their value, and therefore their long positions, better.

Given that situation and the general condition of the aussie economy I would not consider the recent drop more than a retracement in a long upward trend.

It does look like a nice long position trade with good interest payment.

Boy did I call that wrong. I went in and made adjustments to my system, taking into account volumn etc. on carry trades... when all along my tried and true system worked all along...

Lesson: If it ain't broke, at least have a SL to cover your ASSets

My prediction: Currently 93.12 it has another 25 to 30 pip drop so I will say that by this time tomorrow it will have reached 92.85

After that, my system doesn't work so no telling which way it will go.

Remember: This is ONLY MY OPINION. If I was trading it, that's what I would do. But then, I always have SLs so I have been known to make a mistake or two

Will I be in this one: Nope. Not that I wouldn't mind a few pips but I'm still learning this pair (love/hate that interest)

Good luck and remember to trade YOUR system not MINE

Well it looks like you got your wish today though.

If you sold a break of the previous day's low you would have had a 150 pip ride thereabouts. The selling pressure on this pair is rediculous right now. But its also parabolic, and I'm guessing it'll consolidate slightly before volatility ensues. Today's bar is more than twice the previous day's and I would be sketch before making any moves. Also, my oscillators were so severly oversold they're riding in middle territory right now even with this huge downward push. If you're feeling ballsy, sell the low of this bar +2 pips when and if it breaks but be ready to close it immediately, without question, if it starts to retrace upwards. AUD is getting slammed right now but JPY's a bit more tame.

By the way, I also saw a sell starting to develop on the 2nd, when you made your original post, but nothing to qualify it with, if it makes you fell any better. Qualification came today at the break. Definately wouldn't say you were far off.

Laters,

I think I let emotion get to me after having one too many Stop Losses hit when my system said otherwise.

I usually trade US pairs (fairly decently but I can't retire... yet )but thought I would venture out. When robbooker said that this pair was a "Carry Trade" I did a little look at the volume of open positions, outstanding positions, etc., did a little back testing, and came up with a different set of numbers.

Meanwhile, my tried and true system that has been with me for a couple of years was laughing at me as this pair did exactly as it said it would... and more so. Right now it's at 92.57 - I would have gotten out (if I had traded it) around 92.80.

No worries... there's always tomorrow

robbooker, we might have seen support here, just as i'm typing, nfp didn't manage to push eur below 1.3 for good and looks like a reverse head and shoulder is forming for eurusd and cable. Enough of that, good news is looks like bears on carry is taking a breather or the shorts are covering position to avoid paying swap...

have you any views on the bears strength?

There we go, an easy trade for 100 pips.
Shorted on the break of support, took profit on the low (oh, almost to the pip!!!), awesome!

Bears are big and hairy, But Japanese Bulls are bigger - and they smell badly.

I've been short on AUD/JPY since January 3rd at around midnight... I am looking at 174 PIPS at the moment, and waiting on today's outcome to decide when to buy. I expect a break above 93 will get me out of there, but we'll just have to see

AUD is finally getting a serious beating

hahaha Don't you just love benefiting from it too?

yup, especially the AUD/CAD pair which might collapse all the way to 1.1330 or so, where the 100 and 250 MAs currently sit. The 200MA is also just below 1.13.

I expect the real fall there to start as soon as USD selling starts again, this will drive USD/CAD (in which I am also sort) and the AUD/CAD further down

Hmmm... will look into that... thanks!

The trendline worked nicely for a sell -- which obviously from my previous posts I didn't take -- and it's great to hear that a bunch of you made a lot of pippage from the trade! An updated chart is below.

just when i was ready to double short this pair at 92.00, it bounced nicely up, love it or hate it...