Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Hey Daytek.

Thank you for posting your chart.

Attached is my 5min chart.

Started to hedge my long trade now by 4 out of 7 parts.

if this turns out as a wave 2 down now as in the chart , then I can exit my hedge. it not, then I will let it ride.

Stochastics levels on the lower TFs is way over bought but the 4hour stochs is starting to cross back the 20 level.

So I am basically biased to seeing this as wave 2 then it continues with the 4 hour new upward trend.

Whew..... Starting to cross my fingers and what ever I could still cross here

EG

Hey..

How do you get those additional or baby median lines on your Andrews Pitchfork?

Those Andrews Pitchfork set ups do help a lot. thank you for bring that up and posting your chart.

EG

15min chart

Price is sitting on the confluence of 34ema, 50ema and 62 ema ( 224.60) right below the Daily Pivot which 15min candle pierced earlier at 224.85

Took out all my edge at total - 8pips without waiting for this potential wave down to finish c=a for a sub wave b of the potential wave 4 up.

that was because price was sitting right there at the confluence of 3 emas below the DP.

Now it has touched the 224.55 which gives a c=a for the sub wave b

It is more likely now that I will sit and wait for price to go down then up again to complete a potential wave 4 UP.

EG

Bullish engulfing candle formed on the 4hr chart.

Price is still struggling to get past the 15min 100sma (224.74) then stay above the Daily Pivot of 224.85

Here is my current view on the EURUSD EW Wave Count.

EG

Price has been attacking the Daily Pivot Level on the 15min chart.

Looks like it failed again.

Looking at the 15min chart again, wave 2 seemed to have developed sideways and the 4hour Stochs just reached toward the 50 level from the oversold levels. Wave 4 normally kisses the 80 level from below on a Bearish main trend. That is if we are indeed in a 12345 wave down from 230.31

Right now 4 hour stochs is just crossing back into the trade zone at the 20 Level.

Things to ponder on:

the move up from 223.56 up to 225.09 could be classified in 2 ways.

A 3 wave abc of an A wave of a Zigzag ABC going up as wave 4 provided the move down from 225.09 does retrace more than 50% of the Wave A to have a zigzag wave up.

Or it can be classified as a 5 wave A which makes as look for a wave B that is either a Flat or a Triangle . then a C= A later


Next thing to ponder on:

If price from 225.09 retraces towards the previous low by 61.8% or 78.6%, chances are move from 230.31 down to 223.56 was wave abc of a Zigzag wave c of Wave B.

and that the 61.8-78.6% retracement down from 225.09 is a wave 2.


I would personally like to see GBPJPY retrace down to the 61.8-78.6% level so that we have better chances of seeing price reach the down ward trendline on the 4hr chart.

But if it persists to attack the Daily pivot level now and succeed to close and open above that level.....

then chances are , price will be back on the bear move much faster.

EG

Hello everyone.

and this is my long term view for gbp/jpy in new year......analyses for other pairs you can check here.

Glad to see you posting your chart here again money.

Attached is my current view on the 4hour chart.

Still no conclusive idea if we are in a wave C up to finish wave 2 in my count or a wave 4 zizag going up.

EG

as price goes up and stayed above Daily Pivot level,

then w3 is just a bit longer than w1, then I am inclined to see w5 to be 161.8% of the price from w1 to w3 for this wave 5.

161.8% FE is at 226.53 which is just above the 50% retracement of wave 3 and still way below the end of wave 1. Incidentally , this is also at the Daily resistance 2 level which commonly is a Strong resistance level.

I will be looking at starting my hedge for my previous Long trades at this level.

Currently holding 7 parts which I might be able to exit 2 at a profit at this level. That leaves me with 5 more to hedge.

I will see how things go. but will most likely hedge 2 from the 161.8% extention level.

EG

Possible throwover to end the ending diagonal wave 5 on the 5min chart of GBPJPY.

Then a resumption of the move down to finish off the wave 5 of wave 3 down?

EG

I did not get to see the completion of an ending diagonal wave 5.

Instead, I got what seems to be an expanding barrier triangle. It is possible that there is still a small move down then another thrust to the upside to touch the upper side of this expanding triangle.

But right now, I have already exited 3 parts long trade with minimal loss while I am currently holding 4parts of the old Long trades and another 4 parts Short trades which actually were placed abit too early at 225.28 and 225.47

See you all on Sunday open or our Monday open here in Asia.

EG

Note the 5 Zigzag waves inside the expanding triangle.

A throwover could bring price up to the Resistance 2 level @ 226.59

Otherwise, it will just hit the upper side of this expanding triangle which also is at the 50% retracement level of wave 3 at 226.31.

On the 15 min chart, price has pierced thru the median line of a shi channel and is almost near the previous days High of 226.42

From here, I wait....

EG

Hello Grande,

those dotted blue lines are simply the middle of the median line and the 2 outside lines, you find the middle and draw the dotted ones parallel.

Dodo

Noted that daytek. thank you.

EG

I need to revise that wave count I made on GBPJPY.

If price exceeds FE 161.8 @ 226.77, most likely GBPJPY will continue to develop the 5 waves of a Final wave C up for the end of wave 2.

However, if price stays at FE161.8 or lower, then we just finished the wave c @ wave c = wave a 1.618 to finish the zigzag wave 4 up to be followed by a downward move to finish wave 5 down of wave 3.

EG

Happy New Year Everyone!!!!!

As we Meet the New Year...... Here are a bunch of Charts I have drawn for a Potential scenario in 2008 for GBPJPY.

There will be some labellings for both Bearish and for Bullish scenarios. Another technique was added to provided some spice and which allowed me to add reason why I have a Potential Bullish scenario for GBPJPY for 2008.

First of all, if you look at the monthly and the weekly charts, we see that GBPJPY is in the following wave counts:
Monthly - Wave C of Wave 4 W4.C
Weekly - Wave 4 of Wave C W4.C.4
Daily - Here is where this pair is potentially in a decveloping Wave 5 up W4.C.5.3

Wave 2 in Wave C of the monthly Wave 4 shows a sideways expannsion.

By the rule of alternation, we expect wave 4 to be a sharp Zigzag. We see that wave 4 has actually made a 3 wave decline as a very sharp zigzag from the 251.07 down to 219.31

And if you examine it, 219.31 is very near the range where the previous sub wave 4 of the Wave 3 of same degree is located. It has achieved more than 38.2% retracement of Wave 3 of same degree.

Next is, if this decline is considered as only Wave A or the first leg of a bigger Zigzag wave which could extend down to 50-61.8% retracement of wave 3 of same degree, then I would think that this will deviate from the Rules and Guidelines set for Corrective waves.

In my swirling mind..... I should expect a 5 part structured wave as the 1st leg of the wave A of the wave 4. Instead, I see a 3 part structured wave A. In this case, if we are still expecting a wave B, then if wave A is a Zigzag, then wave B should either be a FLAT or a Triangle. Examining the chart again..... I do not see a FLAT or a Triangle developing.

Besides, if a FLAT is still expected to develop based on the wave A we already have, then it is unlikely that we will see a Zigzag wave for this wave 4.

However, if the ascent from 219.31 to 241.35 is considered as a Triangle B, then I can only be convinced that we GBPJPY is still developing a bigger Zigzag wave if it goes lower than 219.31 which is the previous Low.

But based on what I see on my charts now, I see the Potential of a Bullish Scenario for GBPJPY where the 219.31 can be considered as the end of wave 4.


So, while many or the majority think that GBPJPY is going down the tube towards 210 or lower, I will rock the boat by presenting this Potential BULLISH Scenario for GBPJPY in 2008.

Remember that the Bullish scenario can only be set aside if price goes lower than 219.31

EG

additional charts

GBPJPY Update

Could this be the Reversal that I am looking for?

Price has not touched the 222.67 level which I was looking for based on the trendline Support and the potential price action on the 0123 Triangulation.

Looking at the EW count, there is a potential to sonsider that last down move to 223.16 as still possibly the bottom of that Wave C down.

It is 49 pips away from my initial target from where I expect to enter my Long trade.

Price may be in a sub wave 1 up now and may still retrace for the sub wave 2 down.


May we all have a profitable trade as we enter Year 2008.

EG

I just closed my Initial Long trade for a small profit as price started coming down.

I am looking at a 5 wave structure up as being finished for sub wave 1 and will be looking at 61.8-86.4% retracement for wave 2 before entering a new Long trade. with SL at 223.15

EG

watch price action.

what may have been end of sub wave 1 resulted in a Pin Bar.

now watching potential support levels as possible turning point to end wave 2 down and proceed with what I think should be wave 3 UP.

EG