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The Holy Grail - Found

  • #261
  • Dec 16, 2007 11:21pm Dec 16, 2007 11:21pm
Quoting Craig
I'd really like to believe the story at the start of this thread but it falls victim to it's own premises. Like the vendors he correctly maligns, he offers zero proof of anything, yet here we are busting our brains trying to pull each sentence apart in the hope of uncovering some golden key, running once again on faith and hope. If there is one immutable truth in trading, it is nobody is going to help you, you have to figure it out for yourself. You might not always get what you pay for, but you certainly get nothing for nothing.
amen.
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  • #262
  • Edited Dec 17, 2007 1:05am Dec 16, 2007 11:41pm | Edited Dec 17, 2007 1:05am
okay!
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  • #263
  • Edited Dec 17, 2007 1:20am Dec 16, 2007 11:56pm | Edited Dec 17, 2007 1:20am
Quoting blueruby
The question is, "what happens next?"

So, our BIG player wants to be short, and they've gone short, let's say, a couple billion dollars worth. I'm certain it would take at least that to hold the G/U for two days, probably more like 100's of billions.

So if big trader is short a few billion units, and the price finally starts to fall, it doesn't hurt him any to buy back 100 million, and pick up millions of dollars profit on the short, without even diminshing the position significantly. So he buys it back as it comes, taking partial profit and halting downward price movement.....
Smooth analysis,
I'm learning more off this thread than I would have hoped for. Now, I'm wondering what aspect of this motion is John W's system exploiting? Where in the buy/sell of the big power is this bounce/bounce and pierce effect coming in?
  • #264
  • Dec 16, 2007 11:58pm Dec 16, 2007 11:58pm
For somebody who made such a song and dance about not using indicators, he sure uses a lot of 'arcane indicators', what a bunch of crap.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #265
  • Dec 17, 2007 12:37am Dec 17, 2007 12:37am
Quoting jjk2
this brought tears to my eyes. joke. but really, i wish i had read something like this earli....oh wait i did but i was naive, and went the indicator route.

6 month after i began forex, i came to this same painful realization.

i have committed myself to absolute wasting of time until a month ago, in searching for the perfect indicator/system/book/methodology. What i ignored was the logic, common sense, and most importantly the truth!

im glad i never spent any money on those books and recordings (all pirated god bless bitorrent and eMule, 5 gigs of uselss ebooks).

im glad i stopped myself from going to useless seminars.

most expensive of all is the time, concentration and effort that went into the process of realization.

i guess its just a phase we have to go through.
This is the story of Dorothy in the Land of FX. She only wants to go home. She follows the Yellow Brick Chart, searching highs and lows. Along the way she befriends Stochastic Man, Cowardly MACD, and Bollinger (he only wants a brain).

Eventually she finds herself in Grail City, home of the wise and powerful Guru. Alas, she learns the mighty Guru is only a punkass internet geek living in his mom's basement with a flashy website selling worthless ebooks. Just as she loses all hope of ever returning home, Glinda the good witch of FF appears before her and says "Dorothy, you've always possessed the ability to return home any time you chose to do so."
Dorothy, wiping away a tear exclaims, "WTF?" :surprised
"Yes." chuckles Glinda, "Don't you remember your Ruby PA Slippers? Simply tap them together three times and say to yourself, there's no action like price action...there's no action like price action.....................there's.........

no......

place..........

like ..........................

..........................................home."
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  • #266
  • Dec 17, 2007 1:06am Dec 17, 2007 1:06am
Quoting opie999
This is the story of Dorothy in the Land of FX. She only wants to go home. She follows the Yellow Brick Chart, searching highs and lows. Along the way she befriends Stochastic Man, Cowardly MACD, and Bollinger (he only wants a brain).

Eventually she finds herself in Grail City, home of the wise and powerful Guru. Alas, she learns the mighty Guru is only a punkass internet geek living in his mom's basement with a flashy website selling worthless ebooks. Just as she loses all hope of ever returning home, Glinda the good witch of FF appears before her and says "Dorothy, you've always possessed the ability to return home any time you chose to do so."
Dorothy, wiping away a tear exclaims, "WTF?" :surprised
"Yes." chuckles Glinda, "Don't you remember your Ruby PA Slippers? Simply tap them together three times and say to yourself, there's no action like price action...there's no action like price action.....................there's.........

no......

place..........

like ..........................

..........................................home."
i think dorotthys hot.
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  • #267
  • Dec 17, 2007 1:09am Dec 17, 2007 1:09am
...way.
  • #268
  • Dec 17, 2007 1:14am Dec 17, 2007 1:14am
Quoting Skunny
Okay, picture this.......

The reason for this isn't any of the above, it is a result of a move needing to complete itself before it moved in the opposite direction. Have you heard the term false break out? There is no such thing, traders use this term to describe how they got bent on a trade.

Do I have anyones attention?
Skunny,

You and Blueruby seem to be throwing out some pearls here. There are those of us who are listening, keep tossing scraps. We're not looking to be fed, just to know how the food 's being cooked.

Example: It wasn't until this thread that I didn't understand 'more buyers than sellers' was a farce, now I'm getting it.

Throw out a source, a thread, anything. I'm starting to see and my old glasses are just gettin' in the way.
  • #269
  • Dec 17, 2007 1:15am Dec 17, 2007 1:15am
Quoting JohnW
OK folks!


I have received tons of requests for this, so rather than reply to each and every one, I have decided to post it here for all to read. I DO have indicators on my chart, but I don't use them for entry or exit. They are just for weak confirmation. My advice is take what I have written and adjust it for yourself. Think about what you should do and why.

This is just a first draft. Again I stress that the only way to teach someone to trade is person to person, with the trading platform up live.

So Angler, have fun with this. To all, this is my Xmas gift to the forum. As with all trading methods, it is a work in progress.

To Skunny, thanks for continuing this in a more FF-friendly fashion. Once traders realize that PA with S/R is all you really need, they are on the way to consistent profits.

I will continue to develop the .doc file complete with examples (Look at any 30M chart covering 5 days and you will see some). Some of those who received this earlier had great suggestions which will be incorporated in the final document, but my work here is done.

My objective was to get student traders give up the idea that some vendor claiming 1000's of pips has an indicator that will make you rich (the holy grail). The fact is each and every one of you have the holy grail within, and you can not buy it. All you need to do is THINK and exercise discipline.

So yes, using "Holy Grail" in the thread title did have a purpose - to grab your attention and push you in th direction of considering trading off of PA only and realizing that most system vendors are rat bastards looking to fleece you out of your money (after many tries, I have no experience with system vendor that trades profitably, and I would really like to meet at least one).

Happy Holidays to all and best wishes for the new year. Cast off the chains of lagging indicators and be profitable. Be ever so grateful for this forum and those who run it (Merlin?) for providing a vehicle to stimulate thought. I can not overemphasize the benefits realized from reading posts at FF and thinking about them.


On my chart I have MACD, 50EMA (close), 100EMA (close), and PSAR (default parameters on MT4). I use these indicators only as weak guides. I do not use them for entry or exit.

Daily chart

First, I determine the trend and bias on the daily chart. If you can’t see a trend on the daily chart, then pick another pair. Bias is up if the 50EMA is above the 100EMA. I like to see up bias along with an uptrend. If trend matches bias on the daily chart, go to the 30M chart. I only trade in the direction of the trend on the daily chart.


30M Chart

All trades are taken off the 30M chart. I look for S/R levels. S/R levels are determined from trend lines and swing points (stop and reverse levels). The more times an S/R level is hit and price reverses from it, the stronger it is. So, if the daily trend is up, I look for a strong resistance level with more than one hit (preferably separated by 8 hours) and reverse over the course of 2-3 days. I place a buy order above that level regardless of where the 30M EMA's or PSAR are, what the MACD says, or whether there is any divergence or not. If these other indicators confirm, then I feel a slightly more confident in the trade. If not, I don't worry. I also look for S/R from stop & reverse levels that are close to S/R from trend lines. If price breaks both in a move, I will not place a TP, but instead close the trade near the end of London. I use a 30-pip SL, and I target 20 pips for all trades except the AUD/USD and USD/CAD. For these I use 10 pips. I typically place orders after 00:00GMT (5:00PM EST) so that I can catch moves during the London session. My stop orders are spread +2 pips from the S/R level. Only enter the market using stop orders. My logic is this: if there is a resistance point in a long term uptrend, who is going to break that resistance? Stronger traders, that's who. Where do all the self-proclaimed gurus tell you to place stop loss orders? Beyond S/R levels. Think that large traders will run those stops? Yes, they will. More often than not (>90%) you will get the 20 pips.
scalping....so much for the suspense -_-

but i enjoyed the discussions on this thread.

so all good i guess.
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  • #270
  • Edited 1:34am Dec 17, 2007 1:22am | Edited 1:34am
Quoting opie999
Along the way she befriends Stochastic Man, Cowardly MACD, and Bollinger (he only wants a brain).

there's.........

no......

place..........

like ..........................

..........................................home."



Funniest post ever.

Yeah, and Judy Garland was my first crush. Good thing Dark Side of the Moon came along or the part of the population that didn't take Econ would have never made any sense of that film.
  • #271
  • Edited 3:03am Dec 17, 2007 2:46am | Edited 3:03am
thanks john, a 90% hit rate with your stop 50% bigger than your losses is infact a holy grail with a profit factor of 6 ,assuming your stop level and profit are net including spread. Although we dont have proof of your results claim, anyone with a moderate amount of experience can vouch for what happens when a 2 or 3 touch Support/ resistence level is broken. Combine that with Your multiple time frame trend bias and 90% sounds pretty reasonable. Add in your trendline confluence break that will get you the occasional big win and voila! the grail is found!

what happens when everyone trades this way? will the big dogs go back for our 30 pip stops before continuing?
Probably should have kept your mouth shut - lol
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  • #272
  • Dec 17, 2007 6:20am Dec 17, 2007 6:20am
There's no way everybody trade like this, this is not Holly Grail, is just one of the possible ways, some little people will try it and find it usefull, some people will try it and find it unusefull, and some people have yet trowed this to the bin without giving it a chance.

Will the big dogs that move the chunks of capital try to trade like this? I really doubt it... no worries, there's enough for everybody.
Ado Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right.
  • #273
  • Dec 17, 2007 6:28am Dec 17, 2007 6:28am
This is a very novel concept for a strategy. If you think about it, we are doing the same thing all the victims of stop hunts are doing. We are placing buy stop orders, say above resistance, just like they are. The only difference lies in our quick exit after some pips, where they would stay in until it turns so far against them they close or are stopped out. To think you can be so consistent while doing everything the "pack" is doing but with a slight modification shows the beauty and diversity of forex strategies.

Again want to thank John for posting this and everyone else who has helped further knowledge on this thread...now let's all get practicing!
  • #274
  • Dec 17, 2007 9:05am Dec 17, 2007 9:05am
Quoting ICED
"First, I determine the trend and bias on the daily chart"


I'm confused, if the trend is up isn't bias also up?

Thanks
Not necessarily. Many people will use bias as a trend indicator, but nothing beats looking at a chart from a distance of about 5 feet. If you can't see a trend there, pick another pair.
Chance favors the prepared
  • #275
  • Dec 17, 2007 9:22am Dec 17, 2007 9:22am
Most would call the intermediate trend or trend on a lower timeframe what you refer to as bias. Or put another words bias = trend. But call it what you want.

I was told once I didn't know the difference between a retracement and a correction (which is defined by a move in the other direction by at least 10%). They thought differently. It is the internet age after all.
  • #276
  • Dec 17, 2007 9:49am Dec 17, 2007 9:49am
John & Sun, thanks for the info.
  • #277
  • Dec 17, 2007 9:50am Dec 17, 2007 9:50am
Quoting JohnW
nothing beats looking at a chart from a distance of about 5 feet. If you can't see a trend there, pick another pair.
So is that with about 200-300 daily bars on the chart?
  • #278
  • Edited 9:33pm Dec 17, 2007 2:57pm | Edited 9:33pm
John, could you post an example?

It needn't be one of your trades, just an example of your criteria being met on a chart. I'm interested and am having a bit of difficulty grasping specifically what you are referring to, so finding it has been even more difficult.

A visual aid would be helpful. I'm not looking for a grail, I want to refine my style and I'm into this type of price action is all. I think it will move me further along in understanding how the big boys play.
  • #279
  • Dec 17, 2007 4:59pm Dec 17, 2007 4:59pm
Quoting FXNorm
You're saying that playing breakouts for 10 - 20 pips will produce 97 winners out of every 100? Hmmmmmmmm I wanna see this. I think we've been had folks
Like you I am skeptical. So many ridiculous claims on this forum with no evidence to support them

However, its not quite as easy as trading every breakout, but rather,
breakouts, in the direction of the daily trend, after a 2 or 3 touch resisitence/support level is formed over an 8 hour period. I think it is likely that given those conditions that most trades would easily reach target although such trades require a little effort and patience to find. A thread dedicated to the search for these conditions would be helpful. Your right though, there is no proof as yet and this mayby just another false alarm
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  • #280
  • Dec 17, 2007 9:47pm Dec 17, 2007 9:47pm
Well, I just took a trade on gbp/jpy trendline break for 20 pips and it worked from 228.82 to 229.03 for 21 pips at no time did the price go below entry. Just a simple scalp.

the trend and bias aren't correct , plus gbp/jpy shouldn't be played, but what the hell. The play was over in 10 minutes and was painless
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