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bringin sexy back - stochastics

  • #1,561
  • Dec 17, 2007 1:02am Dec 17, 2007 1:02am
Hi Sexies
The Dow weekly chart has just Given a short entry signal complete with a Reversal candle formation and a head and shoulders chart pattern. I cant post a chart atm but I just wanted it on record that the highest probability, for the next longer term move, for equities and therefore carry trades, is down according to the sexystoch indicator.
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  • #1,562
  • Dec 17, 2007 2:09am Dec 17, 2007 2:09am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Hi Sexies
The Dow weekly chart has just Given a short entry signal complete with a Reversal candle formation and a head and shoulders chart pattern. I cant post a chart atm but I just wanted it on record that the highest probability, for the next longer term move, for equities and therefore carry trades, is down according to the sexystoch indicator.
It's just a feeling but i think this week will be just like the stoch shows, down on equities, and bullish on yen and $
  • #1,563
  • Dec 17, 2007 3:01am Dec 17, 2007 3:01am
Dear Jont,

Your idea of using BBs as the context/environment in which to frame a boxing trade seems a good one, and thank you: when the BBs are flat and or narrow then stay away from trades; when they are widening and/or directional then apply the oscillator. Am I understanding you correctly? I don't, though, understand your explanation about shorter term timeframes building bigger timeframes (I've read Spud's thread) in a way that is useful to filtering good boxing trades from bad. In short, how does one really jibe timeframes with boxing? Then again, perhaps one doesn't need to if the stoch. look is good enough? Your thoughts? Melpheos? MACDoug?

Thanks very much,

Lenoxer
  • #1,564
  • Dec 17, 2007 4:31am Dec 17, 2007 4:31am
  •  jont
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Catch the fire and catch the wave | 27 Posts
I have to agree with MAC.Doug that the larger time frame are important for trend and direction, though I go right down to the 1 minute for entry.
I am presently watching Bollingers DVDs to find out more about his strategies. But basically when it is flat and narrow it is a sign of consolidation.
Powerful means of SL and exit as well.
  • #1,565
  • Dec 17, 2007 4:35am Dec 17, 2007 4:35am
  •  jont
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Catch the fire and catch the wave | 27 Posts
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Hi Sexies
The Dow weekly chart has just Given a short entry signal complete with a Reversal candle formation and a head and shoulders chart pattern. I cant post a chart atm but I just wanted it on record that the highest probability, for the next longer term move, for equities and therefore carry trades, is down according to the sexystoch indicator.
Good to have some clear trends for a change in GJ. What we need is the stock market to go down in US (Yen strengthen) and some bad business news in UK and Europe
  • #1,566
  • Dec 17, 2007 4:57am Dec 17, 2007 4:57am
Quoting Lenoxer
Dear Jont,
Then again, perhaps one doesn't need to if the stoch. look is good enough? Your thoughts? Melpheos? MACDoug?Lenoxer
I agree with the Bollinger observation. A stoch signal + bollinger breakout after a squeeze is good for getting a bigger move
as for mtf, sexystoch already has the longer time frame built in, visible on one chart. Much simpler than spuds mtf stochs
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  • #1,567
  • Dec 17, 2007 6:01am Dec 17, 2007 6:01am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I agree with the Bollinger observation. A stoch signal + bollinger breakout after a squeeze is good for getting a bigger move
as for mtf, sexystoch already has the longer time frame built in, visible on one chart. Much simpler than spuds mtf stochs

I was experimenting with bollinger bands and stochastic over weekend and I what I find here, what telepaty or something that binds us all together ))

It would be good to use Bollinger B to determine consolidation period, when they get real narrow, I tride to insert one EMA to determine consolidation period - when EMA is inside BB = consolidation but I am not so sure it would work, what exactly would be start of consolidation and what would be end,
maybe boxing the values when BB gets narrow??? any more ideas?

Maybe John Carter's squeeze would be an idea to use to recognize consolidation? (BB inside Keltner channel)
  • #1,568
  • Dec 17, 2007 7:26am Dec 17, 2007 7:26am
  •  jont
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Catch the fire and catch the wave | 27 Posts
Quoting Ahil

Maybe John Carter's squeeze would be an idea to use to recognize consolidation? (BB inside Keltner channel)
Great Ahil
Can you describe John Carter's squeeze?
  • #1,569
  • Dec 17, 2007 7:41am Dec 17, 2007 7:41am
Squeeze is when Bollinger Bands get inside Keltner Channel - in short

What values for both you should use, hmm dont know you should experiment

here is explanation in more details

from

http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2006...ing_volat.html
For students of Bollinger Bands, periods of low volatility are identified as the times when the bands “move closer together.” This is always great in hindsight, but in real time, how does a trader know that the current narrowness is really narrow enough to qualify as low volatility? This setup answers that question by adding the Keltner Channels as well as a momentum index oscillator.
John Carter (Mar 9, 2006 11:49:58 AM)
For readers who are unaware of how these indicators work, I’ll take a few moments to explain them here. Bollinger Bands are a type of envelope that is plotted at standard deviation levels above and below a moving average. This produces an effect of having the bands widen during periods of higher volatility and contract during less volatile periods. During periods of lower volatility, in sideways moving markets, the bands contract toward the moving average. Keltner Channels are based on a standard moving average. The actual band lines are offset by a positive and negative standard deviation value from the central moving average value, to provide upper and lower bands. While the Bollinger Bands expand and contract as the markets alter between periods of high and low volatility, the Keltner Channels stay in more of a steady range.
John Carter (Mar 9, 2006 11:51:54 AM)
The quiet periods I’m looking for are identified when the Bollinger Bands narrow in width to the point that they are actually trading inside of the Keltner Channels. This marks a period of reduced volatility and signals that the market is taking a significant breather, building up steam for its next move. The trade signal occurs when the Bollinger Bands then move back outside the Keltner Channels
  • #1,570
  • Dec 17, 2007 7:44am Dec 17, 2007 7:44am
John Carter (Mar 9, 2006 11:52:47 AM)
I use a 12-period momentum index oscillator to determine whether to go long or short. If the oscillator is above zero when this happens, I go long; if it is below zero, I go short. These are all canned studies that come with most charting packages. For the parameters, I just use the default settings on TradeStation. These readings are 20 and1.5 for the Keltner Channels and 20 and 2 for the Bollinger Bands. I also took an extra step and turned all these into an indicator which makes it easier to read on the chart, which I explain in a moment.

------------
this was long, but interesting if you want to read it all.

Now it is system for self, but if you take only squeeze without momentum to indentify buy or sell signal we could use it as indicator for consolidation period and avoid getting in on stoch signals, or at least that is my idea for now.
  • #1,571
  • Edited 9:59am Dec 17, 2007 9:19am | Edited 9:59am
A trade i'm in right now

I took the trade off the M5 but i'm sure at 100% that there is a signal on M15.

You can see clearly the consolidation before the next drop. It is 10 candle long which is enough for a signal to appear on the next TF (around 4 M15 candles)

I missed all previous signal that was very good too because i was in my car driving from a customer

Edit : closed à +55... This was a major move and i'm expecting a retrace.
Edit2 : retracing now ^^...
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  • #1,572
  • Dec 18, 2007 1:38am Dec 18, 2007 1:38am
Frustrating... several losses in a row. and BB were expanding...
  • #1,573
  • Dec 18, 2007 2:36am Dec 18, 2007 2:36am
Quoting maccavity
Frustrating... several losses in a row. and BB were expanding...
Show us the setup you have taken
  • #1,574
  • Edited 9:55am Dec 18, 2007 4:20am | Edited 9:55am
2 trades i'm in

USDCAD entry was good (+26 atm) but i have taken a not very good entry on EURYEN (-6 atm)

We will see how they ends

Whoa : +40 on the usdcad, i was not expecting such a move... Nothing on euryen :-/ I'll wait a bit more for this one before closing if there is no move and raise sl on usdcad

edit : +35 closed on usdcad i'll go to lunch soon there will be probably a small pullback. Euryen is starting to move upward ^^
edit2 : closed +30 on euryen it was not showing any strenght to go higher...
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  • #1,575
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:25am Dec 18, 2007 11:25am
Another great move, i missed it as i was not paying attention at that time of the day and i had no access remotly to my home pc
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  • #1,576
  • Dec 18, 2007 3:12pm Dec 18, 2007 3:12pm
Here they are. It's clearly seen that this strategy has a sense...but I am doing something wrong...
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  • #1,577
  • Dec 18, 2007 3:37pm Dec 18, 2007 3:37pm
Quoting maccavity
Here they are. It's clearly seen that this strategy has a sense...but I am doing something wrong...
The 1st one should have been a gain of minimum 5 pips, you had at a given time around 25 pips and you should have move your SL to +5 or +10

The 2nd one should have been a BE even...

Your entries was good but the management of the trade was poor.
  • #1,578
  • Dec 20, 2007 12:26am Dec 20, 2007 12:26am
Quoting melpheos
Ok here is my bundle with the indicators and expert i use and my current template.

Hope you will appreciate it.

! Note that the settings for my indicator are not general and must be change depending on the TF and the pair you look at !
I have been trying to get up to speed on this system for the last couple of days and I think I have a fair grasp of the concept. Could you be a little more specific as to what settings need to be adjusted for different tf's/pairs ?
  • #1,579
  • Dec 20, 2007 9:09am Dec 20, 2007 9:09am
Quoting orion70
I have been trying to get up to speed on this system for the last couple of days and I think I have a fair grasp of the concept. Could you be a little more specific as to what settings need to be adjusted for different tf's/pairs ?
The only settings i would suggest to change are
Medium stoch speed filter
Slow stoch speed filter
MA filter period
and MA speed filter

I will make a big screenshot with the different settings as making a guide takes too long
  • #1,580
  • Dec 20, 2007 9:59am Dec 20, 2007 9:59am
Quoting melpheos
The only settings i would suggest to change are
Medium stoch speed filter
Slow stoch speed filter
MA filter period
and MA speed filter

I will make a big screenshot with the different settings as making a guide takes too long
Thanks...appreciate it.
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