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haniam's anti Big Dogs trades

  • #301
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:17am Nov 9, 2007 5:17am
Well it is not your Internet connection. Connection is your enemy number 3...

If you lose your connection, you may connect from another ISP, or go to an Internet cafe, or ask help from your neighbor...

It is not you, you are your enemy number 2!

It not the other trader, he does not really care about you...

Big Dogs of course. But specifically, your broker comes first in the list. Why?
Because he not only manipulate the price, trades generally gainst you, but also may have his servers freeze for enough long time to see your balance blow, your trades triggered or your SL hit, and you can meanwhile do nothing!

Here's an example just happened with me with one of the broker I deal with.
He got his servers freeze (Intentionally???, not the first time!!) just before currencies new break (EU, UJ...) for more than 40 minutes!

Here are the snapshots 10 minutes after bad wrong data provide for 10 minutes, then a freeze for 40 minutes during the main price action, then after prices calmed down...

P.S. This one of the best renown MT4 broker in the USA that says to have non dealing desk.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 071108-BrokerFreeze.gif Size: 18 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 071108-BrokerFreezeAfter.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #302
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:32am Nov 9, 2007 5:32am
Quoting haniam
PL @1.4689, another new YTD high.

Prices are currently over this level and testing the EU all time high.
The down side will not open unless we see a break of 1.4689.

We will probably see a retracement down before a break for new highs.

Strategy for EU:
1- Scalpers can sell the highs targeting 1.4690.

2- Once PL broken, add sell @ 1.4710, 1.4720 with SL @1.4745 targeting 1.4675, 1.4660, 1.4645.

The up trend is still in power until 1.4640 is broken. So keep tight stops.

3- Buy the bounce of 1.4640-50 targeting 1.4685.

4- Sell the break of 1.4639, add @1.4675 targeting 1.4615, 1.4585, 1.4560

Only the break of 1.4555 will open the way for a more decent retrace.

5- Buy the bounce of 1.4555-1.4570 targeting 1.4615, 1.4640, 1.4685
Points 1 and 2 worked well, but the EU seems more and more bullish, making 2 new highs today.

An important retracement do not seem to be on it's way yet, and point 4 and 5 are not yet in view.

Point 3 is now our focus, but I am wondering if prices will go down to test 1.4640-50, being now protected buy 1.4675 support.
We may go for point 3bis and buy some @1.4680-90 targeting 1.4740, add more on a test of 1.4645-60 with SL under 1.4635

Cover at best on 1.4640 break if SL is not hit. We may have a deeper retracement and a better opportunity to go long.
  • #303
  • Nov 12, 2007 12:04am Nov 12, 2007 12:04am
Quoting haniam
Points 1 and 2 worked well, but the EU seems more and more bullish, making 2 new highs today.

An important retracement do not seem to be on it's way yet, and point 4 and 5 are not yet in view.

Point 3 is now our focus, but I am wondering if prices will go down to test 1.4640-50, being now protected buy 1.4675 support.
We may go for point 3bis and buy some @1.4680-90 targeting 1.4740, add more on a test of 1.4645-60 with SL under 1.4635

Cover at best on 1.4640 break if SL is not hit. We may have a deeper retracement and a better opportunity to go long.
On Friday, EU finally broke 1.4640 near London close, opening a breach that will help bears to push EU lower for some recovery. We were able to close all bought positions at BE or a little better to prepare for some quick shorts. Pr

PL @1.4676 and has good chances to be tested again but to bounce prices.
We have an important resistance @1.4540. If breached, it will open way for more down. If bounces, EU will go up to test the new highs again. Prices are now under this level.

Strategy for EU:
1- Sell a bounce of 1.4664-75 level targeting 1.4620, 1.4585, 1.4555 with SL over 1.4715. Cover positions at BE or for some pips if 1.4705 is breached.

It is possible to sell a little at the current prices around 1.4640 with same targets and add more as point 1, mainly if the prices do not go up 15-30 minutes before London open.

2- Buy the bounce of 1.4580, add @1.4545-65 targeting 1.4620,1.4660 and higher with SL under 1.4505. Cover positions at BE or for some pips if 1.4540 is breached.
  • #304
  • Nov 12, 2007 12:46am Nov 12, 2007 12:46am
UJ is still in it's downtrend and has almost tested the important 109.6 support.
If this level is broken, the Monthly will turn to downtrend and this may accelerate later the down move and open much lower targets towards 100-101.65 monthly support levels.

PL @111.18
Resistance levels @110.54, 110.88, 111.35

Strategy for UJ:
1- Sell a little @110.40-50 targeting 109.90, 109.65-70.
2- If 109.6 is breached, sell again more on a retrace up to previous levels.
3- Buy a bounce of 109.65-85 targeting 110.40 with SL under 109.15. Cover at best if 109.60 is breached.
4- Sell a retrace to 111.20-30 same down target with SL over 111.65 covering the position at best if 111.48 is breached.
  • #305
  • Nov 12, 2007 6:18am Nov 12, 2007 6:18am
Quoting haniam
On Friday, EU finally broke 1.4640 near London close, opening a breach that will help bears to push EU lower for some recovery. We were able to close all bought positions at BE or a little better to prepare for some quick shorts. Pr

PL @1.4676 and has good chances to be tested again but to bounce prices.
We have an important resistance @1.4540. If breached, it will open way for more down. If bounces, EU will go up to test the new highs again. Prices are now under this level.

Strategy for EU:
1- Sell a bounce of 1.4664-75 level targeting 1.4620, 1.4585, 1.4555 with SL over 1.4715. Cover positions at BE or for some pips if 1.4705 is breached.

It is possible to sell a little at the current prices around 1.4640 with same targets and add more as point 1, mainly if the prices do not go up 15-30 minutes before London open.

2- Buy the bounce of 1.4580, add @1.4545-65 targeting 1.4620,1.4660 and higher with SL under 1.4505. Cover positions at BE or for some pips if 1.4540 is breached.
All entry point hit and target reached today for EU.
We have now open bought positions from 1.4580 and 1.4550 targeting 1.4590, 1.4610 and 1.4630.
  • #306
  • Nov 12, 2007 6:45am Nov 12, 2007 6:45am
Quoting haniam
UJ is still in it's downtrend and has almost tested the important 109.6 support.
If this level is broken, the Monthly will turn to downtrend and this may accelerate later the down move and open much lower targets towards 100-101.65 monthly support levels.

PL @111.18
Resistance levels @110.54, 110.88, 111.35

Strategy for UJ:
1- Sell a little @110.40-50 targeting 109.90, 109.65-70.
2- If 109.6 is breached, sell again more on a retrace up to previous levels.
3- Buy a bounce of 109.65-85 targeting 110.40 with SL under 109.15. Cover at best if 109.60 is breached.
4- Sell a retrace to 111.20-30 same down target with SL over 111.65 covering the position at best if 111.48 is breached.
All target reached for point 1.
109.6 was breached from the first attempt, opening the way down.
You should have sold more on the retrace @109.9 (Support became resistance)
Point 3 was void since point 2 was executed, and if you bought, you should have covered at best.
Point 4 was not achieved.
  • #307
  • Nov 12, 2007 7:13am Nov 12, 2007 7:13am
haniam,

do you think the current carry trade unwind will continue and reach the levels seen in july-august ?

if that's the case, now's a good time to buy cheap usd/chf ?
  • #308
  • Nov 12, 2007 10:30am Nov 12, 2007 10:30am
Quoting haniam
All entry point hit and target reached today for EU.
We have now open bought positions from 1.4580 and 1.4550 targeting 1.4590, 1.4610 and 1.4630.
You should be out of EU for the moment, since the EU bounced from 1.4545 to 1.4580, then went back and breached 1.4540 then bounced to 1.4555. To Opportunities to take some profit and get out of positions with minimal loss.

We have now a way down to 1.4490, 1.4425, 1.4360
Next important daily resistance @1.4305-20 (trendline) and 1.4240-60 areas that may give a good opportunity to go long if prices bounces here. If the last area is broken, then we will see a recovery for under 1.40 area.
  • #309
  • Nov 12, 2007 10:55am Nov 12, 2007 10:55am
I am going to Jordan tomorrow for 8 days. I will be visiting the country, so I don't think I will be able to follow the market and trade.

By now, if you where following my anti-Big Dogs trades since the beginning, you should be now familiar with my trading style and be able to trade well enough to get dozen of pips per week at least.

I would be glad when I return to see that some of you have posted some daily analysis and the result of the trades you did during my absence.

This would encourage me to go further in my Journal; else I would maybe discontinue my postings here and find something different that would interest and help more the traders in this forum.

Regards,

Hani
  • #310
  • Nov 12, 2007 11:18am Nov 12, 2007 11:18am
Have a nice holiday Hani !
  • #311
  • Nov 12, 2007 12:38pm Nov 12, 2007 12:38pm
Hello Haniam have a great trip and I will wait to see Your postings for Euro/Us,they are so precise,sometimes I think You have a crystal ball
but TL ,PP and Fibos can make possible to see targets.
I did not arrive to the point that I can do analysis but one they I help You !
Zuzia 9
  • #312
  • Nov 14, 2007 1:13pm Nov 14, 2007 1:13pm
Please keep up the great work...very much appreciated
  • #313
  • Nov 27, 2007 2:49am Nov 27, 2007 2:49am
han

are you back from your holiday
  • #314
  • Nov 27, 2007 4:25am Nov 27, 2007 4:25am
Quoting dash129
han
Quoting dash129

are you back from your holiday


Welcome dash129 to the thread!

Yes I am back from my holiday.

I notice nobody did post any kind of analysis during my absence; so I conclude that nobody is really interested by the methods I use here and readers are more searching for 'Tips' on what to trade to get some pips.

This is my journal, I know, but I created it with the intention of helping traders to be better traders not to be a kind of signal provider or analysis poster.

I think I will discontinue posting in this thread unless to reply to questions since I am not really seeing it has an important value to traders v/s the time it takes for me to do so and the trades I miss by doing it.

Thank you for your interest and hope the informations in this thread can help you in a way.

Regards,

Hani
  • #315
  • Nov 27, 2007 8:50am Nov 27, 2007 8:50am
Hi Hani

Firstly welcome back from your break. Hope you had a nice time !

Secondly, I'm sorry that you are discontinuing your journal. I have found it useful and educational. I certainly did not treat it as a signal service and appreciate the time and effort you put into it. I am glad that you will continue to answer questions here and that itself is good enough for me. I came here to learn about how the 'big dogs ' operate and I thank you for your insights into the subject.

Regards,
Lee
  • #316
  • Dec 15, 2007 3:20am Dec 15, 2007 3:20am
When most traders are being used to go long on dips, the EU suddenly broke all previous supports hitting so many stop losses that it continued to go deeper and deeper.

We had on Friday an important breach of the daily trendline and supports, opening the way to some important retracement of EU in the coming 2 weeks, down to 1.4290, 1.4115, 1.3940 and even lower to the weekly trendline around 1.3850.

I expect first a retrace from the current 1.4420 level up to 1.4560-80 and eventually 1.4640-60 and 1.4740-60. These level should more be considered as an opportunity to go short more than a resume of the up move. I expect some bull traps in the coming days, a BD strategy to take as many $ as possible from small traders.

The down move can be easily expected at these periods since lots of BD are going to close their long positions and take their huge profits for the close of the year.

Remember that all these trades are counter trend trades and the trend is up and will not be considered as reversed unless 1.36 is firmly broken.

This is only a major retrace in the bigger uptrend and the safe way would be to search for a good support to buy from (Previous mentioned targets should constitute a good buying opportunities)

Safe trading to all,

Hani
  • #317
  • Edited 9:18am Dec 15, 2007 8:51am | Edited 9:18am
hi haniam, i hope u keep updating your thread, if only i knew this thread from september
  • #318
  • Dec 17, 2007 1:47am Dec 17, 2007 1:47am
Quote:
Flip your monitor upside down.

hi haniam. It's been a great thread you had posted in here. Well, I had a mind of yours about who is exactly BD. But I skipped that already, because we need to schedule our trades now. It's not 80s era where a trend is A Trend. So we are doing hit and run trades right now. It's too many noise for nowadays chart. Not only EU but all of them. This is because the players who get inside is getting many, along with BD's community is also getting many. What I can give advice is just follow the wave (not the trend), what you had in your mind, just keep it. We can't fight them. http://forum.fxopen.com/images/smilies/smile.gif

Hit and run trades are common inside the small trader’s community.
It has the advantage of taking quick profits or losses in a small amount of time. The major issue here is to be able to get more profits than losses. Following the waves is in fact following a smaller trend in a smaller time frame. Taking the 'waves' in the way of the trend would eventually be the best way to use these techniques (In the case of EU, it would be to ride the up waves).

Many traders fell into the trap of getting lot of small profits only to lose all and more in a big loss. To avoid this, tight stop losses should be always used and strict trading rules always followed in a disciplined manner (Very hard to do for most traders)

BD knows where stops are put, and, from time to time, they take advantage of this to hit all these SL in a sudden move like they did on Friday.

Hit and run trades can make lot of pips if used with big discipline and a proved system. But this is definitely not the way BD trades. They are just still using the 80's style of going with the main trend (Or even creating it as needed) and waiting till the target they put is reached.

All the noises in nowadays charts are created by the small traders and do not really affect big dogs trades.

Safe trade to all,

Hani http://forum.fxopen.com/images/smilies/smile.gif
  • #319
  • Dec 17, 2007 4:37am Dec 17, 2007 4:37am
Quoting haniam
When most traders are being used to go long on dips, the EU suddenly broke all previous supports hitting so many stop losses that it continued to go deeper and deeper.

We had on Friday an important breach of the daily trendline and supports, opening the way to some important retracement of EU in the coming 2 weeks, down to 1.4290, 1.4115, 1.3940 and even lower to the weekly trendline around 1.3850.

I expect first a retrace from the current 1.4420 level up to 1.4560-80 and eventually 1.4640-60 and 1.4740-60. These level should more be considered as an opportunity to go short more than a resume of the up move. I expect some bull traps in the coming days, a BD strategy to take as many $ as possible from small traders.

The down move can be easily expected at these periods since lots of BD are going to close their long positions and take their huge profits for the close of the year.

Remember that all these trades are counter trend trades and the trend is up and will not be considered as reversed unless 1.36 is firmly broken.

This is only a major retrace in the bigger uptrend and the safe way would be to search for a good support to buy from (Previous mentioned targets should constitute a good buying opportunities)

Safe trading to all,

Hani
We had this morning a bullish trap that got many traders taking some stop losses and some buy stop orders before the down move resumes strongly with just some minor retraces.

The first support is in the 1.4290-1.4320 area where some good buys will be attempted, but as the down move seems still strong, watch for the action price before any long position (Double bottom, Doji, price bounce). An extention to the 1.4240-60 area is also possible.

Note that the 50% Fibo is still lower in the 1.41-42 area and the two other targets 1.4115, 1.3940 of the down move are still giving it a good way down in the coming days or weeks. But it may need a retrace up first.

So the best strategy for today is to stay aside of the market, or to buy small with tight stop around 1.4290-1.4320 for a retrace targeting 1.4370, 1.4400
  • #320
  • Dec 17, 2007 5:47am Dec 17, 2007 5:47am
Quoting haniam
We had this morning a bullish trap that got many traders taking some stop losses and some buy stop orders before the down move resumes strongly with just some minor retraces.

The first support is in the 1.4290-1.4320 area where some good buys will be attempted, but as the down move seems still strong, watch for the action price before any long position (Double bottom, Doji, price bounce). An extention to the 1.4240-60 area is also possible.

Note that the 50% Fibo is still lower in the 1.41-42 area and the two other targets 1.4115, 1.3940 of the down move are still giving it a good way down in the coming days or weeks. But it may need a retrace up first.

So the best strategy for today is to stay aside of the market, or to buy small with tight stop around 1.4290-1.4320 for a retrace targeting 1.4370, 1.4400
The retrace already under accomplishment before getting to the mentioned support area.

The previous scenario is momentary void. Will follow price action to determine an eventual good setup.
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