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  • #281
  • Nov 6, 2007 1:21pm Nov 6, 2007 1:21pm
Quoting haniam
No important news today.
Only Bernanke speaks @18:40 GMT is to take into consideration.

EU is under way to test 1.4525-30, but very slowly.
No momentum to break the YTDH. PL @1.4475

Strategy for EU
1- Sell big 1.4520-30 with SL over 1.4550 targeting 1.4500, 1.4475
2- Buy little bounce pf PL targeting 15-20 pips
3- Sell the bounce back of PL break targeting 1.4460, 1.4440, 1.4420.

If 1.4530 breaks (Low probability at first touch), sell the new high targeting 1.4525 and close the old sell at BE
EU revealed today to be more bullish than ever, making new highs again.
These new highs are expected and 1.46 is the next target.

Still, the bullishness is slow and seems to be a controlled one. Letting new highs come slowly slowly.

In the sell side, today was good only for some scalping, and 1.45 should be tested again before new highs. We will see tomorrow better opportunities to trade.
  • #282
  • Nov 6, 2007 1:26pm Nov 6, 2007 1:26pm
Quoting haniam
Until 114.75 and 115 is broken, we have still a bias for the down side in the 113 first. PL @114.44
I don't like to sell this currency even when it is going somehow down.
I prefer to buy it on the dips on bounces.

Strategy for UJ:
1- If you want shorting, sell a bounce of 114.75-90 targeting 114.4, 114.15, 113.85 with SL over 115.20
2- Buy a bounce of 114, 113.75 targeting 114.4, 114.75, 114.95
UJ was good today as mush for selling and for buying as per the plan, a little shy from 114. Tomorrow will probably see some test below 113.
  • #283
  • Edited 11:35pm Nov 6, 2007 11:27pm | Edited 11:35pm
Quoting haniam
EU revealed today to be more bullish than ever, making new highs again.
These new highs are expected and 1.46 is the next target.

Still, the bullishness is slow and seems to be a controlled one. Letting new highs come slowly slowly.

In the sell side, today was good only for some scalping, and 1.45 should be tested again before new highs. We will see tomorrow better opportunities to trade.
1000 and 2000 pips move in few months without an important correction and few months of consolidation is not new for the dollar.

We can see such moves for many times in the past, loocking back on the weekly TF, there's Q4 2004, Q4 2003...

So will 1.4665 be a magic number that will cap the dollar for some retracement to 1.4280 area like it did in the 1.3667 for few time?

So where can the dollar still go?

Well, still few hundred pips up is not difficult, it just have to break my adjusted daily channel around 1.4670-80 then it has the way up to the weekly channel @1.4870-80

Attached the adjusted channels in the daily chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 071107-D1-EU.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #284
  • Nov 6, 2007 11:49pm Nov 6, 2007 11:49pm
I bet lot of traders woke up (Or will wake up) surprised but the sudden move we witnessed few hours ago.

BD strikes again. They were keeping the bull move every time 20-40 pips up until they finally hit the STOPS around 1.4575-90 that inducted the sudden up move reaching the daily CUS. We have now an important gap that have a good chance to be filled in the 24 hours.

PL @1.4583

Strategy for EU:
The EU is still very bull, but I think it will pause for a while.

1- I will take a swing and sell big a new attempt of the highs around 1.4660-70 targeting 1.4585, 1.4550 and 1.4510 with a SL @1.4735 (Don't forget your SL)

2- Will sell a break of 1.46 same targets.

3- I will sell a bounce back of the break of 1.4583 same targets
  • #285
  • Nov 7, 2007 12:00am Nov 7, 2007 12:00am
Quoting haniam
UJ was good today as mush for selling and for buying as per the plan, a little shy from 114. Tomorrow will probably see some test below 113.
UJ is being a better fellow than EU who is being wild.
It is testing now as expected some support in 113 area.
THe big move of EU may have some impact on UJ breaking the support @113.75. PL @114.46

Strategy for UJ:
1- Buy small @113.80 targeting 114.10, 114.25, 114.40 with SL @113.70
2- Buy in the 113.25-40 area targeting 113.70, 114.10, 114.25, 114.40 with SL @113.15
  • #286
  • Nov 7, 2007 12:31am Nov 7, 2007 12:31am
Here's an article from IFR that may explain what happened suddenly for the EU: (A BD play of course!)

"The EUR/USD opened in Asia at 1.4560 after breaking higher during the US session on broad USD weakness spurred on by expectations of more Fed easing.

The EUR/USD barely traded between 1.4555/70 for most of the Asian morning until Reuters reported that a Chinese official adviser made comments suggesting that China should better balance their huge reserves with strong currencies such as the Euro.

The EUR/USD rocketed to 1.4665 triggering stops above 1.4600 and 1.4650 along the way. The Chinese official tried to clarify his comments by suggesting that he wasn"t calling for an acceleration of EUR/USD buying and the EUR/USD fell to 1.4615.

There was decent buying on the dip and the EUR/USD settled between 1.4630/40 for the balance of the session.
Even though analysts say that the Chinese adviser wasn"t signaling a fresh
and accelerated wave of USD diversification, the damage was done.

The EUR/USD is entrenched in a trend higher and judging by the ferocity of the stop loss triggering, the market isn"t that long on balance.

Traders feel that a pullback towards 1.4570 is possible, but should be viewed as a buying opportunity."
  • #287
  • Nov 7, 2007 1:43am Nov 7, 2007 1:43am
Quoting haniam
UJ is being a better fellow than EU who is being wild.
Quoting haniam
It is testing now as expected some support in 113 area.
The big move of EU may have some impact on UJ breaking the support @113.75. PL @114.46

Strategy for UJ:
1- Buy small @113.80 targeting 114.10, 114.25, 114.40 with SL @113.70
2- Buy in the 113.25-40 area targeting 113.70, 114.10, 114.25, 114.40 with SL @113.15


Point 1 (P1) First attempt was shy by 3 pips from the buy, and 5 pips from the TP.

The setup is not anymore valid since it broke 113.76 and if you did not already closed the position you should or bring your SL to BE targeting 114.05

Going for P2 now. If 113.20 is broken (Low probability from the first attempt, so I will buy big targeting 20 pips ant let the rest ride targeting 113.7), it will open the way down to 112.6 and then 112.00-10. Two good opportunities to buy again targeting previous supports.

Remember, UJ is in a down trend targeting 109.60-110 even if pression is always up at supports, so keep your SL

As a from post on Nov.1, 2007:

Monthly: Up since 2005 unless 109.5 support level is broken target 1.31
Weekly: Down but in a recovery situation unless 112 is broken and until 122.7 is broken then trend may change to up
Daily: Down since July 2007. A possible 117.9 break will reverse to up
  • #288
  • Nov 7, 2007 3:08am Nov 7, 2007 3:08am
Quoting haniam
I bet lot of traders woke up (Or will wake up) surprised but the sudden move we witnessed few hours ago.

BD strikes again. They were keeping the bull move every time 20-40 pips up until they finally hit the STOPS around 1.4575-90 that inducted the sudden up move reaching the daily CUS. We have now an important gap that have a good chance to be filled in the 24 hours.

PL @1.4583

Strategy for EU:
The EU is still very bull, but I think it will pause for a while.

1- I will take a swing and sell big a new attempt of the highs around 1.4660-70 targeting 1.4585, 1.4550 and 1.4510 with a SL @1.4735 (Don't forget your SL)

2- Will sell a break of 1.46 same targets.

3- I will sell a bounce back of the break of 1.4583 same targets
EU is on it is eay to test again new highs.
Low probability of break from first attempt, will sell big 1.4660-5 targeting minimum 10 pips for the big part, and let the rest run with SL 1.4675
  • #289
  • Nov 7, 2007 3:25am Nov 7, 2007 3:25am
Quoting haniam
EU is on it is eay to test again new highs.
Low probability of break from first attempt, will sell big 1.4660-5 targeting minimum 10 pips for the big part, and let the rest run with SL 1.4675
Seems probabilities are doing bad now with EU!

It just touched 1.47 bullish target.
The break of 1.4665 is bad. Stay out of EU until it comes back under 1.4665.
  • #290
  • Nov 7, 2007 9:21am Nov 7, 2007 9:21am
Quoting haniam
Seems probabilities are doing bad now with EU!

It just touched 1.47 bullish target.
The break of 1.4665 is bad. Stay out of EU until it comes back under 1.4665.
We may have an opputinity to sell EU since 1.4670 is broken.

1.4665 break will is safer, but I will sell a little @1.4680-85, more on a new attempt of 1.4690-95 targeting 1.4640, 1.4620, 1.4610 and 1.4585

I will add if 1.4705-10 is tested again with SL above 1.4745

The break of 1.4634 will confirm the down move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 071107-M5-EU.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #291
  • Nov 8, 2007 12:04am Nov 8, 2007 12:04am
Quoting haniam
We may have an opportunity to sell EU since 1.4670 is broken.
Quoting haniam

1.4665 break will is safer, but I will sell a little @1.4680-85, more on a new attempt of 1.4690-95 targeting 1.4640, 1.4620, 1.4610 and 1.4585

I will add if 1.4705-10 is tested again with SL above 1.4745

The break of 1.4634 will confirm the down move.

Attachment
After we have been stopped on our first selling attempt during the up trend, we reached yesterday our two first targets of our swing sell trade.

We have a new PL record today @1.4658. Prices are under the PL and this confirms a continuation of the retracement. Prices should go up and test PL again, maybe breaking it for a while up to 1.4680 or higher first. We should go under 1.46 today to retest the new supports @1.4550-60

We will have a ranging prices until 1.4613 breaks and this will confirm the move down.

Strategy for EU:
1- Sell the bounce back of PL, maybe after it breaks up then down then bounce from the don side. Target 1.4620, 1.4600, 1.4590.

The break of 1.4587 will open a new down and an opportunity to resell highs (maybe PL again or even 1.4674) targeting 1.4550, 1.4505

Only the break of 1.4445 will open th way for more down move correction.

2- Buy the bounce of 1.4590-95 targeting 1.4640
Buy the bounce of 1.4550-60 targeting 1.4610-30
Buy the bounce of 1.4500-30 targeting 1.4575

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 071108-M5-EU.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #292
  • Nov 8, 2007 12:21am Nov 8, 2007 12:21am
UJ worked yesterday well enough as per the plan and we are seeing new lows.
Selling this pair would give more pips than buying the bounces, but as you know, I hate selling it since it will give me some red lines in my broker statement that charges me (or gives me) interests by second of position opening.

PL @113.18. We will see a retest of 112.05 again, a bounce, than probably a break after a while. We need a break of 112.5 support first.

Strategy for UJ:
1- Buy a bounce of 112.50-60 targeting 112.8, 113.10 with SL @112.45
2- Sell 113.10-20 targeting 112.60 with SL above 113.45
3- After 112.5 break, sell more at 112.80-113 targeting 112.35, 112.10, 111.40 with SL above 113.45
  • #293
  • Nov 8, 2007 6:13am Nov 8, 2007 6:13am
In have in 30 minutes the interest rate announcement which is expected not to move.

It would be better not to be into a trade before this news, since the EU will get wild for some time, probably going to test again 1.4735-45 before calming down and going back to it's current price.

Aggressive traders may watch the action and sell when prices stabilize targeting 20 pips first then the current prices around 1.4670-80.

Beware new YTD highs attempts. Don't sell blindly. Wait for the first impulsive wave to finish and define some resistance in the high.

If prices go down, just stick to the plan.
  • #294
  • Nov 8, 2007 6:30am Nov 8, 2007 6:30am
Quoting haniam

After we have been stopped on our first selling attempt during the up trend, we reached yesterday our two first targets of our swing sell trade.

We have a new PL record today @1.4658. Prices are under the PL and this confirms a continuation of the retracement. Prices should go up and test PL again, maybe breaking it for a while up to 1.4680 or higher first. We should go under 1.46 today to retest the new supports @1.4550-60

We will have a ranging prices until 1.4613 breaks and this will confirm the move down.

Strategy for EU:
1- Sell the bounce back of PL, maybe after it breaks up then down then bounce from the don side. Target 1.4620, 1.4600, 1.4590.

The break of 1.4587 will open a new down and an opportunity to resell highs (maybe PL again or even 1.4674) targeting 1.4550, 1.4505

Only the break of 1.4445 will open th way for more down move correction.

2- Buy the bounce of 1.4590-95 targeting 1.4640
Buy the bounce of 1.4550-60 targeting 1.4610-30
Buy the bounce of 1.4500-30 targeting 1.4575

Attachment
PL has just break down as predicted. We should watch the prices going up again testing the down side. If it holds and bounces, we may sell as per the plan. The only thing that is worrying me is the ECB annoucement in 15 minutes that will move the market independantly of technical s for some time.

A brak of 1.4638 will confirm the down move to 1.4590-1.4600 and lower.
  • #295
  • Nov 8, 2007 6:38am Nov 8, 2007 6:38am
Quoting haniam
UJ worked yesterday well enough as per the plan and we are seeing new lows.
Selling this pair would give more pips than buying the bounces, but as you know, I hate selling it since it will give me some red lines in my broker statement that charges me (or gives me) interests by second of position opening.

PL @113.18. We will see a retest of 112.05 again, a bounce, than probably a break after a while. We need a break of 112.5 support first.

Strategy for UJ:
1- Buy a bounce of 112.50-60 targeting 112.8, 113.10 with SL @112.45
2- Sell 113.10-20 targeting 112.60 with SL above 113.45
3- After 112.5 break, sell more at 112.80-113 targeting 112.35, 112.10, 111.40 with SL above 113.45
UJ has broken an upper resistance and this triggers a bigger correction of the move up to 114 levels.

Try to close your position at BE or for few pips if you have the occasion before SL is hit.

I am searching now to buy around 112.55-85 targeting 113.70, 113.15, 114.66
  • #296
  • Nov 8, 2007 11:46am Nov 8, 2007 11:46am
Quoting haniam
UJ has broken an upper resistance and this triggers a bigger correction of the move up to 114 levels.

Try to close your position at BE or for few pips if you have the occasion before SL is hit.

I am searching now to buy around 112.55-85 targeting 113.70, 113.15, 114.66
UJ plunged to 112.30-50 level where it is bouncing.
The down move may still extend to 112.05.
So I buy a little here around 112.40 and add more on 112.05-20 targeting 113.15, 113.7, 114.15 and 114.66 with a SL @111.40

The hard SL is a little bit big because this is a swing position and I want to give some room to the currency, but it should be moved to 111.9 if 112.05 is bounces the down move.

If 112 is broken, we will have room to down to 111.6 where it should bounces again. We would buy more here, then close the previous bought positions at BE or for some pips.

These are counter trend positions so protect them as they move and don't hesitate to take progressive gains.
  • #297
  • Nov 8, 2007 12:10pm Nov 8, 2007 12:10pm
Quoting haniam
UJ plunged to 112.30-50 level where it is bouncing.
The down move may still extend to 112.05.
So I buy a little here around 112.40 and add more on 112.05-20 targeting 113.15, 113.7, 114.15 and 114.66 with a SL @111.40

The hard SL is a little bit big because this is a swing position and I want to give some room to the currency, but it should be moved to 111.9 if 112.05 is bounces the down move.

If 112 is broken, we will have room to down to 111.6 where it should bounces again. We would buy more here, then close the previous bought positions at BE or for some pips.

These are counter trend positions so protect them as they move and don't hesitate to take progressive gains.
112.3 is broken and open down to 112.05. I will close my small longs t BE or for some pips to buy again around 112.10 as per the previous.
  • #298
  • Nov 8, 2007 12:30pm Nov 8, 2007 12:30pm
Quoting haniam
PL has just break down as predicted. We should watch the prices going up again testing the down side. If it holds and bounces, we may sell as per the plan. The only thing that is worrying me is the ECB annoucement in 15 minutes that will move the market independantly of technical s for some time.

A brak of 1.4638 will confirm the down move to 1.4590-1.4600 and lower.
For now, we need 1.4660 break to confirm the down move and be able to sell somewhere between 1.4675 and 1.4685 targeting 1.4650, 1.4630.

A break of 1.4624 will open 1.4605, 1.4595
A better break will happen if 1.4591 is broken and will open 1.4555, 1.4525
The real break seems far away for now @1.4510 and will open the way to 1.4455, 1.4385, 1.4305

The full retracement will not start unless 1.4250 level is broken and will open 1.4120, 1.3940, 1.3760 and even 1.3670.

This will take some time to happen and all these levels are subject to change every day, going higher and opening a way to the an inevitable retracement
  • #299
  • Nov 9, 2007 12:00am Nov 9, 2007 12:00am
PL @1.4689, another new YTD high.

Prices are currently over this level and testing the EU all time high.
The down side will not open unless we see a break of 1.4689.

We will probably see a retracement down before a break for new highs.

Strategy for EU:
1- Scalpers can sell the highs targeting 1.4690.

2- Once PL broken, add sell @ 1.4710, 1.4720 with SL @1.4745 targeting 1.4675, 1.4660, 1.4645.

The up trend is still in power until 1.4640 is broken. So keep tight stops.

3- Buy the bounce of 1.4640-50 targeting 1.4685.

4- Sell the break of 1.4639, add @1.4675 targeting 1.4615, 1.4585, 1.4560

Only the break of 1.4555 will open the way for a more decent retrace.

5- Buy the bounce of 1.4555-1.4570 targeting 1.4615, 1.4640, 1.4685
  • #300
  • Nov 9, 2007 12:24am Nov 9, 2007 12:24am
We are still in a downtrend until 117 is breached.

The buy bounce on support level is doing great in UJ, as carry traders take the opportunity to add to their positions at these levels, even if this is counter trend trading, it is giving hundred of pips every day.

Just don't forget your SL and to cover your positions when supports are broken then to open them on the next support.

112.05 is still holding and the next important supports are 111.60, then 110.35 and 109.6.

PL @112.7

Strategy for UJ:
1- Buy @112.05-25 targeting 112.70, 113.15, 113.70 and 114.15.
Close the position at BE or for some pips if 112 is touched to buy again @111.60-80 same targets.

2- Sell a retrace to 114.30-60 area targeting 113.85, 113.50, 113.10
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