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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #221
  • Dec 14, 2007 3:07pm Dec 14, 2007 3:07pm
THERE IS A 100% WINNING WAY TO TRADE
But you'll never do it. BECAUSE YOUR HUMAN. But it's possible.
Robonacci com
  • #222
  • Dec 14, 2007 3:19pm Dec 14, 2007 3:19pm
Quoting Skunny
THERE IS A 100% WINNING WAY TO TRADE
But you'll never do it. BECAUSE YOUR HUMAN. But it's possible.

I hope I can learn that. I am pretty new to forex and already blew one of my account it hurrrtttsssssss a lot man. I am in process of blowing up the second one, but I don't want to. I want to learn from my experience and want to profit. Let's see how the second round goes. I think I am improving now.
  • #223
  • Dec 14, 2007 5:26pm Dec 14, 2007 5:26pm
Quoting leo9
I am in process of blowing up the second one, but I don't want to.
Leo9, just an humble suggestion. There is only one way for you not to blow your second account at this moment: stop trading now, go to manual backtesting for now, just that. Until you are not able to make money consistently on every single backtesting session from at least 6 years of historic data, there is no way at all you can avoid to blow your second account. Been there, done that, burned two HUGE accounts, suffered A LOT. Hope you don't do what I did.
.Ubeee.
  • #224
  • Dec 14, 2007 6:10pm Dec 14, 2007 6:10pm
Quoting Skunny
Ok, it is the 62, but the chart says 38, the fib was drawn upside down. When ever price pulls down from any high it is the percentage of the retrace. So, when it retraces 62 % like it did it's the 62.

My confusion was a result of the tool itself. I use a customized fib and I don't have the 38 or 62 on it. I just want everyone to use this for now. We will soon call them upper/lower support/resistance instead.
Cool. Thank you.
  • #225
  • Dec 14, 2007 6:13pm Dec 14, 2007 6:13pm
Quoting Skunny
Yes but that's ok.
Alright. Kinda like following a good leader into battle. Not easy, but it makes it a lot better when you know he doesn't order you to do anything he wouldn't do himself!
  • #226
  • Dec 14, 2007 6:17pm Dec 14, 2007 6:17pm
Quoting leo9
I hope I can learn that. I am pretty new to forex and already blew one of my account it hurrrtttsssssss a lot man. I am in process of blowing up the second one, but I don't want to. I want to learn from my experience and want to profit. Let's see how the second round goes. I think I am improving now.
We've all been there, Leo.

I personally think demos are for learning the platform, then go to real money, even if you're trading a penny a pip. You won't blow the account that way, or at least not any time soon. You just have to stay in the game until you get better, and you're in the right place.

We've got a good thing we're building here.
  • #227
  • Dec 14, 2007 6:38pm Dec 14, 2007 6:38pm
Quoting Skunny
I'm going to post a monthly chart with a fib on it. I just didn't place this fib where it is now. I brought the fib there by a series of previous moves. Now if you look at this chart, do you think there is anyone on the planet, even fib traders, that would pick this spot to draw a fib?

You see, traders don't decide where fibs should be drawn the price action does. When you learn to listen to the market your fib can be here to.
You put it at significant S/R points, right?

I see the triple top where you put the top of the fib - major resistance was hit there. And the bottom fib point, price was heading down and reversed there and went on up - good support.
  • #228
  • Dec 15, 2007 12:56am Dec 15, 2007 12:56am
Quoting Skunny
THERE IS A 100% WINNING WAY TO TRADE
But you'll never do it. BECAUSE YOUR HUMAN. But it's possible.
I've just discovered this thread. Many thanks, Skunny, for sharing.

I'm going to try to summarize my understanding of what Skunny is teaching here. Skunny and others, please feel welcome to correct me. Hopefully the corrections will help clarify the concepts for others.

1. Price will always complete its current cycle (see quote below), in every time frame (i.e. wave or fractal). This is a very different angle to what "traditional" analysis methods teach. We had been previously led to believe that cycles and goals unfold on-the-fly, as the consequence of news, sentiment, and decisions made by traders. However, my new understanding is now that, while all of these factors may cause zigs and zags along the way, price will nonetheless always reach its pre-determined goal.

2. Price action and a calibrated tool can be used to predict these target points (see quote below). The "calibrated tool" is a Fibo retracement (that includes the upper and lower 138.2 and 161.8 levels). IF the Fibo(s) are drawn using the correct base (0/100) points, then the retracement levels fixed by the Fibo have predictive value, in that they will accurately signpost these target prices in advance of price reaching them.

3. Consequently (and this is my assumption), IF we know where these goal prices are, i.e. where the cycle is going to end, and hence price will reverse, then that's a primary reason to say that "there is a 100% winning way to trade", excepting (as Skunny points out) human error.

Quoting Skunny
.....The market isn't total chaos like others like to say. In fact, it is nothing more than a series of very calculated movements inside other movements down to the second. Price needs to satisfy it's goal without breaching boundaries that it has perfectly set for itself in past history. .....

.....The reason for this isn't any of the above, it is a result of a move needing to complete itself before it moved in the opposite direction. Have you heard the term false break out? There is no such thing, traders use this term to describe how they got bent on a trade.

Do I have anyones attention? Because I don't know anyone that actually knows this, not brokers, not even the biggest institutions. When you figure out how to calculate these moves you will have created a Grail (you can decide if it's holy or not). But I can tell you this....IT CAN BE DONE!

Price action and a calibrated tool will get you there. .....
Hence the key is to be able to draw, and use the Fibos, correctly. And possibly understand how to interpret price action around these points??

Skunny, am I understanding this correctly?

David
  • #229
  • Dec 15, 2007 4:06am Dec 15, 2007 4:06am
Quoting blueruby
Alright. Kinda like following a good leader into battle. Not easy, but it makes it a lot better when you know he doesn't order you to do anything he wouldn't do himself!
There is a reason why it's ok, just not to that point yet
Robonacci com
  • #230
  • Dec 15, 2007 4:09am Dec 15, 2007 4:09am
Quoting blueruby
You put it at significant S/R points, right?

I see the triple top where you put the top of the fib - major resistance was hit there. And the bottom fib point, price was heading down and reversed there and went on up - good support.
Not necessarily, you would be surprised to find out where true S/R is.That is why I don't want anyone to trade live yet.
Robonacci com
  • #231
  • Dec 15, 2007 4:22am Dec 15, 2007 4:22am
Skunny, thanks for the "food for thought".

Now... If I could only stop playing with this VTrade thing....:

Henry
  • #232
  • Dec 15, 2007 4:30am Dec 15, 2007 4:30am
Quoting hanover
I've just discovered this thread. Many thanks, Skunny, for sharing.

I'm going to try to summarize my understanding of what Skunny is teaching here. Skunny and others, please feel welcome to correct me. Hopefully the corrections will help clarify the concepts for others.

1. Price will always complete its current cycle (see quote below), in every time frame (i.e. wave or fractal). This is a very different angle to what "traditional" analysis methods teach. We had been previously led to believe that cycles and goals unfold on-the-fly, as the consequence of news, sentiment, and decisions made by traders. However, my new understanding is now that, while all of these factors may cause zigs and zags along the way, price will nonetheless always reach its pre-determined goal.

2. Price action and a calibrated tool can be used to predict these target points (see quote below). The "calibrated tool" is a Fibo retracement (that includes the upper and lower 138.2 and 161.8 levels). IF the Fibo(s) are drawn using the correct base (0/100) points, then the retracement levels fixed by the Fibo have predictive value, in that they will accurately signpost these target prices in advance of price reaching them.

3. Consequently (and this is my assumption), IF we know where these goal prices are, i.e. where the cycle is going to end, and hence price will reverse, then that's a primary reason to say that "there is a 100% winning way to trade", excepting (as Skunny points out) human error.



Hence the key is to be able to draw, and use the Fibos, correctly. And possibly understand how to interpret price action around these points??

Skunny, am I understanding this correctly?

David
You have got to be kidding....hilarious. You are one of the main reasons I started this thread in the first place. Sorry, you didn't know. The moderators need to do a better job of advertising for me (Scott)

Anyway glad your here.

#1 is true with exceptions to lower time frames. Proof of this can be found during unscheduled interest rate announcements, terror attacks, and higher time frame interference.

#2 you might be on to something, but keep in mind we are still on exercises and we are going to change things a bit.

#3 we don't know where the price will reverse, ever. We learn to have a good idea. But as I'll show you (at some point) even this incredible bit of info doesn't matter much. I don't remember the post, but you might, where I suggested you can actually enter the market and never leave. This is what I'm referring to.
Robonacci com
  • #233
  • Dec 15, 2007 4:31am Dec 15, 2007 4:31am
Quoting hensch
Skunny, thanks for the "food for thought".

Now... If I could only stop playing with this VTrade thing....:

Henry
LOL, I know what you mean.
Robonacci com
  • #234
  • Dec 15, 2007 5:48am Dec 15, 2007 5:48am
Skunny,

When you get a chance, tell us more about what we should be doing with vHands.

I mean, normally I put weekly, daily, 4Hr trendlines, and now weekly fibs on my charts. I will add lines to show triangles on the hourly (those have been my bread and butter for a month or two now).

I can't get my roadmap onto the chart in vHands, so I don't know how to trade. Maybe that's the point -- strictly watch P/A?

Even that leaves us with maybe a couple weeks' data on the chart (hourly).

Need some direction.

Rob
  • #235
  • Dec 15, 2007 6:44am Dec 15, 2007 6:44am
Quoting blueruby
Skunny,

When you get a chance, tell us more about what we should be doing with vHands.

I mean, normally I put weekly, daily, 4Hr trendlines, and now weekly fibs on my charts. I will add lines to show triangles on the hourly (those have been my bread and butter for a month or two now).

I can't get my roadmap onto the chart in vHands, so I don't know how to trade. Maybe that's the point -- strictly watch P/A?

Even that leaves us with maybe a couple weeks' data on the chart (hourly).

Need some direction.

Rob
Hello Mr. Blue,

There is nothing super specific at this point. PA when watched over and over trains your brain so you don't need to think as much. You will start, entering and exiting trades better and not really know why. The brain is a crazy place. I need to catch up on my training, but I haven't the time. I can tell I'm getting a little soft.

As far as diagonal trend lines goes, I use Gann line projections with settings that I discovered predetermines S/R from a single point. So my trend line is already on my chart before it forms. Typically traders need at least 2 points in order to snap a line and they call it a trend line, it may just be, but you actually need at least 3 touches on a trend line to call it valid. I actually developed a method I call wedge trading. I'll post a chart. When I hear people on threads saying a wedge is forming I laugh a little inside. Not in a mean way of course, but they don't know they are in a wedge at the time they said it.

This however is a trading system and would need to be somewhere else in the forum. I won't get into details here about it.(I hope)

The chart posted just shows a few projection areas. I drew all of these lines from their origination point(one point). These lines shoot of into nowhere when you first draw'em and when the fairy dust blows the price knows that they are there. These also take a lot of practice and not every point is a Gann line origination point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 20 KB
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  • #236
  • Dec 15, 2007 7:27am Dec 15, 2007 7:27am
Quoting Skunny
The chart posted just shows a few projection areas. I drew all of these lines from their origination point(one point). These lines shoot of into nowhere when you first draw'em and when the fairy dust blows the price knows that they are there. These also take a lot of practice and not every point is a Gann line origination point.
Are we talking about the 45 degree angled trend lines?
  • #237
  • Dec 15, 2007 7:49am Dec 15, 2007 7:49am
Quoting hensch
Are we talking about the 45 degree angled trend lines?
No sir. I'll post another example of a specific wedge trade. Gann lines can be calibrated to any angle. It's knowing what angle your on. Like knowing what cycle your in. All of these are predetermined areas before price gets there. (not after the fact)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 22 KB
Robonacci com
  • #238
  • Dec 15, 2007 8:01am Dec 15, 2007 8:01am
Quoting Skunny
No sir. I'll post another example of a specific wedge trade. Gann lines can be calibrated to any angle. It's knowing what angle your on. Like knowing what cycle your in. All of these are predetermined areas before price gets there. (not after the fact)
Sort of Gann Grid, time/price?
  • #239
  • Dec 15, 2007 8:48am Dec 15, 2007 8:48am
Quoting Bobokus
When you place the template on another pair the fibs are on numbers from GBP/Yen and somewhere around 220 somethings if the chart you put the template on is a currency like the Euro at 1.4's the fibo tool is still way up there on 220 somethings.

Just open the objects menu on the chart and view the fibo tool... where you see the levels displayed and by doing so it will make that the default fibo tool and then when you draw them they will come out the same.
I've opened GBP/USD weekly, and applied Skunny2.tpl. I did as you say and I still don't get see any fib levels on the chart, though I can see "Fib 23021" in the Objects List.

Can you clarify further?

TIA
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #240
  • Dec 15, 2007 9:15am Dec 15, 2007 9:15am
Quoting hensch
Sort of Gann Grid, time/price?
With a Gann grid you end up with a lot of lines that serve little purpose. I make custom grids (in a sense).
Robonacci com
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