DislikedLOL, not the way I meant to say it. I meant it from my own recollection stand point. You're just getting even with me for gumm'n up your thread with unwanted, unsolicited gibber jabber.Ignored
- #262
- Edited 7:59pm Dec 15, 2007 7:13pm | Edited 7:59pm
Skunny, I'm suitably humbled. All I can say is that I'm glad that others will gain insight from your posts. Again, many thanks for sharing. I didn't discover this thread because, of late, I've been keeping to the "Beginner Q&A" and "MetaTrader" forums.
I guess I jumped to conclusions by linking your two statements "THERE IS A 100% WINNING WAY TO TRADE" and "A calibrated tool and price action will get you there". Back on JohnW's thread, I suspected that the "calibrated tool" might be Fibos, and I think I posted something to that effect. From memory you said that you'd accidentally stumbled on an amazing concept after poring over charts for a million hours, and it revolutionized your trading to the point that you discarded indicators. I've just found the post:
Now it seems that a second tool, Gann lines, are being added. This is starting to look like a complex, discretionary method. Nothing wrong with that, of course. I'm slowly learning that expert traders use a variety of tools with great judgement; that this "judgement" is difficult to explain to others, and that it can't be learned overnight. Hence I promise that I will henceforth be more patient.
I'm not trying to be a smart-a$$, attempting to find possible contradictions in anything that you've said. Just trying to get an idea as to what kind of learning curve is involved; what might be realistically possible performance-wise; and - in terms of method - precisely where you're coming from.
I hope that your father's health is improving. I lost my mother to cancer in 2002; life definitely has its periods of blackness. My thoughts and prayers are with you.
David
Hang on a second and I'll drink a Red Bull......................................................................................
Ok done. Now I'm ready.
This is the story. There was a guy that visited a thread called the Holy Grail -Found. He did so to see what ridiculously groovy indicator that had been developed (remember he loves indicators). But to his surprise, there wasn't an indicator, instead there was an idea (true or not in this case) that S/R and PA was the key. Shortly after, the thread was bombarded by the less enthused (negative
) traders. He spent his time there to fend of the "less enthused" and support the idea (cuz it's true). As a result of having to waste energy arguing the issue -with those not willing to learn- he made the statement "Please don't ask me to share the particulars it took me a million hours to figure out (by accident) because I wouldn't want to rob you of the journey to figure it out". He did so because he was unwilling to help those type of people.What he found "by accident" was a result of many hours on the screen, he wasn't running around the corner with peanut butter and bump into a guy holding chocolate and yell "Reeses". He had been on a multi year journey with his peanut butter and ended up making his own chocolate. Sure, the eureka moment was instant, but the journey wasn't. In spite of all this, he realized (from others pm's).that there are some really good hearted people here that might be able to use the information he had.
Now to address this possible confusion of calibrated tools. I'm not teaching Gann lines. I'm not teaching a system, if I ever have the time to compile my findings into a teaching program it will be very expensive to produce and will cost you a lot to have it. So, my intent on starting the thread was to get people to realize what is possible and help them set out on their own journey with their peanut butter in hand(it's just happen to go way past that already).
It is always discretionary when you trade, you're human. What you can't have discretionary is your tool/indicator. The combination of an indicator/tool that doesn't project, but reformulates data and a human being isn't all that good IMHO.
My advice to new comers........ try to accept the message I'm trying to share and worry less about the trading right now. I realize you all want/need to make money. But, you won't get there without the time investment, I assure you. If for some reason you came into forex thinking it was easy money, go back out the door and reenter with a different attitude. This alone will save you thousands of dollars and hours.
If I missed your question in all of this I apologize and would be happy to answer it if you readdress it. Otherwise I'm clueless(not the first time).
Also, thanks for your kind words/prayers and I'm sorry to hear of your loss. (we are going to battle the same thing). Take care.
Robonacci com
I believe you can have a very high winning rate, however my reasons for not believing 100% is possible over the long term are:
ANYTHING can happen. The setup can be PERFECT, you follow your system to a tee, you take into account all (known) variables, however there will always be known variables. Known ones being news releases, expected results, what will happen if it is over/under, seasonal cycles, etc, but what about acts of terrorism, natural disasters, unexpected political changes to an otherwise stable government, or something as simple as a huge trader such as soros making a trade and moving the market. What about companies needing to convert huge amounts of money for whatever reason? I am just saying there are always unknown factors that will be out there, and even if there is a 1/500 chance of something like the aforementioned happening, it can, and will.
, but I'll address your points. I'm not talking about your system or just any system. I'm talking about knowing the market.Your argument seems to be, that because it might be impossible therefore it isn't possible.I also specified "predetermined time frame". What does long term mean? Anyway, the particulars aren't important it's the message I'm trying to communicate as I know it.
If you think that when a market crashes or a terrorist attack happens that there isn't any boundaries in place to stop it at particular points (which you can trade) then you need to stick around.
Personally, I invite the trading conditions you seem to fear will ruin your attempt at perfection. From my experience there isn't a trade that doesn't form before it happens.
Robonacci com
- #267
- Dec 15, 2007 9:47pm Dec 15, 2007 9:47pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
Hey everyone,
1)Thanks Bo for your help while I was away, your help is sincerely appreciated. 2)Personal - I just received notice of an unfortunate medical diagnosis within my family. The only reason I say this is because I will have very limited time over the next week or so to answer all the questions. I will try to pick out comments and posts that affect the most people and respond in that form. (it's my Dad for those in a praying mood).
Anyway, we must not lose focus of the step we are on right now. Some of you are looking for a "system" with the information I've given so far, don't. I'm really not trying to make this a riddle. However, sometimes I even feel like I am...lol, but I'm not trying to. Come to think about it, trading just may be a riddle....hadn't thought of it that way before.
Some of you may think you have a good grasp on the market and would rather I just show you how I trade. This however, is not a good way for others to learn. YOU CANNOT LEARN HOW TO TRADE IN A DAY. (I'm not yelling, just wanted it to stand out
What I asked you to do with the weekly chart is use 1 candle and fib it. Then I asked you to observe what followed. I did this not as a trading strategy, but to help you study S/R as it relates to theses fibs. Weekly candles are most reliable and as you go down in time frames it weakens and gives way to the stronger (higher) time frames. So, you must know daily if you want to trade hourly....and so on. If you want to trade 15mn time frame you don't need too much daily information just 1/4 hr. I'm sure you get the idea, it's been said somewhere before I'm sure.
The market likes to give hints on where it is going to go next, even if it takes a while to get there. You can observe this when S/R lines are penetrated but not broken. As long as you have your S/R in the right spot.
For instance, if a support area is penetrated by 20 pips and turns itself into the most misread candle in trading.......The Dreaded Pin Bar. After the "pin bar" is done getting everyone into a long trade it magically heads back down to bust through the support. You can know this information ahead of time, so you aren't long. You can sit there all smug waiting for a short signal and do this:.
This is where Vhands trading is essential. You can watch the price action hit the supports you've drawn and see how it reacts to it. Looking at a candle that has already formed is relatively useless in the learning process.
Q. So, if you could learn where the weekly was headed and waited for the daily to signal the same and then traded hourly, would that improve your trading? I haven't showed how to trade any of this yet, so don't be foolish and try trading what I've told you so far. If I wanted you to just make money I would post a trade call (it's a lot easier for me)
This is a large concept that needs to be accepted. If your answer is no, I suggest you buy an ice cream stand with your money instead.
I'll go back through the posts and address some issues as time allows.
Thanks.
skunny you absolutely rule! please know that there are many of us who appreciate your wisdom and taking the time to teach it to us! I will duly learn one step at a time.....i've only blown 1 account so far so i guess i have at least 1 more to go
.... but..also, johw w was kind enough to pm me part of his strategy....but i cannot post it because that would be up to HIM not me to continue posting....very refreshing indeed.... I can say that you and he are on the same wavelength... price action... projection...as john w said in the holy grail thread...what will price NOT do? ... now you're talking....if you know what price won't do you can project what it (90)%_ will do....very cool..... and without "indicators"! james 16 thread is a great start for me to learn price action but like you said the pinbars etc. is not the whole story and therefore not reliable...so you showing us the other half of the story is unbeleivably awesome! I dont know that I could ever see this stuff without your help! I'm not smart enough... may god bless you. anyway i have many questions of course, but i will wait a bit because you may answer them in time.... just wanted to say thank you so much
- #268
- Dec 15, 2007 10:07pm Dec 15, 2007 10:07pm
I don't believe you've read the whole thread
I also specified "predetermined time frame". What does long term mean? Anyway, the particulars aren't important it's the message I'm trying to communicate as I know it.
If you think that when a market crashes or a terrorist attack happens that there isn't any boundaries in place to stop it at particular points (which you can trade) then you need to stick around.
Personally, I invite the trading conditions you seem to fear will ruin your attempt at perfection. From my experience there isn't a trade that doesn't form before it happens.
- #269
- Dec 16, 2007 12:59am Dec 16, 2007 12:59am
Hi Skunny,
I'm with Hanover on this one........didn't realize you had started this thread. Boy, glad you are doing it and glad I found it!! Very eye-opening stuff here! Please save me from myself and keep it coming.
Also, your father is in my prayers tonight! I have a father that is on the decline from kidney disease. Not a fun thing at all! You have my respect.
Kind Regards!
I'm with Hanover on this one........didn't realize you had started this thread. Boy, glad you are doing it and glad I found it!! Very eye-opening stuff here! Please save me from myself and keep it coming.
Also, your father is in my prayers tonight! I have a father that is on the decline from kidney disease. Not a fun thing at all! You have my respect.
Kind Regards!
- #274
- Dec 16, 2007 5:59am Dec 16, 2007 5:59am
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: THANK YOU MERLIN,TWEE and FF Team | 4,603 Posts
My question was prompted by Skunny's remark that a person could never hope to perfectly execute the method. An EA - which removes human weaknesses such as emotion from trading - potentially could.
)Bo had told me a while ago that EA's will never work because they don't have the human element (very good argument and I agree). But, because there are no indicators requiring me to be super human, it just may be possible. Unfortunately, I'm not wired to understand computers, so I'm not sure what the capabilities are. We'll see!
Thanks for posting.
Robonacci com
Hi Skunny,
I'm with Hanover on this one........didn't realize you had started this thread. Boy, glad you are doing it and glad I found it!! Very eye-opening stuff here! Please save me from myself and keep it coming.
Also, your father is in my prayers tonight! I have a father that is on the decline from kidney disease. Not a fun thing at all! You have my respect.
Kind Regards!
Sorry about that
I think everyone is accounted for now.
Robonacci com
Can you please elaborate a bit on "market flow"? What the heck is it anyway (you can see I'm a newbie).
And how can the (FOREX) market, which is the sum of the trading choices of millions of traders, possibly be "predetermined"???
TIA
The Fibonacci numbers first appeared, under the name mātrāmeru (mountain of cadence), in the work of the Sanskrit grammarian Pingala (Chandah-shāstra, the Art of Prosody, 450 or 200 BC). Prosody was important in ancient Indian ritual because of an emphasis on the purity of utterance. The Indian mathematician Virahanka (6th century AD) showed how the Fibonacci sequence arose in the analysis of metres with long and short syllables. Subsequently, the Jain philosopher Hemachandra (c.1150) composed a well-known text on these. A commentary on Virahanka's work by Gopāla in the 12th century also revisits the problem in some detail.
Sanskrit vowel sounds can be long (L) or short (S), and Virahanka's analysis, which came to be known as mātrā-vṛtta, wishes to compute how many metres (mātrās) of a given overall length can be composed of these syllables. If the long syllable is twice as long as the short, the solutions are:
1 mora: S (1 pattern)2 morae: SS; L (2)3 morae: SSS, SL; LS (3)4 morae: SSSS, SSL, SLS; LSS, LL (5)5 morae: SSSSS, SSSL, SSLS, SLSS, SLL; LSSS, LSL, LLS (8)6 morae: SSSSSS, SSSSL, SSSLS, SSLSS, SLSSS, LSSSS, SSLL, SLSL, SLLS, LSSL, LSLS, LLSS, LLL (13)7 morae: SSSSSSS, SSSSSL, SSSSLS, SSSLSS, SSLSSS, SLSSSS, LSSSSS, SSSLL, SSLSL, SLSSL, LSSSL, SSLLS, SLSLS, LSSLS, SLLSS, LSLSS, LLSSS, SLLL, LSLL, LLSL, LLLS (21) A pattern of length n can be formed by adding S to a pattern of length n−1, or L to a pattern of length n−2; and the prosodicists showed that the number of patterns of length n is the sum of the two previous numbers in the series. Donald Knuth reviews this work in The Art of Computer Programming as equivalent formulations of the bin packing problem for items of lengths 1 and 2.
In the West, the sequence was first studied by Leonardo of Pisa, known as Fibonacci, in his Liber Abaci (1202)[4]. He considers the growth of an idealised (biologically unrealistic) rabbit population, assuming that:
- in the first month there is just one newly-born pair,
- new-born pairs become fertile from their second month on
- each month every fertile pair begets a new pair, and
- the rabbits never die
Let the population at month n be F(n). At this time, only rabbits who were alive at month n−2 are fertile and produce offspring, so F(n−2) pairs are added to the current population of F(n−1). Thus the total is F(n) = F(n−1) + F(n−2).[5]
Now do you understand? I don't, I was lost on the first sentence, but I'm sure it's in there somewhere...lol
But , this is how I see the world. There are forces in the universe we don't understand and never will. These forces and facts don't have an origination point that we know of. Most of which we call laws, I think they get this name because it just is. Laws of Attraction, Gravity etc. I'm one of those guys that doesn't focus on why, rather I focus on what is. In this case. it just is. It is human nature to think we are responsible for the results that happen on a large scale.
Let's take global warming and my best friend Al Gore to task here...
It is my belief that if you could chart your life mathematically you can project where you were destine to be. Not that you'll get there, you'll screw it up somehow. The planet is going to do what it is going to do regardless of us, it's in a cycle. The markets are the same way, the currency is going where it is going regardless of us. Sure, we might help it get there quicker or slow it down, but it's going to get there. If the planet wants to warm up 5 degrees and melt ice, so be it, it needs to go where it needs to go, If we all stop driving cars and using hair spray(LOL) tomorrow, we aren't going to stop it. If we all die because of it....so what. It needed to happen.
This isn't a debate on global warming, so please keep it to yourselves. PM your opposite view if you feel the need. The point I'm making is, that there are some things that just are. Market flow to me.....just is. The puzzle was, to figure out where it is going. Like global warming, 10 years from now it may go the other way and start cooling (some scientist believe). I guarantee you,humans will be to blame for this as well. We are not that powerful IMHO. But then again, what do I know.
Robonacci com