Elliott Wave Counting with EG

I am currently looking at a 4hourt chart of EURUSD.

And it now seems to me that there is a possibility that this wave is actually developing into a potential symmetrical contracting triangle corrective wave.

Such the current wave 5 of sub wave c down will potentially be truncated to bounce of the 4 hour trend line.

To me the 4 hour trendlines seem very important that when a 15 min candle opens and closes below this, a big move is most likely to occur.

If this happens, then most likely EURUSD will range inside tjhis symmetrical triangle till around Tuesday or Wednesday next week till it breaks out to the down side.

EG

here is the 4 hour chart with that potential.

Could be a contracting symmetrical triangle or a contracting barrier triangle. Either of the 2, will be followed with a break to the downside.

The other option is a FLAT corrective triangle that goes up towards previous high at 1.4966 if a regular flat . Otherwise, it may be an expanded flat that travels up and makes new High.

EG


PS. I am favoring a Triangle Big wave b on this 4hour chart.
Previous wave 2 of the same degree as this wave 4 on the 4hour hour chart was a complex sideways expanding corrective wave.

wave 4 therefore is expected to be a Zigzag.
Wave A of this wave 4 was a 3 wave structure
Therefore Wave B is exoected to be FLAT or a Triangle.
If Wave B is a FLAT or an expanded FLAT, then price goesup towards the origin of Big Wave A to end Big Wave B.

In that case , I do not see the possibility of a Zigzag Wave 4.

So given that forecasting scenario, I am more inclined to see this Big Wave B develop into a triangle so that The whole of Wave 4 will be able to form the expected Zigzag Corrective Wave .

Yes this is like trying to just stick to the guidelines and some rules without noting fundamentals and technicals. But let us see how this turns out.

EG

I have already entered a Long trade @ MT4 equivalent of 1.4617.

Yes it is on the negative now. SL is at 300. So if it goes down now to complete the final leg of Big wave C this Sl will take care of that even till 500pips or more if needed.

If it goes up for my favoured triangle, then I can still earn some pips.

This you would think is trading like without any SL with the BIG SLs I use. However that is not entirely true because I would not use that Big an SL If I was not looking at my EW Counts and the Technical indicators.

Th eonly reason why I use those large SLs is because I have better confidence with my anaysis combining EW Counts with my technical anaysis. without them I would just be trhrowing away money and gambling.


EG

Time to watch for MACD Divergence onthe 15min chart to signal potential end of a Wave 5 of this wave c down of Sub wave c of the Big Wave B.

Note your oscillators too come out of the oversold level and cross back into the trade zone.

EG

another scenario on chart

incidentally, price hits Daily 5sma @ 1.4561.

watching potential levels where price could turn around for a retracement:

1.4546 Daily Support 2
1.4480 61.8% projection from the previous days Range
1.4486 is Daily Support 3
1.4408 could be the extrem which is the Weekly Support 2

EG

EURUSD is probably developing a wave 4 inside this wave 5 down.

Likely to retrace toward 1.4561 (38.2% wave 3 retracement) or (50% retrace to 61.8 retrace 1.4570 - 1.4578).

EG

I initially thought that based on price hitting the Daily Support 2 and the weekly Support 1, we will have a bottom in place. However when you look at the 5min chart, there are just 3 waves there and the 4th is still developing unless it stops at 38.2% retracement of wave 3 or settles for a little above 23.6%.

So another push downwards before it tries to go up again.

Besides I am looking for a Divergence on my MACD on the 5min or 15min chart to signal a potential reversal in price.

Have already exited my old short trade for +1.

Note that we have a Bullish Pin Bar on the 15min chart ( at least that is what I see on my chart.

Then a potentialbearish Barrier triangle on the 4hour chart.

If price keeps above the 1.4530 level, we are more likely to range in this bearish barrier triangle onthe 4hour chart.

Oscillators are mostly on the over sold levels now and with the bullish pin bar plus 2 succeeding candlesticks with higher lows and higher highs, it is very likely that we are on our way up now.

or just very near finishing the wave 5 down as I am still looking out for the MACD Divergence on the 5min or 15min chart.


EG

scrapping my wave counts now as price goes far lower than I expected it to be.

Sitting this out as I re assess my counts.

EG

hi eg, how are you?

What about GBP/JPY? do you still make your counting there or no??
I would like to see if we are on the samo road??
tnx in advance

jus wondering if i've got hold of the right EW counts for this huge corrective pattern

money and Kevin

Attached is my count for GBPJPY

EG

Other views with EW and Harmonic Patterns

Potential Bullish Bat on the 1 hr TF.

MACD Divergence on the 15min chart. My EW indicates that we may have wave 5 end for the Sub wave c of a wave B.


EG

note that this is on 5min chart.

an expanding triangle for wave a or 1.

EG

update
1 more chart

update for a possible ew count revision based on new development.

225.95 may just be the end of wave 3 down.

potentially developing a wave 4 up. wave 2 being what looks to me as a sideways correction, I would be watching wave 4 develop into a sharp zigzag.

There is always a possibiolity that wave 4 can end on the 23.6% retrace when the main trend is strong .

1st TP would be @ 38.2% retracement @ 227.14 which is also the end of previous wave 1 to prevent overlap between wave 4 and wave 1 or 2.

a possible bounce may be observed when price hits the daily Pivot @ 226.86

I will not discount the possibility of price going up to the Weekly Pivot @ 227.77 which is just a little above the following MAs
15min 240 ema
15min 365 ema
4hr 5sma

incidentally while weekly pivot is @ 227.86, the 61.8% retracement of wave 3 is @ 227.87 BUT this level if price will reach will show an overlap between wave 1 and wave 4.

50% retrace level will have a better chance which is at 227.51 ( if you disregard the slight overlap between wave 1 and wave 4 due to the spike at wave 1 end.

if that pans out for wave 4..... then I would look towards the 225.40 level for potential end of wave 5.

EG

50 ema and the 34ema on the 15 min chart seemed to have formed a barrier for price to go up and has only allowed price to retrace by 23.6% up of wave 3.

and has resulted to a formation of a triangle on the 15min and 30min chart.

The way I look at it now is that we will see price complete the 5 zigzag waves in side the triangle then breakout to the down side and finish off the wave 5 down before bouncing up.

Poor data performance on the Japanese trade balance as not helped gbpjpy to shoot up for that retracement.

Anyway, evrything still seems within the EW guideline so I will maintain this view for now.

EG

I apologize for posting that GBPUSD chart earlier which showed a potential Pinbar on my 4hour chart. I checked other platforms and did not see the same . So I thought it best to remove that post so as not to give false hope for those with current long trades suffering heavy drawdowns.

EG

Attached is my EW Chart for the 4 hour Timeframe together with the Pivot and the Support and Resistance Levels and Trendlines.

I hope these chart will help someone.

EG

PS.

I am still Bullish Bias but like they say "currently bleeding RED" with my position.

Based on my ew counts, there is still a poterntial that wave 5 is not finished And for price to still go down to FE 261.8 @ 222.43 or the weekly S2 @ 222.31. or to the Daily S2 or Support 3. So currently really bleeding with my position.

But a possible retracement for a wave 4, if wave 5 is not yet finished is possible. But that would mean price will have to go above the daily pivot at 224.83

The chart attached just show possible scenarios and do not recommend any particular trade.

Anybody is free to comment on it as it includes both the EW Counts and some technical stuff which I hope others may find either useful or they can help pinpoint areas which I may not be noticing the implications of.

EG

Attached chart for GBPJPY shows 2 possible counts

Bullish a5_bz_c5_31
Bearish 1_2_3_4? Deep Pink

Price has Breached the Daily Pivot level on the 4hour chart. But we need a candle to open and close above this Level to have higher confidence of a Bullish trend.

But it also shows price nearly hitting the 23.6% retracement level for Wave 3.

Very much like yesterday. so let us watchand hopefully be able to do something for these long trades I still have.

EG

Hi EG,

I fell on the same trap as you did, what a painful day trying to long.
Todays low opened the "doors" to a possible wave 5 so that the current low will be 3 and all this correction was a wave 4..which looks very attractive because the last week really looks like the type of correction that forms waves 4, Slow and painful.

On the other hand this looks as a B so that the C should be a nice move upwards...Today's low was right on the Warning line of my fork, so a retrace is due.

My plan is to see how the retracement develops, see if this was a bitchy b wave that guppy loves or if this was the first leg of the next wave.

PS:Charts are coming soon.

Chart