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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #721
  • Dec 7, 2007 9:59pm Dec 7, 2007 9:59pm
Quoting Igrok
There is an obvious diamond on hourly cable but I can't say for sure whether it has two diagonals, or just one. The borders are also hard to draw correctly that makes it a rare situation, when otherwise obvious formation can't generate a trading idea before the market exceeds its top or bottom.
Just trying to help out on your chart post if this isnt what you meant i will take it off. BTW if you where on vacation for 2 weeks welcome back and realy looking forward to your positings as we head for the new year! Like has the bottom for the dollar finally come?
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All I ask is a chance to prove that money can't make me happy.
  • #722
  • Dec 10, 2007 5:19am Dec 10, 2007 5:19am
Quoting telluv
Just trying to help out on your chart post if this isnt what you meant i will take it off. BTW if you where on vacation for 2 weeks welcome back and realy looking forward to your positings as we head for the new year! Like has the bottom for the dollar finally come?
Yes, the cable chart is correct. Seems it works fine so far, but I'm not sure whether we have already seen the bottom on the buck or not. At least not on all the majors. It is likely that there was the bottom on USD/CAD and perhaps the top on the cable as well, but I'm not sure about the EUR and swissy. USDX's perfect bottom would be located at just below 74.00 from the technical point of view.
P.S. Unfortunately I wasn't on a vacation. Just a severe flue that I got all of a sudden for the first time in 15 years.
  • #723
  • Dec 10, 2007 5:28am Dec 10, 2007 5:28am
I guess there should be no major USD reversal seen until cable covers its gap at around 2.0920.
  • #724
  • Dec 10, 2007 5:57am Dec 10, 2007 5:57am
Quoting Igrok
P.S. Unfortunately I wasn't on a vacation. Just a severe flue that I got all of a sudden for the first time in 15 years.
I hope you are/get better

It helped me to drink massive amounts of orange juice with Vitamin C, but I think that as long as you believe in something helping, that will already do most of the work
But the Vitamin and fluid probably didn't hurt, either
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #725
  • Dec 10, 2007 6:21am Dec 10, 2007 6:21am
Hi Igrok, glad you're back.

Could you please ellaborate, if possible, on your money management principles. I remember you saying somewhere some time ago that you never risk, initially, more than 1-1.5% of your capital on a single position. Is this true? How much are you ready to risk on all open positions? To what extent do you consider for correlations between pairs in determining your exposure? With what drawdown do you start feeling bad? Do you determine your risk according to some statistical principles - or just use experience/rules of thumb? I'll be happy to hear as much as you can tell.
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #726
  • Dec 10, 2007 11:03am Dec 10, 2007 11:03am
Quoting SeekingLight
I hope you are/get better

It helped me to drink massive amounts of orange juice with Vitamin C, but I think that as long as you believe in something helping, that will already do most of the work
But the Vitamin and fluid probably didn't hurt, either
Thanks for caring. Now it's OK. I'm back up and running again. Good lesson though since at some point I started to believe that I'm invincible to any virus or microb attack.
  • #727
  • Dec 10, 2007 11:35am Dec 10, 2007 11:35am
Quoting ilanr
Hi Igrok, glad you're back.

Could you please ellaborate, if possible, on your money management principles. I remember you saying somewhere some time ago that you never risk, initially, more than 1-1.5% of your capital on a single position. Is this true? How much are you ready to risk on all open positions? To what extent do you consider for correlations between pairs in determining your exposure? With what drawdown do you start feeling bad? Do you determine your risk according to some statistical principles - or just use experience/rules of thumb? I'll be happy to hear as much as you can tell.
In my trading money mamagement usually greatly depends on the probability and the risk/reward ratio of a single trading opportunity. For intraday trading I don't really exceed that numbers that you mentioned here. 1-1,5% risk is OK for a single regular trade in such case when the stops and the target are based on ADTR. But from time to time the market offers much better trading opportunities when a single trade can make a great deal of money almost for certain. It usually happens when a major trendline gets broken or when oversold/overbought conditions are so extreme that the probability for the market to make a certain move is extremely high. For instance, just last month USD/CAD was so severely oversold on daily, weekly and monthly charts that there were absolutely no chance to see it declining much further without making a significant correction first. A simple check on the pair's history showed that 1000-1200 of retracement was a must assuming that a bigger risk could be taken. Such a position could easily be averaged as well.
For me, money management also often depends on how I'm doing recently since the beginning of a trading month. I don't usually hesitate to risk with a freshly made profits in order to increase my overall potential performance without compromising the intial account balance. This is why I usually start every trading month carefully in order to be able to place bigger trades toward the end of the month if some profits have been made initially and a good opportunity to take a bigger position gets presented later in the month. Same is true for new customer acconts, which I normally trade very concervative in the beginning and then become more agressive when some profits have already been made. Initial investment and principal capital is like a sacred cow for me while current trading profits are just disposable raw materials for making more of those.
  • #728
  • Dec 10, 2007 11:48am Dec 10, 2007 11:48am
Quoting Igrok
For me, money management also often depends on how I'm doing recently since the beginning of a trading month.
Very interesting, thanks. Why emphasis on the months? It's because you report to your clients on a monthly basis? Or just a convenient time slicing? Or (as it sometimes seems to me) the market takes a new breath in the beginning of each month?
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #729
  • Dec 10, 2007 11:56am Dec 10, 2007 11:56am
Quoting ilanr
Very interesting, thanks. Why emphasis on the months? It's because you report to your clients on a monthly basis? Or just a convenient time slicing? Or (as it sometimes seems to me) the market takes a new breath in the beginning of each month?
All of the mentioned above.
  • #730
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:34pm Dec 10, 2007 2:34pm
Quoting Igrok
Thanks for caring. Now it's OK. I'm back up and running again. Good lesson though since at some point I started to believe that I'm invincible to any virus or microb attack.
Usually it's not the things we see and can see, but those we can not, that are most likely to hurt us the most.

Pseudo-esoteric mumblings, but it immediately sprang to mind

Glad to hear you're well again. I just hate any kind of mental and physical incapacitation, it's like being denied access to your own creations and facilities. It really, really sucks.

Interesting perspective on initial vs "earned" capital...I still feel every EUR I book already "belongs" to me again, and this could perhaps be a kind of a hindrance or obstruction at times.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #731
  • Dec 13, 2007 5:23am Dec 13, 2007 5:23am
Welcome back Igrok.

may i know your opinion about this kind of graph.
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  • #732
  • Dec 13, 2007 11:52am Dec 13, 2007 11:52am
Quoting ayejkt
Welcome back Igrok.

may i know your opinion about this kind of graph.
This is nothing specific on your chart. At least, I can't make sense of it.
On the other hand there is a two-diagonaled diamond almost complete now on the EUR/USD daily chart. Some might also identify the pattern as an unfinished H&S formation. Whether it is a continiation or a reversal diamond still remains to be seen.
  • #733
  • Dec 13, 2007 7:02pm Dec 13, 2007 7:02pm
Potential two-diagonaled diamond on the EUR/USD daily chart (that can also turn later into a H&S). Considering the the overall circumstance and general technical picture it is more likely to be broken on the upside.
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  • #734
  • Dec 13, 2007 7:21pm Dec 13, 2007 7:21pm
Yesterday's small intraday diamond on the EUR/USD that worked out just perfect.
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  • #735
  • Dec 14, 2007 4:00am Dec 14, 2007 4:00am
Quoting Igrok
Yesterday's small intraday diamond on the EUR/USD that worked out just perfect.
I don't know if I'm allowed to ask, but I thought I'd at least try

Does one enter then once one of the borderlines/diamond TLs is broken?
Is there a target projection, say, height of the diamond projected off the breaking point?

If that's all book only I understand, I'm just curious
Would like to see if I can get some of my price projections to line up with other things, since anything that creates confluence to gauge possible price reactions is valuable.
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #736
  • Dec 14, 2007 4:30am Dec 14, 2007 4:30am
Quoting SeekingLight
I don't know if I'm allowed to ask, but I thought I'd at least try

Does one enter then once one of the borderlines/diamond TLs is broken?
Is there a target projection, say, height of the diamond projected off the breaking point?

If that's all book only I understand, I'm just curious
Would like to see if I can get some of my price projections to line up with other things, since anything that creates confluence to gauge possible price reactions is valuable.
Depends on time horizon view of a particular trader. In this particular case with reversal diamond right ahead of the month's high and with the direction of the main move being down someone could sit on the shorts till the average monthly range is complete (long term). Or till the day's closing time (intraday). Or till the weekly average range is complete (medium). It's optional and quite discretionary.
  • #737
  • Dec 18, 2007 2:09am Dec 18, 2007 2:09am
Hi Igrok. I'm reading your book right now and I'm very impressed! I did have a question about your trading philosophy if you don't mind? You mentioned that one of your basic assumptions about the markets is that they have a strong tendency to complete their daily range. I must admit that I have never heard this before. I'm wondering did you come to this conclusion yourself or did you learn it from someone else? Also, where may I read more about this market feature? Thank you.
  • #738
  • Dec 18, 2007 10:12pm Dec 18, 2007 10:12pm
Anyone think this is a Diamond on the 1hr USD/JPY. I like the bar formation that is shown on this chart - I call it "coiling". Just like a spring ready to pop. I look at it and think stronger breakouts are on the horizon. On second look at the chart I am not sure Igrok Would think its perfect
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All I ask is a chance to prove that money can't make me happy.
  • #739
  • Dec 19, 2007 2:54am Dec 19, 2007 2:54am
I would say no to the above diamond due to the upper left border not being defined properly
  • #740
  • Dec 20, 2007 1:21am Dec 20, 2007 1:21am
Quoting Mr. Pips
Hi Igrok. I'm reading your book right now and I'm very impressed! I did have a question about your trading philosophy if you don't mind? You mentioned that one of your basic assumptions about the markets is that they have a strong tendency to complete their daily range. I must admit that I have never heard this before. I'm wondering did you come to this conclusion yourself or did you learn it from someone else? Also, where may I read more about this market feature? Thank you.
I have never had anyone to learn from. Everything I do in the market or have written about here or in the book is based on my own research and experience only. The first ever book about Forex was published three years after I became a pro trader. By the time I got it in my hands I already learned about trading from my personal experience more than the author put into his book. Most of my book's material, that you are reading now, I wrote in 1998. There is nothing else that I can recommend you as a source of additional information about the issue. The only credit I can give goes to John Murphy's "Technical analysis for futures markets", but I have already found a lot of mistakes there as well.
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