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Aussie Pairs

  • #1,621
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:42am Dec 12, 2007 10:42am
Quoting Trader KGB
You can't trust them. There must be a whole pack of bond traders who got killed today.

Before going to bed last night, I thought to myself how I could never hold a leveraged short carry trade in this environment with 100% conviction, for fear that the Fed might come out and do something completely unexpected. Sure enough, it happened today!

Imagine if this plan hadn't been leaked in the Asian/Euro sessions, if they kept a tighter lid & just dumped the headline at 9am, what a frenzy that would've been, watching the crosses gap higher 300-500 pips in a matter of seconds.. The Fed did something similar back in 99/00 with an unexpected, inter-meeting 50bp move during the trading day, all hell broke loose..
Bondguys are basejumping off their desks. I don't know what to think.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,622
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:45am Dec 12, 2007 10:45am
Quoting DutchTrader
Bondguys are basejumping off their desks. I don't know what to think.
yeah, I guess so. If I remember correcty, all the tall buildings in the Wall Street area, have windows that do not open.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #1,623
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:18pm Dec 12, 2007 12:18pm
Interesting that AJ and NJ are still up 2% and 3% in light of the Dow now having reversed 400 points since the open..
  • #1,624
  • Dec 12, 2007 3:36pm Dec 12, 2007 3:36pm
KGB,

Could be more downside, or a sign of a bullish trend.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,625
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:14pm Dec 12, 2007 7:14pm
Quoting DutchTrader
KGB,

Could be more downside, or a sign of a bullish trend.
Agreed Dutch,

This day threw me off. Dow retraces 400 points, NJ and AJ hardly budge.

Meanwhile, CAD trade balance beats estimates by C$ 1B, oil is up $4, and USDCAD is only off 0.15%.. something doesn't seem quite right about that picture. I still think CADJPY provides the most "value" here, and though I was thrown off by the Fed in holding out for 108 yesterday, I'll gladly take 109.25 today.

Speaking of the Fed news, how far back can you check the newswire on GFT's platform? On a different thread, someone claims that the injection rumors hit DJ newswires after the close yesterday, exactly when AJ and NJ started rapidly rebounding. I suspected the news, but never actually saw the rumor headline cross on my two feeds (DJ newswires from an MT4 demo and RTTNews). Can you see if the rumors were ever mentioned on GFT's newswire? (check 5-9pm est yesterday if possible) Thanks. That would've been valuable knowledge.. and definitely worth a better news feed if I did indeed miss it.
  • #1,626
  • Dec 13, 2007 3:50am Dec 13, 2007 3:50am
Quoting Trader KGB
Agreed Dutch,

This day threw me off. Dow retraces 400 points, NJ and AJ hardly budge.

Meanwhile, CAD trade balance beats estimates by C$ 1B, oil is up $4, and USDCAD is only off 0.15%.. something doesn't seem quite right about that picture. I still think CADJPY provides the most "value" here, and though I was thrown off by the Fed in holding out for 108 yesterday, I'll gladly take 109.25 today.

Speaking of the Fed news, how far back can you check the newswire on GFT's platform? On a different thread, someone claims that the injection rumors hit DJ newswires after the close yesterday, exactly when AJ and NJ started rapidly rebounding. I suspected the news, but never actually saw the rumor headline cross on my two feeds (DJ newswires from an MT4 demo and RTTNews). Can you see if the rumors were ever mentioned on GFT's newswire? (check 5-9pm est yesterday if possible) Thanks. That would've been valuable knowledge.. and definitely worth a better news feed if I did indeed miss it.
There were rumours mentioned but the feed refreshes at the open of each Asian session.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,627
  • Dec 14, 2007 9:07am Dec 14, 2007 9:07am
Traders are not taking bad new on Wallstreet as badly as they did 2 weeks ago (6 Dec for example) and are much more confident. The 38.2 Fib restistance level, upheld by two previous candles, was then broken through on Dec 12th. Carry traders are gearing up to strike, as the effect of the Dec 12th PPI report showed.

Personally, I was originally hoping for another retracement to the 1.7 area, but closed my previous trade from 1.59 today on the CPI report, gaining a few pips on the news spike. The chance of another retracement upward looks slim. Expecting a move down to around 1.55.

Regards,

rudenstein
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  • #1,628
  • Dec 16, 2007 4:10pm Dec 16, 2007 4:10pm
Quoting TradingAffin
8581 level demonstrates potential good mathematical support (imo)...& shows a good probability of producing a bounce soon.(imo)
Interesting chart. Could you elaborate more on the mathematical support at 8581?

In the event of a retrace, I see the 8684 resistance level being the first test (former support from 11/21 - 12/6) and then the 8750 former support zone. If the downtrend continues, I estimate initial support targets at the 200-day SMA & 50 fib level.
  • #1,629
  • Dec 16, 2007 4:46pm Dec 16, 2007 4:46pm
8581 level demonstrates potential good mathematical support (imo)...& shows a good probability of producing a bounce soon.(imo)
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  • #1,630
  • Dec 16, 2007 4:52pm Dec 16, 2007 4:52pm
I tried to edit the original message & somehow managed too delete it(duh) ..so I reposted as per the original...
Mathematical support/resistance is just a term I use to describe areas where the reasons for support/resistance may not be immediately obvious .
  • #1,631
  • Dec 17, 2007 1:07am Dec 17, 2007 1:07am
Well, there goes your "math" support.
  • #1,632
  • Dec 17, 2007 1:23am Dec 17, 2007 1:23am
Quoting Subdude
Well, there goes your "math" support.
Is that all you have to add to the discussion? This thread needs all the participation it can get. We've all made our share of bad calls, have you seen any of Dutch's posts lately?
  • #1,633
  • Dec 17, 2007 3:10am Dec 17, 2007 3:10am
Quoting Trader KGB
Is that all you have to add to the discussion? This thread needs all the participation it can get. We've all made our share of bad calls, have you seen any of Dutch's posts lately?
That's the extent of my participation right now; sorry if all I can offer is hindsight, but it's pretty damn accurate.

Now that I've made a good call, allow me to make a questionable one: 0.8450 this week - how's that? No math basis, I just like this nice round number and it's not so far out. Feel free to come back and tell me "see, you were wrong" - no offense shall be taken.
  • #1,634
  • Dec 17, 2007 3:17am Dec 17, 2007 3:17am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
50% fib at 8550 along with a 200ema and a daily pivot should provide a good bounce, however i do feel this pair like the EU are targeting there supporting trendlines around 8240ish depending on which day it gets there.

so for my 2 pips worth long on a spike below 8550.

as always i will be wrong. LOL (just because i posted it)
  • #1,635
  • Dec 17, 2007 12:14pm Dec 17, 2007 12:14pm
Hi Folks,
How are you all? Any of you planing to trade or enter long prior to RBA news event? I thought of going long on AUD/$ just prior to the news . Could any one of you share your insight, Please ?

Thanking you all in advance
BANDA333
  • #1,636
  • Dec 17, 2007 12:24pm Dec 17, 2007 12:24pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Is that all you have to add to the discussion? This thread needs all the participation it can get. We've all made our share of bad calls, have you seen any of Dutch's posts lately?
I think I'm batting .400 thank god for CJ and my Eur/Usd play
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,637
  • Dec 17, 2007 1:07pm Dec 17, 2007 1:07pm
Quoting DutchTrader
I think I'm batting .400 thank god for CJ and my Eur/Usd play
Short the euro eh? I missed the short play on that the one. There have been too many trading opportunities the past week, I'm having trouble following all of them. Combined daily trendline break with a H&S pattern breakout, what a signal.. 250 pips since that euro breakdown started.

What do you think about it now? It found support at the 38.2, and looks like today is forming a doji. I'm tempted to buy here for a retrace tomorrow. Take a look at 8/14 - 8/16 on the euro chart and compare that with the past 3 days, interesting correlation. 3 strong down days, the last ending in a doji, then a retrace.
  • #1,638
  • Dec 17, 2007 1:29pm Dec 17, 2007 1:29pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Short the euro eh? I missed the short play on that the one. There have been too many trading opportunities the past week, I'm having trouble following all of them. Combined daily trendline break with a H&S pattern breakout, what a signal.. 250 pips since that euro breakdown started.

What do you think about it now? It found support at the 38.2, and looks like today is forming a doji. I'm tempted to buy here for a retrace tomorrow. Take a look at 8/14 - 8/16 on the euro chart and compare that with the past 3 days, interesting correlation. 3 strong down days, the last ending in a doji, then a retrace.
I can see that, I expect a retrace to around 1.45/46
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,639
  • Dec 17, 2007 3:56pm Dec 17, 2007 3:56pm
Quite a tight range going into the report. 8560 looks like a good support here.
  • #1,640
  • Dec 17, 2007 5:58pm Dec 17, 2007 5:58pm
Quoting falcon232
Quite a tight range going into the report. 8560 looks like a good support here.

some major resistance at 8590...you think it will break it?...
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