Nevermind the trendline is in the way. I will wait for the breakout.
- #9,342
- Dec 11, 2007 3:58pm Dec 11, 2007 3:58pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
This post goes back to a discussion last night re: a round top on G/U that a newer great trader shared (you know who you are missy
)!
The Round Top was questioned, and I asked a few "tough" questions. If one had planned a trade around price, and not been afraid of the market due to the Fed., a short opportunity would have presented itself (and really confirmed on the next candle)...If you had gone long earlier, a profit target should have hit (again, based on price levels!). Notice, both a long and a short plan could have worked out very nicely, as long as you planned your entry based on price action confirmed by MACD.
I've posted this before, but it may be forgotten or overlooked....b/c It doesn't really seem too important (but really is!). If you are trading an indicator (i.e. entering trades based solely on MACD signal, then it is impossible to figure out your stop loss -- you have to trade the indicator not price). The indicator is what tells you to bail, not number of pips -- and for most of us, this is not nec. a good method.
So...the key is to find the price levels to enter the market based on price action and confirm the direction w/the MACD (example, if MACD is rounding, I may have a market order placed w/in the last (directly left on chart, not nec. above) Swing area w/my stop above the high (order would be for a sell because MACD direction corresponds w/that view). Why? It is because price moves up and down w/in a candle and often times (in my experience and market view), even though market bias is down, price can move up for a while -- and I want to risk as little as possible -- especially on Cable -- and maximize gains. Using price -- I can decide on an entry area and a stop! This method lets me figure out my r:r! Entries around the MA's also help us determine stops a bit more easily.....
Did I get my thoughts accross OK? Or did it just sound like confused babble?
Happy trading!
Pips
)! The Round Top was questioned, and I asked a few "tough" questions. If one had planned a trade around price, and not been afraid of the market due to the Fed., a short opportunity would have presented itself (and really confirmed on the next candle)...If you had gone long earlier, a profit target should have hit (again, based on price levels!). Notice, both a long and a short plan could have worked out very nicely, as long as you planned your entry based on price action confirmed by MACD.
I've posted this before, but it may be forgotten or overlooked....b/c It doesn't really seem too important (but really is!). If you are trading an indicator (i.e. entering trades based solely on MACD signal, then it is impossible to figure out your stop loss -- you have to trade the indicator not price). The indicator is what tells you to bail, not number of pips -- and for most of us, this is not nec. a good method.
So...the key is to find the price levels to enter the market based on price action and confirm the direction w/the MACD (example, if MACD is rounding, I may have a market order placed w/in the last (directly left on chart, not nec. above) Swing area w/my stop above the high (order would be for a sell because MACD direction corresponds w/that view). Why? It is because price moves up and down w/in a candle and often times (in my experience and market view), even though market bias is down, price can move up for a while -- and I want to risk as little as possible -- especially on Cable -- and maximize gains. Using price -- I can decide on an entry area and a stop! This method lets me figure out my r:r! Entries around the MA's also help us determine stops a bit more easily.....
Did I get my thoughts accross OK? Or did it just sound like confused babble?
Happy trading!
Pips
- #9,345
- Edited 4:08pm Dec 11, 2007 4:06pm | Edited 4:08pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
- #9,346
- Dec 11, 2007 4:08pm Dec 11, 2007 4:08pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
Hmmmm....Guess you guys won't be inviting me to any parties either, eh?:
OK....back to how we make money....it's from the charts!!!
Best,
Pips
- #9,349
- Dec 11, 2007 4:28pm Dec 11, 2007 4:28pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
- #9,350
- Dec 11, 2007 4:37pm Dec 11, 2007 4:37pm
This post goes back to a discussion last night re: a round top on G/U that a newer great trader shared (you know who you are missy
The Round Top was questioned, and I asked a few "tough" questions. If one had planned a trade around price, and not been afraid of the market due to the Fed., a short opportunity would have presented itself (and really confirmed on the next candle)...If you had gone long earlier, a profit target should have hit (again, based on price levels!). Notice, both a long and a short plan could have worked out very nicely, as long as you planned your entry based on price action confirmed by MACD.
I've posted this before, but it may be forgotten or overlooked....b/c It doesn't really seem too important (but really is!). If you are trading an indicator (i.e. entering trades based solely on MACD signal, then it is impossible to figure out your stop loss -- you have to trade the indicator not price). The indicator is what tells you to bail, not number of pips -- and for most of us, this is not nec. a good method.
So...the key is to find the price levels to enter the market based on price action and confirm the direction w/the MACD (example, if MACD is rounding, I may have a market order placed w/in the last (directly left on chart, not nec. above) Swing area w/my stop above the high (order would be for a sell because MACD direction corresponds w/that view). Why? It is because price moves up and down w/in a candle and often times (in my experience and market view), even though market bias is down, price can move up for a while -- and I want to risk as little as possible -- especially on Cable -- and maximize gains. Using price -- I can decide on an entry area and a stop! This method lets me figure out my r:r! Entries around the MA's also help us determine stops a bit more easily.....
Did I get my thoughts accross OK? Or did it just sound like confused babble?
Happy trading!
Pips
Again, thanks for all the time and effort that goes into all this!
Ben
PS - I did try to email you about this (haven't done enough posts to PM yet) but you obviously get way too many and have blocked this option!
I have a question. I noticed that all the currencies such as the EUR/USD, GDP/USD, and AUD/USD and went down, or in favor of the USD on todays announcement of the rate cut and after the rate cut itself. My question is why did the YEN go the other way today, the YEN got stronger. Did i miss something, I thought the YEN would have also dropped and not strengthen on todays news.
Why would you think the Yen would weaken? Think Carry (sell yen, buy dollars)....and think about the relationship to volatility/uncertainty and Dow reaction. (also, the violent reaction was due to the statement issued by the Fed. w/rate cut and has temporarily derailed confidence) (don't forget about repatriation into USD after carry sell which inadvertently props dollars against the European currencies....also, if you read what was posted last night re:fundies and expectation, we may have an explaination of why all G/U and E/U declined after announcement too.
No matter how you look at it, I think we would have seen this sell off today no matter what the Fed did...only the degree of movement may have varied..Do we all have headaches yet?
..Now, back to the charts!Best,
Pips
PS. Good to see you got the solution to the MACD programming issue!!! Yipppppeeeeee!!!
- #9,352
- Edited 5:07pm Dec 11, 2007 4:59pm | Edited 5:07pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Trader | 989 Posts
Hi Pips. Thanks for the post - another really helpful one! I'm also finding the posts (starting way back with Tamkras) about nesting dolls great in seeing and understanding the market better. I know from your posts that you use these a lot - any chance of seeing more posts from you on how you are using them, maybe some current examples with entry order levels, SL's, etc??
Again, thanks for all the time and effort that goes into all this!
Ben
PS - I did try to email you about this (haven't done enough posts to PM yet) but you obviously get way too many and have blocked this option!
Not a chance!
(just kidding). Yes, I'll try to get around to posting some more examples (also, do a search under any charts I've posted -- you will always see blue horizontal lines on my charts -- these are the IT area's and they almost always come into play -- added after original writing -- just looked at my old charts posted and can see if you weren't following originally, you'd scratch your head and say, huh? Def. will post some new examples later.). Funny, the other night, John (my sig. other), walked up to a G/J chart and said...Wow, look at those nesting dolls! I was floored...after a year... he just saw them (he doesn't trade) and recognized them from osmosis! So, yes, I will happily place some charts (I'm working on a yearlong project of info that I'm planning on putting into a pdf and posting, but don't know how long it will take to compile). & Mike...If you are reading this...I'm about to start looking at the info you sent...I've been "goofing" off today and haven't been too productive on my obligations.
Happy trading to all,
Pips
- #9,354
- Dec 11, 2007 6:06pm Dec 11, 2007 6:06pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
- #9,355
- Dec 11, 2007 6:09pm Dec 11, 2007 6:09pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
- #9,357
- Edited 7:37pm Dec 11, 2007 6:41pm | Edited 7:37pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
