gotya Phil,good call on that trade BTW.
Sunil
Sunil
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Disliked8:00
Market is stalling. Probably waiting for the interest announcement later today. It is interesting that the price went upwards yesterday a day before the announcement. I don’t know if I must read something into that. Is the rate going to be cut or is the move upwards suggesting a no cut and a no raise. If there is going to be a cut I think we are going to see some movement. Only my feeling. Can someone with fundamental knowledge give as insight please. Why a rise before the news.Ignored
DislikedNo, it was not a RT. Now it looks like TC.
Do you think this wasn't RT because of news or because something else?Ignored
DislikedHi Delta!
Was your bar closed? Only trust "triggers" on closed bars.
Honestly, I don't know the answer to this question -- News for Euro was good which could pull G/U up. We also have a bit of Carry Trade winding which may pull up and give G/U TC. The real news story (besides Fed) is in a few hours for both E/U and G/U -- so my guess is the TC is really b/c of G/J breakout from Tokyo close and good Euro news. Haven't been paying too much attn -- so this is only my guess.
Wishing you many great trades,
PipsIgnored
DislikedI showed this graph 5min before 8.00 so it wasn't already closed. But after 8 it was closed so it could have been RT. The price went 55 pips up, so I think this would hit S/L.
Same situation on E/U but the price went only 24 pips up. S/L with 30 or more pips could be ok.Ignored
DislikedNice call.
I waited all night for this one to hit the 89 for a quick ride to the 8. My notes were as follows:
1.4740 TP @ 1.4700
RT above 20 on MACD.
Pivot point @ 1.4697
Looking for this to go to 89, back to 8 and back up by Rate cut anouncement at 8:30 EST, will be out by then.
Set alert for 89
yadi, yadi, yadi...slept through alarm at 1.4740 and missed my entry.
Sleep is Evil
FrickIgnored
DislikedHi Again,
What other criteria would you have had at chart posting to justify the short position? Remember, the MACD supports our decision at certain points, so I'm just curious if you had a plan in place (know you were only observing, so I'm asking the "tough" questions.) Do you see a break of support or rejection of resistance yet? Is price "rounding"? Or was it only a MACD RT? (personally, I like to confirm the RT/RB pattern w/hourly chart or by a trendline drawn on the indicator w/candle patterns -- kind of my filters -- and we had a previous IT L pattern rejected w/the high of the previous candle-- which is where I'd start thinking about going short -- also I like that the MACD is showing bearish hidden divergence between previous pattern and this one -- and with all that said -- I wouldn't enter a trade to for anything long term until after tomorrow's fed meeting
-- so, it is time for sleep!
You are doing really great with your analysis, keep up the good work! Please share what you were thinking w/the RT chart. Thanks!
PipsIgnored
DislikedTo be honest I only posted this chart because i saw RT. I'm learning this method, so I firstly see only MACD formations. Have to spend some time to take into consideration other criterias.Ignored
DislikedLooking for a RT for a short, off this support turned resistence area. Resistence area around 2.0450-2.0525.Ignored
DislikedHi Phillip!
This is more info than you asked for, I think -- so sorry for that. Hope you find some of my ideas useful and we shall see how this game plays out tomorrow. Fascinating stuff!
Careful trading to all!
PipsIgnored
DislikedExcellent analysis Pips (of course). My only addition would be another FMOC function is to maintain the banking system (i.e. prevent the credit markets from locking up). They do this my "keeping money flowing". Days of easy money from BOJ and FMOC led to large excesses in "less than intelligent" lending (Subprime, Alt-A, etc). FMOC has to keep rates low to help banks with liquidity issues. Not a week's gone by recently w/o hearing of a bank/lending company/etc getting a "capital infusion" (I wish I could get one!!!). However, inflation, which itself was caused in large part from their easy money policies is not going away. Thus it's the proverbial rock and a hard place. The Rock is that lower rates, save the banks, keep liquidity, but that's what caused the problem. The hard place is trashing the USD and bringing on more inflation. Banking system right now is the FMOC's biggest concern, along with the contraction credit (people's refusal to spend money). This problem will get worse in 2008, as the foreclosure rate is still climbing.... Govt bailout on the way.....Ignored