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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #9,301
  • Dec 10, 2007 1:47pm Dec 10, 2007 1:47pm
gotya Phil,good call on that trade BTW.
Sunil
  • #9,302
  • Dec 10, 2007 1:56pm Dec 10, 2007 1:56pm
hey Ira thanks for the reply.Now i see it that way too, i guess 3 in the morning the charts get a little blury :, anyways its not about the missed pips but the ones that go in the pocket. plenty more to come.

Phillip, i understand your view of the euro TC trade. Nicely done. for me if i dont see it i dont trade it. Should have switched to one hour . anyways thanks for explaining it.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #9,303
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:06pm Dec 10, 2007 2:06pm
.
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File Type: doc written copy of daily wrapup 10 dez 07.doc   26 KB | 560 downloads
  • #9,304
  • Dec 10, 2007 4:36pm Dec 10, 2007 4:36pm
I sincerely apologize for my lack of posting or presence to this thread the last few weeks. I have few major meetings coming up that encompass about 20 years of 'data' that relates to about 250,000 individual records in an Excel/Access database and everything has to be correct. This is no fun at all believe me. So, for the next several weeks this will have control of me. I'll step in here when I can.

I hope everyone has been pulling in some pips...get ready for tomorrow...

Welcome to all of the new faces! Your time spent with this thread will pay off.

Trade well...
  • #9,305
  • Dec 11, 2007 12:53am Dec 11, 2007 12:53am
RB at 8.00 (GMT+1) ?
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  • #9,306
  • Dec 11, 2007 1:13am Dec 11, 2007 1:13am
8:00

Market is stalling. Probably waiting for the interest announcement later today. It is interesting that the price went upwards yesterday a day before the announcement. I don’t know if I must read something into that. Is the rate going to be cut or is the move upwards suggesting a no cut and a no raise. If there is going to be a cut I think we are going to see some movement. Only my feeling. Can someone with fundamental knowledge give as insight please. Why a rise before the news.
  • #9,307
  • Edited 2:19am Dec 11, 2007 1:32am | Edited 2:19am
11:00 EurUsd




Waiting for the high of recent candles to be breached as the TC given on the 8:00 candle was very little. 1 Hour confirmation given.




Entry 1.4660 On 1H confirmation.


SL 1.4627


1st TP 1.4697 at Res Line


2nd TP 1.4742 at 89SMA




Edit 1


1.4685 was reached. Set all to BE.




Edit 2


50% closed at 1.4697. There is double resistance at 1.4700. Will monitor closely and will close remainder if any weakness(candle confirmation) is evidence. Remainder still at BE.




Edit 3

SL moved to below support at 1.4695 as price breached the 1.4700 double resistance. Price is currently in a short term tri-angle. Will wait to see direction of move which are indicative upwards. Will close deal when breakout is south.


Edit4

Price have broken out of triangle upwards and has gone to 89sma. I will use the 8ema as my trailing stop to give the position a chance to go above the 89 if it wants to but close it if it shows signs of weakness. If the price breached the 89 by +25 pips I will set the stop at the 21ema and trail it at the 21ema till it gets stopped out or when there is prove of a turnaround.
  • #9,308
  • Dec 11, 2007 1:42am Dec 11, 2007 1:42am
Quoting Delta
RB at 8.00 (GMT+1) ?
No, it was not a RT. Now it looks like TC.

Do you think this wasn't RT because of news or because something else?
  • #9,309
  • Dec 11, 2007 1:50am Dec 11, 2007 1:50am
Quoting PhilsOpinion
8:00

Market is stalling. Probably waiting for the interest announcement later today. It is interesting that the price went upwards yesterday a day before the announcement. I don’t know if I must read something into that. Is the rate going to be cut or is the move upwards suggesting a no cut and a no raise. If there is going to be a cut I think we are going to see some movement. Only my feeling. Can someone with fundamental knowledge give as insight please. Why a rise before the news.

Hi Phillip!

The move upwards last night has to do (imho) w/a couple of important factors not really related to the fed dec. tomorrow. The first piece of important info (euro) is that their economy isn't showing signs of weakness due to the currency rate. Essentially, we are still seeing signs of a strong economic cycle and the ECB is still spewing hawkish rhetoric. Last night, German data (specifically trade balance) supported the view that the ECB still has room to increase rates in the Jan. 08 meeting (this is partly why we have been seeing a bit of non-correlated movements lately w/cable, I think). Also, the equity markets have been rebounding and the carry is back in favour. Since E/J is extremely popular, it's rise as also boosted E/U. (We may see a fall w/a disruption in the Dow depending on Fed actions -- even if it supports a rise in E/U, and heavy drop in E/J will most likely bring Fiber down too.

Last night's Cable Rise was expected fundamentally too. Reason #1 has to do with the stronger inflation figures. The BoE (and the ECB) have strong mandates to control inflation -- it is their number 1 priority. Because the inflation figures were higher than expected, it put the prospect of further rate cuts by the BoE in question. (most likely, the UK will have to cut rates again, but this fickle market has decided temporarily that a hold is more likely). The Carry equation also plays a decisive role in helping boost Cable too.

Lastly, Friday's Job report really raised the question of what is going on in the US economy. It paints a rosy picture (just shy of expansion) and many market participants are most likely questioning the actions of the Fed. If the numbers are as robust as they printed, then the US is most likely not going into recession -- and this would mean that the Fed will most likely NOT cut .50 bp (no recession is US positive, but it will drive up the price of oil, which devalues US dollar -- which accounts for a small increase in Cable and Euro due to Dollar Index). However, there is little doubt that the Fed will cut rates by .25 bp to keep the equity markets afloat and continue to provide liquidity to credit squeezed markets. This part is the hardest because we've had the "mortgage solution" (which really looks like funneling refis to specific lenders under the guise of "renogotiation"-- but that is a whole other issue -- and no matter how I feel about it -- it does alleviate some of the perceptions of market collapse for a little while and will put money back into the system and provide an avenue to support housing market for a while). Back to the NFP -- the NFP gave confidence to the U.S. equity markets and has boosted the closings -- again good for carry and GBP & EUR positive. Then we have the stronger UK inflation numbers -- suggestive of no cut in Jan -- again UK positive. Then to the Fed -- still a cut (US negative ) -- but how much of a cut? You would think that taking the quarter point off the table by 50% would have strengthened the dollar, but it has done just the opposite -- why??? The only thing I can think of is that the market is actually AFRAID OF A 50 BP CUT & what that means. If the Fed cuts 50% I think we will see fireworks!! My guess is the equity markets may respond illogically, and sell off, thinking the Fed is giving the heads up to more trouble on the horizon that hasn't come to light yet. Instinctively, we think this would lead to a rise in E/U & G/U -- but I think it may actually (and indirectly) strengthen the dollar via carry trade sell off.

This is more info than you asked for, I think -- so sorry for that. Hope you find some of my ideas useful and we shall see how this game plays out tomorrow. Fascinating stuff!

Careful trading to all!
Pips
  • #9,310
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:02am Dec 11, 2007 2:02am
Quoting Delta
No, it was not a RT. Now it looks like TC.

Do you think this wasn't RT because of news or because something else?
Hi Delta!

Was your bar closed? Only trust "triggers" on closed bars.

Honestly, I don't know the answer to this question -- News for Euro was good which could pull G/U up. We also have a bit of Carry Trade winding which may pull up and give G/U TC. The real news story (besides Fed) is in a few hours for both E/U and G/U -- so my guess is the TC is really b/c of G/J breakout from Tokyo close and good Euro news. Haven't been paying too much attn -- so this is only my guess.

Wishing you many great trades,
Pips
  • #9,311
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:16am Dec 11, 2007 2:16am
Anyone take this trade for an easy 20 pips?
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  • #9,312
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:38am Dec 11, 2007 2:38am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Delta!

Was your bar closed? Only trust "triggers" on closed bars.

Honestly, I don't know the answer to this question -- News for Euro was good which could pull G/U up. We also have a bit of Carry Trade winding which may pull up and give G/U TC. The real news story (besides Fed) is in a few hours for both E/U and G/U -- so my guess is the TC is really b/c of G/J breakout from Tokyo close and good Euro news. Haven't been paying too much attn -- so this is only my guess.

Wishing you many great trades,
Pips

I showed this graph 5min before 8.00 so it wasn't already closed. But after 8 it was closed so it could have been RT. The price went 55 pips up, so I think this would hit S/L.

Same situation on E/U but the price went only 24 pips up. S/L with 30 or more pips could be ok.
  • #9,313
  • Dec 11, 2007 3:20am Dec 11, 2007 3:20am
Quoting Delta
I showed this graph 5min before 8.00 so it wasn't already closed. But after 8 it was closed so it could have been RT. The price went 55 pips up, so I think this would hit S/L.

Same situation on E/U but the price went only 24 pips up. S/L with 30 or more pips could be ok.
Hi Again,

What other criteria would you have had at chart posting to justify the short position? Remember, the MACD supports our decision at certain points, so I'm just curious if you had a plan in place (know you were only observing, so I'm asking the "tough" questions.) Do you see a break of support or rejection of resistance yet? Is price "rounding"? Or was it only a MACD RT? (personally, I like to confirm the RT/RB pattern w/hourly chart or by a trendline drawn on the indicator w/candle patterns -- kind of my filters -- and we had a previous IT L pattern rejected w/the high of the previous candle-- which is where I'd start thinking about going short -- also I like that the MACD is showing bearish hidden divergence between previous pattern and this one -- and with all that said -- I wouldn't enter a trade to for anything long term until after tomorrow's fed meeting -- so, it is time for sleep!

You are doing really great with your analysis, keep up the good work! Please share what you were thinking w/the RT chart. Thanks!

Pips
  • #9,314
  • Dec 11, 2007 3:23am Dec 11, 2007 3:23am
Quoting yofatmamma
Anyone take this trade for an easy 20 pips?
Nice call.
I waited all night for this one to hit the 89 for a quick ride to the 8. My notes were as follows:
1.4740 TP @ 1.4700
RT above 20 on MACD.
Pivot point @ 1.4697
Looking for this to go to 89, back to 8 and back up by Rate cut anouncement at 8:30 EST, will be out by then.
Set alert for 89
yadi, yadi, yadi...slept through alarm at 1.4740 and missed my entry.
Sleep is Evil
Frick
  • #9,315
  • Edited 4:42am Dec 11, 2007 4:33am | Edited 4:42am
Quoting Foricks
Nice call.
I waited all night for this one to hit the 89 for a quick ride to the 8. My notes were as follows:
1.4740 TP @ 1.4700
RT above 20 on MACD.
Pivot point @ 1.4697
Looking for this to go to 89, back to 8 and back up by Rate cut anouncement at 8:30 EST, will be out by then.
Set alert for 89
yadi, yadi, yadi...slept through alarm at 1.4740 and missed my entry.
Sleep is Evil
Frick
what a pity, very aggressive trade
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #9,316
  • Dec 11, 2007 5:17am Dec 11, 2007 5:17am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Again,

What other criteria would you have had at chart posting to justify the short position? Remember, the MACD supports our decision at certain points, so I'm just curious if you had a plan in place (know you were only observing, so I'm asking the "tough" questions.) Do you see a break of support or rejection of resistance yet? Is price "rounding"? Or was it only a MACD RT? (personally, I like to confirm the RT/RB pattern w/hourly chart or by a trendline drawn on the indicator w/candle patterns -- kind of my filters -- and we had a previous IT L pattern rejected w/the high of the previous candle-- which is where I'd start thinking about going short -- also I like that the MACD is showing bearish hidden divergence between previous pattern and this one -- and with all that said -- I wouldn't enter a trade to for anything long term until after tomorrow's fed meeting -- so, it is time for sleep!

You are doing really great with your analysis, keep up the good work! Please share what you were thinking w/the RT chart. Thanks!

Pips

To be honest I only posted this chart because i saw RT. I'm learning this method, so I firstly see only MACD formations. Have to spend some time to take into consideration other criterias.
  • #9,317
  • Dec 11, 2007 5:52am Dec 11, 2007 5:52am
Quoting Delta
To be honest I only posted this chart because i saw RT. I'm learning this method, so I firstly see only MACD formations. Have to spend some time to take into consideration other criterias.
Hi Delta

Just a piece of advice from personal experience. I also started looking at the MACD signals (try and identify the various signals) and then I start looking at the price actions/rules. I got totally confused and therefore I am still struggling with it.

Personally I think it's better to start looking at the price actions/rules and then look at the MACD to confirm the setups.

I don't know what the others experts will advise you to do but just my two cents.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #9,318
  • Dec 11, 2007 8:33am Dec 11, 2007 8:33am
Quoting HipsterPipster
Looking for a RT for a short, off this support turned resistence area. Resistence area around 2.0450-2.0525.
If only we didn't have the interest rate, jumbled the MACD with the indicision and possible TC. Blah
  • #9,319
  • Edited 9:08am Dec 11, 2007 8:53am | Edited 9:08am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Phillip!
This is more info than you asked for, I think -- so sorry for that. Hope you find some of my ideas useful and we shall see how this game plays out tomorrow. Fascinating stuff!

Careful trading to all!
Pips
Excellent analysis Pips (of course). My only addition would be another FMOC function is to maintain the banking system (i.e. prevent the credit markets from locking up). They do this my "keeping money flowing". Days of easy money from BOJ and FMOC led to large excesses in "less than intelligent" lending (Subprime, Alt-A, etc). FMOC has to keep rates low to help banks with liquidity issues. Not a week's gone by recently w/o hearing of a bank/lending company/etc getting a "capital infusion" (I wish I could get one!!!). However, inflation, which itself was caused in large part from their easy money policies is not going away. Thus it's the proverbial rock and a hard place. The Rock is that lower rates, save the banks, keep liquidity, but that's what caused the problem. The hard place is trashing the USD and bringing on more inflation. Banking system right now is the FMOC's biggest concern, along with the contraction credit (people's refusal to spend money). This problem will get worse in 2008, as the foreclosure rate is still climbing.... Govt bailout on the way.....

As for the FMOC, I think they will go light (25 bp) and keep some ammo for more action in 2008. Keeps the equity markets happy, Banks happy, and has the appearance they are acting....(even though in my opinion, there's not much they can do at this point, some of these giants(citi, Bear Stearns, etc) will have to fail)...
  • #9,320
  • Dec 11, 2007 9:02am Dec 11, 2007 9:02am
Quoting EricthePip
Excellent analysis Pips (of course). My only addition would be another FMOC function is to maintain the banking system (i.e. prevent the credit markets from locking up). They do this my "keeping money flowing". Days of easy money from BOJ and FMOC led to large excesses in "less than intelligent" lending (Subprime, Alt-A, etc). FMOC has to keep rates low to help banks with liquidity issues. Not a week's gone by recently w/o hearing of a bank/lending company/etc getting a "capital infusion" (I wish I could get one!!!). However, inflation, which itself was caused in large part from their easy money policies is not going away. Thus it's the proverbial rock and a hard place. The Rock is that lower rates, save the banks, keep liquidity, but that's what caused the problem. The hard place is trashing the USD and bringing on more inflation. Banking system right now is the FMOC's biggest concern, along with the contraction credit (people's refusal to spend money). This problem will get worse in 2008, as the foreclosure rate is still climbing.... Govt bailout on the way.....
I, personally, am almost convinced that the US gov. would prefer a devalued dollar. Debt burden on the populace is about imposible to pay at current value. Just another factor to consider.
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