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Attachments: 100 Trades Analysis
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100 Trades Analysis

  • #201
  • Jan 3, 2007 8:13pm Jan 3, 2007 8:13pm
New trades

http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/6102/dailygz2.jpg

Trade #65
USDCAD
percent risk: 2%

Trade #66
GBPUSD
percent risk: 1%

Trade#67
USDJPY
percent risk: 1%

Let me revise my analysis. I had to give another look at them

NZDUSD
weekly: I see a stalled pattern which means bullish sentiment is weaker.
daily: hammer and doji developed in the last couple of days. Definitely staying out

EUROUSD
weekly: bullish after a piercing on the week of 12/17/06. Bullish sentiment
daily: I'm only to look for long this week. I entered long on this yesterday, not a good move since I entered in the middle of a trend. Didn't wait for a good entry

AUDUSD
weekly: trend began with piercing on 12/17/06. Bullish, and looking to long again
daily: wait for a bullish set up

USDCHF
weekly: past 2 weeks were harami after a bullish trend. I have to be cautious on this one
daily: broke out big but still within a range. I'm looking for a close above 1.2270 before i make a long

USDCAD
weekly: weekly is bullish after a hammer on 12/17/06. So I'm only looking to long
daily: well daily definitely broke after a hammer. So i'm in the trade

USDJPY
weekly: hammer on 12/24/06, so market is undecided
daily: bullish candle close above range of few days. So i'm long

GBPUSD
weekly: doji on 12/24/06. Undecided
daily: bearish engulfing trigger my short trade.

I notice that I am implementing somewhat of a aggressive style of trading with candlesticks. Whenever the weekly is showing weakness in a trend or indecision, I'm looking for a strong trigger on the daily to buy/sell. However, since the weekly is not confirming, my risk is 1% for this kind of aggresiveness. For trades that have weekly support patterns, I use 2%. We'll see how this goes
  • #202
  • Jan 3, 2007 8:18pm Jan 3, 2007 8:18pm
If anybody is entering a short on NZDUSD, I would feel good about that trade cause today it ended with a harami. But the long ass shadows tells me of indecision. But if you're agressive as hell you can short this sucker. But i'm waiting for further decline.
  • #203
  • Jan 3, 2007 9:55pm Jan 3, 2007 9:55pm
Quoting hilmy83
If anybody is entering a short on NZDUSD, I would feel good about that trade cause today it ended with a harami. But the long ass shadows tells me of indecision. But if you're agressive as hell you can short this sucker. But i'm waiting for further decline.
There is all kinds of bearish MACD divergence on the 4h and daily. Also the pair is reaching some resistance on the weekly and if that holds it might be forming o giant H&S. So there are quite a few reasons to short it.
Good Luck!
Stubbornly persistent
  • #204
  • Jan 4, 2007 12:40pm Jan 4, 2007 12:40pm
Candlesticks are just the bomb. God bless those japanese rice traders.

But basically what i've learned so far from my readings:

1. Whenever you encounter haramis, dojis, or other small bodies in congestion, you want to look for anything that fits engulfing patterns

2. weekly patterns are not as pretty, but once they form, the daily trigger is almost guaranteed

3. A week that ended in dojis or small bodies (stars, harami, etc.) means that the week was undecided. If you're aggressive, trade long and short whenever possible on the daily. The daily trigger will provide clues to what the current week will close with

4. reversal patterns are not necessarily reversals. I would like to call them cautionary patterns. If you encounter things like harami, dojis, hammers, etc. move your stop losses, take profits, or whatever to ensure you're prepared to what the market will do next. Don't ignore these patterns

5. Some patterns will form PERFECTLY. If you got the skills, you may wish to risk more on this trade:

for example:

http://img367.imageshack.us/img367/7669/weeklywl1.jpg

This is a weekly chart. Notice the week before the arrow was a bearish engulfing pattern. So after that week, we are only going to short this USDJPY

http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/8321/dailyvo2.jpg

Now we are looking at USDJPY daily. We see the beautiful evening star (this can also be considered a doji star which is especially deadly!!!) after the same weekly arrow. So after the first black candle formed, all you gotta say is 'i wiiiish upon a starrr' and short this b*tch! for a nice profit. In addition, if you had risked higher, you would have made a good month!

So i'm still reading my books and learning as I trade live..

peace
  • #205
  • Jan 4, 2007 6:33pm Jan 4, 2007 6:33pm
Updates of S/L's

http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/2054/dailyoj1.jpg
  • #206
  • Jan 4, 2007 6:36pm Jan 4, 2007 6:36pm
Trade #67
USDJPY
Stopped @ 118.82
Net pips: -53 pips
R: -1.00
  • #207
  • Jan 4, 2007 6:53pm Jan 4, 2007 6:53pm
New trades

http://img82.imageshack.us/img82/746/dailyoh8.jpg

damn, the asian session are moving quite fast, unusual for this time..

Trade #68
USDJPY
risk: 1%

Trade #69
NZDUSD
risk: 1%

Trade #70
USDCHF
risk: 1%

All of them are 1% risk trades because prior week for each pair have shown weakning or indecision. So being the aggressive trader that I am, I am not even gonna wait for this week to close, I'm gonna trade by the daily when there's indecision or weakness of prior week. Again, we'll see how the nfp will go....
  • #208
  • Jan 5, 2007 3:50pm Jan 5, 2007 3:50pm
i finally finished reading nison's 'japanese candlestick charting' 2nd edition. It was definitely a good read, and I had implemented some of the patterns while I was reading it and it's working very well. I even looked at chart history and have seen countless times how these patterns have worked so well both in trending AND ranging markets. So if you want a dynamic trading system, try implementing price action because it allows you to be a trend follower and range trader. (I especially love the spring and thrust technique. When I read that I was like oh man! a lot of people who pick tops and bottoms would love to learn this!)

But of course i would always refer to this book from time to time to review and see if I had miss anything.

I still have 3 other books on candlesticks that I still plan to read..

peace!

ps. i love nfp
  • #209
  • Jan 5, 2007 6:36pm Jan 5, 2007 6:36pm
Updates of S/L's

http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/3438/dailyol0.jpg
  • #210
  • Jan 5, 2007 6:40pm Jan 5, 2007 6:40pm
Trade #65
USDCAD
Stopped @ 1.1756
Net pips: 30 pips
R: 0.47

Trade #68
USDJPY
Stopped @ 119.01
Net pips: -34 pips
R: -1.00

I realized that I have made a mistake on this USDJPY trade, because I placed the wrong stop loss. I always put my s/l at the daily R1 for short or S1 for long. But obviously, I placed it at the pivot instead and the price just took it out barely! Can't do anything now, but I really gotta pay more attention, maybe it's me just coming back to trading after 2 weeks.
  • #211
  • Jan 6, 2007 11:43am Jan 6, 2007 11:43am
Quoting hilmy83
i finally finished reading nison's 'japanese candlestick charting' 2nd edition. It was definitely a good read, and I had implemented some of the patterns while I was reading it and it's working very well. I even looked at chart history and have seen countless times how these patterns have worked so well both in trending AND ranging markets. So if you want a dynamic trading system, try implementing price action because it allows you to be a trend follower and range trader. (I especially love the spring and thrust technique. When I read that I was like oh man! a lot of people who pick tops and bottoms would love to learn this!)

But of course i would always refer to this book from time to time to review and see if I had miss anything.

I still have 3 other books on candlesticks that I still plan to read..

peace!

ps. i love nfp
i just realized that 'japanese candlestick charting' is his first book!, 'beyond candlesticks' is his second.

But 'beyond candlestick' introduces kagi charts,renko, and 3 line break. I mean these are all price indicators of candlesticks...cooool
  • #212
  • Jan 7, 2007 5:26pm Jan 7, 2007 5:26pm
Markets opened so we have new S/L's

http://img165.imageshack.us/img165/1106/dailyvy0.jpg
  • #213
  • Jan 7, 2007 5:38pm Jan 7, 2007 5:38pm
Weekly Analysis

GBPUSD
last week ended in a strong bearish candle after the previous week doji. I'm only going to look for SHORT with 2% risk
daily: I see 3 crows, meaning might be further downtrend

USDJPY
last week still ended in somewhat indecision between bulls and bears. However, last week did end in a slightly bearish. So I'm going to look for LONG with 1% risk, and SHORT with 2% risk
daily:hammer last friday. I need to see further decline before shorting

USDCAD
last week ended in another strong bullish candle, but the selling pressure has increased due to long upper shadow. Looking for LONG in this par with 1% risk
daily: last friday ending in a slightly engulfing bearish candle. So that's why I'm not sure further up move deserves 2% risk

USDCHF
last week ended in strong bullish (engulfing) candle after series of weekly haramis. Looking for LONG with 2% risk
daily: closed higher, but shadows also increased showing bulls and bears fighting

AUDUSD
last week ended in a strong bearish candle (engulfing) and on top of that a strong sell pressure. It also formed double top. Looking to SHORT with 2% risk
daily:i see 3 crows, might be further downtrend

EUROUSD
last week ended in a strong bearish (engulfing) candle with selling pressure that seems to bounce off a downtrend resistance. Looking to SHORT with 2% risk
daily: strong 3 crows, further downtrend

NZDUSD
last week ended in a strong bearish (engulfing) candle . Looking to SHORT with 2% risk
daily: 2 strong bearish candles. don't know what to make of it except downtrend is strong currently
  • #214
  • Jan 8, 2007 1:12pm Jan 8, 2007 1:12pm
I think the most important things in a trading system is the stop loss and the exit.

I am figuring out clever ways to set my stop loss when I initiate my trade. Currently I'm using daily R1 for short or S1 for long. However, this is not really concrete since if I have long candle, I would use the pivot or other pivots (weekly, monthly) that maybe be within the candle's body

Although I never manually close a trade, I always move my stop loss to minimize risk and protect profits. I usually move my stop loss to next's day R1 or S1 or at other pivots where I deem safe by looking into 1 hr resistance/support.

Right now I'm thinking of using a fibo on the daily high or low. I would move my stop loss slightly above 61.8 for short or slightly below 38.2 for long. So i'm looking for a fibo indicator that uses the day's high and low to label the fib labels. But if the candle is very small, I may use pivots or previous day's fibs.

Other things I also include in my 1 hr analysis include the fractals/support resistance indicator.

If anybody can help me out, that would be great.thanks
  • #215
  • Jan 8, 2007 6:53pm Jan 8, 2007 6:53pm
Update of S/L

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/9435/dailyas6.jpg
  • #216
  • Jan 8, 2007 6:56pm Jan 8, 2007 6:56pm
Trade #66
GBPUSD
Stopped @ 1.9390
Net pips: 122 pips
R: 1.14

Trade #69
NZDUSD
Stopped @ 0.6919
Net pips: 40 pips
R: 0.78
  • #217
  • Jan 8, 2007 7:04pm Jan 8, 2007 7:04pm
New trade

http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/8161/dailyhb4.jpg

Trade #71
USDJPY
Percent risk: 1%

I took this trade because of the strong hammer formed today. This confirmed a support of the hammer formed on 1/5/07.
  • #218
  • Jan 8, 2007 11:23pm Jan 8, 2007 11:23pm
as a newbie i think your method is:
1. LUCK (every trader need it include me)
2. MOney Management
3. brave

i imagine you like a gun sentry in a harbod shoot every foe aircraft attact your harbor. Your only shoot 2% of your bullet in a single aircraft. If 2 % of bullet miss the target you forget it. and find another target with othet bullet you have. You shoot every target on air not care about bomber or fighter craft. You shoot it. Only on your head is on the end of your duty you should save remain infrastructure on your harbor and prevent yourself run out of ammo . You will count your enemy plane shoot downed is higher that building crash on your harbour. LOL

i like your trading style. Keep good trade
  • #219
  • Jan 9, 2007 11:41am Jan 9, 2007 11:41am
Quoting jito
as a newbie i think your method is:
1. LUCK (every trader need it include me)
2. MOney Management
3. brave

i imagine you like a gun sentry in a harbod shoot every foe aircraft attact your harbor. Your only shoot 2% of your bullet in a single aircraft. If 2 % of bullet miss the target you forget it. and find another target with othet bullet you have. You shoot every target on air not care about bomber or fighter craft. You shoot it. Only on your head is on the end of your duty you should save remain infrastructure on your harbor and prevent yourself run out of ammo . You will count your enemy plane shoot downed is higher that building crash on your harbour. LOL
thanks, maybe as I get more familiar with candlesticks, I'll use a rocket launcher to shoot down those planes
  • #220
  • Jan 9, 2007 6:37pm Jan 9, 2007 6:37pm
Update S/L's and new trades

http://img242.imageshack.us/img242/6011/dailycv2.jpg


Trade #72
EUROUSD
Percent risk: 2%

Trade #73
GBPUSD
Percent risk: 1%

Trade #74
NZDUSD
Percent risk: 1%

Trade #75
AUDUSD
Percent risk: 1%
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