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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #5,361
  • Dec 6, 2007 7:58am Dec 6, 2007 7:58am
Very Very Nice Analyses !
Thanks!
  • #5,362
  • Dec 7, 2007 7:44am Dec 7, 2007 7:44am
Woo Hoo NFP came out better than expected. So does that mean the USD will appreciate against this pair, and jump higher???
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,363
  • Dec 8, 2007 8:29pm Dec 8, 2007 8:29pm
Hmm 55 and 100 EMA for the 4 hr charts seem to be crossing over right about now. I believe this is a good bullish indicator. But we'll have to wait and see, hopefully it opens above 112 or near it.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,364
  • Dec 8, 2007 9:04pm Dec 8, 2007 9:04pm
carry cows at work? i dont see why uj can keep rising when usa in the brink of a recession.

i just cant see what they see to keep pushing this to the upward.
  • #5,365
  • Dec 9, 2007 1:22pm Dec 9, 2007 1:22pm
No doubt that it is at least going towards 112.56 to the least before possibly reversing and down towards 100.xx as this is wave 3 or c in weekly charts so we should see more down on this pair.
But short termm i am looking at 112.58 if it exceeds then gbp/jpy should go above 230
  • #5,366
  • Dec 9, 2007 2:58pm Dec 9, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting chimex
No doubt that it is at least going towards 112.56 to the least before possibly reversing and down towards 100.xx as this is wave 3 or c in weekly charts so we should see more down on this pair.
But short termm i am looking at 112.58 if it exceeds then gbp/jpy should go above 230
I definitly agree to your PT goal. We are currently approaching the 4 hr resistance level soon. so a down move may also be occuring this week.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,367
  • Dec 9, 2007 3:41pm Dec 9, 2007 3:41pm
I'll remain in my bullish stance here and see a test of resistance from the daily. 4 hour shows me a hh and hl with bullish tone down to 111.21.. Daily breach of 111.76 will shake some shorts..

So bull for me despite the majority..
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • #5,368
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:44am Dec 10, 2007 10:44am
Hmm I have a question. If the US is planning to drop interest rates down 25bps or 50bps, does this mean that the USD will depreciate in value, thus leading to a drop in USD/JPY???
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,369
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:53am Dec 10, 2007 10:53am
YES!!! And the great thing is that it is not priced into the USDJPY yet. (As far as I can tell). This is my post earlier today on another board, but I think it answers your question perfectly...

"This market has already baked in a 50 basis point cut. Up until early last week, the Fed was hinting at no cut at all. With the Dow slipping under 13K, they finally acquiesced (sp?) and started to hint that they would consider a cut. I expect at most they'll give a 25 basis point cut.

The trade of the week: Short the USD/JPY.

Why? It's a no-brainer. Regardless of what happens, this play will win. If the Fed does as I describe, a 25 point basis cut will leave investors in a foul-mood, because they are expecting 50. This will cause a sell off in the market. The USD/JPY is correlated to the market. So a sell if in the US market equals profit for those short the USD/JPY. Also, any cut (whether 25 or 50) will devalue the dollar, leading to further drops in the USD/JPY. The best part of this trade is the entry price. The USD/JPY has run up quite a bit in the last two weeks. If you're not in this one yet, you could be too late. Regarless of what the Fed decides to do tomorrow, this play wins either way. Mark my words!!"
  • #5,370
  • Dec 10, 2007 12:31pm Dec 10, 2007 12:31pm
bulls and bears USDJPY are pretty undecided at the time
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #5,371
  • Dec 10, 2007 6:14pm Dec 10, 2007 6:14pm
Gone very quiet in herehttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif

Wots the current views on this pair and when does the Fed news come out tomorrow?
  • #5,372
  • Dec 10, 2007 6:29pm Dec 10, 2007 6:29pm
Cut will not make the JPY stronger, more the opposite actually, read this:-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency
  • #5,373
  • Dec 10, 2007 6:39pm Dec 10, 2007 6:39pm
Market Is Behaving Really Strange Upon Extremes.

I Think Many Are Awaiting Tomorrow Fed Decition, For Me, No Trades.... Market Is Shaky.
  • #5,374
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:21pm Dec 10, 2007 9:21pm
This is going to be extrememly interesting:

Pros to the downside:
-55 Daily EMA and SMA may act as a key resistance level
-Stochastics are/have intersected and going downward
-Stochastics are overbaught
-Downside trendline resistance (October 15 and November 1 highs)
-Interest rate drop of 25bps. Decreases demand for USD, thus depreciates the USD
-Possible 112.00 Resistance

Pros to the Upside:
-Website stated below by bloomberg stating that the currency will move upwards
-Perfect order creation has been made on the 4hr charts (5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 EMA have fanned out to the upside)

This puts up a very interesting predicament. I have a long trade going on right now. But i'm thinking of exiting primarily due to the announcement. What do you guys think???
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,375
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:58pm Dec 10, 2007 10:58pm
Quoting chady250
This is going to be extrememly interesting:

Pros to the downside:
-55 Daily EMA and SMA may act as a key resistance level
-Stochastics are/have intersected and going downward
-Stochastics are overbaught
-Downside trendline resistance (October 15 and November 1 highs)
-Interest rate drop of 25bps. Decreases demand for USD, thus depreciates the USD
-Possible 112.00 Resistance

Pros to the Upside:
-Website stated below by bloomberg stating that the currency will move upwards
-Perfect order creation has been made on the 4hr charts (5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 EMA have fanned out to the upside)

This puts up a very interesting predicament. I have a long trade going on right now. But i'm thinking of exiting primarily due to the announcement. What do you guys think???
well if you are expecting it going to 112 then i think that Gj would go go near 229.
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  • #5,376
  • Dec 10, 2007 11:21pm Dec 10, 2007 11:21pm
Quoting chady250
This is going to be extrememly interesting:

Pros to the downside:
-55 Daily EMA and SMA may act as a key resistance level
-Stochastics are/have intersected and going downward
-Stochastics are overbaught
-Downside trendline resistance (October 15 and November 1 highs)
-Interest rate drop of 25bps. Decreases demand for USD, thus depreciates the USD
-Possible 112.00 Resistance

Pros to the Upside:
-Website stated below by bloomberg stating that the currency will move upwards
-Perfect order creation has been made on the 4hr charts (5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 EMA have fanned out to the upside)

This puts up a very interesting predicament. I have a long trade going on right now. But i'm thinking of exiting primarily due to the announcement. What do you guys think???
That depends on your entry point. If you're certain there'll be a rate drop, throw the technicals out the window. And believe me - you definitely do not want to be long if they lower by 50 bp (there's a non-zero chance of that). Otherwise, expect a moderate selloff in the short term, then some recovery, contingent on the important numbers to be released on Thursday and Friday.

Of course, if you got in on Nov 26, you have little to worry about anyway.
  • #5,377
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:23am Dec 11, 2007 2:23am
Quoting flanders
in long usd/jpy @ 123.25
on Dec 11, how far usd/jpy can run, until midnight?
  • #5,378
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:42am Dec 11, 2007 2:42am
Thanks for all the input. I have a long order ready to be fulfilled if the pair drops to 111.25. But lets see if that gets fulfilled tomorrow.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,379
  • Dec 11, 2007 3:00am Dec 11, 2007 3:00am
I updated my analyses for USD/JPY, GBP/JPY and USD/CHF

at: http://www.trading-fx.si/fx/sloanaliza.htm

nice trading,
Grega
  • #5,380
  • Dec 11, 2007 5:30am Dec 11, 2007 5:30am
Hi all, ive taken a short position prior to the FOMC news later today, and am considering taking another if it creeps up a little more before the news, am i correct in thinkin this pair is over-bought and due a short term drop? Esp. if we get .50% cut (but even if .25% happens)

Cheers
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