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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #9,241
  • Dec 8, 2007 8:01pm Dec 8, 2007 8:01pm
Some analysis (quickly on a Saturday evening):

EURUSD: I agree that it looks like it is in a nice channel between the 89 and 200 MA on the 4 hour. We just got a MACD zero cross on Friday. With the Pin bar on the daily, the MACD on the 4 hour looking bullish, and the 89 a good way above where we currently stand, I feel bullish on this in the early next week.


GBPUSD: On the daily we are near the bottom of a drawn channel I have, a pin bar going through the channel, and then just starting to move away from the bottom of the channel. On the 4H, it appears emotion could be building. Indecision since the bank annouced on Thursday morning. It still appears to be over sold, and the MACD has continued to become more and more positive. Right now on the 4H it is resting at the 8 EMA. I feel bullish on this currency pair, but I fear the breakout will be quick, maybe too quick to catch before it is no longer over sold.


USDJPY: The daily has started a nice uptrend, and the 4H is in a nice uptrend, boucing off of the 8 EMA. I can't believe I didn't get in on this action at all last week. It looks like it could be at a previous point of resistence on the 4H chart. I would expect this pair to come back down to the 8 EMA, and then the MACD will hopefully give us a signal to go long off the 8 EMA, or sit tight and wait for it to come down to the 21 EMA.

I need to spend more time with this tomorrow and come to better conclusions and look over the USDCHF and USDCAD.
  • #9,242
  • Dec 8, 2007 8:30pm Dec 8, 2007 8:30pm
Does anyone know of a metatrader like system for futures or stocks that is also free?

Thanks
  • #9,243
  • Dec 8, 2007 11:04pm Dec 8, 2007 11:04pm
Here is the 4HR MACD indicator for Tradestation for anyone that is interested.

The MACDY.eld works only on the USD/JPY

The 4hrMACD.ELD works on all the other major currencies except for the
USD/JPY

All you need to do is put them on top of a chart and combine all the indicators together on top of each other and then place the MACD from Tradestation on top of them. Also make sure that all the inputs are the ones designated by Phil's system. 5, 13, 1.

This indicators where created by RemingtonTJ, so thank him. I just reposted it.

Happy Pips
Attached File(s)
File Type: eld 4hrMACD.ELD   4 KB | 498 downloads
File Type: eld MACDY.ELD   4 KB | 438 downloads
  • #9,244
  • Dec 8, 2007 11:19pm Dec 8, 2007 11:19pm
Quoting alexfot
Hi, Ira! I agree with your analysis 100%, but imho given, that we are between 89 and 200, it's most likely going to oscillate between them for some time and then go up or down. And it shoild show us the direction while oscillating.
I have just found that there are Interest rates on 11th, so on Monday it may be a consolidation and a beak through after the news. Or it can show us the possible diresction before the news, so it's better to wait.
  • #9,245
  • Dec 9, 2007 6:10am Dec 9, 2007 6:10am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
remember there is a possible US rate cut on the 11th dec, last time that sent the EUR/USD into a solid trend.
doesn't any one read my posts.....
  • #9,246
  • Dec 9, 2007 7:49am Dec 9, 2007 7:49am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
doesn't any one read my posts.....
I did , and after that I checked the calendar. It's hard to say what will FOMC do, at least for me, but if they cut rate in 50, we may have an up trend. On the other hand it can be that the market has already anticipated the cut. I really haven't got a clue, maybe someone more experienced in fundies will give some light here.
  • #9,247
  • Dec 9, 2007 8:32am Dec 9, 2007 8:32am
Quoting ira
My vision of E/U for the coming week, any comments are welcome. On the daily the price has closed below 21, and it has already tested it, so it may go to the 89, but there is an interesting hammer, which is also a pin bar. The tail has gone through the 1.4600 level but the candle didn't close below it.

As for the 4 hour chart the situation here is even more interesting. We are in a down trend in a nice channel, but the price makes higher highs. Now 200 acts as support and 21 as resistance, which one will be broken? There can be two possible scenarios:
1) BOZ - short from 21 with the trend, where 1 TP area will be channel line and second 365 MA.
2) The price will close above 21, retrace to it and then there will be TC signal to the 89.
hi
i agree
even if there is not a macd signal i'going to sell between 1.4685 and 1.4707 for 4 reasons:
1-there is a nice down trendline(purple)
2-the price comes back to broken daily trendline(brown)
3-there is the 38% fibo level from high to recent low
4-i even can see a (not very dtrong but exicting) H&SH daily pattern

good luck
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #9,248
  • Dec 9, 2007 9:25am Dec 9, 2007 9:25am
Quoting hockeyforex
Does anyone know of a metatrader like system for futures or stocks that is also free?

Thanks

WHC is a russian broker which offers futures, commodities, stocks and treasuries.I wont open an account with them but the demo includes a lot of feeds you usually have to pay for.

Here is a direct download link for the demo:

http://www.metaquotes.net/files/whc/whc4setup.exe
  • #9,249
  • Dec 9, 2007 11:43am Dec 9, 2007 11:43am
Hey where do you guys get your news about interest rates and stuff. Apart from ForexFactory?
  • #9,250
  • Dec 9, 2007 12:57pm Dec 9, 2007 12:57pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Some analysis (quickly on a Saturday evening):

EURUSD: I agree that it looks like it is in a nice channel between the 89 and 200 MA on the 4 hour. We just got a MACD zero cross on Friday. With the Pin bar on the daily, the MACD on the 4 hour looking bullish, and the 89 a good way above where we currently stand, I feel bullish on this in the early next week.


GBPUSD: On the daily we are near the bottom of a drawn channel I have, a pin bar going through the channel, and then just starting to move away from the bottom of the channel. On the 4H, it appears emotion could be building. Indecision since the bank annouced on Thursday morning. It still appears to be over sold, and the MACD has continued to become more and more positive. Right now on the 4H it is resting at the 8 EMA. I feel bullish on this currency pair, but I fear the breakout will be quick, maybe too quick to catch before it is no longer over sold.


USDJPY: The daily has started a nice uptrend, and the 4H is in a nice uptrend, boucing off of the 8 EMA. I can't believe I didn't get in on this action at all last week. It looks like it could be at a previous point of resistence on the 4H chart. I would expect this pair to come back down to the 8 EMA, and then the MACD will hopefully give us a signal to go long off the 8 EMA, or sit tight and wait for it to come down to the 21 EMA.

I need to spend more time with this tomorrow and come to better conclusions and look over the USDCHF and USDCAD.
Now after looking over the charts again...

I am looking to possibly enter long trades on the EURUSD and the GBPUSD possibly early next week. Maybe on Monday morning.

USDCHF I expect this pair to move down to the 21 EMA, where I also have a trend line drawn. Here I would would expect a MACD zero bounce and a possible long. No trade until this sets up and the MACD gives a signal.


USDCAD This pair looks to be in muck. It appears to be below a trend line I have drawn on the 4H chart. The pair is well above the 89 MA on the 4H but also well below the 8 and 21 EMA. The MACD signal is bearish. Almost back to back pin bars on the Daily for Wed. and Thurs. of last week. I would expect this to move down the 89 MA, but with the US banks releasing a possible rate cut this week and as much indecision appears in this pair, I am stearing clear.


Any thoughts on my analysis?
  • #9,251
  • Dec 9, 2007 1:27pm Dec 9, 2007 1:27pm
Caution on Tuesday:

Just a note to the "I'm new to Forex and..." people:

With the interest rate statement coming out remember the following: Expect to see the spread on the USD pairs to increase to 20 pips or so when before, during, and after the interest rate decision comes out. Couple that with the good old price spikes of 30, 40 pips and you can have a range of 50, 60 or more pips in just a few seconds. If you have a position open, get ready for the volatility and your stop loss to be 'ignored'. This is dangerous stuff if your stop loss or entry order is too close to the price action. Your fill be be nowhere near your order. This past Friday when the employment numbers came out, the volatility was minimal but the spread still went to 20 pips, at least with FXDD it did. Other brokers will differ in the amount, but they all do it; it's part of the 'game'. I waited until after the news was released, spread came back down to 2 pips, I got in and made 60..after the news. I'm not recommending trading the news, I'm just recommending to be aware of the spread and the possible volatility.

"Well, we feel that the news is already priced into the market and blah blah blah...." That's fine and dandy there Mr. Harvard M.B.A. but y'ant got no control over what the man does with the price action when the news is released. Yes, we know that you are a long term outlook financial analyst with a boss suit on but you get just as nervous as we do sometimes with the markets...hmmm...not sure where all that came from....

Anyway, just be aware.
  • #9,252
  • Dec 9, 2007 1:39pm Dec 9, 2007 1:39pm
Quoting bshadroo
hi
i agree
even if there is not a macd signal i'going to sell between 1.4685 and 1.4707 for 4 reasons:
1-there is a nice down trendline(purple)
2-the price comes back to broken daily trendline(brown)
3-there is the 38% fibo level from high to recent low
4-i even can see a (not very dtrong but exicting) H&SH daily pattern

good luck
Bshadroo, i know that only your plan matters, but I want to warn you once again about trading without a signal. You can easily find bias for long at the moment too. So MACD signal can help us to distinguish the direction.
  • #9,253
  • Dec 9, 2007 3:26pm Dec 9, 2007 3:26pm
Quoting janson
WHC is a russian broker which offers futures, commodities, stocks and treasuries.I wont open an account with them but the demo includes a lot of feeds you usually have to pay for.

Here is a direct download link for the demo:

http://www.metaquotes.net/files/whc/whc4setup.exe
Thanks I will check it out
  • #9,254
  • Dec 9, 2007 5:19pm Dec 9, 2007 5:19pm
Quoting Palmer
Caution on Tuesday:

Just a note to the "I'm new to Forex and..." people:

With the interest rate statement coming out remember the following: Expect to see the spread on the USD pairs to increase to 20 pips or so when before, during, and after the interest rate decision comes out. Couple that with the good old price spikes of 30, 40 pips and you can have a range of 50, 60 or more pips in just a few seconds. If you have a position open, get ready for the volatility and your stop loss to be 'ignored'. This is dangerous stuff if your stop loss or entry order is too close to the price action. Your fill be be nowhere near your order. This past Friday when the employment numbers came out, the volatility was minimal but the spread still went to 20 pips, at least with FXDD it did. Other brokers will differ in the amount, but they all do it; it's part of the 'game'. I waited until after the news was released, spread came back down to 2 pips, I got in and made 60..after the news. I'm not recommending trading the news, I'm just recommending to be aware of the spread and the possible volatility.

"Well, we feel that the news is already priced into the market and blah blah blah...." That's fine and dandy there Mr. Harvard M.B.A. but y'ant got no control over what the man does with the price action when the news is released. Yes, we know that you are a long term outlook financial analyst with a boss suit on but you get just as nervous as we do sometimes with the markets...hmmm...not sure where all that came from....

Anyway, just be aware.
Great advise... Looks like the USD/JPY is back down to the 8MA.... Possible TC in the making?? Actually I would like to see it go down to the trend line and/or 21EMA
Attached Image
  • #9,255
  • Dec 9, 2007 8:28pm Dec 9, 2007 8:28pm
Quoting bshadroo
hi
i agree
even if there is not a macd signal i'going to sell between 1.4685 and 1.4707 for 4 reasons:
1-there is a nice down trendline(purple)
2-the price comes back to broken daily trendline(brown)
3-there is the 38% fibo level from high to recent low
4-i even can see a (not very dtrong but exicting) H&SH daily pattern

good luck
I posted this several times, Why risk this??? I can always find a BS trade if I look hard enough but again it's your money and I just get sick of watching people blow themself up trading, but again if everyone made money they would not leave any for me LOL
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,256
  • Dec 9, 2007 8:33pm Dec 9, 2007 8:33pm
Quoting ira
Bshadroo, i know that only your plan matters, but I want to warn you once again about trading without a signal. You can easily find bias for long at the moment too. So MACD signal can help us to distinguish the direction.

lol so true, Remember when that one guy would pop in here and say +500 or +300 and not post anytime where he got in at? He was full of it now he's gone or back at work. I like watching people make money but when they start to do stuff because the market is slow they will have something to do for a VERY long time. That is working for someone else and not trading the forex.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,257
  • Dec 9, 2007 8:44pm Dec 9, 2007 8:44pm
EUR/USD looks short. Going to get in at the close of this bar if it sets up right.
USD/CHF maybe but it has resistance close, BUT you can run a tight stop if you use the last 5 bars for a stop like I do.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,258
  • Dec 9, 2007 8:46pm Dec 9, 2007 8:46pm
Looks like a their may be a RB forming on usd/cad
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 113 KB
  • #9,259
  • Dec 9, 2007 8:47pm Dec 9, 2007 8:47pm
Quoting FxTex
Looks like a their may be a RB forming on usd/cad

I was looking at this as a short, look at the short term trend it's down. It may work but I would like to see a bigger spike on the macd and a little more smooth as well
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,260
  • Dec 9, 2007 8:48pm Dec 9, 2007 8:48pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
EUR/USD looks short. Going to get in at the close of this bar if it sets up right.
USD/CHF maybe but it has resistance close, BUT you can run a tight stop if you use the last 5 bars for a stop like I do.
Do you run your stop off the 4 hour or step down to the 1 hour or so?
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