Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Caution.. though for EW.

Sometimes a wave 4 correction retraces the wave 3 by 23.6% only when the main trend is very strong (but normally 38.2% or the 50-61.8%)

Now I am not that sure with wave 2 if that also applies . But I have not seen that happen yet.

So what I would do is enter at 23.6% and another one at 50-61.8%.

I bring this up because I already see a 5 wave structure on the 1 minute chart and I see a pin bar on the 15 min chart.

EG

possible unfolding if it does retrace now.

but could encounter some support at

Daily Pivot 226.63
Weekly Pivot 226.48
100 sma 15min 226.38

other than that it is free to retrace down to 50-100% of the previous rise.

EG

hi el, long time no see~
I want to know why your fib extension is listing the price also... How can I set this?

Previous assumption may have been too early.

I actually entered a short from 226.82 which I thought was initially the top of a sub wave 1.

then after seeing the 1st 5 wave structure down entered a Long trade.
So I had 2 opposing trades. However I exited the Long trade at around 10 pip loss as it went up ( that includes the 20 pip spread for my broker ).

Anyway, I still have my 2 original long trades while nursing the short trade. exited the new long trade for a 10 pip loss.( which could have been in profit by now with that rally on the 5min chart.

I should have maintained as originally planned since the main trend was Bullish. ( just another lesson learned.) Anyway I was still looking for a retrace towards that previous low and we are expecting a bearish main trend soon.

I would describe this as a very crude hedge taht I apply in my trades.

EG

Hi Carman.

Yeah, I was wondering where most of you guys went.

The Price listing on the FIB Extention is due to the kindness and expertise of Pips4life.

He Improved the original Set_Fibo_Price_Any from metaquote which only set the price for FIB Retracement Tool and not the FIB Extention Tool.

EG

Entered a new short @ 227.20

Taking that risk to partly hedge my long trades.

Short trades are 1/3 in value of my long trades.

Bias
Bearish short term
Bullish Medium term

EG

Hi EG,
Because I am busying at exam lately. How are you recently? I have read the old post and see that having very good count last few weeks.

I don't have metaquotes, is that tools only for metaquotes?

AWESOME!!! FAST 100 pips!!!! :surprised

Chart watching paid off.

Placed my trades just in time. exited with a nice profit on that one and BE with the old short. Got out too early but everything OK. I can not complain.

Entered new Long trades at the 50% retrace.

EG

Not everyday is a lucky day.

Monday saw me in profit during the asian session only to get stumped from London session to whole of Tuesday basically dis oriented with my wave counts due to the correction.

I had to give back almost all my profit from Monday.

I hope I recover and get back on my feet from here on.

EG

Hi EG,

Nice calls, and good short trade cover. Don't know about your new longs though... As it turns out, there was GBP bad news on housing prices which triggered the sell-off. I should have been aware of the news event coming but I didn't check it until the big jump down already started.

I made good pips on longs, buying in at 225.65 Ask, just 2-4 pips above the bottom! Scaled several T/P's and had a trailing stop that got hit with the big fall, but still overall, pretty good. I missed the short cover because I was expecting one final minor push higher which never came.


Just be aware that because CAD made a surprise lowering of interest rates this week, and with the news out of GB being somewhat lackluster of late, there may be more bearish bias because the GBP interest rate *could* also have a surprise lowering on Friday. Apparently a preview of the BOE decision is supposed to be available Wed (today?), according to: http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=58991


Knowing that, it makes me wonder if the big wave down from 229.32 on 11/30 which recently turned up which we thought was wave-5, may instead turn into a zigzag completion of a complex 4-wave, and now instead of going up for big-wave-5, maybe we are heading down to a new 5-wave-completion of this big C-wave down. And THEN perhaps we will start a new big-5-wave up. I really don't know, but if the market anticipates a rate-cut, that will hurt GU and therefore GJ as well... and some think GU is already heading down anyway. Even though EW waves are pure counting, I think we must keep in mind fundamental news which may set up the reversals of the waves.

Right now, I'm out and going to bed, and I'm not confident to place a trade while I sleep to go either long or short from the current price action, because of the bad GBP news. Price has just fallen almost completely back to where this uptrend started (and now way farther as I typed this). Looks like we're still working on the 5-wave down for the big-C, or ???


Pips4life


P.S. Although I haven't made any more updates to the Fibo price tool, Set_Fibo_Price_Any_V2.mq4, if I do it will be posted in my thread here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=54134

Could be Ouch for many there.

Almost included me as I entered at 50% retrace. I should have stuck to my gun and pulled trigger at 78.6 which is more often its wave 2 retrace if not the 86% level.

Whoooowww. That was NASTY. It meant that it was not a wave 2 retrace but looks like a final wave 5 down?

Now back to nursing 3 Long trades. hhhhmmmmmm

EG

Yech. Made the same mistake twice tonight. Once again, I didn't pay attention to a news event for GBP. I tried a small long with a modest S/L just BEFORE the news, and again, it was slightly negative for GBP which promptly dropped GU some more and also GJ. I would have GUESSED the news would be below expectations and stayed out of longs at the very least until after the news, had I been paying attention.

Should have gone to bed when I said I was!


Oh well... still a pretty good day overall. G'nite.

Ok I got slapped by this beast.

Stopped out on a A LONG TRADE while I manually closed the otehr 2 after it breached that wave 1 end. All for a loss.

No problem. There will be other trades to make. Just have to ensure that account does not get wiped out. Apply MM.

Looks like a sideways movement on the 5min chart which may be a wave 4 consolidation to be followed by another dip for the wave 5.

EG

Oh well!!! you win some, you lose some
This fall has forced me to re-evaluate my count. Wave 3, which I originally thought was an extended wave, turns out to be an ordinary Wave 3 without extensions.
However, i think its safe to assume that we are experiencing a double-threes complex correction.

Update post #1287
Now the question is, potential reverse zone 1? or prz 2? first one is stated in the chart, the second one is 222.20-222.00 area

good work daytek
you won the battle, but the war is yet on

I updated analyses for USD/JPY and for GBP/JPY at:

http://www.trading-fx.si/fx/sloanaliza.htm

nice trading, Grega

Trying a new count (thanx to daytek)

Not sure what this wave is yet