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Aussie Pairs

  • #1,581
  • Dec 4, 2007 6:09pm Dec 4, 2007 6:09pm
Quoting Ash
, I don't everyone was expecting a 0.25 pt cut but now market sentiment is leaning more towards 0.50pts.

Only time will tell.
Don't you mean rate hike?

Check this out: ForexFactory-News

GP
"You Can Make Money Or Excuses But You Can't Make Both!"
  • #1,582
  • Dec 4, 2007 6:10pm Dec 4, 2007 6:10pm
Quoting rudenstein
Trader KGB,

Sorry about that. Perhaps I was too bold. That thread is pretty old, would it be wise to archive part of it... if that is even possible...?

rudenstein
Not a problem! I don't know about archiving, the general threads (USD/JPY, EUR/USD, Aussie pairs, etc) are just continuous discussions. Helps keep down on the clutter.

Quote
Today (December 4th) however, the Dow took a -60 point hit causing a +200 pip move in the EUR/AUD. Interestingly, last week the Dow saw 200-300 point increases, causing only 'modest' EUR weakness against the AUD. This shows just how on edge carry traders are. So, relatively small decreases in the Dow lead to large increases in the EUR/AUD, BUT large increases in the Dow cause only small decreases in the EUR/AUD.
Interesting analysis (EUR/AUD vs Dow/carry). I don't follow E/A as often as A/U, but I should keep a closer eye on it, as a general barometer of the Aussie's global strength (mitigating the role of general USD weakness by just following the A/U pair).

Today was a particularly interesting day, with AUD, CAD, GBP all selling off (vs USD and JPY), yet the euro rallying against everything. A refreshing change to the general all for/against USD days we've been seeing predominantly this year. Are more of the carry and commodity crosses being funded originally in euros rather than dolllars? Could be the start of an interesting trend..
  • #1,583
  • Dec 4, 2007 6:13pm Dec 4, 2007 6:13pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Not a problem! I don't know about archiving, the general threads (USD/JPY, EUR/USD, Aussie pairs, etc) are just continuous discussions. Helps keep down on the clutter.

Interesting analysis (EUR/AUD vs Dow/carry). I don't follow E/A as often as A/U, but I should keep a closer eye on it, as a general barometer of the Aussie's global strength (mitigating the role of general USD weakness by just following the A/U pair).

Today was a particularly interesting day, with AUD, CAD, GBP all selling off (vs USD and JPY), yet the euro rallying against everything. A refreshing change to the general all for/against USD days we've been seeing predominantly this year. Are we seeing more of the carry and commodity crosses funded originally in euros rather than dolllars? Could be the start of an interesting trend..
Eurozone's seen as more stable, I look for greater Eur strength across the board, particularly since everyone's abandoning the Gbp, and Usd ship.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,584
  • Dec 4, 2007 6:41pm Dec 4, 2007 6:41pm
+4.3% on year vs expected 4.8%, there goes the Feb rate hike expectation for the time being. Look out below.
  • #1,585
  • Dec 4, 2007 6:43pm Dec 4, 2007 6:43pm
Quoting Globalprofits
Don't you mean rate hike?

Check this out: ForexFactory-News

GP
Sorry, I was talking about the US Fed.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #1,586
  • Dec 4, 2007 6:46pm Dec 4, 2007 6:46pm
anyone know why the hell aussie is going down when gold is "going up" and everyone is cutting rates except australia?

i am bullish on aussie. i cant see lower levels.
probably i am on denial but data actually is pretty good overall.
  • #1,587
  • Dec 4, 2007 7:03pm Dec 4, 2007 7:03pm
Quoting Trader KGB
+4.3% on year vs expected 4.8%, there goes the Feb rate hike expectation for the time being. Look out below.
Where did you get the 4.8% yoy projection from? FF only shows the quarterly expectation in the calendar...
  • #1,588
  • Dec 4, 2007 7:06pm Dec 4, 2007 7:06pm
Quoting acidguy
anyone know why the hell aussie is going down when gold is "going up" and everyone is cutting rates except australia?
The market is forward-looking, hence Aussie has been priced for expectations of 1-2 rate hikes in '08. Chances of those hikes have been diminishing from a fundamental outlook, thus we're seeing the Aussie pairs trade lower. Gold prices may help buffer the weakness, but the price of gold does not follow a close correlation with the Aussie on the short term.
  • #1,589
  • Dec 4, 2007 7:08pm Dec 4, 2007 7:08pm
Quoting Subdude
Where did you get the 4.8% yoy projection from? FF only shows the quarterly expectation in the calendar...
DJ newswires, it's also in the top story on Bloomberg.
  • #1,590
  • Dec 4, 2007 7:19pm Dec 4, 2007 7:19pm
i dont know, history is divided. australia having greater fundamentals than usa at this moment, commodity prices in the sky. usd in the ground and aussie is going go go down to the hills?

also retail investors and top analysts say they are preparing for a run above 0.90.

i really dont know what to bellieve, today price action is too confusing, we have storng sell orders executing but also strong buy orders and aussie is going like a ball.

where the thing is going this pair.
  • #1,591
  • Dec 4, 2007 7:38pm Dec 4, 2007 7:38pm
Quoting acidguy
top analysts say they are preparing for a run above 0.90.
Goldman Sach's Global Alpha fund bet big on AUD/JPY back in July, they lost tens to hundreds of millions on that play. No one will argue that the long term fundamentals on the Aussie are fantastic. But in the short term, volatility is king, and if Goldman lost dearly on it (with "superior information") we as retail traders shouldn't expect to outsmart the market (except for Dutch and his pal who reportedly made a killing).
  • #1,592
  • Dec 4, 2007 7:41pm Dec 4, 2007 7:41pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Goldman Sach's Global Alpha fund bet big on AUD/JPY back in July, they lost tens to hundreds of millions on that play. No one will argue that the long term fundamentals on the Aussie are fantastic. But in the short term, volatility is king, and if Goldman lost dearly on it (with "superior information") we as retail traders shouldn't expect to outsmart the market (except for Dutch and his pal who reportedly made a killing).

lol, thats why i am longing it, goldman said to short it.
same gold.... i dont know if their analyst are taking some kind of phsycotropical sustances.
  • #1,593
  • Dec 4, 2007 9:15pm Dec 4, 2007 9:15pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Goldman Sach's Global Alpha fund bet big on AUD/JPY back in July, they lost tens to hundreds of millions on that play. No one will argue that the long term fundamentals on the Aussie are fantastic. But in the short term, volatility is king, and if Goldman lost dearly on it (with "superior information") we as retail traders shouldn't expect to outsmart the market (except for Dutch and his pal who reportedly made a killing).
KGB,

Goldman probably tried to flatten the curve by holding too long.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,594
  • Dec 5, 2007 2:13pm Dec 5, 2007 2:13pm
Quoting DutchTrader
KGB,

Goldman probably tried to flatten the curve by holding too long.
True.

Look at the out performance of the kiwi today. With the neutral RBA and Dodge dropping rates, it's the last of the commodity currencies not at immediate risk of a softening rate environment. Reasonably hawkish comments from Bollard just now should easily put a floor on this pair. I was hoping to get in again at 7500 even as in late Nov, but will look to start building a position near these levels.
  • #1,595
  • Dec 5, 2007 2:19pm Dec 5, 2007 2:19pm
7800 easy. RBNZ stays hawkish, they have to. BTW Eur/Aud is ready to go down again.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,596
  • Dec 6, 2007 1:20pm Dec 6, 2007 1:20pm
Does anyone consider going long on eur/aud ?
  • #1,597
  • Dec 6, 2007 1:28pm Dec 6, 2007 1:28pm
Quoting MMTom
Does anyone consider going long on eur/aud ?
I considered it last month, before it went on a 1600 pip riptear.. At this level, I'd only consider neutral or short.
  • #1,598
  • Dec 6, 2007 1:59pm Dec 6, 2007 1:59pm
Quoting MMTom
Does anyone consider going long on eur/aud ?
Carry trades are possibly back since the stock market is rallying. If so, There should be a daily trend change in EUR/AUD. Have to wait till the Fed meeting and see what happens. As of right now, EUR is falling against AUD.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #1,599
  • Dec 7, 2007 8:53pm Dec 7, 2007 8:53pm
one trader on the main forexfactory page talks about getting down to .82-.84, I see .85 as possible whipsaw low, but here I am getting in with .95 as target. If CAD can get to parity I see AUD moving in a similar direction vs the USD. Assuming we get at least .25 cut on USD, AUDUSD makes for nice carry for those who want carry in commodity pair, ala CADJPY.

Wish me luck, I need a new pair of shoes...
  • #1,600
  • Dec 8, 2007 2:13pm Dec 8, 2007 2:13pm
I think the Carry is going to take a bath this upcoming week.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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